Extra trains for Jub / Nor cancelled?

[snoggle]

Clearly this is emerging news from ASLEF via the BBC. Tom Edwards of BBC London has tweeted an ASLEF statement saying that the orders for new Jubilee / Northern Line trains are "paused" which has been interpreted as "cancelled".

What is interesting here is that the Q1 (so several months old) Investment Report has commentary for both the Jub and Nor upgrades but the works are fairly modest in nature with some signalling changes brought forward at West Hampstead to allow a 31 tph timetable to be introduced in 2019. However the same document also has "2 October" as the milestone date for ordering the new trains for these two lines. That's clearly been missed as no authority papers have come forward to this week's Investment Cttee seeking the requisite financial and procurement authorities to place an order. It is usual that such papers go to the Investment Cttee first and then to the Board which is imminent.

We must wait to see whether TfL / City Hall go into immediate "ASLEF are wrong" mode and reaffirm the project's status or whether a more muted response emerges.


It would be best for anyone replying not to go into instant speculation mode or suggesting the world will end if we don't get new trains etc etc. I share this as "news" and clearly the story will no doubt develop.

And here is something a bit more official from Railway Gazette.

www.metro-report.com/news/metro/single-view/view/london-underground-capacity-upgrade-programme-paused.html



I have searched and searched for an appropriate existing open thread on the J&N upgrades but couldn't see one hence why I've created this new thread.

[snowman]

I thought it had gone quiet, nothing on the agenda for Programmes and Investment committee meeting on Friday 13th

There should be an agenda for the Finance committee on 18th uploaded in next few hours, should give an update on the state of TfLs monetary hole

My personal guess is a small batch of add on trains were priced far higher than expected. Probably explains the rush to order the extra Overground trains (in P&I cttee) before priced option expires.

[snoggle]

Oct 10, 2017 13:41:05 GMT snowman said:

I thought it had gone quiet, nothing on the agenda for Programmes and Investment committee meeting on Friday 13th

There should be an agenda for the Finance committee on 18th uploaded in next few hours, should give an update on the state of TfLs monetary hole

My personal guess is a small batch of add on trains were priced far higher than expected. Probably explains the rush to order the extra Overground trains (in P&I cttee) before priced option expires.

Well I have been sceptical about this whole upgrade for a while because of the "never emerging" funding authority papers. I've seen this so many times before from the inside that I can recognise the warning signs. I've run project budgets and been a LU client responsible for funding authorities so knows what goes on. Even many years on, the modus operandi of LU hasn't changed much.

I agree that it is most likely that the rolling stock bid prices have come in either way too high and / or laden with risk and exclusions to be remotely palatable to TfL. Given the Northern Line PFI train supply contract is, I think, still in place for now then that adds a further complication over maintenance where Alstom have an upper hand in inflating the whole life cost proposition for any competitors bidding to supply the new trains. The other potential factor is that Thales may not be playing ball on signalling upgrade costs to handle the higher tph given they're the incumbent on both Jubilee and Northern Lines.

All the talk of this being "paused" is, of course, nonsense. If it's unaffordable now it can only become more unaffordable in future as TfL run out of money by 2021 and can't take on any extra borrowing due to govt limits and risks to their credit rating. The end of the current Mayor's tenure in 2020 sees the budget leveraged to the hilt in terms of borrowing.

I really must watch the webcast of the recent Budget Cttee where the Assembly had TfL in over their capital spending. Wonder what was said that might now come and bite people on the posterior?