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Post by snoggle on Mar 27, 2019 19:20:44 GMT
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Post by LT 20181 on Mar 27, 2019 22:32:06 GMT
I wonder who the new buyer(s) is/are going to be.. 🤔
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Post by snoggle on Mar 27, 2019 23:56:08 GMT
I wonder who the new buyer(s) is/are going to be.. 🤔 The problem DB have is that they either float it off as a separate business or they try to sell it in bits. I think both options are fraught - where do you float the business? What investor appetite will there be? How quickly would Arriva as a business be under pressure from investors for a sell off / divestment? If Arriva try to split the business and sell it as national businesses or smaller units they will run into all sorts of problems. Who would want to take on the Northern rail franchise in the UK? They might find a taker for the Overground business but I doubt that is making much money and it has plenty of problems at the moment. Some potential purchasers would not be keen on being subsurvient to TfL. Cross Country is a mess because the government refuses to do the right thing and retender it on the basis of a proper expansion programme. Who would take Grand Central? I suspect its profitability is marginal at best and it will come under pressure from LNER as it starts to expand service levels when the Azumas come into service. Chiltern is due to be retendered at some point and I suspect Arriva will have a big scrap on their hands to keep it. I also suspect the future franchise will be nothing like the very long term deal that has actually served Chiltern's passengers very well. Expect a return to short term nonsense with all the downsides that has. The UK bus business is fraught with competition issues. First won't be buying anything so we can discount them. Go Ahead and Stagecoach couldn't buy Arriva North East due to competition concerns. Worth saying that some other group muscling in on the North East via an Arriva purchase would almost certainly result in a huge competitive reaction from both Stagecoach and Go Ahead as they fought to grab market share. Similar problems exist in Merseyside - Stagecoach would want that business but would be stopped from getting it. Would anyone want Arriva Wales or Arriva Kent Thamesside or Arriva in Surrey? Doubtful. The Shires is also pretty poor really despite there being a *lot* of potential in many of the markets served. Arriva just can't be bothered to exploit it. I could see Go Ahead wanting to get hold of places like Luton, Milton Keynes and High Wycombe. They have a small foothold in the latter via Carousel. The only possibly juicy bits are Arriva Yorkshire and Arriva Midlands as several businesses could bid to buy those with little concern from the competition authorities. The Dutch bus business is tied very heavily into the regular retendering programme by region. One day you have a business, the next you don't and hundreds of buses are spare because the new operator brings in their own new buses. How the Dutch manage to fund such waste I don't know. There are also rail contracts in the Netherlands - I assume they make some money. Looking at some recent financial numbers then UK Bus makes £20m before interest and taxation. UK Rail makes £42m on the same basis. Every aspect of the UK bus business is in decline because of market and cost pressures. The rail business seems in better health but that could easily change if the economy crashes.
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Post by vjaska on Mar 28, 2019 0:35:40 GMT
I wonder who the new buyer(s) is/are going to be.. 🤔 The problem DB have is that they either float it off as a separate business or they try to sell it in bits. I think both options are fraught - where do you float the business? What investor appetite will there be? How quickly would Arriva as a business be under pressure from investors for a sell off / divestment? If Arriva try to split the business and sell it as national businesses or smaller units they will run into all sorts of problems. Who would want to take on the Northern rail franchise in the UK? They might find a taker for the Overground business but I doubt that is making much money and it has plenty of problems at the moment. Some potential purchasers would not be keen on being subsurvient to TfL. Cross Country is a mess because the government refuses to do the right thing and retender it on the basis of a proper expansion programme. Who would take Grand Central? I suspect its profitability is marginal at best and it will come under pressure from LNER as it starts to expand service levels when the Azumas come into service. Chiltern is due to be retendered at some point and I suspect Arriva will have a big scrap on their hands to keep it. I also suspect the future franchise will be nothing like the very long term deal that has actually served Chiltern's passengers very well. Expect a return to short term nonsense with all the downsides that has. The UK bus business is fraught with competition issues. First won't be buying anything so we can discount them. Go Ahead and Stagecoach couldn't buy Arriva North East due to competition concerns. Worth saying that some other group muscling in on the North East via an Arriva purchase would almost certainly result in a huge competitive reaction from both Stagecoach and Go Ahead as they fought to grab market share. Similar problems exist in Merseyside - Stagecoach would want that business but would be stopped from getting it. Would anyone want Arriva Wales or Arriva Kent Thamesside or Arriva in Surrey? Doubtful. The Shires is also pretty poor really despite there being a *lot* of potential in many of the markets served. Arriva just can't be bothered to exploit it. I could see Go Ahead wanting to get hold of places like Luton, Milton Keynes and High Wycombe. They have a small foothold in the latter via Carousel. The only possibly juicy bits are Arriva Yorkshire and Arriva Midlands as several businesses could bid to buy those with little concern from the competition authorities. The Dutch bus business is tied very heavily into the regular retendering programme by region. One day you have a business, the next you don't and hundreds of buses are spare because the new operator brings in their own new buses. How the Dutch manage to fund such waste I don't know. There are also rail contracts in the Netherlands - I assume they make some money. Looking at some recent financial numbers then UK Bus makes £20m before interest and taxation. UK Rail makes £42m on the same basis. Every aspect of the UK bus business is in decline because of market and cost pressures. The rail business seems in better health but that could easily change if the economy crashes. I've heard elsewhere that it's expected to be sold all together rather than broken up in bits - splitting it certainly seems much tougher to sell.
