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Post by snoggle on Mar 14, 2018 0:27:04 GMT
Anyway, seeing as how Kingsway seems set to be the scene for the next culling of the fleet, I'm going to stick my neck out and predict what the ensuing changes may look like:- First off, I can foresee the 68 being withdrawn altogether. The signs have been around for a time that some at TfL, mostly on the basis of a map or, much more likely these days, a computer screen with a map on it, consider it expendable because of its overlaps with the 168 and 468. I'd suggest they try staying at Tulse Hill (say) for a few days and travel on it to Euston - while at the latter, see how many come out of the station and board it in the morning peak to go southbound, and then imagine how those people would get on if left to be picked up by the 168 or the 91. You still don't see? Oh well, none so blind as choose not to see. So, the 68 gets withdrawn, with the 468 stepping up to Waterloo and, probably, as a sop the X68 might get an extra 1 or 2 bph, maybe with slightly extended hours or, less likely, even an interpeak service. The 188 would need to be extended from Russell Square to Euston - I don't think this can be cut back because of the tourists staying in the RS area hotels travelling to Greenwich' The 91, as the only route into the area now from King's Cross/St Pancras, and the only one not to extend to Waterloo, should be safe. Apart from the 68, the other route I can definitely see vacating Kingsway is the 171, to terminate at Aldwych. I hope the 1 is safe, but I fear it may not be. The most frequent route of all in the peaks is the 521, and again one might assume it's safe, perhaps with minor trimming (and environmental issues shouldn't feature). However, I don't put it past TfL producing some sort of computer model to show the Elizabeth Line taking some 521 passengers (never mind that the 521 may be the only buses to be seen along Holborn Viaduct if you took a snapshot at certain times of the day). The 168 should be safe if I'm right about the 68. There is one other key factor to consider alongside any "Kingsway cull" and that is HS2 works at Euston. I understand the current bus station has to vanish for a number of years so TfL will be very keen to reduce the volume of services in and around Euston. If you right about the 68 vanishing then I don't see the 468 running to Euston. I'd be surprised if any overlap with the 168 stretched beyond Waterloo or Aldwych. I suspect TfL will try to keep the 59, 91 and 168 serving the Euston area from Holborn but that'll be it. I can see the 253 and 18 being cut back too. I expect something will have to happen before the end of the year.
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Post by busaholic on Mar 14, 2018 0:41:01 GMT
Anyway, seeing as how Kingsway seems set to be the scene for the next culling of the fleet, I'm going to stick my neck out and predict what the ensuing changes may look like:- First off, I can foresee the 68 being withdrawn altogether. The signs have been around for a time that some at TfL, mostly on the basis of a map or, much more likely these days, a computer screen with a map on it, consider it expendable because of its overlaps with the 168 and 468. I'd suggest they try staying at Tulse Hill (say) for a few days and travel on it to Euston - while at the latter, see how many come out of the station and board it in the morning peak to go southbound, and then imagine how those people would get on if left to be picked up by the 168 or the 91. You still don't see? Oh well, none so blind as choose not to see. So, the 68 gets withdrawn, with the 468 stepping up to Waterloo and, probably, as a sop the X68 might get an extra 1 or 2 bph, maybe with slightly extended hours or, less likely, even an interpeak service. The 188 would need to be extended from Russell Square to Euston - I don't think this can be cut back because of the tourists staying in the RS area hotels travelling to Greenwich' The 91, as the only route into the area now from King's Cross/St Pancras, and the only one not to extend to Waterloo, should be safe. Apart from the 68, the other route I can definitely see vacating Kingsway is the 171, to terminate at Aldwych. I hope the 1 is safe, but I fear it may not be. The most frequent route of all in the peaks is the 521, and again one might assume it's safe, perhaps with minor trimming (and environmental issues shouldn't feature). However, I don't put it past TfL producing some sort of computer model to show the Elizabeth Line taking some 521 passengers (never mind that the 521 may be the only buses to be seen along Holborn Viaduct if you took a snapshot at certain times of the day). The 168 should be safe if I'm right about the 68. There is one other key factor to consider alongside any "Kingsway cull" and that is HS2 works at Euston. I understand the current bus station has to vanish for a number of years so TfL will be very keen to reduce the volume of services in and around Euston. If you right about the 68 vanishing then I don't see the 468 running to Euston. I'd be surprised if any overlap with the 168 stretched beyond Waterloo or Aldwych. I suspect TfL will try to keep the 59, 91 and 168 serving the Euston area from Holborn but that'll be it. I can see the 253 and 18 being cut back too. I expect something will have to happen before the end of the year. I'd forgotten the 59! I wasn't sure of the Euston timescale, but I agree there's no chance of the 468 reaching there, and I think the only overlap with 168 would be Waterloo to Elephant. The 253 is an odd one - just 'operational convenience' it terminating there rather than its old Warren Street. There again, 3 out of 4 18s used to turn at Baker Street: the extension of them all to Euston was probably the biggest overkill of all in recent history. I used to catch the 18 from Euston Road to Cannon Street back in the day and they were pretty infrequent: never saw two together.
