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Post by route53 on Oct 15, 2019 16:19:27 GMT
With the Bakerloo line set to venture as far as Lewisham at least in the next decade or so, how do you think bus routes in the areas affected be altered?
Personally I can see the 53 being cut back to E&C permanently at this point, with the 453 being rerouted since that route closely parallels the Bakerloo line from E&C to Marylebone and by 2029 the Bakerloo Extension will serve New Cross, a place in which is served by the 453.
Any other predictions?
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Post by lundnah on Oct 15, 2019 16:35:59 GMT
With the Bakerloo line set to venture as far as Lewisham at least in the next decade or so, how do you think bus routes in the areas affected be altered? Personally I can see the 53 being cut back to E&C permanently at this point, with the 453 being rerouted since that route closely parallels the Bakerloo line from E&C to Marylebone and by 2029 the Bakerloo Extension will serve New Cross, a place in which is served by the 453. Any other predictions? I wouldn't want to speculate on bus changes that might or might not happen to connect to a tube line that might or might not be built in ten years time. |
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Post by busaholic on Oct 15, 2019 17:31:42 GMT
With the Bakerloo line set to venture as far as Lewisham at least in the next decade or so, how do you think bus routes in the areas affected be altered? Personally I can see the 53 being cut back to E&C permanently at this point, with the 453 being rerouted since that route closely parallels the Bakerloo line from E&C to Marylebone and by 2029 the Bakerloo Extension will serve New Cross, a place in which is served by the 453. Any other predictions? I wouldn't want to speculate on bus changes that might or might not happen to connect to a tube line that might or might not be built in ten years time. I wouldn't want to speculate that there'll be any buses entering Zones 1 and 2 by 2029.  |
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Post by rif153 on Oct 15, 2019 18:16:27 GMT
With the Bakerloo line set to venture as far as Lewisham at least in the next decade or so, how do you think bus routes in the areas affected be altered? Personally I can see the 53 being cut back to E&C permanently at this point, with the 453 being rerouted since that route closely parallels the Bakerloo line from E&C to Marylebone and by 2029 the Bakerloo Extension will serve New Cross, a place in which is served by the 453. Any other predictions? I think this spells bad news for bus services along Old Kent Road. There's no way TfL will keep such a high service level along there once (should it happen) the Bakerloo Line extension opens. I think a frequency reduction for the 453 is on the cards as that will closely parallel the line as you say. Perhaps there'll also be a frequency cut for the 172, with that also traversing the full length of the Old Kent Road. The interesting one will be the 53. I do think there's a good chance it will be cutback to Elephant, and I'm in the camp that it was only a lack of stand space that spared the Lambeth North-Elephant section of the route. I really hope the 53 isn't cutback to Elephant though. |
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Post by John tuthill on Oct 15, 2019 19:30:28 GMT
With the Bakerloo line set to venture as far as Lewisham at least in the next decade or so, how do you think bus routes in the areas affected be altered? Personally I can see the 53 being cut back to E&C permanently at this point, with the 453 being rerouted since that route closely parallels the Bakerloo line from E&C to Marylebone and by 2029 the Bakerloo Extension will serve New Cross, a place in which is served by the 453. Any other predictions? Just one. Since this has been talked about since the late 40s, by the time it actually happens, we'll all be using hoverboards  |
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Post by twobellstogo on Oct 16, 2019 13:24:59 GMT
With the Bakerloo line set to venture as far as Lewisham at least in the next decade or so, how do you think bus routes in the areas affected be altered? Personally I can see the 53 being cut back to E&C permanently at this point, with the 453 being rerouted since that route closely parallels the Bakerloo line from E&C to Marylebone and by 2029 the Bakerloo Extension will serve New Cross, a place in which is served by the 453. Any other predictions? I think the 453 could go entirely. 53 I think will be ok. One route from New Cross Gate to Lewisham to go (for sake of argument I’ll say 321 pinned back to Lewisham, but could easily be anything except the 136). On the credit side maybe the 343 will enjoy a frequency increase to feed people into New Cross Gate. |
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Post by snoggle on Oct 16, 2019 13:36:03 GMT
While I share the general cynicism about predicting such an unclear future my sense is that trunk services would be rationalised esp on Old Kent Road. I would also foresee a restructuring of local / feeder routes to feed the tube and serve new housing / unserved areas.
