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Post by twobellstogo on Sept 6, 2016 9:58:28 GMT
I am waiting for the cuts to come forth on every TfL route into Surrey. I know someone posted a while back which of the Surrey TfL routes had SCC support and which didn't. I wish I could find it now...
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Post by Deleted on Sept 11, 2016 11:28:26 GMT
I doubt TfL will involve themselves in this, other than look at extending something down Portsmouth Rd, possibly as far as Esher ?
when LU ran the 555 group of routes, they were busy, the buses well presented and frequencies attractive. Abellio down graded the buses, frequencies, with predictable results.
I'd like to see United Transit come to the rescue of the 555 group of routes, but maybe on a slightly more rational basis direct between Walton & Heathrow but with regular frequencies and better vehicles.
The 20 min 290 Sunday service is quite remarkable given in the 80's the Stanies section was hourly, briefly half hourly when the Thorpe Park service was running.
Generally I do concur with others, Surrey is a wealthy area. Bus use is for elderly, pre car use teenagers, and those on welfare support. Even that category would probably rather use mini cabs.
A shame , but a sign of the times.
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Post by thesquirrels on Sept 11, 2016 11:58:06 GMT
I doubt TfL will involve themselves in this, other than look at extending something down Portsmouth Rd, possibly as far as Esher ? when LU ran the 555 group of routes, they were busy, the buses well presented and frequencies attractive. Abellio down graded the buses, frequencies, with predictable results. I'd like to see United Transit come to the rescue of the 555 group of routes, but maybe on a slightly more rational basis direct between Walton & Heathrow but with regular frequencies and better vehicles. The 20 min 290 Sunday service is quite remarkable given in the 80's the Stanies section was hourly, briefly half hourly when the Thorpe Park service was running. Generally I do concur with others, Surrey is a wealthy area. Bus use is for elderly, pre car use teenagers, and those on welfare support. Even that category would probably rather use mini cabs. A shame , but a sign of the times. I had thought of United Transit re the 555 too, but given the commercial risks I can't see them throwing 'better' buses onto the route than Abellio are already using, at least to start with... larger, yes, but not necessarily better. Got a few 15 year old DPSs knocking around.. Hypothetical situation: we'll get to Christmas without a serious prospect of the 555 being replaced, then United Transit steps in from New Year on an hourly emergency timetable with two or three tridents running between Heathrow and Walton. Or, perhaps more likely, as Christmas hits and the route is on the verge of extinction BAA suddenly "finds" some money down the back of the sofa and Abellio limps on into the new year with a further reduced level of service.
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Post by snowman on Sept 11, 2016 15:30:39 GMT
I doubt TfL will involve themselves in this, other than look at extending something down Portsmouth Rd, possibly as far as Esher ? when LU ran the 555 group of routes, they were busy, the buses well presented and frequencies attractive. Abellio down graded the buses, frequencies, with predictable results. I'd like to see United Transit come to the rescue of the 555 group of routes, but maybe on a slightly more rational basis direct between Walton & Heathrow but with regular frequencies and better vehicles. The 20 min 290 Sunday service is quite remarkable given in the 80's the Stanies section was hourly, briefly half hourly when the Thorpe Park service was running. Generally I do concur with others, Surrey is a wealthy area. Bus use is for elderly, pre car use teenagers, and those on welfare support. Even that category would probably rather use mini cabs. A shame , but a sign of the times. I had thought of United Transit re the 555 too, but given the commercial risks I can't see them throwing 'better' buses onto the route than Abellio are already using, at least to start with... larger, yes, but not necessarily better. Got a few 15 year old DPSs knocking around.. Hypothetical situation: we'll get to Christmas without a serious prospect of the 555 being replaced, then United Transit steps in from New Year on an hourly emergency timetable with two or three tridents running between Heathrow and Walton. Or, perhaps more likely, as Christmas hits and the route is on the verge of extinction BAA suddenly "finds" some money down the back of the sofa and Abellio limps on into the new year with a further reduced level of service. My view is Heathrow will offer the money if it gets granted a third runway, to help ease local road congestion. If it doesn't then it won't . Why subsidise the locals that blocked your expansion. There is going to be politics behind this, don't forget Heathrow just lost the court case on being able to charge excess rate on the railway from airport junction to recover the build costs. Won't get burnt twice
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Post by thesquirrels on Sept 11, 2016 16:34:14 GMT
