|
Post by sid on Dec 11, 2018 15:18:55 GMT
With apologies to sid who I know doesn't enjoy this sort of thing, others might like this old Smith and Jones sketch that always comes to mind at points like this. Regardless of whether I like the video or not it's just a fact of life that projects on this scale do often over run, disappointing but life goes on.
|
|
|
Post by snoggle on Dec 11, 2018 16:39:06 GMT
This misses the point somewhat. While we will still have a nice new railway at the end of this, there are ramifications that go well beyond that. TfL and the Mayor have suffered reputational damage from what appears to be a textbook project management failure to understand red flags. TfL has a hole in its budget that will lead to projects being deferred or scrapped, and there are indications that the bus network will suffer. The chances of Crossrail 2 have just taken a big dip, as the funding is pushed back and the Treasury loses faith in the ability to deliver. At this point, no-one can say when Crossrail will open. It emboldens Northern mayors to oppose support for London projects and the anti-HS2 lot get more bullets to fire. London Reconnections are compiling a more forensic analysis but for the short term, fiasco seems perfectly reasonable to me. I agree with much of what you say. Having looked at various Crossrail papers that TfL have released I am pretty gobsmacked that as late as July there was still a level of believe it could still somehow "all come right on the night". It clearly couldn't if you even bothered to go for a walk around Central London. The joint slippage by Siemens and Bombardier on the signalling interface should have been ringing alarm bells long ago. Instead the base programme dates just kept being moved! That's delusional. How someone didn't call them out on this I know not. Where I disagree slightly is the "Northern mayors" point. If the government had just tossed cash at London with no need to repay it then fair enough - they could moan. What has happened is that not an extra penny of government grant has been handed over. OK it's loan finance (and govt is best placed to raise that at lowest cost) but London has to repay it. That means the Crossrail levy runs for years (decades??) longer than planned. It's planned use for CR2 must now be out of the window. Schemes that could have been funded via Community Infrastructure Levy income are now dead as CIL income will go to repay Crossrail loans. Furthermore the GLA has culled £100m of schemes to part fund the extra Crossrail costs. Northern Mayors might do well to keep their mouths shut and instead learn a possible salutory lesson as to what government would do to them in terms of cost overruns on any local infrastructure schemes. I don't see northern Mayors or taxpayers being asked to fork out extra money for Network Rail's botched electrification schemes in the North West or the recently completed Ordsall Curve. Sure they've suffered congestion and delays but then so has almost every rail passenger in the country for a wide variety of reasons included late running large projects and strikes over railway staffing practices. Similarly central government has funded a lot of the modernisation work on the Tyne and Wear Metro because Nexus and North East local authorities simply don't have the resources / revenue base to leverage the size of money that London can. I'm not saying that is "wrong" - just highlighting the fact that the moan merchants aren't really comparing like with like - the reasons for that stretch back many decades, even centuries as to why the UK has placed a lot of emphasis on London and South East to the relative detriment of other regions. Shifting a few quid around for railways doesn't fix any of that legacy.
