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Post by snoggle on Jul 8, 2016 23:44:46 GMT
Mike Weston usually attends a conference every year where developments in vehicle techology are a key topic. His presentations usually end up on the web somehow and there have been fuel / emission comparison numbers in those slides. I searched a few weeks ago and couldn't see a recent presentation. May need to check again in a few weeks. However it may be too early for TfL to say anything meaningful about hybrid MMCs, the BYD electric deckers and the MMC virtual electric buses. There may be some reasonable data about the single deck electric buses - BYD, Irizar, Optare - to allow reasonable comment. I doubt the NB4L will be receiving the glorious headlines of the past as no one at City Hall supports it any more. I also heard this week a couple of interesting remarks about what key TfL people really thought about the NB4L idea - let's say they weren't "glowing". Bit of a shambles. Can anyone realistically see any existing LT route get awarded a second time round with existing LT operation ? Am I right in saying thus far only the 10,11,38 & 148 have been given a 5-7 year extension using existing buses ? No extensions - new contract terms for several routes (10 is o/s). TfL have no option but to run these buses for up to 14 years on Central London routes. Only a huge influx of funding (where from?) and a huge policy change could begin to allow wholesale replacement. The soonest any extra revenue could come on stream is 2018 (wider ULEZ area and revised charging regime). Expect considerable argument between now and the Mayor being able to announce any sort of firm policy and then getting something introduced. There are likely to be all sorts of exemptions required / demanded over a wide area. The Mayor's policy is also dependent on government action on a diesel scrappage scheme. Can anyone see the "mad, bad and dangerous to know" candidates for Tory leader being willing to introduce such a scheme? I can't. They're going to be bogged down for eons working out how to negotiate Brexit. The Mayor is therefore going to really struggle to try to build alternative sources of revenue. If the economy declines then core commuter revenue and discretionary leisure travel spend will fall too. A decline in housing investment and development will also reduce funding via the Community Infrastructure levy / S106s. There are now multiple risks with the potential to reduce TfL's total revenue (and therefore spending). Coming back to TfL Tom Edwards (BBC) reported today that Directors and senior managers (General Manager / Heads of dept) have been sent letters asking if any of them want to take redundancy. Expect that to filter down through all the layers and all parts of TfL in the next two years. They have to get rid of a lot of people to make suitable inroads to fund the fares freeze and cope with the loss of revenue grant. Also expect some activities to quietly disappear from TfL's remit (happens all the time given changing priorities). I think keeping NB4Ls in service will be a very peripheral issue for the Mayor very soon. Much bigger problems to deal with and not just in transport. He's got problems coming in on all sides.
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Post by M1104 on Jul 9, 2016 5:02:15 GMT
Bit of a shambles. Can anyone realistically see any existing LT route get awarded a second time round with existing LT operation ? Am I right in saying thus far only the 10,11,38 & 148 have been given a 5-7 year extension using existing buses ? 59 and 137 have been awarded new contracts with them, bearing in mind the former only converted a few months ago.
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Post by ServerKing on Jul 9, 2016 6:55:46 GMT
Anyone seen the report that the fuel for the Borismaster was £2m more than estimated. And who will end up paying for it? Just us, but don't worry - the Congestion Charge is going up to £20 soon to claw some money back
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Post by snowman on Aug 8, 2016 20:01:44 GMT
This article (which is about 500 bus order for Hong Kong) includes a quote from Mr Wright about a meeting with mayor Khan at end of August regarding the mayor considering a 1000 bus London order www.machinery-market.co.uk/news/14700Anyone know more about this ? SRMs, Gemini3 hybrids, a mix of types, any thoughts.
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Post by M1104 on Aug 8, 2016 20:29:18 GMT
This article (which is about 500 bus order for Hong Kong) includes a quote from Mr Wright about a meeting with mayor Khan at end of August regarding the mayor considering a 1000 bus London order www.machinery-market.co.uk/news/14700Anyone know more about this ? SRMs, Gemini3 hybrids, a mix of types, any thoughts. It mentions 'up to 1000 buses', perhaps some of them being single deckers.