I had thought of United Transit re the 555 too, but given the commercial risks I can't see them throwing 'better' buses onto the route than Abellio are already using, at least to start with... larger, yes, but not necessarily better. Got a few 15 year old DPSs knocking around.. Hypothetical situation: we'll get to Christmas without a serious prospect of the 555 being replaced, then United Transit steps in from New Year on an hourly emergency timetable with two or three tridents running between Heathrow and Walton. Or, perhaps more likely, as Christmas hits and the route is on the verge of extinction BAA suddenly "finds" some money down the back of the sofa and Abellio limps on into the new year with a further reduced level of service. My view is Heathrow will offer the money if it gets granted a third runway, to help ease local road congestion. If it doesn't then it won't . Why subsidise the locals that blocked your expansion. There is going to be politics behind this, don't forget Heathrow just lost the court case on being able to charge excess rate on the railway from airport junction to recover the build costs. Won't get burnt twice It would be rather foolish and spiteful politics if they were to act it out - why take a decision to inconvenience and aggrieve the residents of Ashford, Sunbury, Shepperton and Walton for a decision taken by and affecting the residents of Harmondsworth and Sipson, on the opposite side of the airport, in a different constituency, represented by a different MP in a different administrative county? I do agree that HAL are probably smarting as a result of losing out on track access charges come Crossrail roll out. But the level of subsidy to the 555 is small in comparison, and something which is going to make life difficult for no small number of people much sooner than the arrival of Crossrail. Without those 3am shiftworker buses I reckon a number of jobs are going to be lost by residents along the line of route.
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Post by snoggle on Sept 11, 2016 16:41:22 GMT
I doubt TfL will involve themselves in this, other than look at extending something down Portsmouth Rd, possibly as far as Esher ? when LU ran the 555 group of routes, they were busy, the buses well presented and frequencies attractive. Abellio down graded the buses, frequencies, with predictable results. I'd like to see United Transit come to the rescue of the 555 group of routes, but maybe on a slightly more rational basis direct between Walton & Heathrow but with regular frequencies and better vehicles. The 20 min 290 Sunday service is quite remarkable given in the 80's the Stanies section was hourly, briefly half hourly when the Thorpe Park service was running. Generally I do concur with others, Surrey is a wealthy area. Bus use is for elderly, pre car use teenagers, and those on welfare support. Even that category would probably rather use mini cabs. A shame , but a sign of the times. A question or two if I may - while not disputing the general thrust of what you've said and accepting TfL fares are low why is it that every TfL route of out Staines runs very decent loadings from my limited experience? Ditto the 406/408 and 465 out of Kingston. The K3 often looks chockablock when I see it loading for Eshter. Do all these people get off these routes within Greater London or is there decent carry over into Surrey? From my limited observations TfL's service standards do seem to go down well with people on these cross border routes. Ditto Metrobus although that's more Sussex than Surrey. They seem able to get bums on seats at much higher fares than TfL. Therefore Surrey can't be a complete "no hope" but I'd agree that many years of attrition make any sort of come back extremely difficult / costly / risky for a commercial operator with no "pump priming" subsidy? What have I missed?
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Post by twobellstogo on Sept 11, 2016 17:22:48 GMT
A question or two if I may - while not disputing the general thrust of what you've said and accepting TfL fares are low why is it that every TfL route of out Staines runs very decent loadings from my limited experience? Ditto the 406/408 and 465 out of Kingston. The K3 often looks chockablock when I see it loading for Eshter. Do all these people get off these routes within Greater London or is there decent carry over into Surrey? From my limited observations TfL's service standards do seem to go down well with people on these cross border routes. Ditto Metrobus although that's more Sussex than Surrey. They seem able to get bums on seats at much higher fares than TfL. Therefore Surrey can't be a complete "no hope" but I'd agree that many years of attrition make any sort of come back extremely difficult / costly / risky for a commercial operator with no "pump priming" subsidy? What have I missed? I'll have a go at answering, snoggle. My knowledge of East Surrey is not great, but in the centre and west, things vary. Spelthorne is generally very good - even some of the non-TfL stuff does quite well. Runnymede is car land on the whole, even on routes going into Staines. Elmbridge gets progressively worse the further south you go : the 411/461 both do well, arguably the Kingston ends of the 458 and 514 seem well used, too. K3 very good from Hinchley Wood northwards, less so beyond to Esher. 515 generally runs around with minimal patronage, and the Cobham Chatterbus seems to carry fresh air most of the time. 408 is improving : this is one route that may have some potential. Might end up the only bus in Cobham the way we are going. Epsom seems to do OK, particularly the TfL services and the 408. Mole Valley : 408 again, 465 does well, and Buses Excetera are doing increasingly well with their routes in the area. The real weak point for bus usage is central and south Elmbridge, and much of Runnymede.
