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Post by snoggle on Aug 31, 2015 13:31:47 GMT
No I'm not being deliberately controversial   but merely referring to some papers from the London Assembly budget committee who are discussing the bus this coming week. Meeting detailsNB4L reportVarious papers and appendices including business case for NB4LShould be an interesting meeting given TfL people are attending to discuss the way forward for the NB4L. The paperwork the Committee has requested makes fascinating reading as it looks like it has all published (see third link above and TfL appendices pdf).  EDIT For those people who don't believe TfL place a value on reduced dwell time at stops I strongly suggest they read the business case documents which shows this was supposed to a major element of the business case. I'm not convinced the NB4L delivers faster dwell times as people don't routinely use all doors. Also fascinating to see, even before the first bus arrived, that the TfL plan was only ever to have 220 crewed buses. Rather suggests some rather "false" things were said at the time of the launch.  |
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Post by YY13VKP on Aug 31, 2015 17:31:36 GMT
No I'm not being deliberately controversial but merely referring to some papers from the London Assembly budget committee who are discussing the bus this coming week. Meeting detailsNB4L reportVarious papers and appendices including business case for NB4LShould be an interesting meeting given TfL people are attending to discuss the way forward for the NB4L. The paperwork the Committee has requested makes fascinating reading as it looks like it has all published (see third link above and TfL appendices pdf). EDIT For those people who don't believe TfL place a value on reduced dwell time at stops I strongly suggest they read the business case documents which shows this was supposed to a major element of the business case. I'm not convinced the NB4L delivers faster dwell times as people don't routinely use all doors. Also fascinating to see, even before the first bus arrived, that the TfL plan was only ever to have 220 crewed buses. Rather suggests some rather "false" things were said at the time of the launch. 1000 New Routemasters?! No thanks!  800 is enough! |
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Post by ServerKing on Aug 31, 2015 19:37:15 GMT
How many more have they got to flog of the 800 they currently have?  they are up to 500's, surely it makes sense to think of buying more if we were at LT780 or something |
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Post by Deleted on Aug 31, 2015 20:01:00 GMT
I am guessing if we end up pass 800 these will start to creep on to suburban routes! God help us! Just thinking of routes like 5, 86 and 115 all on 2 year extensions using Tridents!  |
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Post by snoggle on Aug 31, 2015 20:36:30 GMT
I am guessing if we end up pass 800 these will start to creep on to suburban routes! God help us! Just thinking of routes like 5, 86 and 115 all on 2 year extensions using Tridents! There is no budget allocated beyond 800 buses. I would be genuinely shocked if the Mayor was to authorise another order, likely to be another 200, before he leaves. We need to remember that (a) we do not have a permanent TfL Commissioner (b) the Mayor leaves in May (c) we are awaiting the outcome of the Spending Round which will affect TfL's budget, possibly severely. It would be potentially reckless to authorise expenditure without full clarity as to where the money is coming from. I also expect such a decision to be politically controversial for the Mayor, even with candidates in the Tory Party seeking to succeed him never mind his political opponents. There is then the very likely public and media fall out - the spread of negative comment is getting ever wider and across the media. Note that Wrightbus only have exclusive rights to build the NB4L up to 1000 vehicles. Beyond that TfL can license the design to other manufacturers and also allow them to innovate over the design's development and include their own innovations (I've found this out through reading the released documents). We have no idea what the view of any of the Mayoral candidates are towards buses in general. We have hints about fares. The main result of those hints would be reduce TfL's revenue base thus requiring cuts to future projects and operational cost savings. You don't have to be a genius to see that future NB4Ls and the crewing of existing ones could easily be "in the firing line" if more savings are needed. There's nothing surprising about that - I've mentioned it umpteen times before. Looking at LT's list they've allocated NB4Ls up to and including LT663. That leaves 145 buses to allocate to routes. Depending on the routes to be chosen that's about 7 routes (assuming an average