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Post by snoggle on Feb 5, 2019 11:52:26 GMT
Interesting but indicative of the wider problems that First have brought upon themselves. You'd expect the Gtr Manchester bus market to have some life in it but clearly it's not enough for First to sustain operations. Lots of speculation elsewhere as to who may be brave or daft enough to take on part of the operation. Stagecoach, Transdev, Go Ahead, Rotala and National Express are all mentioned as potential purchasers. Arriva are considered not to be contenders as there's no evidence they're in expansive mode. It will be fascinating to see how things pan out in terms of sales and the subsequent impact on networks. There is a wider concern that Mayor Burnham's plans for bus franchising may scare buyers off as there is no guarantee that an operator would retain a viable business if franchising goes ahead.
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Post by tony4387 on Feb 6, 2019 13:32:09 GMT
I can’t see arriva expand anywhere in the uk to be honest given what seems to be going on with there parent company I would like to see tower transit expand but to be honest I can’t even see them expanding
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Post by wirewiper on Feb 6, 2019 15:07:59 GMT
Stagecoach might like the idea of being able to buy up a larger slice of the Greater Manchester bus market at a knock-down price - but would the Monopolies and Mergers Commission allow it? It is possible that the First operation will be split up and acquired by other operators such as Transdev or Rotala, as Bolt-on acquisitions (Bolt-on, Bolton, see what I did there? Oh, please yourselves). Another possibility is that one of the big players in London could acquire the operation. If GM goes to franchising operators such as Go-Ahead, Metroline (Comfort DelGro), Abellio et al will be well placed with their London experience.
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Post by redexpress on Feb 6, 2019 21:19:57 GMT
Stagecoach might like the idea of being able to buy up a larger slice of the Greater Manchester bus market at a knock-down price - but would the Monopolies and Mergers Commission allow it? It is possible that the First operation will be split up and acquired by other operators such as Transdev or Rotala, as Bolt-on acquisitions (Bolt-on, Bolton, see what I did there? Oh, please yourselves). Another possibility is that one of the big players in London could acquire the operation. If GM goes to franchising operators such as Go-Ahead, Metroline (Comfort DelGro), Abellio et al will be well placed with their London experience. The article does state that each of the sites will be sold to separate operators. Probably the best way of making the most cash from the sale, given there wouldn't be that many outfits who could afford to bid for the whole lot.
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Post by busaholic on Feb 6, 2019 21:57:11 GMT
Stagecoach might like the idea of being able to buy up a larger slice of the Greater Manchester bus market at a knock-down price - but would the Monopolies and Mergers Commission allow it? It is possible that the First operation will be split up and acquired by other operators such as Transdev or Rotala, as Bolt-on acquisitions (Bolt-on, Bolton, see what I did there? Oh, please yourselves). Another possibility is that one of the big players in London could acquire the operation. If GM goes to franchising operators such as Go-Ahead, Metroline (Comfort DelGro), Abellio et al will be well placed with their London experience. The article does state that each of the sites will be sold to separate operators. Probably the best way of making the most cash from the sale, given there wouldn't be that many outfits who could afford to bid for the whole lot. That way Stagecoach might possibly seek to buy one of those sites. They, and the other potential operators, will be all too cognisant of the Merseyside situation a while back when Arriva, the successors to Merseybus, were required to divest themselves of Gilmoss depot: everyone will be trying to avoid a recurrence, not least the Monopolies and Mergers people.
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Post by MetrolineGA1511 on Feb 10, 2019 13:19:12 GMT
As far as I know, the only operators serving central Manchester apart from First are Stagecoach, Arriva, Transdev, Rotala-owned Diamond and HCT-owned MCT. Other operators serving Greater Manchester are CentreBus/Wellglade-owned High Peak, RATP-owned Selwyns, municipal Warrington's Own Buses and independents CumfyBus, Jim Stones Travel, M Travel, Stotts and Vision Bus. Some of these companies only run tendered services. There are other school route or coach-only operators.
So, I wonder whether anyone would want to break into Greater Manchester with just 1 depot?
