2020 Electric new Routemaster

[Deleted]

With it being almost 10 years since everyone was reacting to a design for a new routemaster im wondering if a new design could come in with an improvement on the current one which has created much debate. im personally still a fan and notice 415 now has lts on it

[george]

Apr 8, 2019 22:58:52 GMT @neilm8 said:

With it being almost 10 years since everyone was reacting to a design for a new routemaster im wondering if a new design could come in with an improvement on the current one which has created much debate. im personally still a fan and notice 415 now has lts on it

First of all I noticed this is your first post so welcome, I'm fairly new as well.
From the outside I think they look good but my commendations end right there. If you are talking about it based on the same design but just being electric then I don't see that happening reason being is tfl have lost so much revenue from the 3 doors. However a completely new design might happen.

[Deleted]

I think three doors help and do they really lose all this revenue or is it a myth? I scan in always and surely those who do not and are caught must get hefty fines

[george]

Apr 8, 2019 23:24:32 GMT @neilm8 said:

I think three doors help and do they really lose all this revenue or is it a myth? I scan in always and surely those who do not and are caught must get hefty fines

I always see people not paying when boarding the back. They will get fined but they are willing to take the risk. The chance that a ticket inspectors comes on is fairly slim.

[Deleted]

Well the revenue lost cannot exceed what they were paying conductors otherwise they would have kept them on or brought them back. I just look at the routes without routemasters and think how ordinary. Buses here in Eastbourne on 99 route have high seats usb and wifi but still would prefer them routemasters on my local route.
Need something designed as close to an RT as possible in the coming years with all modern cons.

[Frenzie]

I don’t see new buses being manufactured but I can definitely see the current fleet of LTs getting converted to fully electric vehicles as battery technology progresses. The reason being that these buses pretty much have no life outside of London and TfL have spent a huge amount purchasing them so why not keep them for the next 20-30 years. They are due to be converted to front door boarding only which may help mitigate the fare evasion, however, as with any bus, you will always get people sneaking on through the rear doors to avoid paying.

[vjaska]

Apr 9, 2019 1:19:55 GMT Frenzie said:

I don’t see new buses being manufactured but I can definitely see the current fleet of LTs getting converted to fully electric vehicles as battery technology progresses. The reason being that these buses pretty much have no life outside of London and TfL have spent a huge amount purchasing them so why not keep them for the next 20-30 years. They are due to be converted to front door boarding only which may help mitigate the fare evasion, however, as with any bus, you will always get people sneaking on through the rear doors to avoid paying.

They won't last 20-30 years and I don't see them being converted to electric either as it would prove very costly to do so when you could purchase new electric double deckers at probably the same price particularly once electric technology is fully proven and improved.

@neilm8 the current mayor has no interest in the LT's and I can't see anymore being built in the future. The LT has shown why politicians shouldn't get involved with buses as lots of money was spent on a bus that is no better than conventional buses bar 3 door boarding and which cost much more than conventional buses. Sadly, the 415 has partly converted having lost a lovely batch of buses in the MMC's which means that's now four LT routes I have in my area

[Frenzie]

Apr 9, 2019 1:42:37 GMT vjaska said:

Apr 9, 2019 1:19:55 GMT Frenzie said:

I don’t see new buses being manufactured but I can definitely see the current fleet of LTs getting converted to fully electric vehicles as battery technology progresses. The reason being that these buses pretty much have no life outside of London and TfL have spent a huge amount purchasing them so why not keep them for the next 20-30 years. They are due to be converted to front door boarding only which may help mitigate the fare evasion, however, as with any bus, you will always get people sneaking on through the rear doors to avoid paying.

They won't last 20-30 years and I don't see them being converted to electric either as it would prove very costly to do so when you could purchase new electric double deckers at probably the same price particularly once electric technology is fully proven and improved.

@neilm8 the current mayor has no interest in the LT's and I can't see anymore being built in the future. The LT has shown why politicians shouldn't get involved with buses as lots of money was spent on a bus that is no better than conventional buses bar 3 door boarding and which cost much more than conventional buses. Sadly, the 415 has partly converted having lost a lovely batch of buses in the MMC's which means that's now four LT routes I have in my area

Okay, but I don’t get why you don’t like them. Please enlighten me as the areas I travel to the most don’t really have them.

[astock5000]

Apr 9, 2019 1:42:37 GMT vjaska said:

They won't last 20-30 years and I don't see them being converted to electric either as it would prove very costly to do so when you could purchase new electric double deckers at probably the same price particularly once electric technology is fully proven and improved.