|
|
|
Post by danorak on Dec 11, 2018 17:13:14 GMT
This misses the point somewhat. While we will still have a nice new railway at the end of this, there are ramifications that go well beyond that. TfL and the Mayor have suffered reputational damage from what appears to be a textbook project management failure to understand red flags. TfL has a hole in its budget that will lead to projects being deferred or scrapped, and there are indications that the bus network will suffer. The chances of Crossrail 2 have just taken a big dip, as the funding is pushed back and the Treasury loses faith in the ability to deliver. At this point, no-one can say when Crossrail will open. It emboldens Northern mayors to oppose support for London projects and the anti-HS2 lot get more bullets to fire. London Reconnections are compiling a more forensic analysis but for the short term, fiasco seems perfectly reasonable to me. I agree with much of what you say. Having looked at various Crossrail papers that TfL have released I am pretty gobsmacked that as late as July there was still a level of believe it could still somehow "all come right on the night". It clearly couldn't if you even bothered to go for a walk around Central London. The joint slippage by Siemens and Bombardier on the signalling interface should have been ringing alarm bells long ago. Instead the base programme dates just kept being moved! That's delusional. How someone didn't call them out on this I know not. Where I disagree slightly is the "Northern mayors" point. If the government had just tossed cash at London with no need to repay it then fair enough - they could moan. What has happened is that not an extra penny of government grant has been handed over. OK it's loan finance (and govt is best placed to raise that at lowest cost) but London has to repay it. That means the Crossrail levy runs for years (decades??) longer than planned. It's planned use for CR2 must now be out of the window. Schemes that could have been funded via Community Infrastructure Levy income are now dead as CIL income will go to repay Crossrail loans. Furthermore the GLA has culled £100m of schemes to part fund the extra Crossrail costs. Northern Mayors might do well to keep their mouths shut and instead learn a possible salutory lesson as to what government would do to them in terms of cost overruns on any local infrastructure schemes. I don't see northern Mayors or taxpayers being asked to fork out extra money for Network Rail's botched electrification schemes in the North West or the recently completed Ordsall Curve. Sure they've suffered congestion and delays but then so has almost every rail passenger in the country for a wide variety of reasons included late running large projects and strikes over railway staffing practices. Similarly central government has funded a lot of the modernisation work on the Tyne and Wear Metro because Nexus and North East local authorities simply don't have the resources / revenue base to leverage the size of money that London can. I'm not saying that is "wrong" - just highlighting the fact that the moan merchants aren't really comparing like with like - the reasons for that stretch back many decades, even centuries as to why the UK has placed a lot of emphasis on London and South East to the relative detriment of other regions. Shifting a few quid around for railways doesn't fix any of that legacy. I take your point re the Northern mayors bit but unfortunately, these days we seem to be in a bit of a 'post-truth' world. You and I both know the truth of how the overrun is being funded but you only have to read the rubbish coming from Andy Burnham at the moment to know that no grievance, real or otherwise, will go unexploited. If he can portray this as a bailout for London for his own local political ends, that's what he'll do - and is doing.
|
|
|
Post by danorak on Dec 11, 2018 17:18:00 GMT
With apologies to sid who I know doesn't enjoy this sort of thing, others might like this old Smith and Jones sketch that always comes to mind at points like this. Regardless of whether I like the video or not it's just a fact of life that projects on this scale do often over run, disappointing but life goes on. I shall try putting that on the risk register next time I'm in the office, but I suspect I'll get pretty short shrift from senior management
|
|
|
Post by snoggle on Dec 11, 2018 17:44:02 GMT
With apologies to sid who I know doesn't enjoy this sort of thing, others might like this old Smith and Jones sketch that always comes to mind at points like this. The irony is that part of that sketch is apparently true for Crossrail. A lot of the contractors' staff have walked off to other jobs like HS2 and the Thames Tunnel and Spurs new stadium. Therefore work has stopped in certain trades and I suspect some of the increased cost being incurred is trying to get skilled and scarce resource back on to Crossrail. The only way that'll happen is waving ££££s at people. There is also a rumour that the leaky feeder cabling for the GSM-R comms system in the tunnels has been incorrectly installed and has to be replaced. GSM-R installation is shown as being late on the last few Mayoral briefings. It also explains what the "routeway" (i.e. where the trains will run) is still showing as incomplete and partly why train testing has not achieved the levels required.