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Post by VWH1414 on Feb 10, 2019 13:48:18 GMT
As far as I know, the only operators serving central Manchester apart from First are Stagecoach, Arriva, Transdev, Rotala-owned Diamond and HCT-owned MCT. Other operators serving Greater Manchester are CentreBus/Wellglade-owned High Peak, RATP-owned Selwyns, municipal Warrington's Own Buses and independents CumfyBus, Jim Stones Travel, M Travel, Stotts and Vision Bus. Some of these companies only run tendered services. There are other school route or coach-only operators. So, I wonder whether anyone would want to break into Greater Manchester with just 1 depot? I have a feeling that both Oldham and Queens Road depots will go to the same operator, with Bolton depot maybe going to the same one too. My predictions are: All 3 depots to Comfort Delgro - Will be interesting, seeing as they only currently own Metroline, NAT, Scottish Citylink and West Bus in the UK, so would be nice to see some expansion rather than it being the same operators as usual expanding (Stagecoach*, Arriva**, Rotala, Go Ahead, RATP etc) OR Bolton Depot to Vision Bus (Would be nice to see them expand), Oldham Depot to MCT, Queens Road Depot to Rotala Group OR Bolton Depot to RATP and Oldham & Queens Road Depots to Go Ahead Will be interesting to see what happens though, I'm half expecting a new operator to break into the Manchester market. * - I think its safe to say we can rule Stagecoach out - They already own too much in the area to take over anymore, competition authorities definitely wouldn't approve. * - Arriva haven't been doing the best outside of London for a while, slowly cutting back on the network up in the North West, so I doubt they will go for the Manchester operation, thus ruling them out.
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Post by snoggle on Feb 10, 2019 14:44:53 GMT
As far as I know, the only operators serving central Manchester apart from First are Stagecoach, Arriva, Transdev, Rotala-owned Diamond and HCT-owned MCT. Other operators serving Greater Manchester are CentreBus/Wellglade-owned High Peak, RATP-owned Selwyns, municipal Warrington's Own Buses and independents CumfyBus, Jim Stones Travel, M Travel, Stotts and Vision Bus. Some of these companies only run tendered services. There are other school route or coach-only operators. So, I wonder whether anyone would want to break into Greater Manchester with just 1 depot? I have a feeling that both Oldham and Queens Road depots will go to the same operator, with Bolton depot maybe going to the same one too. My predictions are: All 3 depots to Comfort Delgro - Will be interesting, seeing as they only currently own Metroline, NAT, Scottish Citylink and West Bus in the UK, so would be nice to see some expansion rather than it being the same operators as usual expanding (Stagecoach*, Arriva**, Rotala, Go Ahead, RATP etc) OR Bolton Depot to Vision Bus (Would be nice to see them expand), Oldham Depot to MCT, Queens Road Depot to Rotala Group OR Bolton Depot to RATP and Oldham & Queens Road Depots to Go Ahead Will be interesting to see what happens though, I'm half expecting a new operator to break into the Manchester market. * - I think its safe to say we can rule Stagecoach out - They already own too much in the area to take over anymore, competition authorities definitely wouldn't approve. * - Arriva haven't been doing the best outside of London for a while, slowly cutting back on the network up in the North West, so I doubt they will go for the Manchester operation, thus ruling them out. I really can't see Comfort Delgro taking such a big leap into the relative unknown of taking on three garages in a part of the country where they have no presence whatsoever. There is no guarantee at all that the local First management team would stay with the sold businesses. There is probably a small commercial team that isn't capable of being split three ways which will cause problems for any incoming purchasers. Far too much risk involved - especially as First have clearly not made much of a go of the area. I suspect Stagecoach may actually get one garage - whichever can sit alongside Wigan, perhaps Bolton? Transdev may be tempted to expand southwards a bit perhaps Oldham or Bolton? In the background to all of this is the fact that Stagecoach could simply register a load of competing services if they wanted to. Other smaller groups may opt to cherry pick other routes that First haven't done their best with. A few radical decisions from incumbents could render the "for sale" business rather less valuable.
