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Post by capitalomnibus on Jun 3, 2016 9:54:09 GMT
Having just worked my way through the night bus data there has been a pretty large reversal of fortune on the Night network. There is a handful of routes that have seen increases in 2015/16 but the rest have all seen declines. Obviously the network is Central London focussed so traffic nightmares there don't help. Even the N35 had a big drop (the recent changes won't register) - presumably people tired of being stuck for ages trying to get through Elephant and Castle at night. I also wonder if there is simply less leisure travel on the night buses now. It will be fascinating to see if the decline is accelerated when the Night Tube lines eventually crawl their way into service. No, UBER is killing the nightbus. With cheap fares, your own private space, I am not surprised it is a hit with some people over the nightbus.
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Post by capitalomnibus on Jun 3, 2016 9:54:28 GMT
The N29 is the busiest nightbus route.
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Post by sid on Jun 3, 2016 10:10:30 GMT
Having just worked my way through the night bus data there has been a pretty large reversal of fortune on the Night network. There is a handful of routes that have seen increases in 2015/16 but the rest have all seen declines. Obviously the network is Central London focussed so traffic nightmares there don't help. Even the N35 had a big drop (the recent changes won't register) - presumably people tired of being stuck for ages trying to get through Elephant and Castle at night. I also wonder if there is simply less leisure travel on the night buses now. It will be fascinating to see if the decline is accelerated when the Night Tube lines eventually crawl their way into service. No, UBER is killing the nightbus. With cheap fares, your own private space, I am not surprised it is a hit with some people over the nightbus. Very true and obviously if there is a group it isn't that much more expensive than the bus.
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Post by snowman on Jun 3, 2016 10:35:07 GMT
I have picked the big routes (over 5m passengers) and compared to 5 years ago from the spreadsheet
The biggest percentage losses are 15 . 36.36% 7 . 30.11% 436 . 28.83% 115 . 25.64% 40 . 25.53% 73 . 25.24% 12 . 24.44% 205 . 24.30% 8 . 23.27% 148 . 22.34% 14 . 20.41% 242 . 20.07%
The biggest percentage gains have been
97 . 46.05% 136 . 31.78% 186 . 30.12% 263 . 29.21% 72 . 28.06% 158 . 19.16% 34 . 16.00% 183 . 15.92% 140 . 13.97% 174 . 13.92% 51 . 12.64% 54 . 12.62% 222 . 12.40% 102 . 12.08%
Of course the bus network has hardly changed in those 5 years, most routes are same, there have been some minor tweaks to routing, but no wholescale changes to any of these routes. There have been some smallish changes to frequency (cant think of a route that has had a frequency change of +/- 20% or more).
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Post by snoggle on Jun 3, 2016 16:14:36 GMT
I have picked the big routes (over 5m passengers) and compared to 5 years ago from the spreadsheet The biggest percentage losses are 15 . 36.36% 7 . 30.11% 436 . 28.83% 115 . 25.64% 40 . 25.53% 73 . 25.24% 12 . 24.44% 205 . 24.30% 8 . 23.27% 148 . 22.34% 14 . 20.41% 242 . 20.07% The biggest percentage gains have been 97 . 46.05% 136 . 31.78% 186 . 30.12% 263 . 29.21% 72 . 28.06% 158 . 19.16% 34 . 16.00% 183 . 15.92% 140 . 13.97% 174 . 13.92% 51 . 12.64% 54 . 12.62% 222 . 12.40% 102 . 12.08% Of course the bus network has hardly changed in those 5 years, most routes are same, there have been some minor tweaks to routing, but no wholescale changes to any of these routes. There have been some smallish changes to frequency (cant think of a route that has had a frequency change of +/- 20% or more). Obviously it depends on your definitions but surely the 72 has had a considerable frequency increase with the extra short journeys that were added for the Putney Bridge closure and which until recently were retained. The frequency has nearly doubled if you're on the southern end of the route. The telling thing is that all the gainers are in the suburbs and all the losers serve Zone 1 and go past major TfL funded construction sites (Aldgate / Elephant / TCR / Paddington / Victoria)!
