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Post by ServerKing on Mar 1, 2018 3:29:58 GMT
I think I'd go along with a lot of that. It's interesting that you point to problems with Overground/TfL Rail when it has been held up as the panacea for services such as Southeastern's metro. The early years of Overground were 'low hanging fruit' (bleurgh): Silverlink etc were so neglected it would have been hard not to do better. And much of the upswing was due to the extended East London Line. Now it gets trickier, but that is for another thread. Apologies but this is going to be a tad off topic for this thread. To my eyes there are a couple of major issues with rail. TfL Rail had a reasonable start and got the 315s into shape. They have also managed as best as they can to cope with a huge increase in usage because of simpler, cheaper fares and the route being on the tube map. However they are suffering with the fall out from Crossrail works on the line plus the need to get the 345s into service. There are far too many infrastructure issues despite all the money that's been spent and station works are running late. They are also rapidly running out of time with the 345s because they are backing up at Derby as they are built and 315s are not being released because the delivered 345s are not reliable enough. This can't carry on for much longer given the need to get 345s into service in both east and west London. There are also signalling system issues on the Heathrow tunnel which are believed to be being caused by the 345s themselves. I have been sceptical for a long while about progress on the new CR stations and I can't see how many of them will be ready to be handed over to the operators in 2-4 months. The delayed start to testing in the core is another worry - they have to step up testing and quickly if they are to debug CBTC signalling in situ. On Overground the demand growth has stalled and it seems a year of closures on the GOBLIN has depressed usage (TfL are trying to get people using it again). The new contract is much more demanding on Arriva and Network Rail and I suspect that Arriva made some heroic assumptions to get costs down. To my "amateur eyes" the operation feels pressured with ongoing train reliability problems which seem to keep repeating themselves. This rarely happened under the joint Arriva / MTR operation. I can't see how a pressured train maintenance set up is going to cope with bringing in a lot of class 710s without letting class 172 and 378 reliability slip in the changeover period. If the 710s are unreliable initially (quite likely) then the potential for a lot of people to be delayed is there. I should just say I hope none of the above traumas happen but the danger signs are there. The risks have to be managed very well to keep disruption under control. "The Bus Driver's Son" hasn't impressed me so far. Congestion is up, he's only stopped the LTs because they were Boris' project. Diesel tax is one thing, but the Stealth Congestion Charge in the form of ULEZ is wrong. That comes in next year. As for the GOBLIN, the first year of closure when nothing much happened wasn't good, hopefully with longer trains people will return to suing it, but so far it's another unreliable part of TfL. Can't see why they can't bed in or test these new trains on other lines like the West Anglia Inners. 315s are looking tired. The cupboard is bare, even seen in the lack of gritting despite the fact they knew the snow was coming...
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Post by capitalomnibus on Mar 1, 2018 11:01:03 GMT
Apologies but this is going to be a tad off topic for this thread. To my eyes there are a couple of major issues with rail. TfL Rail had a reasonable start and got the 315s into shape. They have also managed as best as they can to cope with a huge increase in usage because of simpler, cheaper fares and the route being on the tube map. However they are suffering with the fall out from Crossrail works on the line plus the need to get the 345s into service. There are far too many infrastructure issues despite all the money that's been spent and station works are running late. They are also rapidly running out of time with the 345s because they are backing up at Derby as they are built and 315s are not being released because the delivered 345s are not reliable enough. This can't carry on for much longer given the need to get 345s into service in both east and west London. There are also signalling system issues on the Heathrow tunnel which are believed to be being caused by the 345s themselves. I have been sceptical for a long while about progress on the new CR stations and I can't see how many of them will be ready to be handed over to the operators in 2-4 months. The delayed start to testing in the core is another worry - they have to step up testing and quickly if they are to debug CBTC signalling in situ. On Overground the demand growth has stalled and it seems a year of closures on the GOBLIN has depressed usage (TfL are trying to get people using it again). The new contract is much more demanding on Arriva and Network Rail and I suspect that Arriva made some heroic assumptions to get costs down. To my "amateur eyes" the operation feels pressured with ongoing train reliability problems which seem to keep repeating themselves. This rarely happened under the joint Arriva / MTR operation. I can't see how a pressured train maintenance set up is going to cope with bringing in a lot of class 710s without letting class 172 and 378 reliability slip in the changeover period. If the 710s are unreliable initially (quite likely) then the potential for a lot of people to be delayed is there. I should just say I hope none of the above traumas happen but the danger signs are there. The risks have to be managed very well to keep disruption under control. "The Bus Driver's Son" hasn't impressed me so far. Congestion is up, he's only stopped the LTs because they were Boris' project. Diesel tax is one thing, but the Stealth Congestion Charge in the form of ULEZ is wrong. That comes in next year. As for the GOBLIN, the first year of closure when nothing much happened wasn't good, hopefully with longer trains people will return to suing it, but so far it's another unreliable part of TfL. Can't see why they can't bed in or test these new trains on other lines like the West Anglia Inners. 315s are looking tired. The cupboard is bare, even seen in the lack of gritting despite the fact they knew the snow was coming... Didn't realise they had so much litigation against them.