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Post by lonmark on Sept 12, 2016 15:37:41 GMT
it is really shame! when Abellio thought they can do to try and win better bus service like metrobus did in Crawley area After Arriva dump many bus service across the Surrey and West Sussex area.
Now i heard people not happy with Southdown PSV that change since last week in West Surrey area.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 12, 2016 22:26:37 GMT
Twobellstogo has answered very well !
I used to live in Dorking ( in a pokey flat)
Here you have the 93 which serves the Goodwyns Estate , social housing area, so buses will get custom. High rise blocks last time I was there, limited car ownership. Other than this area, it is wealthy beyond most people's dreams. Even a modest terraced house here will set you back several hundred thousand pounds. These people have cars, and their offspring will generally only ever use a bus to get to from school, at best.
The 32 group of routes have deteriorated over the years , and I think I'm right in saying Arriva pulled out. I used this route many times, to Redhill and Guildord. Very few passengers , no doubt most would have used the train if they had to use public transport at all.
The Box Hill route seemed well used , mainly by pensioners.
Stanies, yes the TfL routes are well used , but only the 203 faces a standing room only situation. Without looking at official figures, I'd guess and say the 117 is next busiest, followed by the 216 then the 290. But look at the 305,566, even the hourly First route 71 to Heathrow, not so busy. The 441 has a niche area, as Egham and even bits of Englefield Green has social housing. I loved Westlinks former route 417 Hounslow - Windsor. I reckon the most passengers I saw on that route was 15 at most.
Westlink also ran the 592 Stanwell to Kingston. This gradually disappeared, thus Kempton Park no longer has a regular bus service passing it. Armchair briefly ran a 30 min Saturday service over that route !
Kingston Bus ran the K10 for a while, this carried fresh air via a very convoluted route between Kingston and Stanies via Thames Ditton, Esher, Hersham, Walton, Weybridge, Byfkeet, Chertsey and Thorpe Park.
White Rose travel tried bravely to run the 461 amongst other routes, they failed.
LU took over the 451 and 461 with DR's for a short while. Passenger numbers were never that great.
Abellio have been stuck with those diesel guzzling ex School buses that look shabby now and can't be good for attracting custom.
Arriva retreated long ago.
So many firms have tried and failed.
Surrey is a bus firms graveyard in my opinion. I reckon the only future in the wealthier parts is on demand , like Buses 4U .... Running scheduled services in the more rural or extremely well off parts of that county is not an income generator at all.
Last point...traffic congestion. As car use is high, traffic is often a problem. Abellio recently changed many timetables to try and cope , but waiting for a bus which runs every hour , and it doesn't show up on time, and there's no technology available to actually make an educated guess as to whether it will ever arrive, is not ever going to attract anyone other than the most hardened public transport user.
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Post by LX09FBJ on Sept 12, 2016 23:30:41 GMT
Twobellstogo has answered very well ! I used to live in Dorking ( in a pokey flat) Here you have the 93 which serves the Goodwyns Estate , social housing area, so buses will get custom. High rise blocks last time I was there, limited car ownership. Other than this area, it is wealthy beyond most people's dreams. Even a modest terraced house here will set you back several hundred thousand pounds. These people have cars, and their offspring will generally only ever use a bus to get to from school, at best. The 32 group of routes have deteriorated over the years , and I think I'm right in saying Arriva pulled out. I used this route many times, to Redhill and Guildord. Very few passengers , no doubt most would have used the train if they had to use public transport at all. The Box Hill route seemed well used , mainly by pensioners. Stanies, yes the TfL routes are well used , but only the 203 faces a standing room only situation. Without looking at official figures, I'd guess and say the 117 is next busiest, followed by the 216 then the 290. But look at the 305,566, even the hourly First route 71 to Heathrow, not so busy. The 441 has a niche area, as Egham and even bits of Englefield Green has social housing. I loved Westlinks former route 417 Hounslow - Windsor. I reckon the most passengers I saw on that route was 15 at most. Westlink also ran the 592 Stanwell to Kingston. This gradually disappeared, thus Kempton Park no longer has a regular bus service passing it. Armchair briefly ran a 30 min Saturday service over that route ! Kingston Bus ran the K10 for a while, this carried fresh air via a very convoluted route between Kingston and Stanies via Thames Ditton, Esher, Hersham, Walton, Weybridge, Byfkeet, Chertsey and Thorpe Park. White Rose travel tried bravely to run the 461 amongst other routes, they failed. LU took over the 451 and 461 with DR's for a short while. Passenger numbers were never that great. Abellio have been stuck with those diesel guzzling ex