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Post by snoggle on Mar 8, 2019 20:50:19 GMT
I heard our Mayor on the radio yesterday and he was asked about Crossrail opening and the lack of an opening date. I am hoping that I am quoting him correctly when I think he said that he would be advised (by Crossrail) of when the line might open in April (next month). Matches what's been said elsewhere. It is worth just noting that the revised opening date was supposed to be announced in March so we've already lost a month just in terms of giving a vague update. I don't think we will get any sort of firm date at all. It will be completely non committal and hedged about in terms of possibilities / risks / uncertainties that will take months and months to sort out. We will probably get something like "Spring 2020" for the core opening and "Autumn 2020" for the joining up of the separate sections - most likely the Dec 2020 timetable change date. Feel free to come back and correct me if I've got the above wrong when the official utterances finally appear.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 8, 2019 20:53:35 GMT
Does anyone know if there are issues with the Connaught Tunnel for about the 3rd or 4th time is the last couple of years it seems like water pumping equipment is being used from the tunnel onto Victoria Dock Road.
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Post by snoggle on Mar 8, 2019 21:17:48 GMT
Does anyone know if there are issues with the Connaught Tunnel for about the 3rd or 4th time is the last couple of years it seems like water pumping equipment is being used from the tunnel onto Victoria Dock Road. I've seen nothing official. I did see a rather odd tweet the other day from someone who "suggested" there were problems in the tunnel and also somewhere else on the branch. I would not be at all surprised if the Connaught Tunnel was leaking - it is very very hard to take old infrastructure that hasn't been cared for very well and then upgrade it and somehow not have problems. Water will always find a way out no matter what you do. As an aside I went through Leicester Sq station this week and it is suffering again from water ingress problems despite a lot of money having been spent to try to control it and stop damage to the station fabric. You can see the same problem in Waterloo tube stn where the JLE bit is.
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Post by snowman on Mar 20, 2019 6:30:11 GMT
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Post by snoggle on Mar 20, 2019 12:42:17 GMT
The new TfL Budget for next year has three interesting assumptions with regard to Crossrail.
- confirmation of a possible opening schedule in April 2019. - TfL are assuming that the core tunnel services will commence in the final quarter of 2019/20 (therefore Jan to March 2020). - TfL are assuming £28m worth of extra revenue from the take up of Paddington to Reading services in December 2019.
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Post by snowman on Mar 22, 2019 10:00:15 GMT
Appears the sale and Leaseback of the 70 Elizabeth line trains has now been confirmed and consortium of financiers announced www.railmagazine.com/news/fleet/tfl-agrees-1-billion-sale-and-leaseback-deal-for-elizabeth-line-trainsThis raises some short term cash, but of course means TfL need to pay rentals each month instead. Eventually plan is to buy Piccadilly line trains instead (which presumably nobody wants to buy and then lease them out, as possible problems with a new design could result in a financial risk). Obviously this way solves some problems as either way end up with one owned fleet and one rented fleet.
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Post by redbus on Mar 22, 2019 19:46:51 GMT
Appears the sale and Leaseback of the 70 Elizabeth line trains has now been confirmed and consortium of financiers announced www.railmagazine.com/news/fleet/tfl-agrees-1-billion-sale-and-leaseback-deal-for-elizabeth-line-trainsThis raises some short term cash, but of course means TfL need to pay rentals each month instead. Eventually plan is to buy Piccadilly line trains instead (which presumably nobody wants to buy and then lease them out, as possible problems with a new design could result in a financial risk). Obviously this way solves some problems as either way end up with one owned fleet and one rented fleet. Other than for short term finance I can't see the sense (unless politics get involved) in leasing trains. If you lease something it invariably costs more than outright purchase (taking inflation into account), otherwise how else can the financing company make any money. Bodies such as TfL can surely borrow at a much lower interest rate than a leasing company can ever offer.