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Post by vjaska on Jun 3, 2016 16:55:52 GMT
I have picked the big routes (over 5m passengers) and compared to 5 years ago from the spreadsheet The biggest percentage losses are 15 . 36.36% 7 . 30.11% 436 . 28.83% 115 . 25.64% 40 . 25.53% 73 . 25.24% 12 . 24.44% 205 . 24.30% 8 . 23.27% 148 . 22.34% 14 . 20.41% 242 . 20.07% The biggest percentage gains have been 97 . 46.05% 136 . 31.78% 186 . 30.12% 263 . 29.21% 72 . 28.06% 158 . 19.16% 34 . 16.00% 183 . 15.92% 140 . 13.97% 174 . 13.92% 51 . 12.64% 54 . 12.62% 222 . 12.40% 102 . 12.08% Of course the bus network has hardly changed in those 5 years, most routes are same, there have been some minor tweaks to routing, but no wholescale changes to any of these routes. There have been some smallish changes to frequency (cant think of a route that has had a frequency change of +/- 20% or more). What about the 359 - it's gone from a Monday to Saturday every hour route only operating during part of the day to a daily every 30 minute route.
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Post by capitalomnibus on Jun 3, 2016 23:50:45 GMT
I have picked the big routes (over 5m passengers) and compared to 5 years ago from the spreadsheet The biggest percentage losses are 15 . 36.36% 7 . 30.11% 436 . 28.83% 115 . 25.64% 40 . 25.53% 73 . 25.24% 12 . 24.44% 205 . 24.30% 8 . 23.27% 148 . 22.34% 14 . 20.41% 242 . 20.07% The biggest percentage gains have been 97 . 46.05% 136 . 31.78% 186 . 30.12% 263 . 29.21% 72 . 28.06% 158 . 19.16% 34 . 16.00% 183 . 15.92% 140 . 13.97% 174 . 13.92% 51 . 12.64% 54 . 12.62% 222 . 12.40% 102 . 12.08% Of course the bus network has hardly changed in those 5 years, most routes are same, there have been some minor tweaks to routing, but no wholescale changes to any of these routes. There have been some smallish changes to frequency (cant think of a route that has had a frequency change of +/- 20% or more). Also the emphasise on cycling has also stolen bus passengers, especially in central London.
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Post by ian on Jun 4, 2016 9:49:35 GMT
You have probably got several things going on with the Night Bus network. For one thing, the nightclub sector is in freefall, as you will have seen from many new reports on this. The number of clubs has halved etc. Some parts of the bar industry are also in serious decline - there is the rise of social media, apps, and fitness interests as the 'new going out', all of which are well documented. On top of that you have Uber, which as others have said is incredibly easy and not that expensive compared to traditional alternatives. I suspect you also have decline in particular geographical areas in terms of night economy - e.g. a shift away from the traditional West End towards some of the inner London subsidiary spots.
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Post by thesquirrels on Jun 4, 2016 12:25:20 GMT
I have picked the big routes (over 5m passengers) and compared to 5 years ago from the spreadsheet The biggest percentage losses are 15 . 36.36% 7 . 30.11% 436 . 28.83% 115 . 25.64% 40 . 25.53% 73 . 25.24% 12 . 24.44% 205 . 24.30% 8 . 23.27% 148 . 22.34% 14 . 20.41% 242 . 20.07% The biggest percentage gains have been 97 . 46.05% 136 . 31.78% 186 . 30.12% 263 . 29.21% 72 . 28.06% 158 . 19.16% 34 . 16.00% 183 . 15.92% 140 . 13.97% 174 . 13.92% 51 . 12.64% 54 . 12.62% 222 . 12.40% 102 . 12.08% Of course the bus network has hardly changed in those 5 years, most routes are same, there have been some minor tweaks to routing, but no wholescale changes to any of these routes. There have been some smallish changes to frequency (cant think of a route that has had a frequency change of +/- 20% or more). Half of that 46% increase in patronage on the 97 was accounted for in the single year from 10/11 to 11/12 - i.e. when it was extended to Westfield. The rest of the increase is broadly in line with the 158's rise over the period. It is interesting to note that patronage on the 69 has *fallen* by 10.8%. And while the growth of Stratford as a destination - for all things - seems inexorable, the southernmost 75% of LBWF is undergoing some pretty major demographic shifts which have to be considered as well (see also route 34). Diverting the 186 via Grahame Park and the new build developments nearby will have contributed to that route's increase and the extension of all journeys through to BC is a fairly recent thing which would have helped drum up patronage, but I can see a couple of other routes into Harrow are on the 'top ten' list too. Harrow isn't an area of London I'm too hot on but I would suggest demographic shifts