School buses that look shabby now and can't be good for attracting custom. Arriva retreated long ago. So many firms have tried and failed. Surrey is a bus firms graveyard in my opinion. I reckon the only future in the wealthier parts is on demand , like Buses 4U .... Running scheduled services in the more rural or extremely well off parts of that county is not an income generator at all. Last point...traffic congestion. As car use is high, traffic is often a problem. Abellio recently changed many timetables to try and cope , but waiting for a bus which runs every hour , and it doesn't show up on time, and there's no technology available to actually make an educated guess as to whether it will ever arrive, is not ever going to attract anyone other than the most hardened public transport user. I think you've covered the key points very well here, there needs to be 'total route modernisation' - rip out the old network and renew everything. In this part of the world, it would be a massive gamble though and could become even more of a loss-making operation if not done correctly. Most people in Surrey are staunchly conservative when it comes to public transport, the thought of sharing what is considered to be a 'poor mans' mode of transport isn't going to cut it and therefore people will travel everywhere by car. The affluence of residents will mean that this decision will hurt them less financially than areas that are less well off. Fares are generally quite expensive. Abellio's day ticket in Surrey is £8 vs £4.50-£5 in London and weekly is £30 vs £21.20 in London where there's a much bigger network and there is no restrictions on which operator you can use. The infrequency of services, the fact they finish relatively early and unreliability isn't going to convince people to swap their BMWs and Mercedes' for an Alexander Dennis. The use of clapped out Darts that have mix-and-match moquette and hard seats would put even the least fussy traveller off. I myself would not pay the fares on offer for a old, rattly and worn out vehicle. Many operators now provide mod-cons on their vehicles such as high backed seating, free wifi (yes I know Abellio provide this on their buses) and USB charging. There's a significant lack of investment, the last new vehicles new to Byfleet were the mini Pointers delivered ten years ago for the 441 and they have since recieved cast offs from London and the Pegasus Darts. Appologies if I've repeated what's been said above. The solution is to use branding to advertise buses as a 'lifestyle choice' as opposed to a method of merely getting from A to B. Services like Transdev's 36 do this well, and if something similar were to implemented in Surrey then this could see an increase in patronage. There should be grater incentive for people to use buses too, something such as discounts at retailers and restaurants, multi journey discounts and promotion of the service as a luxury one. One trick could be to use Citaros and play up the fact it's built by Mercedes-Benz.
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Post by SILENCED on Sept 12, 2016 23:38:29 GMT
Twobellstogo has answered very well ! I used to live in Dorking ( in a pokey flat) Here you have the 93 which serves the Goodwyns Estate , social housing area, so buses will get custom. High rise blocks last time I was there, limited car ownership. Other than this area, it is wealthy beyond most people's dreams. Even a modest terraced house here will set you back several hundred thousand pounds. These people have cars, and their offspring will generally only ever use a bus to get to from school, at best. The 32 group of routes have deteriorated over the years , and I think I'm right in saying Arriva pulled out. I used this route many times, to Redhill and Guildord. Very few passengers , no doubt most would have used the train if they had to use public transport at all. The Box Hill route seemed well used , mainly by pensioners. Stanies, yes the TfL routes are well used , but only the 203 faces a standing room only situation. Without looking at official figures, I'd guess and say the 117 is next busiest, followed by the 216 then the 290. But look at the 305,566, even the hourly First route 71 to Heathrow, not so busy. The 441 has a niche area, as Egham and even bits of Englefield Green has social housing. I loved Westlinks former route 417 Hounslow - Windsor. I reckon the most passengers I saw on that route was 15 at most. Westlink also ran the 592 Stanwell to Kingston. This gradually disappeared, thus Kempton Park no longer has a regular bus service passing it. Armchair briefly ran a 30 min Saturday service over that route ! Kingston Bus ran the K10 for a while, this carried fresh air via a very convoluted route between Kingston and Stanies via Thames Ditton, Esher, Hersham, Walton, Weybridge, Byfkeet, Chertsey and Thorpe Park. White Rose travel tried bravely to run the 461 amongst other routes, they failed. LU took over the 451 and 461 with DR's for a short while. Passenger numbers were never that great. Abellio have been stuck with those diesel guzzling ex School buses that look shabby now and can't be good for attracting custom. Arriva retreated long ago. So many firms have tried and failed. Surrey is a bus firms graveyard in my opinion. I reckon the only future in the wealthier parts