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Post by snoggle on Aug 8, 2016 20:37:32 GMT
This article (which is about 500 bus order for Hong Kong) includes a quote from Mr Wright about a meeting with mayor Khan at end of August regarding the mayor considering a 1000 bus London order www.machinery-market.co.uk/news/14700Anyone know more about this ? SRMs, Gemini3 hybrids, a mix of types, any thoughts. Surely the fundamental question, given remarks from Leon Daniels to the London Assembly not long before Boris went, is why Mayor Khan is considering buying buses? Mr Daniels made it clear to the Assembly Cttee that direct purchase was not TfL's preferred way of doing things and had only done it for the NB4L as there was no other way of getting the buses built and into service. Given there is a perfectly decent mechanism for operators and lease cos to provide top notch, up to date vehicles then why bother? I suppose the only factor is whether the Mayor is talking about electric only and hydrogen vehicles but that's not until 2018 at the earliest and we've a long, long way to go in terms of vehicle testing, evaluation and more development from manufacturers before you could take an in principle decision for TfL to buy rather than operators. TfL's intentions are clear and the bus industry is already working worldwide to boost electric propulsion bus designs and to get costs down and preferred technology identified. This is faster than happened with hybrid buses in the UK where TfL was the great "pusher" of that technology which has helped get costs down compared to the early days. We know Wrightbus are working on electric designs, ADL are in bed with BYD and there are other designs from Volvo and others. I don't view hydrogen as being particularly viable any time soon because of the specialist fuel facilities and overly heavy bus designs. Don't know why TfL don't go for modern trolleybuses on some of the intensively used suburban networks. Plenty of scope to have a core wired network and off wire working and "top up" rechargers if required. That would show real long term commitment to zero emission vehicles.
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Post by snowman on Aug 9, 2016 5:38:37 GMT
This article (which is about 500 bus order for Hong Kong) includes a quote from Mr Wright about a meeting with mayor Khan at end of August regarding the mayor considering a 1000 bus London order www.machinery-market.co.uk/news/14700Anyone know more about this ? SRMs, Gemini3 hybrids, a mix of types, any thoughts. Surely the fundamental question, given remarks from Leon Daniels to the London Assembly not long before Boris went, is why Mayor Khan is considering buying buses? Mr Daniels made it clear to the Assembly Cttee that direct purchase was not TfL's preferred way of doing things and had only done it for the NB4L as there was no other way of getting the buses built and into service. Given there is a perfectly decent mechanism for operators and lease cos to provide top notch, up to date vehicles then why bother? I suppose the only factor is whether the Mayor is talking about electric only and hydrogen vehicles but that's not until 2018 at the earliest and we've a long, long way to go in terms of vehicle testing, evaluation and more development from manufacturers before you could take an in principle decision for TfL to buy rather than operators. TfL's intentions are clear and the bus industry is already working worldwide to boost electric propulsion bus designs and to get costs down and preferred technology identified. This is faster than happened with hybrid buses in the UK where TfL was the great "pusher" of that technology which has helped get costs down compared to the early days. We know Wrightbus are working on electric designs, ADL are in bed with BYD and there are other designs from Volvo and others. I don't view hydrogen as being particularly viable any time soon because of the specialist fuel facilities and overly heavy bus designs. Don't know why TfL don't go for modern trolleybuses on some of the intensively used suburban networks. Plenty of scope to have a core wired network and off wire working and "top up" rechargers if required. That would show real long term commitment to zero emission vehicles. Having had a chance to sleep on it, my thoughts are Mr Khan isn't likely to be popping over to Northern Ireland just because he fancies a day out of the office. Boris would occasionally go there when there was a big announcement. Presumably all the negotiating had been done and legal Dept checked drafts by email, so these trips are more of an official signing and announcement. I vaguely recall something pre mayoral election regarding bulk buying to get a discount (think it was an interview on TV) so my guess is a framework agreement along the lines of fixed price for 250 buses per year for 4 years. I don't think TfL will buy them, but will have an off-take agreement with a few leasing companies or Operators. That is instead of each Operator going to Wrightbus and ordering 20 or 30 every time a route is announced and paying say £320k, can use our bulk order at £280k each. (Prices are illustrations, not actual). Obviously the bulk order saving would be reflected in the route contract price so saves money for TfL. We know TfL has announced a plan to replace 800 buses a year (which on a fleet of approx 9070 buses is average of every 11.5 years. I don't think any bulk order would cover non standard types, but the big core type so I'm thinking the Volvo Gemini3 hybrid. (Or maybe the SRM bodied version). We know mayor Khan has said all new double decks to be hybrid by 2018 (or zero emissions) so my money is on a hybrid double deck order. You may be thinking (I am) what about other manufacturers. Maybe a similar deal with ADL is also planned. My guess would be a mix of city deckers and enviro200MMCs. (There are hundreds of euroIII and euroIV single decks that are likely to be replaced before ULEZ. The potential 3000 buses upgraded is not likely to be 10+ year old (by ULEZ date) single decks) so I suspect ADL will get a decent share of replacing these single decks, with City deckers topping up an order. As for the others, Optare, MCV, Mercedes, VDL, Scania etc. they will probably be left to pick up the remainder of the fleet requirements continuing much as now with route by route orders.