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Post by vjaska on Mar 14, 2018 1:35:38 GMT
Anyway, seeing as how Kingsway seems set to be the scene for the next culling of the fleet, I'm going to stick my neck out and predict what the ensuing changes may look like:- First off, I can foresee the 68 being withdrawn altogether. The signs have been around for a time that some at TfL, mostly on the basis of a map or, much more likely these days, a computer screen with a map on it, consider it expendable because of its overlaps with the 168 and 468. I'd suggest they try staying at Tulse Hill (say) for a few days and travel on it to Euston - while at the latter, see how many come out of the station and board it in the morning peak to go southbound, and then imagine how those people would get on if left to be picked up by the 168 or the 91. You still don't see? Oh well, none so blind as choose not to see. So, the 68 gets withdrawn, with the 468 stepping up to Waterloo and, probably, as a sop the X68 might get an extra 1 or 2 bph, maybe with slightly extended hours or, less likely, even an interpeak service. The 188 would need to be extended from Russell Square to Euston - I don't think this can be cut back because of the tourists staying in the RS area hotels travelling to Greenwich' The 91, as the only route into the area now from King's Cross/St Pancras, and the only one not to extend to Waterloo, should be safe. Apart from the 68, the other route I can definitely see vacating Kingsway is the 171, to terminate at Aldwych. I hope the 1 is safe, but I fear it may not be. The most frequent route of all in the peaks is the 521, and again one might assume it's safe, perhaps with minor trimming (and environmental issues shouldn't feature). However, I don't put it past TfL producing some sort of computer model to show the Elizabeth Line taking some 521 passengers (never mind that the 521 may be the only buses to be seen along Holborn Viaduct if you took a snapshot at certain times of the day). The 168 should be safe if I'm right about the 68. There is one other key factor to consider alongside any "Kingsway cull" and that is HS2 works at Euston. I understand the current bus station has to vanish for a number of years so TfL will be very keen to reduce the volume of services in and around Euston. If you right about the 68 vanishing then I don't see the 468 running to Euston. I'd be surprised if any overlap with the 168 stretched beyond Waterloo or Aldwych. I suspect TfL will try to keep the 59, 91 and 168 serving the Euston area from Holborn but that'll be it. I can see the 253 and 18 being cut back too. I expect something will have to happen before the end of the year. In any event, running the 468 any further than Waterloo would completely cripple the route given the added length & congestion involved - even running to Waterloo could potentially be tricky
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Post by busaholic on Mar 14, 2018 21:37:22 GMT
There is one other key factor to consider alongside any "Kingsway cull" and that is HS2 works at Euston. I understand the current bus station has to vanish for a number of years so TfL will be very keen to reduce the volume of services in and around Euston. If you right about the 68 vanishing then I don't see the 468 running to Euston. I'd be surprised if any overlap with the 168 stretched beyond Waterloo or Aldwych. I suspect TfL will try to keep the 59, 91 and 168 serving the Euston area from Holborn but that'll be it. I can see the 253 and 18 being cut back too. I expect something will have to happen before the end of the year. In any event, running the 468 any further than Waterloo would completely cripple the route given the added length & congestion involved - even running to Waterloo could potentially be tricky I do think it would be imperative, though, in the event of a 68 withdrawal.
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Post by twobellstogo on Mar 18, 2018 8:00:19 GMT
For what it’s worth, I think the 68 will survive. If I were to guess, it will be the 188 that gets the biggest cut - there have been proposals to chop it right back to Elephant, mentioned in proposed changes in association with the Convoy’s Wharf development : and I think the opportunity to do that will be taken. The 68 can then take the 188’s stand in Russell Square. Can also see the RV1 falling back to Waterloo and another Kingsway route taking the Covent Garden stand - possibly the 171.
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Post by sid on Mar 18, 2018 8:24:56 GMT
For what it’s worth, I think the 68 will survive. If I were to guess, it will be the 188 that gets the biggest cut - there have been proposals to chop it right back to Elephant, mentioned in proposed changes in association with the Convoy’s Wharf development : and I think the opportunity to do that will be taken. The 68 can then take the 188’s stand in Russell Square. Can also see the RV1 falling back to Waterloo and another Kingsway route taking the Covent Garden stand - possibly the 171. I wouldn't be surprised to see the RV1 withdrawn completely, maybe the 115 extended to Blackfriars in part replacement? With the forthcoming closure of Euston bus station you could well be right about the 68 and 188 and there is an awful lot of fresh air being carried over Waterloo Bridge outside of peak hours. I could also see the 476 being cut back to Islington or even withdrawn completely?