is on demand , like Buses 4U .... Running scheduled services in the more rural or extremely well off parts of that county is not an income generator at all. Last point...traffic congestion. As car use is high, traffic is often a problem. Abellio recently changed many timetables to try and cope , but waiting for a bus which runs every hour , and it doesn't show up on time, and there's no technology available to actually make an educated guess as to whether it will ever arrive, is not ever going to attract anyone other than the most hardened public transport user. I think you've covered the key points very well here, there needs to be 'total route modernisation' - rip out the old network and renew everything. In this part of the world, it would be a massive gamble though and could become a loss-making operation if not done correctly. Most people in Surrey are staunchly conservative when it comes to public transport, the thought of sharing what is considered to be a 'poor mans' mode of transport isn't going to cut it and therefore people will travel everywhere by car. The affluence of residents will mean that this decision will hurt them less financially than areas that are less well off. Fares are generally quite expensive. Abellio's day ticket in Surrey is £8 vs £4.50-£5 in London and weekly is £30 vs £21.20 in London where there's a much bigger network and there is no restrictions on which operator you can use. The infrequency of services, the fact they finish relatively early and unreliability isn't going to convince people to swap their BMWs and Mercedes' for an Alexander Dennis. The use of clapped out Darts that have mix-and-match moquette and hard seats would put even the least fussy traveller off. I myself would not pay the fares on offer for a old, rattly and worn out vehicle. Many operators now provide mod-cons on their vehicles such as high backed seating, free wifi (yes I know Abellio provide this on their buses) and USB charging. There's a significant lack of investment, the last new vehicles new to Byfleet were the mini Pointers delivered ten years ago for the 441 and they have since recieved cast offs from London and the Pegsus Darts. Appologies if I've repeated what's been said above. The solution is to use branding to advertise buses as a 'lifestyle choice' as opposed to a method of merely getting from A to B. Services like Transdev's 36 do this well, and if something similar were to implemented in Surrey then this could see an increase in patronage. There should be grater incentive for people to use buses too, something such as discounts at retailers and restaurants, multi journey discounts and promotion of the service as a luxury one. One trick as well is to use Citaros and play up the fact it's built by Mercedes-Benz. So who do you suppose is going to stump up the capital for what you have said is a high odds gamble? Local authority or private company?
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Post by snoggle on Sept 12, 2016 23:51:21 GMT
The solution is to use branding to advertise buses as a 'lifestyle choice' as opposed to a method of merely getting from A to B. Services like Transdev's 36 do this well, and if something similar were to implemented in Surrey then this could see an increase in patronage. There should be grater incentive for people to use buses too, something such as discounts at retailers and restaurants, multi journey discounts and promotion of the service as a luxury one. One trick could be to use Citaros and play up the fact it's built by Mercedes-Benz. The point about the H&D 36 is that it *can* be a lifestyle choice because it runs frequently, every day so you aren't looking for one of the 4 buses a day that goes part way to where you want to go like Surrey's buses. I know the 36 is run with very well appointed vehicles but it has seen a cautious step by step approach over 20? years to build it up to where it is now. The fact the 36 has run Ripon to Leeds for eons also means there is a long standing market and awareness. Harrogate and District have cleverly resisted the temptation to renumber it and confuse everyone. I can't see many parallels in Surrey given the pretty regular changes and trimming back and back that has gone on. I doubt those who might be in your "lifestyle choice" bracket have a clue what buses there are. Only in the event of becoming unable to drive would they face that prospect and I doubt even then that they'd use the bus. You have three choices in Surrey I think a) you carry on as now with support being whittled away and the network progressively shrinking to the point where little runs in most places. The buses become a tier of the "social services" in the county - a "safety net" for the most vulnerable. b) you have a TfL style fully contracted, non commercial network. Won't happen as there's no money. c) you have a super dooper high quality commercial network. That possibility had probably vanished even before deregulation and the ensuing 30 years (yep that long) has done nothing to improve matters. The commercial risk to an operator is just way too great for any of them to bear it as others have said. I have to concede defeat even though it saddens me to say it. I'd like to believe someone like Metrobus could have made a go of it but it's too late. Just glad I don't live in Surrey!
