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Post by snowman on Dec 5, 2018 22:19:08 GMT
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Post by snowman on Dec 10, 2018 20:16:55 GMT
The Finance Committee meeting is 13 December, and it sounds like plan is still to issue the revised Business Plan prior to the meeting. However I do wonder what other projects might get deferred or cut back, the finances were in a poor place even before allowing for the further Elizabeth Line bailout and delays announced today.
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Post by snoggle on Dec 11, 2018 13:40:17 GMT
It's available now. content.tfl.gov.uk/fc-20181213-item07-tfl-business-plan-approval.pdfThe resignalling of the deep tube lines has been cancelled as there is no money. So new trains on the Picc but rattling along on old tracks, old signalling and worn out power supplies. Marvellous. Buses looks horrendous I am afraid - see page 84 of the pdf linked to above. TfL are predicting NO increase in passengers at all - continuous decline in pass jnys. Huge cuts to Inner London services - 10m kms axed next year, then another 3m then 2 years later a further 1m. (from 147m kms to 133m kms) Very modest increase in Outer London - 1m increase next year, 1m 2 years later then 2m extra 2 years later then 1m the year after. Grand total of 5m kms increase. Cross boundary services are protected at 10m kms each year. That might bring some relief to people on the Kent, Herts, Surrey and Essex borders.
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Post by snowman on Dec 11, 2018 14:24:30 GMT
It's available now. content.tfl.gov.uk/fc-20181213-item07-tfl-business-plan-approval.pdfThe resignalling of the deep tube lines has been cancelled as there is no money. So new trains on the Picc but rattling along on old tracks, old signalling and worn out power supplies. Marvellous. Buses looks horrendous I am afraid - see page 84 of the pdf linked to above. TfL are predicting NO increase in passengers at all - continuous decline in pass jnys. Huge cuts to Inner London services - 10m kms axed next year, then another 3m then 2 years later a further 1m. (from 147m kms to 133m kms) Very modest increase in Outer London - 1m increase next year, 1m 2 years later then 2m extra 2 years later then 1m the year after. Grand total of 5m kms increase. Cross boundary services are protected at 10m kms each year. That might bring some relief to people on the Kent, Herts, Surrey and Essex borders. Quick flick through has revealed following : Page 23 bus subsidy staying at about £700m (£2m per day) Page 55 (p22 strategy) & p14 strategy : all new single deck bus will be zero emission from 2020 (says all, not just central London) Page 61 (p34 strategy) shows fares income rising from £4.8 bn to £6.6 bn (38% increase) so thats end of fare freeze then Page 81 (strategy) average bus speeds forecast to fall from 9.2mph to 9mph
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Post by Pilot on Dec 11, 2018 14:41:45 GMT
Nice to see zero emission but the current single deckers that entered recently or about to enter will be there to stay for like 10 years though.
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Post by snowman on Dec 11, 2018 15:00:16 GMT
Nice to see zero emission but the current single deckers that entered recently or about to enter will be there to stay for like 10 years though. I was surprised to see this, it might be fiction, even if it is stated in the plan twice (strategy page14 and p22) However there are many new single decks (especially in SW London), and I am expecting a bit of a purge on older ones that would not justify a euroVI upgrade during next 22 months. These new buses probably wont get replaced until early 2030s. I have predicted a pause in new buses in 2021-2022 (similar to the pause Spring 2006 - Autumn 2008 after completion of low floor conversion), and this could easily result in time to change from pure diesel single decks by time deliveries resume.