|
|
|
Post by snowman on Dec 11, 2018 20:00:37 GMT
|
|
|
Post by snoggle on Dec 11, 2018 21:23:16 GMT
"Let us at GWR's POT OF MONEY and LET US AT IT *NOW*"
|
|
|
Post by snoggle on Dec 11, 2018 21:38:29 GMT
I do wonder how there is around £1.4 Bn of work still to be completed, for a line that was supposed to open yesterday. All the tunnelling, all the tracklaying, all the electrification already exists, majority of trains delivered Many of the stations are ready (a few need bit more finishing) although Bond Street (East) is few months late A number of over Station developments are continuing but these are generally financed elsewhere by the owners of these new buildings The upgrades to existing stations are part of a £2 - 2.5 bn Network Rail upgrade that is not part of the TfL funding pot, and many of the expensive improvements are already done, new track, Acton diveunder etc. It’s mainly the late addition of accessibility to some minor stations in the West that is continuing. The biggest delay seems to be testing and signalling and getting the train software to work properly and interface with signals, but I cannot work out how to spend a billion on testing and software tweaks. Reading between the lines I think there are a lot of issues. - loss of skilled labour causing work to slow or stop. Getting it back is going to cost £££s - the route is not finished. I've seen comments that say the leaky feeder cabling for GSM-R comms in the tunnels is wrongly installed and has to be ripped out and reinstalled. - there are clear problems with both Siemens and Bombardier in terms of getting the track to train ATO signalling working. - some stations are nowhere near finished. They were still installing lifts and escalators last Summer when they should have been finished, commissioned, tested and handed over. - there are M&E fit out delays at Paddington. That means a lot of system checking and integration hasn't happened. - there has been a progressive move to scale down the Crossrail project team despite the work not being finished. I suspect they may need to recruit temporary labour / consultants to get stuff finished. That costs money and productivity will be lower than expected. - project assurance activities are running late and these are crucial to getting the railway into service. - testing productivity is dependent on Siemens and Bombardier performing but has also been behind schedule for a long time. - TfL funded / procured station works on the Shenfield line are way late. There is negligible progress on accessibility works out west. - the situation in getting ETCS working in the Heathrow tunnels to allow class 345s is confused. The weekly updates had a target date for a new software build of October this year. This cuts across what I've heard about 345s not being feasible until the BR ATP kit is removed from the Heathrow tunnel which requires HEX 332s to go and be replaced by surplus 387s. - there may also be multi million pound claims across multiple contracts (don't know if these would be budgeted here or elsewhere) I agree with you that the above probably doesn't add up to £1.4bn but I think the numbers do include some very pessimistic assumptions on costs. The TfL business plan seems to assume a start date of next Autumn so the numbers in there could go backwards again.
|
|
|
Post by snoggle on Dec 11, 2018 22:54:40 GMT
Yes, there is a knock on effect, and will probably involve extensions and changes of dates. Clearly the date of transfer from HEX and GWR to Elizabeth line may change (or might not, in same way Crossrail took over the 315s on Shenfield line). Unclear yet. The HEX stock was due to go off lease, but clearly if the 387s are not releaced by 345s then they are not available (they need some interior reconfiguring for airport services) I think the Newbury line electrification has just been completed which will use some 387s soon. From memory there are 6 spare 387s (in short term use on Fenchurch Street services, pending arrival of 6 x 10 car Aventra in 2021), don't know where these go long term. The c2c 387s were leased to them by Govia so I wouldn't be surprised to see them returned there. Weren't the HeX 387s meant to come from 769s joining the fleet? Yes - that is my understanding. 769s (or even 319s in the short term) come along and free up 387s. They go for refit and then oust 332s from HEX. This also allows the HEX depot at Old Oak Common to close as HS2 need the land. The use of 387s also allows the removal of the old BR ATP system on the Heathrow branch. This then removes a source of system interference between ETCS (which the 345s can work with) and BR ATP (which they can't). The 387s will be able to use ETCS subject to equipment fitment. The bit that is really confusing me is that the Crossrail weekly updates to the Mayor make no mention of any of this. Instead they show milestones reflecting production of a new software version from Bombardier that allows the 345s to run into Heathrow. The target date for this was October this year. Clearly it's not been met but it's very odd. Reading the last Mayoral report gives more insight on this - apparently the problems with the software for the "core" have delayed the new version for Heathrow access. It had gone back to Feb 2019 in the last published report in August. Goodness knows what's happened since - TfL haven't issued any Mayoral updates since then as I assume the content is too explosive for publication. Also the new timetable on 9 December was supposed to be the date from which 9 car 345s could run into the Hayes and Harlington bay platform. That would release 7 car 345s back east. I've no idea if this change has happened.