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Post by LX09FBJ on Sept 12, 2016 23:51:44 GMT
I think you've covered the key points very well here, there needs to be 'total route modernisation' - rip out the old network and renew everything. In this part of the world, it would be a massive gamble though and could become a loss-making operation if not done correctly. Most people in Surrey are staunchly conservative when it comes to public transport, the thought of sharing what is considered to be a 'poor mans' mode of transport isn't going to cut it and therefore people will travel everywhere by car. The affluence of residents will mean that this decision will hurt them less financially than areas that are less well off. Fares are generally quite expensive. Abellio's day ticket in Surrey is £8 vs £4.50-£5 in London and weekly is £30 vs £21.20 in London where there's a much bigger network and there is no restrictions on which operator you can use. The infrequency of services, the fact they finish relatively early and unreliability isn't going to convince people to swap their BMWs and Mercedes' for an Alexander Dennis. The use of clapped out Darts that have mix-and-match moquette and hard seats would put even the least fussy traveller off. I myself would not pay the fares on offer for a old, rattly and worn out vehicle. Many operators now provide mod-cons on their vehicles such as high backed seating, free wifi (yes I know Abellio provide this on their buses) and USB charging. There's a significant lack of investment, the last new vehicles new to Byfleet were the mini Pointers delivered ten years ago for the 441 and they have since recieved cast offs from London and the Pegsus Darts. Appologies if I've repeated what's been said above. The solution is to use branding to advertise buses as a 'lifestyle choice' as opposed to a method of merely getting from A to B. Services like Transdev's 36 do this well, and if something similar were to implemented in Surrey then this could see an increase in patronage. There should be grater incentive for people to use buses too, something such as discounts at retailers and restaurants, multi journey discounts and promotion of the service as a luxury one. One trick as well is to use Citaros and play up the fact it's built by Mercedes-Benz. So who do you suppose is going to stump up the capital for what you have said is a high odds gamble? Local authority or private company? The close proximity of Heathrow could prove useful in securing investment for services, by having a bus corridor between Heathrow and Staines then onwards to places such as Weybridge, Cobham or Addlestone would mean more Local businesses could also sponsor services for their workers as well as the local community. I am no expert in financial matters in terms of how much money is needed and where it comes from. Surrey CC (like virtually all local authorities) are strapped for cash and need to make ends meet as efficiently as possible and patronage on bus services in Surrey is very low so if services are cut here then fewer people miss out. Having a 'use it or lose it' element for the least used services could be useful too, where there is a practical test to see how services are patronised and of patronage is lower than it's worth to keep a route running then they could consider axing it, and save money.
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Post by thesquirrels on Sept 13, 2016 1:47:15 GMT
The solution is to use branding to advertise buses as a 'lifestyle choice' as opposed to a method of merely getting from A to B. Services like Transdev's 36 do this well, and if something similar were to implemented in Surrey then this could see an increase in patronage. There should be grater incentive for people to use buses too, something such as discounts at retailers and restaurants, multi journey discounts and promotion of the service as a luxury one. One trick could be to use Citaros and play up the fact it's built by Mercedes-Benz. The point about the H&D 36 is that it *can* be a lifestyle choice because it runs frequently, every day so you aren't looking for one of the 4 buses a day that goes part way to where you want to go like Surrey's buses. I know the 36 is run with very well appointed vehicles but it has seen a cautious step by step approach over 20? years to build it up to where it is now. The fact the 36 has run Ripon to Leeds for eons also means there is a long standing market and awareness. Harrogate and District have cleverly resisted the temptation to renumber it and confuse everyone. I can't see many parallels in Surrey given the pretty regular changes and trimming back and back that has gone on. I doubt those who might be in your "lifestyle choice" bracket have a clue what buses there are. Only in the event of becoming unable to drive would they face that prospect and I doubt even then that they'd use the bus. You have three choices in Surrey I think a) you carry on as now with support being whittled away and the network progressively shrinking to the point where little runs in most places. The buses become a tier of the "social services" in the county - a "safety net" for the most vulnerable. b) you have a TfL style fully contracted, non commercial