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Post by snoggle on Dec 11, 2018 16:18:55 GMT
Quick flick through has revealed following : Page 23 bus subsidy staying at about £700m (£2m per day) Page 55 (p22 strategy) all new single deck bus will be zero emission from 2020 (says all, not just central London) Page 61 (p34 strategy) shows fares income rising from £4.8 bn to £6.6 bn (38% increase) so thats end of fare freeze then Page 81 (strategy) average bus speeds forecast to fall from 9.2mph to 9mph I haven't got very far through it so far. I had spotted the fall in bus speeds - so much for making the bus network better. I assume the lower speed is the impact of endless 20 mph zones. I have yet to do a full comparative analysis of the numbers (and the inevitable FOI to get the missing detail!) but a very quick look at the bus kilometrage numbers shows that TfL appear (I do need to be certain) to have abandoned the proposed huge drop down to 449m kms which was planned for 2020/21. I assume this is a political thing - someone has clicked that cuts on that scale are politically untenable. Doesn't stop them reappearing in a future business plan when a Mayoral election is out of the way though. The big push on revenue is because TfL are assuming RPI+1% increases post 2020 (source - BBC). This is a change from the last plan which assumed RPI after 2020. It will be interesting to see if this revised assumption survives the politicians.
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Post by danorak on Dec 11, 2018 16:28:39 GMT
Quick flick through has revealed following : Page 23 bus subsidy staying at about £700m (£2m per day) Page 55 (p22 strategy) all new single deck bus will be zero emission from 2020 (says all, not just central London) Page 61 (p34 strategy) shows fares income rising from £4.8 bn to £6.6 bn (38% increase) so thats end of fare freeze then Page 81 (strategy) average bus speeds forecast to fall from 9.2mph to 9mph I haven't got very far through it so far. I had spotted the fall in bus speeds - so much for making the bus network better. I assume the lower speed is the impact of endless 20 mph zones. I have yet to do a full comparative analysis of the numbers (and the inevitable FOI to get the missing detail!) but a very quick look at the bus kilometrage numbers shows that TfL appear (I do need to be certain) to have abandoned the proposed huge drop down to 449m kms which was planned for 2020/21. I assume this is a political thing - someone has clicked that cuts on that scale are politically untenable. Doesn't stop them reappearing in a future business plan when a Mayoral election is out of the way though. The big push on revenue is because TfL are assuming RPI+1% increases post 2020 (source - BBC). This is a change from the last plan which assumed RPI after 2020. It will be interesting to see if this revised assumption survives the politicians. The 'blurb' on page 83 (or 78 depending on what number you're looking at) states "To support London’s growth and achieve the Mayor’s 2041 target of 80 per cent of all journeys being made by sustainable methods, bus patronage will need to increase by 40 per cent". Good luck with that!
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Post by snoggle on Dec 11, 2018 21:08:28 GMT
Interesting words in the financial section for buses in the Business Plan
That reads to me like a slight policy reversal (compared to the previous anticipated level of cuts) but also a veiled "use it or lose it" threat. In short we've decided to keep things broadly as they are but we have no money for flexibility so if ridership and revenue goes the wrong way then there will be more cuts.
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Post by redbus on Dec 11, 2018 23:28:30 GMT
Interesting words in the financial section for buses in the Business Plan That reads to me like a slight policy reversal (compared to the previous anticipated level of cuts) but also a veiled "use it or lose it" threat. In short we've decided to keep things broadly as they are but we have no money for flexibility so if ridership and revenue goes the wrong way then there will be more cuts. Very interesting, and when I get some time I will read the report (some Christmas reading perhaps!). What I am confused about is that on the one hand bus mileage in inner London is to reduce by 10K miles next year (presumably the recently closed consultation), but also another 3K the year after (2020). Elsewhere the report says they are not planning any further significant reductions, so where will the 3K drop in mileage in 2020 come from?
As for 'use the bus service or lose it', all I can say is that TfL need to make the service more attractive, journey times, direct buses etc and demand will strengthen. I believe this to be the case despite the other factors mentioned, indeed those factors make the need to make the service more attractive all the more important.