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Post by snoggle on Mar 23, 2019 11:53:44 GMT
Appears the sale and Leaseback of the 70 Elizabeth line trains has now been confirmed and consortium of financiers announced www.railmagazine.com/news/fleet/tfl-agrees-1-billion-sale-and-leaseback-deal-for-elizabeth-line-trainsThis raises some short term cash, but of course means TfL need to pay rentals each month instead. Eventually plan is to buy Piccadilly line trains instead (which presumably nobody wants to buy and then lease them out, as possible problems with a new design could result in a financial risk). Obviously this way solves some problems as either way end up with one owned fleet and one rented fleet. Other than for short term finance I can't see the sense (unless politics get involved) in leasing trains. If you lease something it invariably costs more than outright purchase (taking inflation into account), otherwise how else can the financing company make any money. Bodies such as TfL can surely borrow at a much lower interest rate than a leasing company can ever offer. Yes but TfL's borrowing is capped by the government. There is no headroom for it to borrow the large sums needed for a new Picc Line train fleet nor is there money for the resignalling of that line. TfL's basic structure relies on ever increasing revenues - i.e. annual fare rises. The current Mayor failed to appreciate that when he was bounced into his Fares Freeze commitment. We would not be in anything like the mess we are now nor will remain in for the next 5-7 years if fares had risen modestly each year during his tenure. The budget and business plan pushes TfL into "maxed out" territory on its borrowing by 2021 with the ongoing consequences for servicing that debt mountain. The lack of govt subsidy and the removal of specific investment grant (now covered by a share of business rates) have also contributed to the weakening of TfL's position. None of this is good but it is all politics. If Crossrail's revenues pan out as expected then leasing the train fleet should be easily affordable within the overall funding model for Crossrail. The trains aren't going anywhere for decades because of their unique design and linkage to the design of the platform edge doors at central area stations. Therefore the lessors are pretty much guaranteed their money.
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Post by snowman on Mar 23, 2019 13:56:48 GMT
Other than for short term finance I can't see the sense (unless politics get involved) in leasing trains. If you lease something it invariably costs more than outright purchase (taking inflation into account), otherwise how else can the financing company make any money. Bodies such as TfL can surely borrow at a much lower interest rate than a leasing company can ever offer. Yes but TfL's borrowing is capped by the government. There is no headroom for it to borrow the large sums needed for a new Picc Line train fleet nor is there money for the resignalling of that line. TfL's basic structure relies on ever increasing revenues - i.e. annual fare rises. The current Mayor failed to appreciate that when he was bounced into his Fares Freeze commitment. We would not be in anything like the mess we are now nor will remain in for the next 5-7 years if fares had risen modestly each year during his tenure. The budget and business plan pushes TfL into "maxed out" territory on its borrowing by 2021 with the ongoing consequences for servicing that debt mountain. The lack of govt subsidy and the removal of specific investment grant (now covered by a share of business rates) have also contributed to the weakening of TfL's position. None of this is good but it is all politics. If Crossrail's revenues pan out as expected then leasing the train fleet should be easily affordable within the overall funding model for Crossrail. The trains aren't going anywhere for decades because of their unique design and linkage to the design of the platform edge doors at central area stations. Therefore the lessors are pretty much guaranteed their money. Commercially redbus is correct, TfL can borrow at lower rates, so this is more expensive overall. snoggle is also correct, TfL have a borrowing cap, but that doesn’t explain why new Piccadilly Line trains and signalling, which has been known about for years, and is routine replacement (about 90%. as 10% could be classed as augmentation) has had no money saved against it. These schemes are a few years late, so really should have already put about 15-20% of cost into the investment fund. Reality is TfL keep deferring schemes to save spending short term, but then use the funding elsewhere. If you look back through history of tube, tended to have new trains, or new signals, or new escalator shafts in different years, not try and do it same time because it would drain the cash flow too much. One of the dangers of leasing is you have a forward liability. You have creditor commitments in next few years. If don’t pay, the owner could impound its trains, so unlike now where the risk is drivers won’t driver them because they strike, now have 2 risks. Also there is risk TfL won’t get a good leasing rate, especially for the Piccadilly line trains as not a lot of alternative use for them so residual risk is very high. (In blunt terms for lease Co, if TfL no longer want them, or able to afford them, or discover in a decade that a cheaper alternative is available so would prefer those, then what happens to these. The Elizabeth Line trains have a purchase option (so is a bit like a PCP deal for a car), however I think the purchase is a token amount, so presumably the lease rentals are stacked to recover the cost over the shorter time to this option date.
