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Post by snoggle on May 1, 2019 20:27:49 GMT
The London Datastore has now updated all its numbers of London public transport journeys up to and including Period 13 (March this year). This means it is possible to calculate an annual total for the various modes. It is worth saying here that these totals will almost certainly be updated and adjusted by TfL prior to formal publication in the Annual Report. This is standard practice.
Buses - 2,220m pass jnys. This is down 27m on 2017/18.
Tube - 1,383m pass jnys. This is up from 1,357m in 2017/18. The startling thing is that the increase almost exactly matches the decline on buses.
DLR - 121.6m pass jnys. Up very slightly from 2017/18.
Tram - 28.8m pass jnys. Down by 0.2m on 2017/18
Overground - 189.5m pass jnys. Down by 0.4m on 2017/18
TfL Rail - 55.3m pass jnys. Up by around 8m pass jnys - largely accounted for by the inclusion of the Paddington to Heathrow service. In an ideal world TfL would, of course, have been reporting on Crossrail pass jnys by now but we know what's transpired there!
We have a few more weeks before the route by route spreadsheet emerges. I expect there will be no great delay this year as the new methodology should apply across the year and be directly comparable with last year's numbers.
This thread can be the place where the spreadsheet numbers are discussed as and when they are published. As ever an updated master spreadsheet should be published by me not long after TfL release their numbers.
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Post by rj131 on May 1, 2019 21:29:07 GMT
The London Datastore has now updated all its numbers of London public transport journeys up to and including Period 13 (March this year). This means it is possible to calculate an annual total for the various modes. It is worth saying here that these totals will almost certainly be updated and adjusted by TfL prior to formal publication in the Annual Report. This is standard practice. Buses - 2,220m pass jnys. This is down 27m on 2017/18. Tube - 1,383m pass jnys. This is up from 1,357m in 2017/18. The startling thing is that the increase almost exactly matches the decline on buses. DLR - 121.6m pass jnys. Up very slightly from 2017/18. Tram - 28.8m pass jnys. Down by 0.2m on 2017/18 Overground - 189.5m pass jnys. Down by 0.4m on 2017/18 TfL Rail - 55.3m pass jnys. Up by around 8m pass jnys - largely accounted for by the inclusion of the Paddington to Heathrow service. In an ideal world TfL would, of course, have been reporting on Crossrail pass jnys by now but we know what's transpired there! We have a few more weeks before the route by route spreadsheet emerges. I expect there will be no great delay this year as the new methodology should apply across the year and be directly comparable with last year's numbers. This thread can be the place where the spreadsheet numbers are discussed as and when they are published. As ever an updated master spreadsheet should be published by me not long after TfL release their numbers. Interestingly I cannot find anyway on the TfL website linking to the current edition of bus patronage, they must be updating it. Yes hopefully there’ll be no delay this year.
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Post by rj131 on May 1, 2019 21:51:14 GMT
Time for some predictions methinks.
Can the 25 yet again cling on to being the busiest route? General consensus is that last year it was going to lose its crown but defied the odds. Can it do it again?
Interestingly when I’ve been in London recently it looks like 25 loadings have picked right up again. The amount of absolutely packed 25’s I see now especially in peaks is much higher now, but that could be due to its PVR being near enough halved so less buses to spread the load. A lot of buses off peak are still remarkably busy, so a glimmer of its former glory does still remain as it begins its new chapter running with hybrid StreetWrecks.
Undoubtedly the 425 extension will have stolen some of its passengers and the S**tty Thameslink curtailment will have lost it some. However last year the 25 was busiest by well over three million passengers, and considering its main rival route the 18 is also on a downward spiral losing over a million each year, I predict the 25 could afford to lose around 4.5 million journeys to still remain the busiest route. It’s a huge huge drop, so will it lose that many? Time will tell, I really really hope it manages to cling onto the busiest route yet again, although I am a little doubtful despite how big a drop it can afford to have.
I also predict the 140 will increase yet again, other substantial increases could also be the 139 and 183 amongst a few more. I wonder how much of a boost the 178 and 291 will get with their new decker allocations, considering 5 months of this years patronage recordings were would have been with them.
I think the savage 412 frequency reduction will now push the route down into 6 figures, and I wonder how much of a dent there will be into the 277’s patronage after its curtailment. The 277 is particularly significant as it’s been bucking the general trend of decline over the past three years with very aggressive growth, that is almost certain to stop this year. I’m also very intrigued to see how much further the ‘car park’ routes will fall, the 9, 11, 14, 15, 24 etc. And with huge constant slumps in the 38’s patronage over the past few years, will that route finally join the 73 with its collapse into 7 figures.
