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Post by snoggle on Apr 22, 2019 21:32:05 GMT
If Sadiq Khan is prepared to prove he's not Jeremy Corbyn and admit that circumstances have changed enough for him to reconsider his bus fares freeze policy (he doesn't have to say he was even a teeny weeny bit wrong at the time to promise it) then there may be some hope of increased revenue: after all, a switch to Uber or the tube/NR isn't going to work, although there might be a loss of a few ablebodied short distance passengers at first. It all pales into insignificance beside the loss pf passengers to the combination of increased journey times and, in the central area particularly, all the faffing around having to change buses because of network changes. I may be proved wrong come early 2020 but I do not expect to see another 4 year fares freeze in the Labour manifesto. There is plenty of supporting narrative to justify increasing fares in the future - "government have axed the subsidy","TfL is now much more efficient but now needs more income","people have benefitted from a 4 year freeze unlike all their other costs that have risen","I want to deliver further improvements and need more income to achieve that","the unfortunate delays to Crossrail mean TfL need every penny of extra income" blah blah blah. I am sure the narrative is already written and will no doubt progressively emerge over the coming months. The scene setting is already taking place with numerous pro Tory newspapers and commentators taking every opportunity to criticise the Mayor. Whatever Spending Review settlement is achieved with government concerning TfL's finances will be absolutely crucial in framing the manifestos of all candidates for May 2020. While potentially very difficult politically I still think the DfT / Treasury will try to strong arm the Mayor and TfL into accepting future fare increases as part of a settlement. Obviously that could be played against the government by the Mayor as trying to circumvent devolution, London voters' wishes etc etc but who knows what happens behind closed doors.
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Post by southlondonbus on Apr 22, 2019 21:39:39 GMT
There is still a limit to how much fares can fairly rise. The large deficit TFL have won't be filled by adding 20p to single bus fares etc so cost cutting will be here to stay. Expect more freq reductions and maybe even route withdrawals in bus usage drops to counteract possible Piccadilly, Bakerloo line increases when they get new trains in the 2020s.
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Post by busaholic on Apr 22, 2019 21:53:57 GMT
There is still a limit to how much fares can fairly rise. The large deficit TFL have won't be filled by adding 20p to single bus fares etc so cost cutting will be here to stay. Expect more freq reductions and maybe even route withdrawals in bus usage drops to counteract possible Piccadilly, Bakerloo line increases when they get new trains in the 2020s. Well, I'd add more than 20p!! From what I read those extra trains are a LONG way off. I still maintain that it'll be prolonged travelling times, exacerbated by excessive regulation when traffic levels are lower than usual, that'll drive most people off buses, and TfL can't wash their hands of responsibility for those matters.
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Post by redbus on Apr 22, 2019 22:05:54 GMT
It seems clear to me that there will be fare rises after the four year fares freeze, starting January 2020, maybe a few months sooner. I think the question isn't if, but by how much. There hasn't been a word from the Mayor about any fares freeze extension, and I don't see he has the money to do it even if he wanted to. The Mayor has put up his share of Council Tax and so on, so I think fares will now go up. Further looking at the situation politically, is he really going to get many more votes by promising an extension of fares freeze? I think not as those voters will be voting for him anyway.
Remember any fares increase will not be confined to buses, it'll affect the tube as well. I can quite easily see an above average tube fare increase in Zone 1, balanced out elsewhere, but due to the number of passengers in Zone 1 it will result in a tidy increase in income.
I can't see a meaningful reduction in passengers as a result of a fares increase, unless disproportionate, as passengers have little place else to go.
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Post by george on Apr 22, 2019 22:14:12 GMT
I wonder if in time LTs would then end up doing odd workings on certain non-LT routes, in the same way double-deckers are often used on single decker routes. 32 had that when at W.
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Post by sid on Apr 22, 2019 22:15:15 GMT
I'm going to ask a properly unbiased question here. Once open boarding is eliminated ( in theory) from LTs, what advantage can be said to be gained from conversion of a route to LT, ignoring ownership of the vehicle being retained by TFL? I personally can't see how they will stop open boarding on the routes in central London especially as they had to move the VHRs from the 13/139 as passengers tried boarding via the rear doors.