network. Won't happen as there's no money. c) you have a super dooper high quality commercial network. That possibility had probably vanished even before deregulation and the ensuing 30 years (yep that long) has done nothing to improve matters. The commercial risk to an operator is just way too great for any of them to bear it as others have said. I have to concede defeat even though it saddens me to say it. I'd like to believe someone like Metrobus could have made a go of it but it's too late. Just glad I don't live in Surrey! So, I've had some time to sit and think about this. I don't think extinction (or even near extinction) is necessarily on the cards for bus services in Surrey as a whole, as bad as the situation between the London border and the M25 is now - this is where much of the geographical focus of this thread has been, inevitably, as it is Abellio's turf which is collapsing, but also as it laps at the shores of the area the group has most interest in, i.e. Greater London. But there is a lot more to the county than Spelthorne and Elmbridge and I am a bit concerned that the group is mopping itself into a corner with all of these proclamations of disaster. Surrey is a large county and the cuts currently being proposed, painful to see wither away on a map has they have been, only account for a very small percentage of the mileage operated in the county. Yes, it is highly likely that rural and community services will be rationalised to the point of 'on demand' or thrice-daily offerings, but this doesn't put it in any worse a position than parts of Hertforfdshire and Essex already are in - I'd put out the gradual shrinkage of the 151/251/551/751 corridor routes from Romford out to Basildon as a case in point here, along with some other First routes. It's grim but life has gone on. Metrobus are still trying to improve things within its territory - there have been genuine attempts to improve corridors such as Epsom - Tadworth/Preston Estate - Reigate, growth and investment on the routes linking into Gatwick, a new 24 hour service on the 100, combined efforts with Surrey CC to provide clockface services not in place before (i.e. the 22 between Crawley and Leatherhead). It does of course help that there is a thumping great airport in the middle of their territory which will always need workers to be bussed in. Heathrow, in comparison, is very much in the corner of Abellio's network, and is quite awkward to serve in needing to circumnavigate the citadel before it can enter through the access tunnel. Buses Excetera are making headway on the Epsom-Guildford corridor, albeit slowly. The major interurban corridors elsewhere are either stable (e.g. 3bph out of Woking on the 34/35 to Camberley/Bagshot) or have grown (Stagecoach have upped the 20 (now 'Kite') from 3 buses an hour to 4) and Sunday services on those corridors have stayed more or less intact. Guildford out to Cranleigh is still 3bph, as it ever was, albeit in a slightly revised format. Dorking town to Goodwyns has gone from a half hourly service to a x20 service under Metrobus (albeit at the expense of a bus an hour out to Chart (I think?), now hourly on to Horsham). The general picture I get from Horsham under Metrobus's reign has been one of overall, albeit piecemeal improvement. If they can do it in the depths of West Sussex, I don't see that north-west Surrey is a total write off if a commercial operator with some balls and nous were to step in. My concern is that the operators lapping at the edges of Abellio-land are too busy trying to eke improvements out of their own networks so are unlikely to be willing to take the commercial risk to run into the 'dead zone' Abellio are on the verge of giving up on. All of which leaves me wondering how Abellio managed to find itself here. They had an opportunity to arrest the decline in patronage and missed it. I think the managerial spirit and ideas were there at Abellio/Byfleet to try and make things better - they nipped at the edges with things like wi-fi and smartphone app technology, and a good quality online offering, but as above posters have proven the hard cash from higher-on to invest in the important things like the actual buses, and additional buses to provide a robust service on corridors with potential, were not. If I were to crack out my almanac I think the final outcome will probably not be pretty, but it will not be a wipeout. The 555 will survive, the 515 will probably face another cut - perhaps 5 trips a day each way, and the Sunday service will go, albeit with a summer experiment next year. The 458 will drop back to hourly as in the bad old days of the 481. I don't see why an hourly service can't be made to work sustainably - cf. Metrobus on the 291 between Crawley and Tunbridge Wells which has done so just fine for years. I don't know enough about Chertsey and Addlestone to make a guess about what will happen there, but I expect that is where the axe will come down hardest with a tokenistic or nonexistent replacement for the 556 and 557 in that area. Perhaps the 555 will be worked down to fill the gap. Arriva, with their Mercedes-Benz 436/437 offering, will be looking at these changes with some interest. They might even have an idea or two of their own.