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Post by capitalomnibus on Mar 28, 2019 10:36:08 GMT
I was expecting this announcement last month, better late than never...
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Post by Pilot on Mar 28, 2019 12:35:04 GMT
Would it stay as Arriva brand when sold or name change?
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Post by george on Mar 28, 2019 14:14:33 GMT
Would it stay as Arriva brand when sold or name change? So that really depends who buys it. If the company was to go public or gets brought by someone like a private equality firm them the arriva name will still likely be used. If it was to get brought by another transport company like SNCF who might want to get a foothold in the uk train and bus market then the arriva name would probably be dropped and replaced with SNCF.
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Post by capitalomnibus on Mar 30, 2019 12:59:29 GMT
This week the DB Supervisory Board instructed the DB Management Board to explore options for selling Arriva.
This includes assessing the option of selling up to 100 per cent of the shares in Arriva to one or more investors, and the option of an IPO. From DB’s perspective, the sale of Arriva would help to limit the increase in DB's debt, while also putting Arriva in a position to continue its positive growth path.
Below are some key questions. You’ll be kept updated as soon as there is something definite to report.
What is the announcement about?
Deutsche Bahn, Arriva’s parent company, is exploring options to sell or to take Arriva public. A potential sale of Arriva will not change the positive prospects for Arriva’s business opportunities.
What does this mean for me?
Arriva is a trusted, strong and successful business, with great growth opportunities, running essential services for our customers, and this will not change as a consequence of either a sale or an IPO. For our employees it’s business as usual and we continue with our plans for 2019.
What does this mean for our customers?
There’s absolutely no change to our commitment to delivering the best possible services for all our customers and clients.
What happens next?
Exploring the options to sell Arriva will take some time – but we will keep you updated.
What is an IPO?
An IPO is an abbreviation for ‘Initial public offering’ which is the process by which the shares of a company are listed on one or more stock exchanges and are sold to investors.
What is the DB Supervisory Board?
The Deutsche Bahn (DB) Supervisory Board has 20 members: ten are shareholders and ten are employee representatives. The main task of the DB Supervisory Board is to supervise the DB Management Board.
What is the DB Management Board?
The Deutsche Bahn Management Board has direct responsibility for the eight business and service units of the Deutsche Bahn Group. The business units are: DB Long Distance, DB Regio, DB Arriva, DB Cargo, DB Schenker, DB Netze Track, DB Netze Stations, and DB Netze Energy.
Media enquiry about the development?
Please do not respond to media enquiries, they should be referred to DB, or via the Group Communications team.
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Post by capitalomnibus on Mar 30, 2019 13:00:01 GMT
To: All UK Bus Colleagues
Business Update DB exploring options to sell Arriva
Dear colleagues,
It has been announced that the Deutsche Bahn (DB) Supervisory Board have instructed the DB Management Board to explore options for selling Arriva.
Our Chief Executive Officer (CEO), Manfred Rudhart, said: “The DB Supervisory Board instructed the DB Management Board to explore options for selling Arriva. This includes assessing the option of selling up to 100 per cent of the shares in Arriva to one or more investors, and the option of an IPO. From DB’s perspective, the sale of Arriva would help to limit the increase in DB's debt, while also putting Arriva in a position to continue its positive growth path.”
Decisions like this take time and we will continue to update you as the situation develops. For now, please find attached some initial questions and answers regarding this announcement.
Further information on this will be published tomorrow on One Arriva Net.