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Post by ServerKing on Mar 1, 2018 15:15:23 GMT
"The Bus Driver's Son" hasn't impressed me so far. Congestion is up, he's only stopped the LTs because they were Boris' project. Diesel tax is one thing, but the Stealth Congestion Charge in the form of ULEZ is wrong. That comes in next year. As for the GOBLIN, the first year of closure when nothing much happened wasn't good, hopefully with longer trains people will return to suing it, but so far it's another unreliable part of TfL. Can't see why they can't bed in or test these new trains on other lines like the West Anglia Inners. 315s are looking tired. The cupboard is bare, even seen in the lack of gritting despite the fact they knew the snow was coming... Didn't realise they had so much litigation against them. dam keyboard and early typing, lol... using it
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Post by busaholic on Mar 1, 2018 21:22:38 GMT
No lessons learned, apparently, from the spiral of bus decline that, arguably, started in the late 1950s, continued through the 60s, intensified in the 70s and almost went out of control in the 80s. Irregular frequencies almost became the norm and passengers deserted in droves, some never to return. It almost makes me weep, because I see nobody at the top in TfL or with real influence in City Hall who both cares and, more importantly perhaps, understands about bus travel. The Hendy/Daniels days are not only over but may never return, or not until bus services are driven into the ground, and those days seem so long ago already: were they just a dream? I'm going to be a bit controversial here. I'm not sure I view Leon's tenure at Surface Transport as being one of great success. While he understands buses I think he was pulled in 50,000 different directions on a range of policy initiatives which were often in conflict. That reflects the chaotic policy agenda foisted on London by Boris where far too many things were in conflict and were never sorted out because there was no desire to fix them at City Hall level. I doubt there was any recognition of the inconsistencies at top level at City Hall but you can bet the senior people in TfL knew the mess they were being forced to create. Ironically I think the seeds to bus success were probably sown in the 1990s under LRT control. Not everyone favours privatisation because of what it meant for "old LT" but it did give a spur to the operators to be creative and try different things. OK some of those were not universal successes but at least someone tried. Higher frequencies / lower wait times and opening up areas with minibus based services started to get people back on the buses which provided the eventual basis for what came in the LRT era. As more and more money was being spent then processes and procedures had to be tightened up and inevitably this has built in rigidity to service and vehicle specifications that a core of forum members regularly "comment" upon . Where we are now is probably a temporary downward step but it may take a decade to sort out. We are seeing the "backwash" of the old policy regime which has had an effect on usage levels as has new technology. As I have said before TfL face some severe challenges from the new policy regime, from "brave new world" thinking based on thin experience plus the external pressures that they cannot control. I am sceptical they can handle these issues well without making serious short term mistakes that will then need "fixing" later. The Mayor has no real bus policy for his first term and will no doubt not be very bothered if not much good news happens by 2020. I doubt buses will gain much political traction given TfL have been making cuts for 5 years if anyone was paying attention. There's been no fall out at all. If he seeks a second term and wins then very considerable pressure will exist to see some delivery. I fear the Mayor is repeating the mistake Boris made which is that you say things, write a strategy, appoint a deputy and then everything just sails along doesn't it. Err wrong. Boris's bete noir was tube reliability and he had a mad panic in 2011 and forced TfL to throw £50m at the tube to "sort it out" before it became a serious electoral liability. I suspect TfL Rail / Crossrail and Overground reliability may become this Mayor's problem child. MTR Crossrail seem to be having horrendous problems on the Shenfield line and even a brief sample of social media commentary shows a lot of upset about the service. If any of this spreads to the western services and then the Crossrail core the Mayor will be in serious trouble. Arriva also seem to be struggling with some aspects of the Overground regime - far too many train faults and not just in the cold. It also faces the challenge, like MTR Crossrail, of getting a lot of new trains into service where it's clear Bombardier are struggling to stabilise the class 345s. If the Mayor has unreliable rail services right across London on this watch as we head through 2019 then he's in trouble politically and financially. Poor performing services won't attract people to use them and if Crossrail revenue is below target to any appreciable extent then that's hundreds of millions of pounds not in TfL coffers. If the Tories in London were even half awake on transport matters they would be putting stakes in the ground now to start pointing out the problems. The cycling lobby might also prove to be a problem for the Mayor but it's too early to tell how "fed up" they are. The other huge area of disappointment, but outwith the remit of this forum, is housing and the promises the Mayor made here that he has struggled to fulfill. I'm an observer from (mostly) afar these days, so can't and don't claim to be in the eye of the storm, as it were, though I veraciously devour what material I can, given my limitations with newer technology and general antipathy towards social media.