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Post by ibus246 on Sept 13, 2016 3:57:37 GMT
The point about the H&D 36 is that it *can* be a lifestyle choice because it runs frequently, every day so you aren't looking for one of the 4 buses a day that goes part way to where you want to go like Surrey's buses. I know the 36 is run with very well appointed vehicles but it has seen a cautious step by step approach over 20? years to build it up to where it is now. The fact the 36 has run Ripon to Leeds for eons also means there is a long standing market and awareness. Harrogate and District have cleverly resisted the temptation to renumber it and confuse everyone. I can't see many parallels in Surrey given the pretty regular changes and trimming back and back that has gone on. I doubt those who might be in your "lifestyle choice" bracket have a clue what buses there are. Only in the event of becoming unable to drive would they face that prospect and I doubt even then that they'd use the bus. You have three choices in Surrey I think a) you carry on as now with support being whittled away and the network progressively shrinking to the point where little runs in most places. The buses become a tier of the "social services" in the county - a "safety net" for the most vulnerable. b) you have a TfL style fully contracted, non commercial network. Won't happen as there's no money. c) you have a super dooper high quality commercial network. That possibility had probably vanished even before deregulation and the ensuing 30 years (yep that long) has done nothing to improve matters. The commercial risk to an operator is just way too great for any of them to bear it as others have said. I have to concede defeat even though it saddens me to say it. I'd like to believe someone like Metrobus could have made a go of it but it's too late. Just glad I don't live in Surrey! So, I've had some time to sit and think about this. I don't think extinction (or even near extinction) is necessarily on the cards for bus services in Surrey as a whole, as bad as the situation between the London border and the M25 is now - this is where much of the geographical focus of this thread has been, inevitably, as it is Abellio's turf which is collapsing, but also as it laps at the shores of the area the group has most interest in, i.e. Greater London. But there is a lot more to the county than Spelthorne and Elmbridge and I am a bit concerned that the group is mopping itself into a corner with all of these proclamations of disaster. Surrey is a large county and the cuts currently being proposed, painful to see wither away on a map has they have been, only account for a very small percentage of the mileage operated in the county. Yes, it is highly likely that rural and community services will be rationalised to the point of 'on demand' or thrice-daily offerings, but this doesn't put it in any worse a position than parts of Hertforfdshire and Essex already are in - I'd put out the gradual shrinkage of the 151/251/551/751 corridor routes from Romford out to Basildon as a case in point here, along with some other First routes. It's grim but life has gone on. Metrobus are still trying to improve things within its territory - there have been genuine attempts to improve corridors such as Epsom - Tadworth/Preston Estate - Reigate, growth and investment on the routes linking into Gatwick, a new 24 hour service on the 100, combined efforts with Surrey CC to provide clockface services not in place before (i.e. the 22 between Crawley and Leatherhead). It does of course help that there is a thumping great airport in the middle of their territory which will always need workers to be bussed in. Heathrow, in comparison, is very much in the corner of Abellio's network, and is quite awkward to serve in needing to circumnavigate the citadel before it can enter through the access tunnel. Buses Excetera are making headway on the Epsom-Guildford corridor, albeit slowly. The major interurban corridors elsewhere are either stable (e.g. 3bph out of Woking on the 34/35 to Camberley/Bagshot) or have grown (Stagecoach have upped the 20 (now 'Kite') from 3 buses an hour to 4) and Sunday services on those corridors have stayed more or less intact. Guildford out to Cranleigh is still 3bph, as it ever was, albeit in a slightly revised format. Dorking town to Goodwyns has gone from a half hourly service to a x20 service under Metrobus (albeit at the expense of a bus an hour out to Chart (I think?), now hourly on to Horsham). The general picture I get from Horsham under Metrobus's reign has been one of overall, albeit piecemeal improvement. If they can do it in the depths of West Sussex, I don't see that north-west Surrey is a total write off if a commercial operator with some balls and nous were to step in. My concern is that the operators lapping at the edges of Abellio-land are too busy trying to eke improvements out of their own networks so are unlikely to be willing to take the commercial risk to run into the 'dead zone' Abellio are on the verge of giving up on. All of which leaves me wondering how Abellio managed to find itself here. They had an opportunity to arrest the decline in patronage and missed it. I think the managerial spirit and ideas were there at Abellio/Byfleet to try and make things better - they nipped at the edges with things like wi-fi and smartphone app technology, and a good quality online offering, but as above posters have proven the hard cash from higher-on to invest in the important things like the actual buses, and additional buses to provide a robust service on corridors with potential, were not. If I were to crack out my almanac I think the final outcome will probably not be pretty, but it will not be a wipeout. The 555 will survive, the 515 will probably face another cut - perhaps 5 trips a day each way, and the Sunday service will go, albeit with a summer experiment next year. The 458 will drop back to hourly as in the bad old days of the 481. I don't see why an hourly service can't be made to work sustainably - cf. Metrobus on the 291 between Crawley and Tunbridge Wells which has done so just fine for years. I don't know enough about Chertsey and Addlestone to make a guess about what will happen there, but I expect that is where the axe will come down hardest with a tokenistic or nonexistent replacement for the 556 and 557 in that area. Perhaps the 555 will be worked down to fill the gap. Arriva, with their Mercedes-Benz 436/437 offering, will be looking at these changes with some interest. They might even have an idea or two of their own. That post made a very interesting read - all summed up very well and detailed. Really like the analysis.
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