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Post by VWH1414 on Feb 10, 2019 15:09:06 GMT
I have a feeling that both Oldham and Queens Road depots will go to the same operator, with Bolton depot maybe going to the same one too. My predictions are: All 3 depots to Comfort Delgro - Will be interesting, seeing as they only currently own Metroline, NAT, Scottish Citylink and West Bus in the UK, so would be nice to see some expansion rather than it being the same operators as usual expanding (Stagecoach*, Arriva**, Rotala, Go Ahead, RATP etc) OR Bolton Depot to Vision Bus (Would be nice to see them expand), Oldham Depot to MCT, Queens Road Depot to Rotala Group OR Bolton Depot to RATP and Oldham & Queens Road Depots to Go Ahead Will be interesting to see what happens though, I'm half expecting a new operator to break into the Manchester market. * - I think its safe to say we can rule Stagecoach out - They already own too much in the area to take over anymore, competition authorities definitely wouldn't approve. * - Arriva haven't been doing the best outside of London for a while, slowly cutting back on the network up in the North West, so I doubt they will go for the Manchester operation, thus ruling them out. I really can't see Comfort Delgro taking such a big leap into the relative unknown of taking on three garages in a part of the country where they have no presence whatsoever. There is no guarantee at all that the local First management team would stay with the sold businesses. There is probably a small commercial team that isn't capable of being split three ways which will cause problems for any incoming purchasers. Far too much risk involved - especially as First have clearly not made much of a go of the area. I suspect Stagecoach may actually get one garage - whichever can sit alongside Wigan, perhaps Bolton? Transdev may be tempted to expand southwards a bit perhaps Oldham or Bolton? In the background to all of this is the fact that Stagecoach could simply register a load of competing services if they wanted to. Other smaller groups may opt to cherry pick other routes that First haven't done their best with. A few radical decisions from incumbents could render the "for sale" business rather less valuable. That is true about Comfort Delgro - But it was a decent leap when they bought NAT too, maybe not as big of a leap as NAT was bigger though. Would be nice for Comfort Delgro to expand in the UK though. From what I saw on another forum, Stagecoach is pretty much out of the runnings of getting another garage from what people in the area were saying - I think Transdev or RATP are the best bets for Bolton depot. Of course it won't stop Stagecoach possibly registering a few ex First routes, especially if First doesn't sell the garages.
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Post by snoggle on Feb 10, 2019 15:25:24 GMT
I really can't see Comfort Delgro taking such a big leap into the relative unknown of taking on three garages in a part of the country where they have no presence whatsoever. There is no guarantee at all that the local First management team would stay with the sold businesses. There is probably a small commercial team that isn't capable of being split three ways which will cause problems for any incoming purchasers. Far too much risk involved - especially as First have clearly not made much of a go of the area. I suspect Stagecoach may actually get one garage - whichever can sit alongside Wigan, perhaps Bolton? Transdev may be tempted to expand southwards a bit perhaps Oldham or Bolton? In the background to all of this is the fact that Stagecoach could simply register a load of competing services if they wanted to. Other smaller groups may opt to cherry pick other routes that First haven't done their best with. A few radical decisions from incumbents could render the "for sale" business rather less valuable. That is true about Comfort Delgro - But it was a decent leap when they bought NAT too, maybe not as big of a leap as NAT was bigger though. Would be nice for Comfort Delgro to expand in the UK though. From what I saw on another forum, Stagecoach is pretty much out of the runnings of getting another garage from what people in the area were saying - I think Transdev or RATP are the best bets for Bolton depot. Of course it won't stop Stagecoach possibly registering a few ex First routes, especially if First doesn't sell the garages. NAT is a relatively small business which is easy to run a slide rule over in terms of its prospects. I suspect it also has a low cost base and also a mix of commercial and tendered work which is closer to Comfort Delgro's preferred model. It is also, AIUI, up against municipal competitors rather than large groups. I believe NAT has been partly responsible for undermining some of Cardiff Buses' services because of the competitive routes it's introduced. If push comes to shove in terms of sales of either Cardiff Bus or Newport Transport then Comfort Delgro would be well placed to bid and thus integrate the new purchases alongside NAT. Even if the purchase of NAT doesn't work in the medium term I doubt Comfort Delgro would suffer too much of a loss. It's a very different situation in somewhere like Greater Manchester. The First businesses have an extremely mixed fleet and none of it is in exactly great shape. There is also an existential threat from Mayor Burnham's desire for re-regulation / tendering. I suspect that threat and the scale of losses are why First is selling up - not dissimilar to what happened with First London. Can't see them getting £100m for the Manchester ops as they did for the ex London ones.