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Post by snoggle on May 1, 2019 22:36:58 GMT
Interestingly I cannot find anyway on the TfL website linking to the current edition of bus patronage, they must be updating it. Yes hopefully there’ll be no delay this year. The old sheet is in the same place it's always been - tfl.gov.uk/corporate/publications-and-reports/buses. It's a little early for it to be updated. Usually later in May or early in June. The Audit & Assurance Cttee meeting that will discuss and approve the Annual Report and Accounts is on 10 June this year.
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Post by capitalomnibus on May 1, 2019 23:07:43 GMT
Time for some predictions methinks. Can the 25 yet again cling on to being the busiest route? General consensus is that last year it was going to lose its crown but defied the odds. Can it do it again? Interestingly when I’ve been in London recently it looks like 25 loadings have picked right up again. The amount of absolutely packed 25’s I see now especially in peaks is much higher now, but that could be due to its PVR being near enough halved so less buses to spread the load. A lot of buses off peak are still remarkably busy, so a glimmer of its former glory does still remain as it begins its new chapter running with hybrid StreetWrecks. Undoubtedly the 425 extension will have stolen some of its passengers and the S**tty Thameslink curtailment will have lost it some. However last year the 25 was busiest by well over three million passengers, and considering its main rival route the 18 is also on a downward spiral losing over a million each year, I predict the 25 could afford to lose around 4.5 million journeys to still remain the busiest route. It’s a huge huge drop, so will it lose that many? Time will tell, I really really hope it manages to cling onto the busiest route yet again, although I am a little doubtful despite how big a drop it can afford to have. I also predict the 140 will increase yet again, other substantial increases could also be the 139 and 183 amongst a few more. I wonder how much of a boost the 178 and 291 will get with their new decker allocations, considering 5 months of this years patronage recordings were would have been with them. I think the savage 412 frequency reduction will now push the route down into 6 figures, and I wonder how much of a dent there will be into the 277’s patronage after its curtailment. The 277 is particularly significant as it’s been bucking the general trend of decline over the past three years with very aggressive growth, that is almost certain to stop this year. I’m also very intrigued to see how much further the ‘car park’ routes will fall, the 9, 11, 14, 15, 24 etc. And with huge constant slumps in the 38’s patronage over the past few years, will that route finally join the 73 with its collapse into 7 figures. I would say many LT routes would show a bigger slump, due to higher fare evasion. Even if it is not fare evasion, people with bus passes are not going to bother to show the driver as they do not have to go pass him, so it would not be registered.
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Post by stuckonthe486 on May 2, 2019 0:58:38 GMT
Buses - 2,220m pass jnys. This is down 27m on 2017/18. Tube - 1,383m pass jnys. This is up from 1,357m in 2017/18. The startling thing is that the increase almost exactly matches the decline on buses. I wonder how many passengers the £1.50 off-peak non-Z1 Tube fare is taking away from buses...
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Post by sid on May 2, 2019 5:48:07 GMT
Time for some predictions methinks. Can the 25 yet again cling on to being the busiest route? General consensus is that last year it was going to lose its crown but defied the odds. Can it do it again? Interestingly when I’ve been in London recently it looks like 25 loadings have picked right up again. The amount of absolutely packed 25’s I see now especially in peaks is much higher now, but that could be due to its PVR being near enough halved so less buses to spread the load. A lot of buses off peak are still remarkably busy, so a glimmer of its former glory does still remain as it begins its new chapter running with hybrid StreetWrecks. Undoubtedly the 425 extension will have stolen some of its passengers and the S**tty Thameslink curtailment will have lost it some. However last year the 25 was busiest by well over three million passengers, and considering its main rival route the 18 is also on a downward spiral losing over a million each year, I predict the 25 could afford to lose around 4.5 million journeys to still remain the busiest route. It’s a huge huge drop, so will it lose that many? Time will tell, I really really hope it manages to cling onto the busiest route yet again, although I am a little doubtful despite how big a drop it can afford to have. I also predict the 140 will increase yet again, other substantial increases could also be the 139 and 183 amongst a few more. I wonder how much of a boost the 178 and 291 will get with their new decker allocations, considering 5 months of this years patronage recordings were would have been with them. I think the savage 412 frequency reduction will now push the route down into 6 figures, and I wonder how much of a dent there will be into the 277’s patronage after its curtailment. The 277 is particularly significant as it’s been bucking the general trend of decline over the past three years with very aggressive growth, that is almost certain to stop this year. I’m also very intrigued to see how much further the ‘car park’ routes will fall, the 9, 11, 14, 15, 24 etc. And with huge constant slumps in the 38’s patronage over the past few years, will that route finally join the 73 with its collapse into 7 figures. I would say many LT routes would show a bigger slump, due to higher fare evasion. Even if it is not fare evasion, people with bus passes are not going to bother to show the driver as they do not have to go pass him, so it would not be registered. I thought pass holders were supposed to board through the front door and show the driver the pass? Whether they actually do in practice is another matter.