I always got the impression that Leon Daniels was Robin to Peter Hendy's Batman, so wasn't surprised that when he got put in the spotlight he faltered with his lines: some people who thrive as sidekicks can't cope with being the centre of attention.
You're probably right about the initiatives under London Regional Transport, too: my attention at the time was diverted to trying to build a 'new life' out of the capital coupled with a family tragedy that, though bringing me to London on numerous occasions meant the time was spent mostly at solicitors and Coroner's Office, etc. Hendy's Centrewest, though (and, I declare not an interest but the fact I knew his parents, so got to meet him,etc) and a couple of the other soon-to-be- privatised companies (London United springs to mind, for one) do seem to have tried some new things, some of which inevitably failed but others were great successes.
I'm not sure what you mean by the bus cuts starting five years ago, though, for those who were looking. I do remember a cut in frequency to the 432, seemingly out of the blue, and the scrapping of the Night element of the 75 and 113, but not much else, unless you're including the v small reductions in frequency in peaks on the 6, 16 and 23, but they were countered by simultaneous increases on many other routes, and even the former could probably be mostly explained by the newish 414.
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Post by snoggle on Mar 2, 2018 1:08:13 GMT
I'm not sure what you mean by the bus cuts starting five years ago, though, for those who were looking. I do remember a cut in frequency to the 432, seemingly out of the blue, and the scrapping of the Night element of the 75 and 113, but not much else, unless you're including the v small reductions in frequency in peaks on the 6, 16 and 23, but they were countered by simultaneous increases on many other routes, and even the former could probably be mostly explained by the newish 414. What I mean is the progressive policy of breaking links in Central London, withdrawing sections of route and progressively thinning down peak frequencies. Much of this was done under the disguise of "coping with road works" "Crossrail works" etc but they were cuts. The worrying aspect here is that much of this was described as "temporary" but as finances tightened it became inevitable that they became permanent. These sorts of things irk me greatly because it's borderline deceitful to the public as to what is actually being done to the bus network. Yes there were some very modest enhancements during Boris's 8 years but the general direction was downwards in terms of service volume (other than coping with the impact of roadworks / congestion which caused PVR increases but no demonstrable service improvement). I know for a fact that a package of service improvements worth £250m was scrapped due to funding constraints. We then got the famous "500 extra buses" commitment in late 2015 which was subsequently scrapped once Sadiq became Mayor. One or two areas like Barking and Hounslow gained some enhancements and new links and they are lucky that they've kept them although the 483 has had a frequency cut. Boris was extremely lucky for 7 of his 8 years in that he kept putting fares up but the ridership trend remained upward almost all the way along barring a blip in 2012 because of the Olympics. That kept the funding of the bus network at fairly low levels - it's now twice as high and we are seeing service cuts. That, to some extent, shows the scale of the financial reverse.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 2, 2018 10:11:10 GMT
Hearing suggestions of cuts of a huge scale being penned in from September, unprecedented in scale which will attract media attention.