PVR of 21 buses per route). We are running out of options to convert big routes as there aren't that many left in the tender cycle to allow a tender award based conversion prior to April 2016 when all 800 are supposed to be in service. This means a fevered round of negotiated conversions on existing routes. I suspect that TfL will want to intensify coverage on corridors that have already have some NB4Ls on them. That means Old Kent Rd / Walworth Road in South London, Bayswater Road heading west, Kingsland Road after the 149 converts (243?), possibly the 29 to convert through Camden Road / Finsbury Park. The 25 has to be a real option as it's up for retender but doesn't convert until June 2016 (can't see Tower Transit wanting to run NB4Ls for 2 months if they don't retain the contract). I guess the question is if the Mayor will accept not all 800 being in service come April 2016. Also rather crucial for whether TfL's Directors earn their performance bonus as NB4L completion is a key deliverable. |
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Post by ServerKing on Aug 31, 2015 20:57:35 GMT
Even though BoJo will be gone sooner or later, Leon Daniels may go ahead and order more if necessary. But if they end up on loads of suburban routes, it may be difficult to police in terms of revenue (loads of 'free buses' in less desirable areas) - though if they can do a reliable 'conventional diesel' model with working aircon, it would be good. I like the design of the bus, it's just things mentioned countless times on this forum that is an issue. Though as we roll into Autumn, we'll appreciate how warm the top deck is  If they convert the 243, they might as well do the 235 and 317 while they're at it |
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Post by snoggle on Aug 31, 2015 21:43:10 GMT
Even though BoJo will be gone sooner or later, Leon Daniels may go ahead and order more if necessary. But if they end up on loads of suburban routes, it may be difficult to police in terms of revenue (loads of 'free buses' in less desirable areas) - though if they can do a reliable 'conventional diesel' model with working aircon, it would be good. I like the design of the bus, it's just things mentioned countless times on this forum that is an issue. Though as we roll into Autumn, we'll appreciate how warm the top deck is If they convert the 243, they might as well do the 235 and 317 while they're at it Sorry while Mr Daniels may well be Surface Transport MD he cannot independently go and order a load of NB4Ls. He hasn't got the budget, he hasn't got financial authority nor does he have procurement authority. The cost of any future NB4Ls will have to be wrapped into the existing authority which is so large that it is a matter reserved to the TfL Board. As the Mayor is Chair of TfL you would have to be insane to put a paper forward to the Board without having first made sure the Mayor is on side. Mr Daniels would also need to have got his proposal past Mike Brown, the current stand in TfL Commissioner. I suspect he may not be as accommodating as Mr Hendy might have been. I simply don't see it happening unless the Mayor goes completely raving bonkers before he leaves office. He seems to have lost interest in the Mayoralty anyway and is rather more pre-occupied about how he "kills off" George Osborne in order to become Tory leader and PM and restores his reputation with fellow MPs. Don't underestimate the time, effort and reputation you have to put in to getting stuff past the Board. I suspect that the current top rank of TfL people will be wanting to keep their noses clean and be well behaved in order to survive what regime change is on the way come 2016. TfL are also recruiting for a new Commissioner and it'll be interesting to see who gets the job and how long they last - in theory the new Mayor could sack them come May 2016. Mr Daniels has a great deal on his plate with the delivery of cycle superhighways, trying to keep the roads working, deliver redesigned major junctions plus keep the buses running reasonably well. It is worth noting that bus performance measures have largely gone backwards recently with the bus network being badly hit by declining revenue, increased costs, worse performance on mileage and EWT and no great progress on network improvements or the initial tranche of bus priority works. TfL have even worsened most of their targets in Surface Transport for 2015/16 in order to stand a chance of meeting them.   |
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Post by vjaska on Aug 31, 2015 22:02:51 GMT