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Post by sid on May 2, 2019 6:10:18 GMT
Time for some predictions methinks. Can the 25 yet again cling on to being the busiest route? General consensus is that last year it was going to lose its crown but defied the odds. Can it do it again? Interestingly when I’ve been in London recently it looks like 25 loadings have picked right up again. The amount of absolutely packed 25’s I see now especially in peaks is much higher now, but that could be due to its PVR being near enough halved so less buses to spread the load. A lot of buses off peak are still remarkably busy, so a glimmer of its former glory does still remain as it begins its new chapter running with hybrid StreetWrecks. Undoubtedly the 425 extension will have stolen some of its passengers and the S**tty Thameslink curtailment will have lost it some. However last year the 25 was busiest by well over three million passengers, and considering its main rival route the 18 is also on a downward spiral losing over a million each year, I predict the 25 could afford to lose around 4.5 million journeys to still remain the busiest route. It’s a huge huge drop, so will it lose that many? Time will tell, I really really hope it manages to cling onto the busiest route yet again, although I am a little doubtful despite how big a drop it can afford to have. I also predict the 140 will increase yet again, other substantial increases could also be the 139 and 183 amongst a few more. I wonder how much of a boost the 178 and 291 will get with their new decker allocations, considering 5 months of this years patronage recordings were would have been with them. I think the savage 412 frequency reduction will now push the route down into 6 figures, and I wonder how much of a dent there will be into the 277’s patronage after its curtailment. The 277 is particularly significant as it’s been bucking the general trend of decline over the past three years with very aggressive growth, that is almost certain to stop this year. I’m also very intrigued to see how much further the ‘car park’ routes will fall, the 9, 11, 14, 15, 24 etc. And with huge constant slumps in the 38’s patronage over the past few years, will that route finally join the 73 with its collapse into 7 figures. Isn't the busiest route title a bit misleading for the 25? I would imagine a route like the W7 carries more passengers per bus per mile? The 412 frequency is still quite generous considering usage, it's a nice route but it's never exactly going to be a money spinner.
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Post by rugbyref on May 2, 2019 7:35:52 GMT
I would say many LT routes would show a bigger slump, due to higher fare evasion. Even if it is not fare evasion, people with bus passes are not going to bother to show the driver as they do not have to go pass him, so it would not be registered. I thought pass holders were supposed to board through the front door and show the driver the pass? Whether they actually do in practice is another matter. You are probably correct, but when I had an annual network card/ season (whatever the gold version is called) I can’t remember being instructed anywhere in the application process that I had to use the front doors on the 507 or 521. How do these users get instructed?
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Post by sid on May 2, 2019 8:56:32 GMT
I thought pass holders were supposed to board through the front door and show the driver the pass? Whether they actually do in practice is another matter. You are probably correct, but when I had an annual network card/ season (whatever the gold version is called) I can’t remember being instructed anywhere in the application process that I had to use the front doors on the 507 or 521. How do these users get instructed? Good question, I remember reading that somewhere although for the life of me I can't remember where.
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Post by wirewiper on May 2, 2019 9:11:05 GMT
I thought pass holders were supposed to board through the front door and show the driver the pass? Whether they actually do in practice is another matter. You are probably correct, but when I had an annual network card/ season (whatever the gold version is called) I can’t remember being instructed anywhere in the application process that I had to use the front doors on the 507 or 521. How do these users get instructed? Open boarding through any door was introduced when the 507 and 521 were converted to Bendybus, this was retained when the routes were converted to rigid Citaros and as far as I know still applies on these two routes. I have never seen it stated anywhere that holders of paper tickets must board by the front door and show them to the driver. This is different to the LTs where passengers holding paper tickets have been required to board by the front door and show them to the driver from the outset.
