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Post by bertrell on Dec 10, 2020 12:36:37 GMT
132, was won with Electrics some weeks ago. 57/213 expire in 2023 and the 131 in late 2022. 335, stagecoach have a chance too from Catford and Plumstead which are far closer to the route than Dartford. I, can see the 32 MHVs, possibly moving to AL/A/AF. The 57/85/213 will I suspect get new electrics as they come up for Tender in Summer 2023 and will RATP Win them along with the H91/H32 i n a nother mass Electric Order? I don’t see the MHV’s moving to AF as I also don’t see the E’s on the 337 being discarded until the end of the current contract. Once again, it is unclear if all MHV’s will leave PM as the 363 is officially allocated some of the new to the 63 examples alongside the EH’s and the 37 has two new to Q examples alongside its E’s Thinking aloud, not based on fact Vjaska!
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Post by Deleted on Dec 10, 2020 12:38:41 GMT
I don’t see the MHV’s moving to AF as I also don’t see the E’s on the 337 being discarded until the end of the current contract. Once again, it is unclear if all MHV’s will leave PM as the 363 is officially allocated some of the new to the 63 examples alongside the EH’s and the 37 has two new to Q examples alongside its E’s Thinking aloud, not based on fact Vjaska! Just like most of your posts then...
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Post by vjaska on Dec 10, 2020 12:40:46 GMT
I don’t see the MHV’s moving to AF as I also don’t see the E’s on the 337 being discarded until the end of the current contract. Once again, it is unclear if all MHV’s will leave PM as the 363 is officially allocated some of the new to the 63 examples alongside the EH’s and the 37 has two new to Q examples alongside its E’s Thinking aloud, not based on fact Vjaska! I never said it was or wasn’t based on fact - I’m merely replying with my own thoughts.
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Post by capitalomnibus on Dec 10, 2020 12:44:46 GMT
The parallels between today and their 2014/15 situation is frighteningly similar. At the time, Arriva had over 200 DAF DB250s of different types and likewise many B7TLs. Garages like Norwood were filled to the brim with them and hence a lot of them simply got wiped out. It's a bit scary to think we are now at a point to be comparing older E400s and DB300s to these buses but the fact is they too are too old for existing bids and therefore are likely to cause trouble upon retendering.
Arriva has seriously neglected garages like TC. The 405 gain was their first new contract with an allocation of entirely new buses in a substantially long period of time. Other than that, it's usually a bunch of old Ts and DWs which get thrown their way. At some point, there simply isn't going to be an existing set of vehicles elsewhere in the operation for a retender bid and I fear that they could lose big as a result. The 197 and 403 have already gone and the 405 hasn't been enough to offset this.
Arriva, of the big five operators, has also been by far and away the least committed so far to electric operation which too is noticeably concerning.
TC is in an amazing state when compared to DX and GY, GY's newest bus is 11reg while DX's newest bus is 60reg making their newest buses 10 years old. The 173 change was funny because the oldest buses it could use at Stagecoach were still newer than the newest bus it could use while at Arriva, the exact same goes for the 128 as well. Arriva's luck mostly tends to come when their "safe" routes such as the 242, 341, 38 etc need their buses replaced and they then get a load of existing released for other wins. Arriva got extremely lucky there because a lot of these routes got new buses around 2009 and 2010, and then required new Hybrids next tender due to the ULEZ, releasing a load of buses compliant for a suburban contract. With the current fleet this is now unlikely as the next electric deadline will still allow an extra contract to be run with the Hybrids and the deadline is London wide, meaning no suburban cascades. Naturally as a result this will probably mean less existing available for their more competitive suburban routes while other operators can be cheaper in other ways such as by maximising driver hours with multiple changeover locations, using remote sign on or even bringing over cheaper drivers from the continent. I'm sure someone over at Arriva is working on how to improve their bidding process, the SF closure was done in order to be cheaper so they are certainly aware of their issues and are combating them. The 313 will be a particularly interesting route to see how their bids work on just pure costs when buses are taken out of the equation, that route has sizeable competition. Another route which could be interesting is the 125, Palmers Green isn't that far from the Winchmore Hill terminus and the 319s buses are still available for a bid so that could be a nice existing gain for them. The 335 comes up soon after and sadly I do see Arriva losing that route, simply because it was spun off the 48 contract and handed to them and I'm not too sure if Arriva are operating it at the cheapest, especially compared to Go Ahead at MG. As that route has never been out to tender before every operator is going to probably be bidding blind which could prove interesting. Looking further, you have the 55 and 56 coming up. The 55 could be a huge boost for AE (although probably doing completely the opposite to T in the process). The 2, 415 and 432 all coming up at once makes it all to play for with Abellio, Arriva and Go Ahead as I'm sure Abellio and Go Ahead have space to fit in the 2 and the relevant extra route should they need to. I think the electric issue Arriva have is that they keep losing any potential electric route, they've only managed to keep the 319 with them while lost the 184, 160, 173, 230 and 106 which all went to new operators with electrics. The 106 now Go-Ahead has maximise the driving hours, with some of the duties doing more than what was at Arriva and longer hours overall. When the route was at Stagecoach prior to Arriva it had less hours than what Arriva did as it was not on route. Arriva could have put more hours on the duties but chose not to.