@neilm8 the current mayor has no interest in the LT's and I can't see anymore being built in the future. The LT has shown why politicians shouldn't get involved with buses as lots of money was spent on a bus that is no better than conventional buses bar 3 door boarding and which cost much more than conventional buses. Sadly, the 415 has partly converted having lost a lovely batch of buses in the MMC's which means that's now four LT routes I have in my area

I agree that a conversion to electric is unlikely as although LTs are series hybrids and in theory you could replace the diesel engine with more batteries, it would likely not be simple in practice for various reasons. I don't see them lasting 30 years either, since most suitable routes may need to go to zero emission vehicles sooner than that.

However in terms of the merits of LTs compared to conventional buses, it depends on how you look at it and I doubt many people will change their opinions either way at this point. Conventional double deckers have worked fine all across London however I'd maintain that the LT has a better quality interior, the design has a lot of well thought out attention to detail, the acceleration is smooth and the second staircase does help with passenger flow.

Indeed I've always thought that the unbuilt NRM variant with no middle door would've been even better since it would solve the fare evasion issues, passenger flow would be only towards the rear all through the bus, and a short version would have a more reasonable number of lower deck seats than ST812. However the narrow rear door may have been more of a problem if all passengers other than wheelchair users had to exit that way.

Regarding cost, I believe it's the case that the last batch cost about the same as a conventional hybrid despite being a bigger, more complicated and higher spec bus (a benefit of ordering a standard design in bulk?). That said, the open platform mode was entirely political and in my opinion not worth the cost of the extra crew member, but without that interference the bus wouldn't exist at all. I'm left thinking that maybe it went wrong for London bus designs way back in the 1960s when the FRM project was abandoned and the XRM never happened.

[snowman]

Apr 9, 2019 2:18:56 GMT astock5000 said:

Apr 9, 2019 1:42:37 GMT vjaska said:

They won't last 20-30 years and I don't see them being converted to electric either as it would prove very costly to do so when you could purchase new electric double deckers at probably the same price particularly once electric technology is fully proven and improved.

@neilm8 the current mayor has no interest in the LT's and I can't see anymore being built in the future. The LT has shown why politicians shouldn't get involved with buses as lots of money was spent on a bus that is no better than conventional buses bar 3 door boarding and which cost much more than conventional buses. Sadly, the 415 has partly converted having lost a lovely batch of buses in the MMC's which means that's now four LT routes I have in my area

I agree that a conversion to electric is unlikely as although LTs are series hybrids and in theory you could replace the diesel engine with more batteries, it would likely not be simple in practice for various reasons. I don't see them lasting 30 years either, since most suitable routes may need to go to zero emission vehicles sooner than that.

However in terms of the merits of LTs compared to conventional buses, it depends on how you look at it and I doubt many people will change their opinions either way at this point. Conventional double deckers have worked fine all across London however I'd maintain that the LT has a better quality interior, the design has a lot of well thought out attention to detail, the acceleration is smooth and the second staircase does help with passenger flow.

Indeed I've always thought that the unbuilt NRM variant with no middle door would've been even better since it would solve the fare evasion issues, passenger flow would be only towards the rear all through the bus, and a short version would have a more reasonable number of lower deck seats than ST812. However the narrow rear door may have been more of a problem if all passengers other than wheelchair users had to exit that way.

Regarding cost, I believe it's the case that the last batch cost about the same as a conventional hybrid despite being a bigger, more complicated and higher spec bus (a benefit of ordering a standard design in bulk?). That said, the open platform mode was entirely political and in my opinion not worth the cost of the extra crew member, but without that interference the bus wouldn't exist at all. I'm left thinking that maybe it went wrong for London bus designs way back in the 1960s when the FRM project was abandoned and the XRM never happened.

Although designed for 14 years, I could easily see it extended to nearer 16-20 years, but nowhere near as long as 30. Simple economics, they have been paid for, so as long as maintenance doesn’t get excessive, makes sense to get as much use out of them as possible.

Can’t see a full electric conversion either, but battery technology is slowly improving (although cost is not coming down much). Some of the early ones had replacement batteries already. Sometime around 7-9 years old a decision will need to be made about if batteries need to be changed mid life. Weight is already an issue so any increase in electric range will need to be evaluated against the weight of latest battery technology.

I bought the book (the earlier version) and there are mock ups of variants including single decks and a bendy bus, but I do not see the design revived. Even Wrightbus has made no attempt to incorporate its look into other designs. Yes 6 hybrids for RATP and 2 electric prototypes got built, but that is history now. Can’t see any more happening.