I am guessing if we end up pass 800 these will start to creep on to suburban routes! God help us! Just thinking of routes like 5, 86 and 115 all on 2 year extensions using Tridents! There is no budget allocated beyond 800 buses. I would be genuinely shocked if the Mayor was to authorise another order, likely to be another 200, before he leaves. We need to remember that (a) we do not have a permanent TfL Commissioner (b) the Mayor leaves in May (c) we are awaiting the outcome of the Spending Round which will affect TfL's budget, possibly severely. It would be potentially reckless to authorise expenditure without full clarity as to where the money is coming from. I also expect such a decision to be politically controversial for the Mayor, even with candidates in the Tory Party seeking to succeed him never mind his political opponents. There is then the very likely public and media fall out - the spread of negative comment is getting ever wider and across the media. Note that Wrightbus only have exclusive rights to build the NB4L up to 1000 vehicles. Beyond that TfL can license the design to other manufacturers and also allow them to innovate over the design's development and include their own innovations (I've found this out through reading the released documents). We have no idea what the view of any of the Mayoral candidates are towards buses in general. We have hints about fares. The main result of those hints would be reduce TfL's revenue base thus requiring cuts to future projects and operational cost savings. You don't have to be a genius to see that future NB4Ls and the crewing of existing ones could easily be "in the firing line" if more savings are needed. There's nothing surprising about that - I've mentioned it umpteen times before. Looking at LT's list they've allocated NB4Ls up to and including LT663. That leaves 145 buses to allocate to routes. Depending on the routes to be chosen that's about 7 routes (assuming an average PVR of 21 buses per route). We are running out of options to convert big routes as there aren't that many left in the tender cycle to allow a tender award based conversion prior to April 2016 when all 800 are supposed to be in service. This means a fevered round of negotiated conversions on existing routes. I suspect that TfL will want to intensify coverage on corridors that have already have some NB4Ls on them. That means Old Kent Rd / Walworth Road in South London, Bayswater Road heading west, Kingsland Road after the 149 converts (243?), possibly the 29 to convert through Camden Road / Finsbury Park. The 25 has to be a real option as it's up for retender but doesn't convert until June 2016 (can't see Tower Transit wanting to run NB4Ls for 2 months if they don't retain the contract). I guess the question is if the Mayor will accept not all 800 being in service come April 2016. Also rather crucial for whether TfL's Directors earn their performance bonus as NB4L completion is a key deliverable. Well, we've had some hints from some of the prospective Labour mayoral candidates that the NBfL could be withdrawn from London if they got into power. Whether it would actually happen, I don't know. |
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Post by Deleted on Aug 31, 2015 23:02:00 GMT
EDIT For those people who don't believe TfL place a value on reduced dwell time at stops I strongly suggest they read the business case documents which shows this was supposed to a major element of the business case. I'm not convinced the NB4L delivers faster dwell times as people don't routinely use all doors. Also fascinating to see, even before the first bus arrived, that the TfL plan was only ever to have 220 crewed buses. Rather suggests some rather "false" things were said at the time of the launch. I have to say it would appear those who compiled the docs are oblivious to how the LT's are actually performing on the road. Dwell times are one thing, what about the matter of the time in between stops? There are a load of them running on diesel mode, these can sometimes be unbearably sluggish pulling off and lets not forget all the stalling and cut outs they suffer from. I'm indifferent to 200 new LT's but perhaps they should sort the current ones out before ordering new ones. |
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Post by ServerKing on Sept 1, 2015 6:21:35 GMT
snoggle what's EWT? I didn't know the bus network had gotten worse - I know these cycle lanes will only add to the congestion and make things worse in London - thankfully most of my work is on the outskirts (until they mess that up as well!) Let's not forget the NBFL is the political will of Boris Johnson - the next Mayor may have them culled like badgers so who knows if trying to order 200 more when there's still 300 or so of the current order yet to be deployed to any routes seems foolish. They do look smart so I could see other cities buying them. We should keep them on the original Routemaster routes if need be if they are reduced in the future. It would be a terrible waste of money. I hope the next Mayor puts an end to this cycle lane nonsense. If we can't encourage these lot not to ride thru red lights, how can we trust them to stay in their cycle lane?