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Post by DT 11 on Dec 10, 2020 12:46:36 GMT
Today marks in excess of 6 months from the last award of TfL contract to operate a bus route. Even the 8th June was not a great day, only retaining 2 of the 5 incumbent routes. Does show how unlucky they have been with their fleet. The 492 and 229 were both the two routes in that group which had existing buses which seems to have helped them as a result. The 469 and B12 would have needed new buses. I'm not part of their bidding team so do not know, however I wonder if opting for new continuously seems to skew costs against their favour. A lot of their losses have been where new buses would have been required such as the 184, 173 and 160, Although they all then proceeded to be awarded with new with the new operator so I wonder if Arriva's bidding costs are just about enough where an existing bid barely makes the cheapest, resulting in any requirement for new pushing the cost over. Although with the 173 and 160 I do wonder if the 319s HVs were used on a rebid but then didn't work out. They do have the 313 coming up soon, that will be a test as no operator is likely required to factor new buses into a bid. 469 & B12 however are getting existing buses the current fleet that are on those routes could have been retained for another contract as they were upgraded to Euro 6 they could have kept ENX1-8 and scrapped ENL8-10, ENL77-79 that are still Euro 4. Overall I’m happy to see those routes get newer buses, those ENLs are dreadful to drive and still have Opening Emergency Exit Side door and back window and always breakdown. Soon to be a rare thing because most buses now have Break Glass hammers. Overall from reading above comments Arriva do need to get moving quickly with the Electric Buses I agree because Abellio London, Go Ahead London & Stagecoach are well ahead... The 319 is currently the only route due to recieve Electric Buses. Nothing wrong with having older fleet still in service however as when everything is newish it is still good to have some “Golden Oldies” still around. Overall as I can remember Arriva have generally always tried there best to make full use of fleet in London. Imagine if all the DLAs & DAF DW were replaced early with Enviro 400 & DB300 DW... Does anyone remember the last route to have bench seat DLAs?
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Post by Londontransport3 on Dec 10, 2020 12:49:11 GMT
Does show how unlucky they have been with their fleet. The 492 and 229 were both the two routes in that group which had existing buses which seems to have helped them as a result. The 469 and B12 would have needed new buses. I'm not part of their bidding team so do not know, however I wonder if opting for new continuously seems to skew costs against their favour. A lot of their losses have been where new buses would have been required such as the 184, 173 and 160, Although they all then proceeded to be awarded with new with the new operator so I wonder if Arriva's bidding costs are just about enough where an existing bid barely makes the cheapest, resulting in any requirement for new pushing the cost over. Although with the 173 and 160 I do wonder if the 319s HVs were used on a rebid but then didn't work out. They do have the 313 coming up soon, that will be a test as no operator is likely required to factor new buses into a bid. 469 & B12 however are getting existing buses the current fleet that are on those routes could have been retained for another contract as they were upgraded to Euro 6. Overall I’m happy to see those routes get newer buses, those ENLs are dreadful to drive and still have Opening Emergency Exit Side door and back window and always breakdown. Soon to be a rare thing because most buses now have Break Glass hammers. Overall from reading above comments Arriva do need to get moving quickly with the Electric Buses I agree because Abellio London, Go Ahead London & Stagecoach are well ahead... The 319 is currently the only route due to recieve Electric Buses. Nothing wrong with having older fleet still in service however as when everything is newish it is still good to have some “Golden Oldies” still around. Overall as I can remember Arriva have generally always tried there best to make full use of fleet in London. Imagine if all the DLAs & DAF DW were replaced early with Enviro 400 & DB300 DW... Does anyone remember the last route to have bench seat DLAs? 198 had some of those old DLAs years ago 2010ish or abit later
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Post by 725DYE on Dec 10, 2020 12:51:31 GMT
I don’t see the MHV’s moving to AF as I also don’t see the E’s on the 337 being discarded until the end of the current contract. Once again, it is unclear if all MHV’s will leave PM as the 363 is officially allocated some of the new to the 63 examples alongside the EH’s and the 37 has two new to Q examples alongside its E’s Thinking aloud, not based on fact Vjaska! Don't see why you have to keep picking on him. His suggestions have been vastly more reasonable and fact-based than yours. I also didn't realise it was so shameful to express one's thoughts, or have we merely transformed into a censored totalitarian state?