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Post by vjaska on Dec 12, 2018 0:16:54 GMT
I haven't got very far through it so far. I had spotted the fall in bus speeds - so much for making the bus network better. I assume the lower speed is the impact of endless 20 mph zones. I have yet to do a full comparative analysis of the numbers (and the inevitable FOI to get the missing detail!) but a very quick look at the bus kilometrage numbers shows that TfL appear (I do need to be certain) to have abandoned the proposed huge drop down to 449m kms which was planned for 2020/21. I assume this is a political thing - someone has clicked that cuts on that scale are politically untenable. Doesn't stop them reappearing in a future business plan when a Mayoral election is out of the way though. The big push on revenue is because TfL are assuming RPI+1% increases post 2020 (source - BBC). This is a change from the last plan which assumed RPI after 2020. It will be interesting to see if this revised assumption survives the politicians. The 'blurb' on page 83 (or 78 depending on what number you're looking at) states "To support London’s growth and achieve the Mayor’s 2041 target of 80 per cent of all journeys being made by sustainable methods, bus patronage will need to increase by 40 per cent". Good luck with that! Yes I read that earlier and thought, "yeah right, in your dreams"
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Post by snoggle on Dec 12, 2018 0:19:26 GMT
Interesting words in the financial section for buses in the Business Plan That reads to me like a slight policy reversal (compared to the previous anticipated level of cuts) but also a veiled "use it or lose it" threat. In short we've decided to keep things broadly as they are but we have no money for flexibility so if ridership and revenue goes the wrong way then there will be more cuts. Very interesting, and when I get some time I will read the report (some Christmas reading perhaps!). What I am confused about is that on the one hand bus mileage in inner London is to reduce by 10K miles next year (presumably the recently closed consultation), but also another 3K the year after (2020). Elsewhere the report says they are not planning any further significant reductions, so where will the 3K drop in mileage in 2020 come from?
As for 'use the bus service or lose it', all I can say is that TfL need to make the service more attractive, journey times, direct buses etc and demand will strengthen. I believe this to be the case despite the other factors mentioned, indeed those factors make the need to make the service more attractive all the more important.
10m fewer kms and then 3m kms. If the cuts were measured in just thousands of kms no one would notice them! My guess is that the smaller quantum is from known rationalisation plans due to revised road schemes plus an element of rationalisaton / simplification working through into Inner London routes. We have no idea how TfL have categorised each route and some routes can clearly in both Inner and Outer London. The other thing that is not clear is the extent to which the adjustments shown are actually "net" numbers. In other words there may be some quite large reductions in parts of Outer London offset by other increases. Of course that may not be correct - we don't know. I am assuming that if you simplify networks as TfL said they intend to do then you will get some level of reduced mileage in Outer London.
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Post by ServerKing on Dec 12, 2018 4:40:08 GMT
Who knows what will happen with a new PM and inevitable cabinet reshuffle / even a new government, plus the Crossrail fiasco and Khan paying bloated salaries to nobodies, there may not be the political will to flood the capital with new buses. Making them electric won't get more people on them, sadly. Congestion, 20 zones, general unpleasantness of bus travel (rowdy kids, barging on board, limited buggy space) will be hard to convince those living on the outskirts (the alleged land of milk and honey) to consider it. We've seen failed branding schemes, only have the money to fit less than 8 buses with LED blinds (excluding the Metroline Solos) plus operators will not want to shell out this time for a fleet of electric buses plus fit charging infrastructure. They will not be worth much after London life and cascading to other regions for the major players ( Arriva / GoAhead / Stagecoach) may prove hard...
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Post by snowman on Dec 16, 2019 13:56:06 GMT
The December 2019 Business Plan is now available content.tfl.gov.uk/finance-committee-item07-business-plan-2019.pdfPage 38 splits how £361m revenue is forgone, by various concessions Page 65 bus mileage staying about constant, bus extra £5m Km in outer London (so presumably 5m Km less in Central London), there is a table on page 119 with year by year split Page 86 after routes 43 and 134, contracts for over 200 more electric buses already issued (I can't tally this by route, but might include some tender awards that not yet announced) Page 112 more than 2000 buses will be zero emission by 2024-25 (and if first year of plan is only 200, then going to have to increase to over 400 per year) Page 117 bus usage is expected to fall to 2183m journeys 2022-23 with very marginally increase again
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