again. Same goes with the 174, especially in Dagenham where the older, often car-driving crowd have been moving out and a younger population moving in, many displaced from inner London and who aren't rooted/well off enough to drive, or need to travel towards London or the Docklands for work - or Romford. I think the various joined up parts of the Overground now in place will have impacted on ridership on the 242, 38 and 73. Cycling from the LB Hackney area into town will have hit all three of those too. I'd like to be able to pick out a single route where the patronage shift can be explained directly by a modal shift to cycling but I don't think there is one - perhaps the 436 at a push, Camberwell New Road is a very busy cycling corridor for large parts of the day and Peckham's "up and coming" phase has seen cycling become very popular in that area (see also rte. 12). Beyond all of this, I think the rise in shift working patterns and a move away from the traditional 9-5 as set working hours (I managed to get some documents into the planning dept. at Kensington Town Hall at five past six last night, shock horror) means that while ridership on some routes is increasing, it isn't as spiking as heavily in what was classically the 'high peak'. This will vary by area - the W3 and W7 haven't seen astronomical ridership increases in the last few years but most of the commuter base from the Hornsey and Crouch End areas into the railhead Finsbury Park is of a professional grade who get the 'privilege' of normal working hours, and what increase has been registered on those routes has impacted directly and severely on the ability of those routes to cope at high peak as literally everyone wants to get into Finsbury Park Station between 8 and 9am. See also Lordship Lane down to Denmark Hill, the 134 and 43 from Colney Hatch Lane through Muswell Hill to Highgate Station. I think routes feeding into Walthamstow Central, Blackhorse Road and Leyton are beginning to show this modal behaviour as well as the gentrification of Waltham Forest progresses. I'd suggest other areas of London see more of a spread through the day and less of a 'spike' in commuting hours, and the routes haven't needed a frequency bump as much to compensate.
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Post by mondraker275 on Jun 5, 2016 10:01:13 GMT
I'd like to be able to pick out a single route where the patronage shift can be explained directly by a modal shift to cycling but I don't think there is one - perhaps the 436 at a push, Camberwell New Road is a very busy cycling corridor for large parts of the day and Peckham's "up and coming" phase has seen cycling become very popular in that area (see also rte. 12). Well, maybe not a single route, but an increase in cycling in the Commercial ROad/A13 corridor from Canning Town/All Saints to Aldgate, has part contributed to the 15 and 115 decline. Part of that section is also CS3 and that opened in 2010/11 I believe . The roads themselves are very wide and cycling is not a bad experience on that section. (although the 15 clearly has been more impacted by shortening of the route.)
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Post by capitalomnibus on Jun 6, 2016 21:03:57 GMT
I have picked the big routes (over 5m passengers) and compared to 5 years ago from the spreadsheet The biggest percentage losses are 15 . 36.36% 7 . 30.11% 436 . 28.83% 115 . 25.64% 40 . 25.53% 73 . 25.24% 12 . 24.44% 205 . 24.30% 8 . 23.27% 148 . 22.34% 14 . 20.41% 242 . 20.07% The biggest percentage gains have been 97 . 46.05% 136 . 31.78% 186 . 30.12% 263 . 29.21% 72 . 28.06% 158 . 19.16% 34 . 16.00% 183 . 15.92% 140 . 13.97% 174 . 13.92% 51 . 12.64% 54 . 12.62% 222 . 12.40% 102 . 12.08% Of course the bus network has hardly changed in those 5 years, most routes are same, there have been some minor tweaks to routing, but no wholescale changes to any of these routes. There have been some smallish changes to frequency (cant think of a route that has had a frequency change of +/- 20% or more). Half of that 46% increase in patronage on the 97 was accounted for in the single year from 10/11 to 11/12 - i.e. when it was extended to Westfield. The rest of the increase is broadly in line with the 158's rise over the period. It is interesting to note that patronage on the 69 has *fallen* by 10.8%. And while the growth of Stratford as a destination - for all things - seems inexorable, the southernmost 75% of LBWF is undergoing some pretty major demographic shifts which have to be considered as well (see also route 34). Diverting the 186 via Grahame Park and the new build developments nearby will have contributed to that route's