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Post by wirewiper on Mar 2, 2018 11:43:33 GMT
Hearing suggestions of cuts of a huge scale being penned in from September, unprecedented in scale which will attract media attention. Is it going to be like 1982 all over again? Although with those cuts a fares rise was a major contributor - this time it's a fares cut! Mind you, i have noticed that all the moans about buses running around carrying fresh air have stopped of late
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Post by vjaska on Mar 2, 2018 12:18:55 GMT
Hearing suggestions of cuts of a huge scale being penned in from September, unprecedented in scale which will attract media attention. Is it going to be like 1982 all over again? Although with those cuts a fares rise was a major contributor - this time it's a fares cut! Mind you, i have noticed that all the moans about buses running around carrying fresh air have stopped of late Don't speak too soon lol.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 2, 2018 12:19:01 GMT
Hearing suggestions of cuts of a huge scale being penned in from September, unprecedented in scale which will attract media attention. Is it going to be like 1982 all over again? Although with those cuts a fares rise was a major contributor - this time it's a fares cut! Mind you, i have noticed that all the moans about buses running around carrying fresh air have stopped of late On a similar scale figure wise yes.
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Post by sid on Mar 2, 2018 12:31:56 GMT
Hearing suggestions of cuts of a huge scale being penned in from September, unprecedented in scale which will attract media attention. Is it going to be like 1982 all over again? Although with those cuts a fares rise was a major contributor - this time it's a fares cut! Mind you, i have noticed that all the moans about buses running around carrying fresh air have stopped of late It would appear so. Are people not supposed to mention what routes they've seen under utilised?
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Post by SILENCED on Mar 2, 2018 12:43:42 GMT
Is it going to be like 1982 all over again? Although with those cuts a fares rise was a major contributor - this time it's a fares cut! Mind you, i have noticed that all the moans about buses running around carrying fresh air have stopped of late On a similar scale figure wise yes. So hopefully after the seemingly free travel for large proportion of Londoners, fares freeze and hopper tickets ... hopefully we will be left with a bus network worth using these things on. All these things seems so good on paper ....
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Post by sid on Mar 2, 2018 13:00:14 GMT
On a similar scale figure wise yes. So hopefully after the seemingly free travel for large proportion of Londoners, fares freeze and hopper tickets ... hopefully we will be left with a bus network worth using these things on. All these things seems so good on paper .... Indeed and the removal of cash fares, another 'good idea', has lead to more people not paying at all. A phrase about chickens coming home to roost springs to mind.
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Post by galwhv69 on Mar 2, 2018 13:44:23 GMT
Is it going to be like 1982 all over again? Although with those cuts a fares rise was a major contributor - this time it's a fares cut! Mind you, i have noticed that all the moans about buses running around carrying fresh air have stopped of late Don't speak too soon lol. I was literally about to post that my 315 today was empty looool
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Post by rj131 on Mar 2, 2018 13:48:37 GMT
Is it going to be like 1982 all over again? Although with those cuts a fares rise was a major contributor - this time it's a fares cut! Mind you, i have noticed that all the moans about buses running around carrying fresh air have stopped of late Don't speak too soon lol. I do like to think this will be the year bus patronage will start to be on the mend again, especially with the unlimited hopper. I also noticed last year when roaming around central London on sundays, buses on the whole seemed far fuller than 2016. I did predict that the 2016/17 period bus patronage would start to increase, however I did read in one of TfLs reports that the fall in bus patronage in 2017 was far far smaller than previous years (0.1%) and started to stabilise (so I was half right about 2017’s Bus patronage increasing ), so this year I definitely think bus ridership will start to go up again. Whether TfL will actually make any more money from it is another matter, because of the unlimited hopper, passengers getting more journeys for the price of one. I do think to an extent it’s very commendable what TfL are doing, in essence reducing bus fares (or more journeys for the price of one) in a time with declining usage where money is already hard to come by. Most companies would have done the opposite, increased the fares to offset the hole, and TfL haven’t done that.
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Post by ben on Mar 3, 2018 2:45:35 GMT
Is it going to be like 1982 all over again? Although with those cuts a fares rise was a major contributor - this time it's a fares cut! Mind you, i have noticed that all the moans about buses running around carrying fresh air have stopped of late On a similar scale figure wise yes. Forgive me for seeming uninformed, but as aware as I am about the '82 hackathon, I couldn't put figures or proportions to the total amount cut. Would you mind elucidating on some numbers for the modern context please? Are we talking about many roads left totally unserved? snoggle maybe?
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