Warm regards,
Iain
Iain Jago Interim Managing Director, UK Bus
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Post by capitalomnibus on Mar 30, 2019 13:00:25 GMT
That was earlier in the week, HTH
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Post by nickfreckle on Apr 18, 2019 15:12:17 GMT
Stagecoach have just completed the sale of their North American arm. Don't be surprised to see them buy out Arriva, on the proviso from the competition and merger's bods that in certain areas, they have to sell off some of the routes and garages, like the North east for example, maybe even London.
I think they'd definitely have an interest in the bits other companies wouldn't really want, especially in Kent, as they'd have full coverage from London, all the way through to the coast.
If anything, I think it makes sense for Stagecoach to get it, to fill in the few gaps where they don't operate.
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Post by SILENCED on Apr 18, 2019 15:26:16 GMT
Stagecoach have just completed the sale of their North American arm. Don't be surprised to see them buy out Arriva, on the proviso from the competition and merger's bods that in certain areas, they have to sell off some of the routes and garages, like the North east for example, maybe even London. I think they'd definitely have an interest in the bits other companies wouldn't really want, especially in Kent, as they'd have full coverage from London, all the way through to the coast. If anything, I think it makes sense for Stagecoach to get it, to fill in the few gaps where they don't operate. Not been keeping up to date with Stagecoach worldwide operations ... if they have disposed of the NA operations, UK Rail seemingly heading for extinction, other than UK Bus ... is anything else left?
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Post by nickfreckle on Apr 18, 2019 15:35:58 GMT
Stagecoach have just completed the sale of their North American arm. Don't be surprised to see them buy out Arriva, on the proviso from the competition and merger's bods that in certain areas, they have to sell off some of the routes and garages, like the North east for example, maybe even London. I think they'd definitely have an interest in the bits other companies wouldn't really want, especially in Kent, as they'd have full coverage from London, all the way through to the coast. If anything, I think it makes sense for Stagecoach to get it, to fill in the few gaps where they don't operate. Not been keeping up to date with Stagecoach worldwide operations ... if they have disposed of the NA operations, UK Rail seemingly heading for extinction, other than UK Bus ... is anything else left? UK Bus, Megabus, Sheffield Supertram. What easier way to get back in the UK Rail market than to use the proceeds of the North American Business sale and buy Arriva's operations? It's not an 'if' they have sold the NA operations, it's complete according to Martin Griffiths on Stagecoach's employee website.
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Post by SILENCED on Apr 18, 2019 15:41:21 GMT
Not been keeping up to date with Stagecoach worldwide operations ... if they have disposed of the NA operations, UK Rail seemingly heading for extinction, other than UK Bus ... is anything else left? UK Bus, Megabus, Sheffield Supertram. What easier way to get back in the UK Rail market than to use the proceeds of the North American Business sale and buy Arriva's operations? It's not an 'if' they have sold the NA operations, it's complete according to Martin Griffiths on Stagecoach's employee website. Only issue with that, is that the proceeds are reportedly needed to reduce debt, and DB will be looking for 10 times the amount they received ... cant see it myself ... honestly think there is more chance of a group taking over the smaller Stagecoach, than Stagecoach acquiring Arriva!
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Post by busaholic on Apr 18, 2019 15:46:27 GMT
Stagecoach have just completed the sale of their North American arm. Don't be surprised to see them buy out Arriva, on the proviso from the competition and merger's bods that in certain areas, they have to sell off some of the routes and garages, like the North east for example, maybe even London. I think they'd definitely have an interest in the bits other companies wouldn't really want, especially in Kent, as they'd have full coverage from London, all the way through to the coast. If anything, I think it makes sense for Stagecoach to get it, to fill in the few gaps where they don't operate. Stagecoach would be in the same position in the bus industry as Tesco were in the grocery industry a few years ago if such a sale was able to go ahead, albeit with a few restrictions. Tesco's comedown since then has been almost entirely self-inflicted, although some of it lies at the door of internet orders which also affect their competitors. The Monopolies people were ineffective against Tesco just as they've been almost useless against Stagecoach, and other large operators, in both bus and train operations in this country. Even so, I can't see that Stagecoach would be allowed to control virtually all the major bus traffic south of the Thames from Thanet right out to Wiltshire and Dorset, excepting Go-Ahead in the Brighton and Swindon areas and Reading Buses in Berkshire. It'd be a vast 'monopoly' which couldn't be solved by the enforced sale of operations in one small area, as occurred in Preston. Sainsbury/Asda merger was expected to be given the nod after a suitable number of stores were divested, but the Competitions people raised objections at every level, such that the deal is as good as dead. I think there's a good chance that Stagecoach will not be allowed to buy Arriva wholesale.
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