increase and the extension of all journeys through to BC is a fairly recent thing which would have helped drum up patronage, but I can see a couple of other routes into Harrow are on the 'top ten' list too. Harrow isn't an area of London I'm too hot on but I would suggest demographic shifts again. Same goes with the 174, especially in Dagenham where the older, often car-driving crowd have been moving out and a younger population moving in, many displaced from inner London and who aren't rooted/well off enough to drive, or need to travel towards London or the Docklands for work - or Romford. I think the various joined up parts of the Overground now in place will have impacted on ridership on the 242, 38 and 73. Cycling from the LB Hackney area into town will have hit all three of those too. I'd like to be able to pick out a single route where the patronage shift can be explained directly by a modal shift to cycling but I don't think there is one - perhaps the 436 at a push, Camberwell New Road is a very busy cycling corridor for large parts of the day and Peckham's "up and coming" phase has seen cycling become very popular in that area (see also rte. 12). Beyond all of this, I think the rise in shift working patterns and a move away from the traditional 9-5 as set working hours (I managed to get some documents into the planning dept. at Kensington Town Hall at five past six last night, shock horror) means that while ridership on some routes is increasing, it isn't as spiking as heavily in what was classically the 'high peak'. This will vary by area - the W3 and W7 haven't seen astronomical ridership increases in the last few years but most of the commuter base from the Hornsey and Crouch End areas into the railhead Finsbury Park is of a professional grade who get the 'privilege' of normal working hours, and what increase has been registered on those routes has impacted directly and severely on the ability of those routes to cope at high peak as literally everyone wants to get into Finsbury Park Station between 8 and 9am. See also Lordship Lane down to Denmark Hill, the 134 and 43 from Colney Hatch Lane through Muswell Hill to Highgate Station. I think routes feeding into Walthamstow Central, Blackhorse Road and Leyton are beginning to show this modal behaviour as well as the gentrification of Waltham Forest progresses. I'd suggest other areas of London see more of a spread through the day and less of a 'spike' in commuting hours, and the routes haven't needed a frequency bump as much to compensate. With Finsbury Park station I noticed between 7:50-8:30 the worst. Seems that everyone wants to arrive on buses to the station around that time.
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Post by snoggle on Apr 10, 2017 17:18:53 GMT
No it's not the new numbers for 2016/17 just a little table of how the top 10 busiest routes has changed (or not) over the years. I'll add 2016's rankings when the data is published. First column is the ranking by usage, top row is year and entries in the table are route numbers.
| 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 1 | 253 | 253 | 253 | 253 | 207 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 |
| 2 | 73 | 207 | 207 | 207 | 25 | 207 | 29 | 38 | 38 | 38 | 38 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 |
| 3 | 207 | 36 | 36 | 25 | 149 | 29 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 73 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 29 |
| 4 | 36 | 73 | 149 | 73 | 29 | 18 | 149 | 149 | 149 | 149 | 149 | 149 | 149 | 149 | 149 | 149 | 149 |
| 5 | 149 | 149 | 73 | 149 | 18 | 149 | 73 | 73 | 73 | 73 | 73 | 38 | 38 | 38 | 38 | 38 | 207 |
| 6 | 53 | 53 | 53 | 36 | 73 | 73 | 38 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 73 | 207 | 207 | 243 | 83 |
| 7 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 29 | 279 | 243 | 243 | 12 | 243 | 12 | 12 | 86 | 207 | 5 | 73 | 83 | 38 |
| 8 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 53 | 253 | 436 | 207 | 207 | 12 | 207 | 207 | 12 | 86 | 73 | 243 | 207 | 5 |
| 9 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 12 | 38 | 254 | 12 | 243 | 207 | 243 | 86 | 207 | 243 | 86 | 5 | 5 | 86 |
| 10 | 38 | 279 | 18 | 18 | 12 | 94 | 94 | 436 | 436 | 436 | 436 | 436 | 12 | 243 | 86 | 73 | 140 |
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Three notable things 1. The impact of route restructuring/splitting affected the rankings after 2002. 2. The introduction of bendy buses caused those routes to rise in the rankings as patronage rose. 3. In later years you can see the decline of central london radial services and the growth of key services in West and East London (5, 86, 83, 140).