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Post by DT 11 on Dec 10, 2020 12:52:02 GMT
Today marks in excess of 6 months from the last award of TfL contract to operate a bus route. Even the 8th June was not a great day, only retaining 2 of the 5 incumbent routes. Does show how unlucky they have been with their fleet. The 492 and 229 were both the two routes in that group which had existing buses which seems to have helped them as a result. The 469 and B12 would have needed new buses. I'm not part of their bidding team so do not know, however I wonder if opting for new continuously seems to skew costs against their favour. A lot of their losses have been where new buses would have been required such as the 184, 173 and 160, Although they all then proceeded to be awarded with new with the new operator so I wonder if Arriva's bidding costs are just about enough where an existing bid barely makes the cheapest, resulting in any requirement for new pushing the cost over. Although with the 173 and 160 I do wonder if the 319s HVs were used on a rebid but then didn't work out. They do have the 313 coming up soon, that will be a test as no operator is likely required to factor new buses into a bid. The HVs from 319... be interesting where they go. 198, 264 & 368 are options as these are soon due new contracts... In addition no idea whats happening to ENX28-30 probably withdrawn with all the ENLs or sent to TH. In addition to my previous post, other firms still have buses with opening Emergency Exits and rear windows however Arriva have the most still ENX1-8 I noticed have the emergency exit rear window. WVL274-331 and Im sure 11 Plate WVLs have them. @mhv85 am I right?
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Post by bertrell on Dec 10, 2020 12:55:44 GMT
Thinking aloud, not based on fact Vjaska! Don't see why you have to keep picking on him. His suggestions have been vastly more reasonable and fact-based than yours. I also didn't realise it was so shameful to express one's thoughts, or have we merely transformed into a censored totalitarian state? Sorry, I WAS NOT PICKING ON HIM!
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Post by capitalomnibus on Dec 10, 2020 12:56:03 GMT
TC is in an amazing state when compared to DX and GY, GY's newest bus is 11reg while DX's newest bus is 60reg making their newest buses 10 years old. The 173 change was funny because the oldest buses it could use at Stagecoach were still newer than the newest bus it could use while at Arriva, the exact same goes for the 128 as well. Arriva's luck mostly tends to come when their "safe" routes such as the 242, 341, 38 etc need their buses replaced and they then get a load of existing released for other wins. Arriva got extremely lucky there because a lot of these routes got new buses around 2009 and 2010, and then required new Hybrids next tender due to the ULEZ, releasing a load of buses compliant for a suburban contract. With the current fleet this is now unlikely as the next electric deadline will still allow an extra contract to be run with the Hybrids and the deadline is London wide, meaning no suburban cascades. Naturally as a result this will probably mean less existing available for their more competitive suburban routes while other operators can be cheaper in other ways such as by maximising driver hours with multiple changeover locations, using remote sign on or even bringing over cheaper drivers from the continent. I'm sure someone over at Arriva is working on how to improve their bidding process, the SF closure was done in order to be cheaper so they are certainly aware of their issues and are combating them. The 313 will be a particularly interesting route to see how their bids work on just pure costs when buses are taken out of the equation, that route has sizeable competition. Another route which could be interesting is the 125, Palmers Green isn't that far from the Winchmore Hill terminus and the 319s buses are still available for a bid so that could be a nice existing gain for them. The 335 comes up soon after and sadly I do see Arriva losing that route, simply because it was spun off the 48 contract and handed to them and I'm not too sure if Arriva are operating it at the cheapest, especially compared to Go Ahead at MG. As that route has never been out