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Post by snoggle on Aug 9, 2016 8:20:50 GMT
Having had a chance to sleep on it, my thoughts are Mr Khan isn't likely to be popping over to Northern Ireland just because he fancies a day out of the office. Boris would occasionally go there when there was a big announcement. Presumably all the negotiating had been done and legal Dept checked drafts by email, so these trips are more of an official signing and announcement. I vaguely recall something pre mayoral election regarding bulk buying to get a discount (think it was an interview on TV) so my guess is a framework agreement along the lines of fixed price for 250 buses per year for 4 years. I don't think TfL will buy them, but will have an off-take agreement with a few leasing companies or Operators. That is instead of each Operator going to Wrightbus and ordering 20 or 30 every time a route is announced and paying say £320k, can use our bulk order at £280k each. (Prices are illustrations, not actual). Obviously the bulk order saving would be reflected in the route contract price so saves money for TfL. We know TfL has announced a plan to replace 800 buses a year (which on a fleet of approx 9070 buses is average of every 11.5 years. I don't think any bulk order would cover non standard types, but the big core type so I'm thinking the Volvo Gemini3 hybrid. (Or maybe the SRM bodied version). We know mayor Khan has said all new double decks to be hybrid by 2018 (or zero emissions) so my money is on a hybrid double deck order. You may be thinking (I am) what about other manufacturers. Maybe a similar deal with ADL is also planned. My guess would be a mix of city deckers and enviro200MMCs. (There are hundreds of euroIII and euroIV single decks that are likely to be replaced before ULEZ. The potential 3000 buses upgraded is not likely to be 10+ year old (by ULEZ date) single decks) so I suspect ADL will get a decent share of replacing these single decks, with City deckers topping up an order. As for the others, Optare, MCV, Mercedes, VDL, Scania etc. they will probably be left to pick up the remainder of the fleet requirements continuing much as now with route by route orders. I can see what you are saying but who says TfL or City Hall have better buying power than the big bus groups? Each operator has their own preferences anyway which means these so called "standard" buses will have to be modified. We already have this with the NB4Ls where every batch is different from the previous one. Strikes me as a bizarre policy when all the operators are perfectly capable of managing their fleets and there's been no evidence that the prices they obtain for London vehicles are "out of whack" with prices generally although TfL have their own specs for certain things.
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Post by snowman on Aug 9, 2016 8:56:10 GMT
Having had a chance to sleep on it, my thoughts are Mr Khan isn't likely to be popping over to Northern Ireland just because he fancies a day out of the office. Boris would occasionally go there when there was a big announcement. Presumably all the negotiating had been done and legal Dept checked drafts by email, so these trips are more of an official signing and announcement. I vaguely recall something pre mayoral election regarding bulk buying to get a discount (think it was an interview on TV) so my guess is a framework agreement along the lines of fixed price for 250 buses per year for 4 years. I don't think TfL will buy them, but will have an off-take agreement with a few leasing companies or Operators. That is instead of each Operator going to Wrightbus and ordering 20 or 30 every time a route is announced and paying say £320k, can use our bulk order at £280k each. (Prices are illustrations, not actual). Obviously the bulk order saving would be reflected in the route contract price so saves money for TfL. We know TfL has announced a plan to replace 800 buses a year (which on a fleet of approx 9070 buses is average of every 11.5 years. I don't think any bulk order would cover non standard types, but the big core type so I'm thinking the Volvo Gemini3 hybrid. (Or maybe the SRM bodied version). We know mayor Khan has said all new double decks to be hybrid by 2018 (or zero emissions) so my money is on a hybrid double deck order. You may be thinking (I am) what about other manufacturers. Maybe a similar deal with ADL is also planned. My guess would be a mix of city deckers and enviro200MMCs. (There are hundreds of euroIII and euroIV single decks that are likely to be replaced before ULEZ. The potential 3000 buses upgraded is not likely to be 10+ year old (by ULEZ date) single decks) so I suspect ADL will get a decent share of replacing these single decks, with City deckers topping up an order. As for the others, Optare, MCV, Mercedes, VDL, Scania etc. they will probably be left to pick up the remainder of the fleet requirements continuing much as now with route by route orders. I can see what you are saying but who says TfL or City Hall have better buying power than the big bus