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Post by snoggle on Mar 23, 2019 14:31:04 GMT
Commercially redbus is correct, TfL can borrow at lower rates, so this is more expensive overall. snoggle is also correct, TfL have a borrowing cap, but that doesn’t explain why new Piccadilly Line trains and signalling, which has been known about for years, and is routine replacement (about 90%. as 10% could be classed as augmentation) has had no money saved against it. These schemes are a few years late, so really should have already put about 15-20% of cost into the investment fund. Reality is TfL keep deferring schemes to save spending short term, but then use the funding elsewhere. If you look back through history of tube, tended to have new trains, or new signals, or new escalator shafts in different years, not try and do it same time because it would drain the cash flow too much. One of the dangers of leasing is you have a forward liability. You have creditor commitments in next few years. If don’t pay, the owner could impound its trains, so unlike now where the risk is drivers won’t driver them because they strike, now have 2 risks. Also there is risk TfL won’t get a good leasing rate, especially for the Piccadilly line trains as not a lot of alternative use for them so residual risk is very high. (In blunt terms for lease Co, if TfL no longer want them, or able to afford them, or discover in a decade that a cheaper alternative is available so would prefer those, then what happens to these. The Elizabeth Line trains have a purchase option (so is a bit like a PCP deal for a car), however I think the purchase is a token amount, so presumably the lease rentals are stacked to recover the cost over the shorter time to this option date. The Picc Line upgrade was originally a PPP deliverable. I used to have a desk beside the client team doing the planning for it. The scheme has been repeatedly postponed and delayed - largely due to political and funding problems. Also I think LU has prevaricated umpteen times over the scope - again partly driven by politics. Boris wanted "unmanned" trains, Sadiq doesn't want to irritate the unions. All this toing and froing doesn't help get a specification correct. Of course TfL are delaying capex and also maintenance / renewal spend - this has been the standard approach throughout LT, LRT and now TfL control. If you have no budget certainty beyond 12 months then it is folly to commit to large scale, high spend schemes. Only those which are already committed get funded - e.g. SSR resignalling. Anyone who ran an investment budget, as I did years ago, became an expert in cutting and trimming their budget to cater for ever more ridiculous funding scenarios - 10% cut, 25% cut, 60% cut, 80% cut. One small correction. The Picc Line fleet, AIUI, is a capital purchase not a further leasing deal. The reason for doing the class 345 leasing deal is to raise the cash to pay for the Picc Line trains. You clearly know more about leasing than I ever will but I don't believe TfL are going down the leasing road for tube stock - largely because, as you say, there is no viable alternative use for the trains.
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Post by snowman on Mar 23, 2019 15:35:08 GMT
Commercially redbus is correct, TfL can borrow at lower rates, so this is more expensive overall. snoggle is also correct, TfL have a borrowing cap, but that doesn’t explain why new Piccadilly Line trains and signalling, which has been known about for years, and is routine replacement (about 90%. as 10% could be classed as augmentation) has had no money saved against it. These schemes are a few years late, so really should have already put about 15-20% of cost into the investment fund. Reality is TfL keep deferring schemes to save spending short term, but then use the funding elsewhere. If you look back through history of tube, tended to have new trains, or new signals, or new escalator shafts in different years, not try and do it same time because it would drain the cash flow too much. One of the dangers of leasing is you have a forward liability. You have creditor commitments in next few years. If don’t pay, the owner could impound its trains, so unlike now where the risk is drivers won’t driver them because they strike, now have 2 risks. Also there is risk TfL won’t get a good leasing rate, especially for the Piccadilly line trains as not a lot of alternative use for them so residual risk is very high. (In blunt terms for lease Co, if TfL no longer want them, or able to afford them, or discover in a decade that a cheaper alternative is available so would prefer those, then what happens to these. The Elizabeth Line trains have a purchase option (so is a bit like a PCP deal for a car), however I think the purchase is a token amount, so presumably the lease rentals are stacked to recover the cost over the shorter time to this option date. The Picc Line upgrade was originally a PPP deliverable. I used to have a desk beside the client team doing the planning for it. The scheme has been repeatedly postponed and delayed - largely due to political and funding problems. Also I think LU has prevaricated umpteen times over the scope - again partly driven by politics. Boris wanted "unmanned" trains, Sadiq doesn't want to irritate the unions. All this toing and froing doesn't help get a specification correct. Of course TfL are delaying capex and also maintenance / renewal spend - this has been the standard approach throughout LT, LRT and now TfL control. If you have no budget certainty beyond 12 months then it is folly to commit to large scale, high spend schemes. Only those which are already committed get funded - e.g. SSR resignalling. Anyone who ran an investment budget, as I did years ago, became an expert in cutting and trimming their budget to cater for ever more ridiculous funding scenarios - 10% cut, 25% cut, 60% cut, 80% cut. One small correction. The Picc Line fleet, AIUI, is a capital purchase not a further leasing deal. The reason for doing the class 345 leasing deal is to raise the cash to pay for the Picc Line trains. You clearly know more about leasing than I ever will but I don't believe TfL are going down the leasing road for tube stock - largely because, as you say, there is no viable alternative use for the trains. Should have been clearer TfL selling and leasing back the Elizabeth Line fleet for about £1bn TfL buying the Piccadilly Line fleet, have seen figure of £1.5bn quoted (but that is contract value and includes years of technical support). The split between Capital purchase and maintenance is not revealed yet as commercially sensitive Of course TfL bought the Elizabeth Line trains (rather than lease from start, so they were also a capital purchase) and only recently sold and leaseback them, so could still do a similar deal with Piccadilly Line trains in a few years time, sometime after buying them.