[sid]

Apr 8, 2019 23:24:32 GMT @neilm8 said:

I think three doors help and do they really lose all this revenue or is it a myth? I scan in always and surely those who do not and are caught must get hefty fines

Does anyone ever get caught? And if they do they'll probably just get off and get on another LT for free,I don't see any chance of any fines being imposed. Whilst I like the LT I don't think we need anymore three doored buses, they worked very well initially with a conductor and open rear platform which was the whole point of the bus but since those features have been removed what is the point in three doors which obviously means less seating on the lower deck? It would seem unlikely that they will ever be converted to all electric but who knows? Either way I think they'll be around for sometime yet, possibly being moved out of Central London onto suburban routes?

[MartyJ]

I doubt many of them will be around by 2030 as by then they will be near the end of their working life and there will be a strong emphasis to move towards an all-electric fleet especially in central London.

[vjaska]

Apr 9, 2019 2:03:35 GMT Frenzie said:

Apr 9, 2019 1:42:37 GMT vjaska said:

They won't last 20-30 years and I don't see them being converted to electric either as it would prove very costly to do so when you could purchase new electric double deckers at probably the same price particularly once electric technology is fully proven and improved.

@neilm8 the current mayor has no interest in the LT's and I can't see anymore being built in the future. The LT has shown why politicians shouldn't get involved with buses as lots of money was spent on a bus that is no better than conventional buses bar 3 door boarding and which cost much more than conventional buses. Sadly, the 415 has partly converted having lost a lovely batch of buses in the MMC's which means that's now four LT routes I have in my area

Okay, but I don’t get why you don’t like them. Please enlighten me as the areas I travel to the most don’t really have them.

They look horrible, the seats are uncomfortable to ride on, they are still incredibly hot to travel on during hot weather compared to conventional buses and the motor sound on them is incredibly annoying like a thudding noise ringing through your head.

[wirewiper]

>>> Although designed for 14 years <<<

We are reaching a crunch point .... the earliest examples are now reaching a point where they will need a mid-life refurbishment if they are to achieve a service life of 14 years or longer. However they are such a bespoke design that it may be judged uneconomic to do a full mid-life refurbishment, and TfL may adopt a policy of make-do-and-mend, run them into the ground and scrap them as they fall by the wayside.

[snoggle]

Apr 9, 2019 1:19:55 GMT Frenzie said:

I don’t see new buses being manufactured but I can definitely see the current fleet of LTs getting converted to fully electric vehicles as battery technology progresses. The reason being that these buses pretty much have no life outside of London and TfL have spent a huge amount purchasing them so why not keep them for the next 20-30 years. They are due to be converted to front door boarding only which may help mitigate the fare evasion, however, as with any bus, you will always get people sneaking on through the rear doors to avoid paying.

Like others who've replied I simply don't see them lasting a long time. They're not built to last forever. I've seen plenty of photos of poor build quality on NB4L interiors and some of the ones I've seen in service recently look battered and bruised. There's no sense in which they are getting extra TLC to make them last longer.

There is no obvious desire from the current Mayor to do anything about converting existing buses to zero emission. The trials with diesel to hybrid conversions have almost all failed - only GAL are persisting with their WVLs. Earlier electric single decker designs went on the scrap heap. Even if it were possible I can't see TfL forking out tens of millions to somehow convert NB4Ls to all electric power. Where's the money for such a scheme and would there even be any sort of real competition to do the design and conversion work? I suspect TfL would be locked into a deal with Wrightbus that would be unlikely to be value for money. TfL have a big enough headache on their hands with trying to find competitors to BYD for electric vehicles. They've tried various demonstrators (Yutong, Irizar, Wrightbus, Optare) but few, other than Optare, have lasted very long. They must be hoping against hope that the electric Metrodecker proves to be an attractive and reliable vehicle so that BYD/ADL have some actual competition for future electric DD orders. As for single deckers - who knows what will happen?

TfL have also shown no signs at all of changing their basic bus spec to require buses to last longer than 14 years in London service. There are usually a few rogue exceptions that exist because of operational issues at a company or a garage but TfL clearly don't want fleets of 18-20 year old vehicles limping round London streets. If the current Mayor is re-elected in 2020 I suspect we may start to see the end of the NB4L by the end of his second term purely through the use of the contracting regime and a requirement for zero emission double deckers on key routes into Central London. I don't believe you will see any formal manifesto commitment about removing NB4Ls - that would create a hostage to fortune.