Maybe they should try and push the LTs out to less busy suburban routes a reverse of what they did in the early 80s when they needed to get more Routemasters onto central London routes.
It really shouldn't be that difficult, it was done in Berlin. I'm not entirely convinced that was the reason VHR's were removed from the 139, there seems to be no such problems with the VHP's on the 37 which shares part of the route with LT's and they occasionally appear on the 63 and 363.
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Post by snoggle on Apr 22, 2019 22:15:50 GMT
There is still a limit to how much fares can fairly rise. The large deficit TFL have won't be filled by adding 20p to single bus fares etc so cost cutting will be here to stay. Expect more freq reductions and maybe even route withdrawals in bus usage drops to counteract possible Piccadilly, Bakerloo line increases when they get new trains in the 2020s. You will be lucky to see the Picc Line trains fully in service by 2025. Note that there is no money for the signalling upgrade on the Picc so any uplift in capacity will be marginal at best. There is also no money whatsoever for replacement of trains on the Central, W&C or Bakerloo lines. It may be late 2030s before any more tube trains arrive after the Picc Line. To try to start speculating about bus cuts because of deep tube upgrades is not sensible. A whole load of things to either support your argument or contradict it could emerge over the next decade. I don't expect to see any funding for works to upgrade / extend the Bakerloo or upgrade the Central / W&C in the Spending Review settlement. I also don't believe the Picc signalling upgrade will be funded either. The government will simply refuse to spend billions on the tube because that's its current narrative. London has to fund what London wants - see the position re Crossrail.
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Post by southlondonbus on Apr 23, 2019 6:00:31 GMT
Yikes. Imagine the Bakerloo line trains in another 10-15 years.
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Post by Eastlondoner62 on Apr 23, 2019 11:30:23 GMT
Yikes. Imagine the Bakerloo line trains in another 10-15 years. The state of them now is worrying let alone then! Probably the only line I try to actively avoid due to the awful state of the trains however north of Baker Street you don't have much in the way of alternatives and at the rate TfL are going there probably won't be much in the way of buses either.
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Post by twobellstogo on Apr 23, 2019 11:43:57 GMT
Yikes. Imagine the Bakerloo line trains in another 10-15 years. The state of them now is worrying let alone then! Probably the only line I try to actively avoid due to the awful state of the trains however north of Baker Street you don't have much in the way of alternatives and at the rate TfL are going there probably won't be much in the way of buses either. I like the 1972 stock 😂 *tiptoes away *
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Post by M1104 on Apr 23, 2019 12:36:48 GMT
The state of them now is worrying let alone then! Probably the only line I try to actively avoid due to the awful state of the trains however north of Baker Street you don't have much in the way of alternatives and at the rate TfL are going there probably won't be much in the way of buses either. I like the 1972 stock 😂 *tiptoes away * Me too, plus the 73s as well *runs away on kickdown*
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Post by vjaska on Apr 23, 2019 13:20:14 GMT
I like the 1972 stock 😂 *tiptoes away * Me too, plus the 73s as well *runs away on kickdown* Me three Don’t forget me when you two are running lol.
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Post by snoggle on Apr 23, 2019 13:49:29 GMT
Yikes. Imagine the Bakerloo line trains in another 10-15 years. Well TfL are spending £££ms on the 1972 stock to lengthen its life. However any train is going to struggle in terms of reliability beyond its normal 40 year life especially where a lot of the technology is obsolete. I fear that the Bakerloo Line will be in some sort of crisis well before the trains reach their 60th year in service. The only small saving grace is that it is one of the quietest (in relative terms) lines on the network.
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Post by southlondonbus on Apr 23, 2019 14:24:52 GMT
I suppose any money for new stock will have to go on new ones for the northern line extension.
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Post by snoggle on Apr 23, 2019 17:14:32 GMT
I suppose any money for new stock will have to go on new ones for the northern line extension. No. The NLE will be worked from the existing Northern Line fleet. It has a fairly large "float" between total fleet size and what is scheduled for service. Therefore it's not impossible to find a couple of extra trains to run the extension. The only new trains on order for the Picc Line. There are NO firm / funded plans to buy any new trains. The planned extras for the Jubilee and Northern Line were cancelled as were the incremental upgrades on those lines. This is what happens when TfL's finances go to sh*t - any large scale, expensive project gets cancelled.
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