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Post by Alexis on Apr 10, 2017 17:27:17 GMT
No it's not the new numbers for 2016/17 just a little table of how the top 10 busiest routes has changed (or not) over the years. I'll add 2016's rankings when the data is published. First column is the ranking by usage, top row is year and entries in the table are route numbers.
| 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 1 | 253 | 253 | 253 | 253 | 207 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 |
| 2 | 73 | 207 | 207 | 207 | 25 | 207 | 29 | 38 | 38 | 38 | 38 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 |
| 3 | 207 | 36 | 36 | 25 | 149 | 29 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 73 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 29 |
| 4 | 36 | 73 | 149 | 73 | 29 | 18 | 149 | 149 | 149 | 149 | 149 | 149 | 149 | 149 | 149 | 149 | 149 |
| 5 | 149 | 149 | 73 | 149 | 18 | 149 | 73 | 73 | 73 | 73 | 73 | 38 | 38 | 38 | 38 | 38 | 207 |
| 6 | 53 | 53 | 53 | 36 | 73 | 73 | 38 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 73 | 207 | 207 | 243 | 83 |
| 7 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 29 | 279 | 243 | 243 | 12 | 243 | 12 | 12 | 86 | 207 | 5 | 73 | 83 | 38 |
| 8 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 53 | 253 | 436 | 207 | 207 | 12 | 207 | 207 | 12 | 86 | 73 | 243 | 207 | 5 |
| 9 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 12 | 38 | 254 | 12 | 243 | 207 | 243 | 86 | 207 | 243 | 86 | 5 | 5 | 86 |
| 10 | 38 | 279 | 18 | 18 | 12 | 94 | 94 | 436 | 436 | 436 | 436 | 436 | 12 | 243 | 86 | 73 | 140 |
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Three notable things 1. The impact of route restructuring/splitting affected the rankings after 2002. 2. The introduction of bendy buses caused those routes to rise in the rankings as patronage rose. 3. In later years you can see the decline of central london radial services and the growth of key services in West and East London (5, 86, 83, 140). Unless I'm reading it wrong, the 73 comes up twice under 2009 and the 29 twice under 2010. Also, the 18 isn't under 2009, which I believe also may be an error since it comes up in all the other years.
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Post by snoggle on Apr 10, 2017 17:34:45 GMT
Unless I'm reading it wrong, the 73 comes up twice under 2009 and the 29 twice under 2010. Also, the 18 isn't under 2009, which I believe also may be an error since it comes up in all the other years. Well spotted - there were mistakes which I have now corrected. You tend to go cross eyed trying to filling in tables on this Forum - the coding isn't the nicest.
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Post by mondraker275 on Apr 11, 2017 9:08:30 GMT
Three notable things 1. The impact of route restructuring/splitting affected the rankings after 2002. 2. The introduction of bendy buses caused those routes to rise in the rankings as patronage rose. 3. In later years you can see the decline of central london radial services and the growth of key services in West and East London (5, 86, 83, 140). On point 1 )2001/2 was the time I realised buses exist and used them so I dont quite know what happened at the time. I know that the 253 was the combo of the current 253 and 254. Was there any other changes? I see the 18 popped out of nowhere. There was a remarkable rise for the 25 in 02/03 from consistently 9th to 3rd and then 1st. 2) Clearly the stats show a rise of the bendy bus routes in 04/05, including the 38 amongst others, but I dont understand why. There was a theory (or fact) that more people used them for a free ride similar to another type of bus today (begins with L and ends in T). In 04/05 the oyster was in full swing, and so patronage was recorded mainly from oyster data, people probably did not tap in, and so I dont quite understand the rise and the link. I think maybe these stats may have been inflated slightly internally or by Russia. My guess for 16/17, is that the 149 drops out of the top 4. Since 2005 it has been solid top 4th, but good things must come to an end #wengerout sorry #arrivaout.
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