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Post by danorak on Feb 10, 2019 15:44:36 GMT
There is a wider concern that Mayor Burnham's plans for bus franchising may scare buyers off as there is no guarantee that an operator would retain a viable business if franchising goes ahead. This is the key for me - what would you actually be buying? There's no guarantee that any purchaser would get a slice of the post-franchising cake (if it happens). The upside I suppose is that if you think Burnham is bluffing and using the threat of franchising as a way of getting operators to promise improvements, you might buy into a big market at a suppressed price. Big risk though.
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Post by snoggle on Feb 10, 2019 16:11:04 GMT
There is a wider concern that Mayor Burnham's plans for bus franchising may scare buyers off as there is no guarantee that an operator would retain a viable business if franchising goes ahead. This is the key for me - what would you actually be buying? There's no guarantee that any purchaser would get a slice of the post-franchising cake (if it happens). The upside I suppose is that if you think Burnham is bluffing and using the threat of franchising as a way of getting operators to promise improvements, you might buy into a big market at a suppressed price. Big risk though. Haven't the local operators ganged together to offer £100m of improvements if re-regulation doesn't go ahead? Wonder how much of that was coming from First and would have to be picked up by new purchasers? www.passengertransport.co.uk/2019/01/100m-bid-to-see-off-gm-franchising-plans/Sadly the OneBus website only has one front page and no other detail that I can find. Their Twitter feed links to this Stagecoach release www.stagecoach.com/media/news-releases/2019/2019-01-23.aspx which also links to this www.stagecoach.com/~/media/Files/S/Stagecoach-Group/onebus-proposal-brochure-revised-11-01-18.pdf which seems to be at least a year old.
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Post by danorak on Feb 10, 2019 17:35:49 GMT
Roger French's rambling around the area yesterday didn't paint a great picture of 'OneBus' on Twitter.
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Post by busaholic on Feb 10, 2019 17:56:28 GMT
I have a feeling that both Oldham and Queens Road depots will go to the same operator, with Bolton depot maybe going to the same one too. My predictions are: All 3 depots to Comfort Delgro - Will be interesting, seeing as they only currently own Metroline, NAT, Scottish Citylink and West Bus in the UK, so would be nice to see some expansion rather than it being the same operators as usual expanding (Stagecoach*, Arriva**, Rotala, Go Ahead, RATP etc) OR Bolton Depot to Vision Bus (Would be nice to see them expand), Oldham Depot to MCT, Queens Road Depot to Rotala Group OR Bolton Depot to RATP and Oldham & Queens Road Depots to Go Ahead Will be interesting to see what happens though, I'm half expecting a new operator to break into the Manchester market. * - I think its safe to say we can rule Stagecoach out - They already own too much in the area to take over anymore, competition authorities definitely wouldn't approve. * - Arriva haven't been doing the best outside of London for a while, slowly cutting back on the network up in the North West, so I doubt they will go for the Manchester operation, thus ruling them out. I really can't see Comfort Delgro taking such a big leap into the relative unknown of taking on three garages in a part of the country where they have no presence whatsoever. There is no guarantee at all that the local First management team would stay with the sold businesses. There is probably a small commercial team that isn't capable of being split three ways which will cause problems for any incoming purchasers. Far too much risk involved - especially as First have clearly not made much of a go of the area. I suspect Stagecoach may actually get one garage - whichever can sit alongside Wigan, perhaps Bolton? Transdev may be tempted to expand southwards a bit perhaps Oldham or Bolton? In the background to all of this is the fact that Stagecoach could simply register a load of competing services if they wanted to. Other smaller groups may opt to cherry pick other routes that First haven't done their best with. A few radical decisions from incumbents could render the "for sale" business rather less valuable. I speculated that Stagecoach might be allowed to purchase one depot, the proviso being that they only applied for the one. My scant, and that out-of-date, knowledge of the area suggests Bolton too: good ex-Ribble territory.
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Post by titan1mike on Feb 19, 2019 7:53:54 GMT
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