to tender before every operator is going to probably be bidding blind which could prove interesting. Looking further, you have the 55 and 56 coming up. The 55 could be a huge boost for AE (although probably doing completely the opposite to T in the process). The 2, 415 and 432 all coming up at once makes it all to play for with Abellio, Arriva and Go Ahead as I'm sure Abellio and Go Ahead have space to fit in the 2 and the relevant extra route should they need to. I think the electric issue Arriva have is that they keep losing any potential electric route, they've only managed to keep the 319 with them while lost the 184, 160, 173, 230 and 106 which all went to new operators with electrics. The sad thing is, going forward, that every route potentially will require new electric buses, the days of cheeky bids with knackered stuff on the 318 (even to the point of reinstatement of EN's 5 and 9 from scrap / withdrawn fleet at Edmonton) are well and truly over. I still wonder if DB is saddled with Arriva given the lack of interest to take pride in the fleet, especially within London, I know there was rumours of sell offs before, but that's gone away for now (though I wonder if a No Deal Brexit would make them think again in the near future). I jest about the lack of refurbishment at Tottenham, while it seems other random buses (latest being Enfield's DW575) get attention, where some of the buses on the 123 are looking desperately tatty (DW471, 334, 335, 539)... it reminds me of the neglect of the 258 before it was lost. They were lucky to retain the 123 in my opinion, but only lost out on the 230 and others due to no electric infrastructure investment in the majority of London North garages. Sounds bad but I hope Stagecoach win the 123 next (doable from WH or BK) as it would be nice to travel on a bus that's cared for. I know some passengers, especially kids can be messy, but some of the buses I have been on are like mobile landfills They may have improved with the performance of the DWs, but they need some TLC. Don't get me started on the 158 where the buses are looking such a sorry state. I fear for tender bids in future if there's no investment in electric buses. Even the newest HVs at Tottenham are starting to look grubby. I know TfL is a mess at the moment but at least their Tender Department still works properly. It will be a shock seeing buses on the 184 with working destination blinds, especially brand new ones from GAL. The way Arriva is heading, they would do well to invest like Northumberland Park's garage in the majority of buses being electric (save for the 232 Streetlites) or they will lose a hell of a lot more. Here's hoping Go Ahead win the 318 next time round as the current fleet at Tottenham look a state despite recent refurb at Enfield last year It was not a rumour of the sell off, it was up for sale but the price was too high and then DB wanted it sold as a whole instead of carving it up. So in the end, its been put on the back burner for now. I really do not understand your over exaggeration about the buses at [AR] needing refurb etc. Even with relatively near new buses on the 243 and 341, there are still shiny buses. Even down to the DW's you mention they are no way as bad as you make them out to be. I have seen many buses around London looking in a more crusty condition than what you are talking about. The 476 WVN's has far grubby buses than some of the DW's but you never mention them. If you go back around 30 years ago or more then many buses were crying for a refurb and never got them. After Aldenham/Chiswick closed the state of LT buses went down. I remember buses with bashed up roof domes, holes in bodywork, 50 shades of red bodywork, buses fading to pink, the interior was nasty. I remember riding many T's on the 123 then with horrible bodywork, leaking interiors, grafitti everywhere, reek smells, the list goes on. They only got treated when the buses were getting repainted into LBL grey skirt livery. Stagecoach have bid for the 123 a few times without success, I think it was initially mooted to run from [T] if won around the time Arriva had won it. If they did win it now I can only see it run from [BK] or [T] not [WH] FYI the majority of the ENL's on the 184's blinds work, just 2 of them are difficult to turn, but not entirely seized.