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Post by busaholic on Mar 18, 2018 16:07:53 GMT
For what it’s worth, I think the 68 will survive. If I were to guess, it will be the 188 that gets the biggest cut - there have been proposals to chop it right back to Elephant, mentioned in proposed changes in association with the Convoy’s Wharf development : and I think the opportunity to do that will be taken. The 68 can then take the 188’s stand in Russell Square. Can also see the RV1 falling back to Waterloo and another Kingsway route taking the Covent Garden stand - possibly the 171. I wouldn't be surprised to see the RV1 withdrawn completely, maybe the 115 extended to Blackfriars in part replacement? With the forthcoming closure of Euston bus station you could well be right about the 68 and 188 and there is an awful lot of fresh air being carried over Waterloo Bridge outside of peak hours. I could also see the 476 being cut back to Islington or even withdrawn completely? I'm rapidly getting the impression from the various contributions that everyone seems to assume (maybe for good reasons) that any route currently terminating at Euston Bus Station will get cut back (or whole route withdrawn, as I suggested might happen with the 68). Can this really be the case? I know the current terminators each come from a different direction, but surely such a massive change in connectivity in one go couldn't be officially sanctioned....oh, hang on it's about to happen down the road (or street)
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Post by sid on Mar 18, 2018 21:33:02 GMT
I wouldn't be surprised to see the RV1 withdrawn completely, maybe the 115 extended to Blackfriars in part replacement? With the forthcoming closure of Euston bus station you could well be right about the 68 and 188 and there is an awful lot of fresh air being carried over Waterloo Bridge outside of peak hours. I could also see the 476 being cut back to Islington or even withdrawn completely? I'm rapidly getting the impression from the various contributions that everyone seems to assume (maybe for good reasons) that any route currently terminating at Euston Bus Station will get cut back (or whole route withdrawn, as I suggested might happen with the 68). Can this really be the case? I know the current terminators each come from a different direction, but surely such a massive change in connectivity in one go couldn't be officially sanctioned....oh, hang on it's about to happen down the road (or street) As I understand it Euston bus station will be closed when HS2 work commences? Presumably buses towards Kings Cross will stop on Euston Road like they used to do? The 18 perhaps standing in Grafton Way? The 68 extended to Mornington Crescent? The 253 curtailed at Mornington Crescent and the 476 at Islington?
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Post by southlondonbus on Mar 18, 2018 22:34:10 GMT
Maybe with the 415 providing some extra capacity down the Old Kent Road the 168 could get diverted to Camberwell to maintain links on the 68. The 468 maybe extended to Waterloo and renumbered 68 in the spirit of the 13.
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Post by vjaska on Mar 18, 2018 23:04:59 GMT
Maybe with the 415 providing some extra capacity down the Old Kent Road the 168 could get diverted to Camberwell to maintain links on the 68. The 468 maybe extended to Waterloo and renumbered 68 in the spirit of the 13. I honestly don't see the 68 being withdrawn and nor should it given how useful it is at maintaining capacity along the corridor right through to West Norwood. It will probably be cut back to Russell Square during the works. The 168 wouldn't be able to terminate at Camberwell as there is only space for the 148 and there are no other stands in the area other than inside Q or WL which I can't see happening. As for the renumbering thing, the example of the 13 won't happen everywhere and in fact, I'd go as far to say it will be a one off.
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Post by snoggle on Mar 18, 2018 23:14:38 GMT
Maybe with the 415 providing some extra capacity down the Old Kent Road the 168 could get diverted to Camberwell to maintain links on the 68. The 468 maybe extended to Waterloo and renumbered 68 in the spirit of the 13. I may be wrong, as I don't get to the Old Kent Road very often, but I thought the link the 168 provides from there through Waterloo and up past Holborn was pretty well used across the day and especially in the peaks. Given the lack of a tube on the Old Kent Road and the local housing density there is more than enough bus demand to support links that veer off in all sorts of directions without forcing people to change at Elephant and Castle which is already an extremely busy transport hub. If the 168's extension hadn't worked I'd have expected TfL to have pulled it a fair while ago but they haven't done so.