|
|
|
Post by snowman on Dec 17, 2018 9:31:36 GMT
|
|
|
Post by busaholic on Dec 18, 2018 0:34:09 GMT
What - a mere year after opening?
|
|
|
Post by snowman on Jan 9, 2019 6:20:25 GMT
|
|
|
Post by snoggle on Jan 9, 2019 11:35:48 GMT
I watched that entire Budget meeting. The media, as usual, have somewhat twisted what was said. Mr Kilonback had been asked about 10 times for a date by Gareth Bacon, Chair of the Cttee. Mike Brown had been asked about 20 times. You'll not be shocked that the Tory AMs wanted a date because they want to hang the blame round the Mayor's neck. The TfL line was quite clearly that until Mark Wild's review work was complete and assessed no date should be provided. Obviously for financial purposes assumptions had to be made but that is not the same as saying that the opening date *will* be at a given time. The point was also made multiple times that many of the assumptions are deliberately pessimistic. There seems to be a view emerging that the full connected service won't open until May 2020 which, actually, is 6 months late overall. The core would open in advance of that and it depends how you define "opening" as to how late the railway is.
|
|
|
Post by snoggle on Jan 9, 2019 17:04:40 GMT
There was a further Transport Cttee meeting at City Hall today. There were two distinct parts - first with Sir Terry Morgan, second with Mark Wild, Heidi Alexander, David Hughes (TfL) and the new yet to start Chairman of Crossrail Ltd. A webcast is available on the London.gov.uk site.
To no great surprise Sir Terry's view of what was said at the July 2018 meeting differs from what was stated by the Mayor and Commissioner in Dec last year. No real point in dwelling on any of that. Various statements were made that don't align with what others have said so we're no further forward.
The second session had a few new bits of info from Mark Wild.
- Woolwich Station is apparently "handed over" and "looks great". Farringdon and Custom House are at contractor demobilisation stage. - Bond Street will finish last, probably in the Summer. - The aim is to get all the construction at stations done with 3-4 months to then allow system testing within stations. - Still working on a programme to sequence the functional testing at stations. This sequencing work should take a few more weeks to complete. - Signalling at Heathrow is not a key priority *at the moment* for Mark Wild. The efforts of Bombardier and Siemens are on getting the core signalling working plus the transition points at Royal Oak / Pudding Mill Lane. - It may still be the case that if the core opens 1 or 2 stations may not open fully. Clearly that is wholly dependent on the relative progress of both train and station testing. If all the stations get through testing and commissioning and into operational preparedness broadly together then that partial opening wouldn't be needed. - Mark Wild stressed multiple times that the Crossrail project did not fully understand the extent of the technical challenge in getting from a construction to an operating railway. I sort of struggle with this given the multiple times he and Sir Terry Morgan said they'd got excellent people on the project and at Executive / Board level. - Apparently around 1,000 people at Bombardier at multiple sites worldwide incl Derby and Bangalore are involved in trying to get the Aventras working with Siemens Trainguard plus the transition points. - Although no firm statements were made about opening dates there was a clear preference from Mark Wild to preserve the structure of a phased opening in order to give time for reliability growth with each iteration of the timetable. - Contracts have been let by NR for the station rebuilds at Southall, Hayes and Harlington and West Drayton. - The contracts for Acton Main Line, Ealing Broadway and West Ealing should be let very soon. Some level of enabling works at these sites was achieved over the Xmas possessions. - Accessibility works at some of East London stations should finish within a few weeks. No info yet re Ilford and Romford where the scope is larger and more involved.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jan 31, 2019 15:16:26 GMT
New Crossrail boss admits he has no idea when line will open Now looking like 2020 at the earliest. Stations at the Western end on the GWML all look FAR from completion with some showing very little evidence of work having even taken place. If it is 2020 or up to 2022 then I wonder what dire implications are for TfL's income and then service improvements on the tube or with the buses. And what of all the proposed Crossrail bus changes that are still on track for implementation this year, as well as those already in effect ... 25?!
|
|