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Post by vjaska on Dec 10, 2020 12:57:12 GMT
Does show how unlucky they have been with their fleet. The 492 and 229 were both the two routes in that group which had existing buses which seems to have helped them as a result. The 469 and B12 would have needed new buses. I'm not part of their bidding team so do not know, however I wonder if opting for new continuously seems to skew costs against their favour. A lot of their losses have been where new buses would have been required such as the 184, 173 and 160, Although they all then proceeded to be awarded with new with the new operator so I wonder if Arriva's bidding costs are just about enough where an existing bid barely makes the cheapest, resulting in any requirement for new pushing the cost over. Although with the 173 and 160 I do wonder if the 319s HVs were used on a rebid but then didn't work out. They do have the 313 coming up soon, that will be a test as no operator is likely required to factor new buses into a bid. 469 & B12 however are getting existing buses the current fleet that are on those routes could have been retained for another contract as they were upgraded to Euro 6 they could have kept ENX1-8 and scrapped ENL8-10, ENL77-79 that are still Euro 4. Overall I’m happy to see those routes get newer buses, those ENLs are dreadful to drive and still have Opening Emergency Exit Side door and back window and always breakdown. Soon to be a rare thing because most buses now have Break Glass hammers. Overall from reading above comments Arriva do need to get moving quickly with the Electric Buses I agree because Abellio London, Go Ahead London & Stagecoach are well ahead... The 319 is currently the only route due to recieve Electric Buses. Nothing wrong with having older fleet still in service however as when everything is newish it is still good to have some “Golden Oldies” still around. Overall as I can remember Arriva have generally always tried there best to make full use of fleet in London. Imagine if all the DLAs & DAF DW were replaced early with Enviro 400 & DB300 DW... Does anyone remember the last route to have bench seat DLAs? I believe it was the 415 although it was a mix of bench seat & non bench seat DLA’s by the end
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Post by TB123 on Dec 10, 2020 12:58:59 GMT
Does show how unlucky they have been with their fleet. The 492 and 229 were both the two routes in that group which had existing buses which seems to have helped them as a result. The 469 and B12 would have needed new buses. I'm not part of their bidding team so do not know, however I wonder if opting for new continuously seems to skew costs against their favour. A lot of their losses have been where new buses would have been required such as the 184, 173 and 160, Although they all then proceeded to be awarded with new with the new operator so I wonder if Arriva's bidding costs are just about enough where an existing bid barely makes the cheapest, resulting in any requirement for new pushing the cost over. Although with the 173 and 160 I do wonder if the 319s HVs were used on a rebid but then didn't work out. They do have the 313 coming up soon, that will be a test as no operator is likely required to factor new buses into a bid. The HVs from 319... be interesting where they go. 198, 264 & 368 are options as these are soon due new contracts... In addition no idea whats happening to ENX28-30 probably withdrawn with all the ENLs or sent to TH. Nooooo I don't want my beloved 264 getting those HVs! In all seriousness, will definitely be interesting to see where they end up. My money is the 125.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 10, 2020 12:59:13 GMT
Don't see why you have to keep picking on him. His suggestions have been vastly more reasonable and fact-based than yours. I also didn't realise it was so shameful to express one's thoughts, or have we merely transformed into a censored totalitarian state? Sorry, I WAS NOT PICKING ON HIM! Stop shouting!
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Post by TB123 on Dec 10, 2020 13:01:30 GMT
132, was won with Electrics some weeks ago. 57/213 expire in 2023 and the 131 in late 2022. 335, stagecoach have a chance too from Catford and Plumstead which are far closer to the route than Dartford. I, can see the 32 MHVs, possibly moving to AL/A/AF. The 57/85/213 will I suspect get new electrics as they come up for Tender in Summer 2023 and will RATP Win them along with the H91/H32 i n a nother mass Electric Order? I don’t see the MHV’s moving to AF as I also don’t see the E’s on the 337 being discarded until the end of the current contract. Once again, it is unclear if all MHV’s will leave PM as the 363 is officially allocated some of the new to the 63 examples alongside the EH’s and the 37 has two new to Q examples alongside its E’s I like the Es on the 337, they are in an excellent condition as with any Putney vehicle so it would be a shame to see those leave. I too, don't see the MHVs moving to Putney. My money is on them possibly going to Sutton for the 80s. Can't see them displacing older diesel deckers given everything now meets Euro 6 standards.
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Post by capitalomnibus on Dec 10, 2020 13:05:15 GMT
Today marks in excess of 6 months from the last award of TfL contract to operate a bus route. Even the 8th June was not a great day, only retaining 2 of the 5 incumbent routes. Does show how unlucky they have been with their fleet. The 492 and 229 were both the two routes in that group which had existing buses which seems to have helped them as a result. The 469 and B12 would have needed new buses. I'm not part of their bidding team so do not know, however I wonder if opting for new continuously seems to skew costs against their favour. A lot of their losses have been where new buses would have been required such as the 184, 173 and 160, Although they all then proceeded to be awarded with new with the new operator so I wonder if Arriva's bidding costs are just about enough where an existing bid barely makes the cheapest, resulting in any requirement for new pushing the cost over. Although with the 173 and 160 I do wonder if the 319s HVs were used on a rebid but then didn't work out. They do have the 313 coming up soon, that will be a test as no operator is likely required to factor new buses into a bid. The people that prepare the bids are well aware of the situation of the market changes etc. But are restricted with certain constraints.
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