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Post by TA1 on Sept 1, 2015 6:33:20 GMT
snoggle what's EWT? I didn't know the bus network had gotten worse - I know these cycle lanes will only add to the congestion and make things worse in London - thankfully most of my work is on the outskirts (until they mess that up as well!) Let's not forget the NBFL is the political will of Boris Johnson - the next Mayor may have them culled like badgers so who knows if trying to order 200 more when there's still 300 or so of the current order yet to be deployed to any routes seems foolish. They do look smart so I could see other cities buying them. We should keep them on the original Routemaster routes if need be if they are reduced in the future. It would be a terrible waste of money. I hope the next Mayor puts an end to this cycle lane nonsense. If we can't encourage these lot not to ride thru red lights, how can we trust them to stay in their cycle lane? I'd imagine the acronym 'EWT' stands for Excessive Waiting times, which has increased on many routes throughout the network due to the factors you've listed. |
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Post by snoggle on Sept 1, 2015 7:10:37 GMT
snoggle what's EWT? I didn't know the bus network had gotten worse - I know these cycle lanes will only add to the congestion and make things worse in London - thankfully most of my work is on the outskirts (until they mess that up as well!) Let's not forget the NBFL is the political will of Boris Johnson - the next Mayor may have them culled like badgers so who knows if trying to order 200 more when there's still 300 or so of the current order yet to be deployed to any routes seems foolish. They do look smart so I could see other cities buying them. We should keep them on the original Routemaster routes if need be if they are reduced in the future. It would be a terrible waste of money. I hope the next Mayor puts an end to this cycle lane nonsense. If we can't encourage these lot not to ride thru red lights, how can we trust them to stay in their cycle lane? I'd imagine the acronym 'EWT' stands for Excessive Waiting times, which has increased on many routes throughout the network due to the factors you've listed. Correct - average excess wait time. This is the measure, at route or network level, of the extent to which actual average waiting times exceed the expected average wait times. All routes have a calculated average scheduled waiting time (SWT) based on the timetable. I-Bus data is used to calculate what actually happens (AWT - actual wait time) and TfL then work out the EWT and also a ratio of AWT/SWT. TfL Bus Stats definitionThere are differences as to how TfL measure performance on high and low frequency routes and they're explained on the link above. |
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Post by marlon101 on Sept 18, 2015 18:58:33 GMT
At least any new NBfL's will actually have working aircon?
Snoggle - have you got conclusive proof that the design is owned by TfL? MayorWatch is reporting that that this has come out as a falsehood, and existing custoer agents are to be defunded.
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Post by ServerKing on Sept 18, 2015 20:08:26 GMT
No more NBFL's - looks like the E400 City's come at just the right time - with the Mayor due to go by next May, there shouldn't be any more NBFL's foisted on us as the political will for a white elephant surely won't be sustained by BoJo's successor. E400 City at least has aircon and working windows and doesn't look bad even with the glass at the side (wondering how long that will last in some of the rougher areas of the 78 route - expect to see lots of window etching from da kids At least in more genteel parts of London, a viable alternative from the NBFL. Even with the dodgy lack of aircon issue I like the NBFL's design, it's just that it's tech sucks. Diesel generators and traction motors belong on trains  Wrightbus have yet to convince other operators outside London to try the thing with a view to orders - aside from Reading but I think they'll go for the City. I'm guessing the 'existing customer agents' are the operators who are supplied the vehicles from TfL? Or is it TfL themselves who will be 'defunded'? |
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Post by M1104 on Sept 18, 2015 20:34:02 GMT
Is the LT operating in Reading crew operated in any way?
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but merely referring to some papers from the London Assembly budget committee who are discussing the bus this coming week.
800 is enough!
they are up to 500's, surely it makes sense to think of buying more if we were at LT780 or something 