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Post by snoggle on Mar 18, 2018 23:29:26 GMT
I'm rapidly getting the impression from the various contributions that everyone seems to assume (maybe for good reasons) that any route currently terminating at Euston Bus Station will get cut back (or whole route withdrawn, as I suggested might happen with the 68). Can this really be the case? I know the current terminators each come from a different direction, but surely such a massive change in connectivity in one go couldn't be officially sanctioned....oh, hang on it's about to happen down the road (or street) I think one or two forum members have "axe" as their middle name but I don't think people are being unduly pessimistic. There are three factors to bear in mind with the HS2 works - 1. Loss of the bus station for several years. That affects several terminating services and all are high frequency. 2. Highway restrictions on the Euston Road will cause enormous disruption until traffic redistributes itself but that may take some time given the CC / ULE zones are just to the south. 3. The area around Euston will be subject to a lot of lorry / site traffic with likely severe congestion on many roads to the north / south / east / west. For example the big bridge on Hampstead Road that crosses Euston's approach tracks will be completely rebuilt by HS2. That will take years with the road layout changing multiple times. We know from recent experience that TfL's approach will be to try to keep buses out of the area if they possibly can to reduce their exposure to the congestion. Routes that cannot be diverted away will no doubt end up with much reduced frequencies to try to provide more running time within a fixed PVR. The days of TfL chucking money for extra vehicles to cope with congestion are gone. It may be the case that the 68 isn't severely cut back BUT it will be affected as will every single route that touches Kings Cross, Warren St, Mornington Crescent and Russell Square. There are limits on stand space at all of those points so something has to give on some routes to try to cope. I can see the 14 being cut way back to free up space for the 18 to terminate at Warren St for example. They are broadly similar in frequency and have similar stand requirements. I can see the 29 being reduced in frequency south of Mornington Crescent and the 253 not reaching Euston at all for several years. I'd also not be shocked to see the 59 be reduced in frequency north of Holborn (it's very busy south of there) or even being cut permanently at Holborn with the 91 being left to struggle through. There are a lot of permutations that can be created but it's clear that whole Euston - Holborn - Waterloo corridor has the axe poised above it (sadly).
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Post by sid on Mar 18, 2018 23:37:52 GMT
Maybe with the 415 providing some extra capacity down the Old Kent Road the 168 could get diverted to Camberwell to maintain links on the 68. The 468 maybe extended to Waterloo and renumbered 68 in the spirit of the 13. Quite possibly, a lot of this capacity is only justified at peak times. I think the peak hour capacity is needed between Waterloo and Euston but that's about it, plenty of fresh air in evidence at other times.
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Post by rhys on Mar 19, 2018 7:50:45 GMT
Maybe with the 415 providing some extra capacity down the Old Kent Road the 168 could get diverted to Camberwell to maintain links on the 68. The 468 maybe extended to Waterloo and renumbered 68 in the spirit of the 13. I honestly don't see the 68 being withdrawn and nor should it given how useful it is at maintaining capacity along the corridor right through to West Norwood. It will probably be cut back to Russell Square during the works. The 168 wouldn't be able to terminate at Camberwell as there is only space for the 148 and there are no other stands in the area other than inside Q or WL which I can't see happening. As for the renumbering thing, the example of the 13 won't happen everywhere and in fact, I'd go as far to say it will be a one off. I agree, there is a high demand for the 68, especially in the southern regions. It’s one route that proves to be very useful in connecting areas like Herne Hill and West Norwood to places like Waterloo, Aldwych and Holborn. Now, I personally think many who are suggesting it’s withdrawal are not even locals to the route. I personally cannot see the 68 being withdrawn. Even during off peak hours, the 68 does carry a little more than ‘fresh air’. More importantly, if such as case were to happen, I agree with you, I cannot see the 468 being altered. The 468 is one of London’s longest non-express routes, at 12 miles. Any form of extension could potentially throw its reliability out the window. That’s just my opinion, though.
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Post by sid on Mar 19, 2018 8:05:26 GMT
I honestly don't see the 68 being withdrawn and nor should it given how useful it is at maintaining capacity along the corridor right through to West Norwood. It will probably be cut back to Russell Square during the works. The 168 wouldn't be able to terminate at Camberwell as there is only space for the 148 and there are no other stands in the area other than inside Q or WL which I can't see happening. As for the renumbering thing, the example of the 13 won't happen everywhere and in fact, I'd go as far to say it will be a one off. I agree, there is a high demand for the 68, especially in the southern regions. It’s one route that proves to be very useful in connecting areas like Herne Hill and West Norwood to places like Waterloo, Aldwych and Holborn. Now, I personally think many who are suggesting it’s withdrawal are not even locals to the route. I personally cannot see the 68 being withdrawn. Even during off peak hours, the 68 does carry a little more than ‘fresh air’. More importantly, if such as case were to happen, I agree with you, I cannot see the 468 being altered. The 468 is one of London’s longest non-express routes, at 12 miles. Any form of extension could potentially throw its reliability out the window. That’s just my opinion, though. I could quite conceivably see the 68 reduced to a Mon-Fri peak hour only route, the links you mentioned are also provided by the 171 and 468. There is probably a case for a slight frequency increase on the 468 to compensate? Just my opinion of course.
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