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Post by redbus on Mar 23, 2019 22:25:51 GMT
The Picc Line upgrade was originally a PPP deliverable. I used to have a desk beside the client team doing the planning for it. The scheme has been repeatedly postponed and delayed - largely due to political and funding problems. Also I think LU has prevaricated umpteen times over the scope - again partly driven by politics. Boris wanted "unmanned" trains, Sadiq doesn't want to irritate the unions. All this toing and froing doesn't help get a specification correct. Of course TfL are delaying capex and also maintenance / renewal spend - this has been the standard approach throughout LT, LRT and now TfL control. If you have no budget certainty beyond 12 months then it is folly to commit to large scale, high spend schemes. Only those which are already committed get funded - e.g. SSR resignalling. Anyone who ran an investment budget, as I did years ago, became an expert in cutting and trimming their budget to cater for ever more ridiculous funding scenarios - 10% cut, 25% cut, 60% cut, 80% cut. One small correction. The Picc Line fleet, AIUI, is a capital purchase not a further leasing deal. The reason for doing the class 345 leasing deal is to raise the cash to pay for the Picc Line trains. You clearly know more about leasing than I ever will but I don't believe TfL are going down the leasing road for tube stock - largely because, as you say, there is no viable alternative use for the trains. Should have been clearer TfL selling and leasing back the Elizabeth Line fleet for about £1bn TfL buying the Piccadilly Line fleet, have seen figure of £1.5bn quoted (but that is contract value and includes years of technical support). The split between Capital purchase and maintenance is not revealed yet as commercially sensitive Of course TfL bought the Elizabeth Line trains (rather than lease from start, so they were also a capital purchase) and only recently sold and leaseback them, so could still do a similar deal with Piccadilly Line trains in a few years time, sometime after buying them. Maybe I am mistaken, but I presume the leasing company would ensure that TfL lease the trains for a set numbers of years (say 30 years) to protect their investment. As a result any of their trains could surely be leased out, but whether that is sensible is quite another matter.
Of course it does come down to politics as you say, politics dictates how much TfL can borrow, capex and revex amounts, fares etc. So in effect politics is giving us bigger bills in the future as the leasing costs will be higher than either outright purchase or TfL borrowing the money. The extra that is now going to be spent on leasing costs cost, for example, have been used to improve the bus service, or reduce the amount it is cut.
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Post by snowman on Apr 3, 2019 8:39:33 GMT
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Post by twobellstogo on Apr 3, 2019 9:08:49 GMT
I have long thought that 2019 opening is most unlikely. I am now of the opinion that the core won’t open until mid 2021 at the very earliest.
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Post by snoggle on Apr 3, 2019 15:43:53 GMT
I have long thought that 2019 opening is most unlikely. I am now of the opinion that the core won’t open until mid 2021 at the very earliest. I can't see it stretching it to 2021 for the Core. That is unsustainable on a whole load of fronts - most importantly money. I think the core will open in 2020 and would not be surprised to see a range of dates covering May to September 2020. I think Bond St may open a little later than the rest of the core - possibly November 2020 to reflect the demand for Christmas shopping capacity on Oxford St. Feel free to come back and point and laugh if I am hopelessly wrong. The bigger problem is the timing of the outer sections being linked in as we're tied largely to May and December dates for timetable changes. The only small glimmer of hope is that there is often a smaller scale change in September time to reflect the removal of Summer only services - I believe GWR have such a change. The other important aspect is that GWR are due to have a major timetable recast anyway and that forms the basis of a Crossrail compliant timetable. Once that's in place then, in theory, the paths are there for the full through Crossrail service to be added as and when. I'd also expect that the Reading services could be readily "back worked" into the Crossrail core anyway. Assuming TfL take on the stopping services to Reading this December then that's a further complication out of the way.
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