Without a view on timing / finances any debate is highly speculative and likely to be wrong! Always worth remembering that LT practice was always to cut bus costs if the tube gets extended. Nothing has changed under TfL.
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Post by danorak on Oct 16, 2019 14:00:23 GMT
I'd expect the 53/453 to be seriously rationalised and the 21 to be under threat between Bricklayers Arms and Lewisham.
Maybe 53 New Cross Gate to Plumstead
172/453 Aldwych to Deptford Bridge
21 Newington Green to Brockley
363 County Hall to Crystal Palace
But there's a lot that could happen between now and then.
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Post by vjaska on Oct 16, 2019 14:32:47 GMT
Whilst I agree it's highly likely cuts would be made, don't forget though that the 2 has increased in frequency alongside the Victoria Line increasing in frequency over the years and the 2 parallels the Victoria Line for a considerable distance (technically the 196 does as well but between Vauxhall & Brixton and via a more indirect route).
Obviously far too soon to speculate but the 53/453 is the obvious one to be messed with which is a shame - 453 to disappear or re-routed locally with the 53 cut back to Elephant (if space can be found) or Bricklayers Arms as TfL has shown it has no issues terminating buses before a major point. I also predict something may work through from the central or bottom end of Old Kent Road to Camberwell (not brave enough to say to continue through to Brixton lol).
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Post by route53 on Oct 16, 2019 15:32:00 GMT
With the Bakerloo line set to venture as far as Lewisham at least in the next decade or so, how do you think bus routes in the areas affected be altered? Personally I can see the 53 being cut back to E&C permanently at this point, with the 453 being rerouted since that route closely parallels the Bakerloo line from E&C to Marylebone and by 2029 the Bakerloo Extension will serve New Cross, a place in which is served by the 453. Any other predictions? I think the 453 could go entirely. 53 I think will be ok. One route from New Cross Gate to Lewisham to go (for sake of argument I’ll say 321 pinned back to Lewisham, but could easily be anything except the 136). On the credit side maybe the 343 will enjoy a frequency increase to feed people into New Cross Gate. I think that the loud and vocal voices in Woolwich, Charlton and Blackheath would object to any further cuts to the 53 so I would agree that the 453 will most likely face the axe while the 53 is either cut back to E&C or rerouted at that point to London Bridge or to Kennington (random I know), I cannot see TfL being able to get away with doing away with the route or cutting it back further than E&C |
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Post by vjaska on Oct 16, 2019 17:22:41 GMT
I think the 453 could go entirely. 53 I think will be ok. One route from New Cross Gate to Lewisham to go (for sake of argument I’ll say 321 pinned back to Lewisham, but could easily be anything except the 136). On the credit side maybe the 343 will enjoy a frequency increase to feed people into New Cross Gate. I think that the loud and vocal voices in Woolwich, Charlton and Blackheath would object to any further cuts to the 53 so I would agree that the 453 will most likely face the axe while the 53 is either cut back to E&C or rerouted at that point to London Bridge or to Kennington (random I know), I cannot see TfL being able to get away with doing away with the route or cutting it back further than E&C They didn’t listen to those people when it was cut back to County Hall so I think if TfL were to cut it again, they would ignore them once more as they’ve shown on many occasions that passengers are an afterthought. Kennington has two places to terminate from memory and neither are suitable for different reasons. Kennington Lane is mainly used in emergencies when zone 1 is closed off and the stand is small with an awkward turn around from memory whilst Kennington Church is where Abellio do their changeovers and can get very busy. |
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Post by Pilot on Oct 16, 2019 21:04:46 GMT
I'd be a lot more worried about routes when extended to Catford and onwards, but that aside I don't see any bus routes being cut, you'll get some frequency cuts on buses like 136/321/436 and that's about it I'd say...2030 is a long time away still, probably won't even be done by then as well lol.
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