groups? Each operator has their own preferences anyway which means these so called "standard" buses will have to be modified. We already have this with the NB4Ls where every batch is different from the previous one. Strikes me as a bizarre policy when all the operators are perfectly capable of managing their fleets and there's been no evidence that the prices they obtain for London vehicles are "out of whack" with prices generally although TfL have their own specs for certain things. Maybe I'm thinking like a devils advocate, but I wonder how much the big bus groups are causing other problems such as local monopolies. A few days ago we were both miffed by how a contract price had become 30% higher in 4 years. Potentially if there are standard buses then new entrants could bid more easily. Alternatively might be able to introduce more NRM clones (SRMs) by back door by offering them cheaper than a Gemini3 My other devil thought is it would allow short contracts (e.g. upto expected bus reorganisation date for crossrail), we have seen one example, 25, but TfL were stuck with offering it as a 3 year continuation. No one will source a new bus fleet for short contract without option of returning it to a common pool.
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Post by snowman on Aug 24, 2016 11:27:12 GMT
Wrightbus newsLooks like something is happening at Wrightbus, suddenly need to cut costs and suspend all recruitment and have issued a letter saying they are facing a number of challenges. Maybe they haven't got a big order they were expecting (speculation as something must have triggered this)
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Post by snoggle on Aug 24, 2016 21:18:20 GMT
Wrightbus newsLooks like something is happening at Wrightbus, suddenly need to cut costs and suspend all recruitment and have issued a letter saying they are facing a number of challenges. Maybe they haven't got a big order they were expecting (speculation as something must have triggered this) Interesting. I suspect the big groups being cautious with the Buses Bill is one factor. London's needs are not yet clear nor is Wright's ability to meet demand for electric buses. ADL have stolen a march there with the virtual electric deckers and the BYD partnership for single deckers. I also wonder if expected orders from the groups gaining contracts in Singapore haven't materialised either. I suspect SBS and SMRT have cancelled any vehicle investment unless they have a new guaranteed contract from the Singapore government for new routes. I'm not up to date with Hong Kong matters but I wonder if there is a pause in vehicle orders there too because there must be pressure to effect a change to cleaner vehicles given the air quality problems they have. Again there are no easy options for Wrightbus here - ADL are the ones with hybrid tri-axle air con deckers on test. Furthermore I don't think Wrightbus are quite as diversified as ADL are nor are they working to open up markets like ADL are with the E500 and variant designs for Europe, Australia and USA.
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Post by ohdear on Aug 24, 2016 21:43:44 GMT
I think the statement from Leon Daniels when he "made it clear to the Assembly Cttee that direct purchase was not TfL's preferred way of doing things and had only done it for the NB4L as there was no other way of getting the buses built and into service". In others words no operator wanted it only the politicians keeping the Unionist sweet to ensure their support in Parliament. Another worry for Wrights is Brexit because they were covered in subsidies from the EC. Remember over £1million to develop the Streelite What other bus manufacturer got those sort of sums - answer none.
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Post by snoggle on Aug 24, 2016 22:59:54 GMT
I think the statement from Leon Daniels when he "made it clear to the Assembly Cttee that direct purchase was not TfL's preferred way of doing things and had only done it for the NB4L as there was no other way of getting the buses built and into service". In others words no operator wanted it only the politicians keeping the Unionist sweet to ensure their support in Parliament. Another worry for Wrights is Brexit because they were covered in subsidies from the EC. Remember over £1million to develop the Streelite What other bus manufacturer got those sort of sums - answer none. I occasionally see these hints that there are all sorts of "dodgy deals" going on to keep Wrights in business. I've even seen rather more pointed remarks bordering of accusations of corruption. There are also telling remarks about Wrights and Brexit under the newspaper article Snowman linked to. Obviously not for further debate here but one wonders where the evidence is (if any). I've no political leanings about Northern Ireland issues (far too complex for me to worry my head over) so I've no axe to grind here.
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Post by M1104 on Sept 10, 2016 12:43:42 GMT
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