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Post by rj131 on May 2, 2019 11:27:00 GMT
Time for some predictions methinks. Can the 25 yet again cling on to being the busiest route? General consensus is that last year it was going to lose its crown but defied the odds. Can it do it again? Interestingly when I’ve been in London recently it looks like 25 loadings have picked right up again. The amount of absolutely packed 25’s I see now especially in peaks is much higher now, but that could be due to its PVR being near enough halved so less buses to spread the load. A lot of buses off peak are still remarkably busy, so a glimmer of its former glory does still remain as it begins its new chapter running with hybrid StreetWrecks. Undoubtedly the 425 extension will have stolen some of its passengers and the S**tty Thameslink curtailment will have lost it some. However last year the 25 was busiest by well over three million passengers, and considering its main rival route the 18 is also on a downward spiral losing over a million each year, I predict the 25 could afford to lose around 4.5 million journeys to still remain the busiest route. It’s a huge huge drop, so will it lose that many? Time will tell, I really really hope it manages to cling onto the busiest route yet again, although I am a little doubtful despite how big a drop it can afford to have. I also predict the 140 will increase yet again, other substantial increases could also be the 139 and 183 amongst a few more. I wonder how much of a boost the 178 and 291 will get with their new decker allocations, considering 5 months of this years patronage recordings were would have been with them. I think the savage 412 frequency reduction will now push the route down into 6 figures, and I wonder how much of a dent there will be into the 277’s patronage after its curtailment. The 277 is particularly significant as it’s been bucking the general trend of decline over the past three years with very aggressive growth, that is almost certain to stop this year. I’m also very intrigued to see how much further the ‘car park’ routes will fall, the 9, 11, 14, 15, 24 etc. And with huge constant slumps in the 38’s patronage over the past few years, will that route finally join the 73 with its collapse into 7 figures. Isn't the busiest route title a bit misleading for the 25? I would imagine a route like the W7 carries more passengers per bus per mile? The 412 frequency is still quite generous considering usage, it's a nice route but it's never exactly going to be a money spinner. The comparison you have given there is a bit like a Bugatti Veyron and Ariel Atom in terms of power. The Bugatti is the physically more powerful (about 1000bph) but the Atom is so small and light that it has more bhp per ton, so in the terms of the example you used, the Atom is the more powerful one. So it depends on the view point you take I guess. So to clear up any discrepancies, I wonder if the 25 will still remain the the most used route I agree re the 412, however it could be a case of the fact the route loses even more money now than before because of the few people who still do use it have now abandoned it, more than offsetting the saving of reducing the frequency.
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Post by sid on May 2, 2019 11:43:17 GMT
Isn't the busiest route title a bit misleading for the 25? I would imagine a route like the W7 carries more passengers per bus per mile? The 412 frequency is still quite generous considering usage, it's a nice route but it's never exactly going to be a money spinner. The comparison you have given there is a bit like a Bugatti Veyron and Ariel Atom in terms of power. The Bugatti is the physically more powerful (about 1000bph) but the Atom is so small and light that it has more bhp per ton, so in the terms of the example you used, the Atom is the more powerful one. So it depends on the view point you take I guess. So to clear up any discrepancies, I wonder if the 25 will still remain the the most used route I agree re the 412, however it could be a case of the fact the route loses even more money now than before because of the few people who still do use it have now abandoned it, more than offsetting the saving of reducing the frequency. I'd see it as like comparing two footballers, player A has scored more goals than player B but player A has played far more games than player B. So yes the 25 will probably stay top all the time it has the highest PVR. Presumably the 25 will also have a higher accident rate than other routes for the same reason? As for the 412, passengers abandoned it or were never there in the first place long before any frequency reductions were implemented. My memory goes back to when the 54 and 234 went to Selsdon and it was pretty dead then. It's just not what would be classed as good bus operating territory.
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Post by vjaska on May 2, 2019 11:53:37 GMT
The comparison you have given there is a bit like a Bugatti Veyron and Ariel Atom in terms of power. The Bugatti is the physically more powerful (about 1000bph) but the Atom is so small and light that it has more bhp per ton, so in the terms of the example you used, the Atom is the more powerful one. So it depends on the view point you take I guess. So to clear up any discrepancies, I wonder if the 25 will still remain the the most used route I agree re the 412, however it could be a case of the fact the route loses even more money now than before because of the few people who still do use it have now abandoned it, more than offsetting the saving of reducing the frequency. I'd see it as like comparing two footballers, player A has scored more goals than player B but player A has played far more games than player B. So yes the 25 will probably stay top all the time it has the highest PVR. Presumably the 25 will also have a higher accident rate than other routes for the same reason? As for the 412, passengers abandoned it or were never there in the first place long before any frequency reductions were implemented. My memory goes back to when the 54 and 234 went to Selsdon and it was pretty dead then. The 25 doesn't have the highest PVR anymore - it lost that title to the 38 when it received its first cutback. It now sits on 32.
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Post by bookd on May 2, 2019 14:21:58 GMT
I have always thought that the level of fare evasion on bendy buses, LT class and the 521 and 507 are overstated. Observers and journalists will see lots of people apparently boarding without paying or touching in whilst in many cases the people involved will have valid travelcards or other passes; they have a valid ticket, but have not produced it so they are strictly out of order, and will ultimately upset the statistics, but are not necessarily cheating. I have a freedom pass, and always touch in on an LT, but if I didn't no one would care unless there was a revenue check.
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