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Post by southlondonbus on Jan 16, 2021 10:09:48 GMT
OK I made a suggestion that if a 4% cut to milage is needed that evening services on some suburban routes might be a good comprise (ie drop from every 15 to 20 mins). Maybe a slight exagertion about only 3 passengers on the 154 in the evening but a DD can carry 90 passengers so I'd be amazed if 3 bph (270 passengers) wasn't enough between 20.30 and the last bus.
Hard decisions will need to be made unfortunately and I just thought it may be better to make smaller reductions at quieter times then potentially removing entire central routes. Sorry
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Post by Deleted on Jan 16, 2021 10:10:08 GMT
All a bit weird why the 396 and Romford Rd are suddenly hot topics. Almost seems a bit of a wind up. Out of curiosity why would the 396 with its MASSIVE PVR OF 5 be cut ? Still every little helps I guess could very easily be replaced with a loop on the 296 or nothing at all to be honest just deck the 296 , I think a few of the smaller routes that could easily be gone will go just think the 48 which was quite a busy route went so anything is possible , I think the 414 will now get the chop as if they go ahead with the shortening of the route the 14 basically covers the whole route , I can also see a few other routes being cut completely with nothing major in terms of replacement , the way people travel now will change forever unfortunately I think as will the world we live in after covid I.e more working from home etc less demand , less supply. If you add a loop to the 296 I guess the PVR would increase by 1 or 2 so not much saving over the 396 being but. I would much rather see routes with high PVRs being reduced first. As I said yesterday once a route is but there really is no going back at least if frequency are cut they can be restored in time
Without starting the whole working from debate I will just say I do think we will see a return to offices OK maybe a reduction but not as bad as some fear. My place of work has had to stay home this lockdown and I am surprised how many people have come in given they had the option to wok from home. The reasons they give is it breaks the day up, more productive, better resources i.e. internet connection, less distractions.
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Post by greenboy on Jan 16, 2021 10:13:18 GMT
In the suburban areas I'd look more at the evening freqs. It's a much less 24h lifestyle then zones 1 and 2 and even pre Covid I'd see 154's with about 3 people on after 8pm and probably similar to routes like the 80, 127, 151 which could easily drop after 9pm to every 20 to 30 mins. In case anyone has forgotten we're in lockdown so obviously usage would be very sparse in the evenings. Eg 120 very busy during shopping hours very quiet after about 7 PM I'm sure everyone is well aware of the current situation but the point being made is that even before covid a lot of routes were very quiet in the evening, I suspect a lot of custom has been lost to uber etc. Some efficiencies could be made such as extending the 137 to Crystal Palace after about 20.00 replacing the 417 in line with the night service. |
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Post by LondonNorthern on Jan 16, 2021 10:14:34 GMT
I don't follow regarding the 396 - the changes are focused on Central London routes unless I'm missing something? All a bit weird why the 396 and Romford Rd are suddenly hot topics. Almost seems a bit of a wind up. Out of curiosity why would the 396 with its MASSIVE PVR OF 5 be cut ? The 396 could be a possibility to cuts and I'm not saying it should be - I wonder whether tfl may look at it. Possibly, you could divert it to Barking bringing new links along Aldborough Road South, and through Seven Kings. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 16, 2021 10:15:12 GMT
I wonder what new terminus the 388 will have in these next range of central London changes 
Joking aside I do wonder if the latest cuts could well see this route withdrawn?
I very well reckon so, it's sad this route and what a state of affairs it's become. The London Bridge reroute doesn't seem to have helped either, the 149 has shot up while the 388 has just plummeted so it's clear where the 48s users have all gone and the 388 is not where they are now. I wonder if we could see any involvement with the 26 as the obvious issue with a 388 withdrawal is the roads in Hackney that would be left unserved as the 388 is the only route which operates in the area around Victoria Park. Maybe it could be cut to Ash Grove, operating as an Ash Grove to Stratford route for the time being, and then maybe extended East of Stratford City if things ever improve. I made a suggestion a long time back about extending the 241 from the Stratford City end but actually thinking again I do wonder if this could be done. The route is really short and think it could manage a extension to Ash Grove especially if cut from the Canning Town end to Custom House or Silvertown. |
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Post by thesquirrels on Jan 16, 2021 10:16:09 GMT
Wouldn't be so sure that no routes will be entirely withdrawn. But it depends on what proposals go out to make the cut, if you'll pardon the pun. I expect this will go out to consultation in June or July. A lot of it depends on the Mayoral election. Unlikely we'll see any major changes take place this side of Christmas. Off the top of my head as regards possible further cuts  390 withdrawn Kings Cross - Victoria. 73 to replace the Victoria section, rest not replaced resulting in thinning of frequency Kings Cross - Oxford Circus. 68 withdrawn Holborn - Euston, 188 withdrawn Aldwych - Russell Square, 172 withdrawn Elephant - Aldwych. 87 withdrawn Trafalgar Square - Aldwych 15H withdrawn: possible replacement with the Red Routemaster ‘Service H’, but that’s outside remit of this thread. 21 withdrawn Moorgate - Newington Green, leaving this section solely to the 141. 38 further thinned in frequency. Possible cut to 29 withdrawing part of the far southern section, leaving Charing Cross Road’s southern section to the 24 and 176. Rationalisation of the Victoria - Buckingham Palace Road corridor. Possible removal of the 211, with section west of Fulham Broadway replaced and rest not. I also see the section of the C1 between Sloane Square and Victoria as vulnerable. If 211 cut, that perhaps sees a possibility of putting the 53 in the 211 terminal and cutting a southern service (159?) back to Lambeth North. And I am not saying any of the above is good! I see sense in the 29 move for now, but once the West End picks up again (even modestly) the 24 will struggle so would need a frequency increase, leading to an oversupply at the extremities outweighing any efficiency achieved with the extra 2-3 pvr saved south of TCR by cutting the 29.. best just left as it is - it is quite a PVR-efficient setup now the 24 has been hacked back. Soho, Chinatown and Govent Garden were showing signs of getting busy again late summer/into the autumn and there were plenty of 'domestic' leisure journeys into London.. I think the return of some semblance of normal business there will not be too protracted. Agree fully re further thinning of 38. Old Street, being much more heavily reliant on a workforce that has now tasted the blood of WFH, and a 'young' night-time industry that will struggle to be woken from its induced coma, will recover more slowly and is ripe for heavier cuts. Would stop short of cutting the 21 at Moorgate, perhaps Old Street as there is still plenty of commercial activity there now that wasn't in place when the 21 was extended north to begin with. |
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Post by ronnie on Jan 16, 2021 10:19:00 GMT
Still every little helps I guess could very easily be replaced with a loop on the 296 or nothing at all to be honest just deck the 296 , I think a few of the smaller routes that could easily be gone will go just think the 48 which was quite a busy route went so anything is possible , I think the 414 will now get the chop as if they go ahead with the shortening of the route the 14 basically covers the whole route , I can also see a few other routes being cut completely with nothing major in terms of replacement , the way people travel now will change forever unfortunately I think as will the world we live in after covid I.e more working from home etc less demand , less supply. If you add a loop to the 296 I guess the PVR would increase by 1 or 2 so not much saving over the 396 being but. I would much rather see routes with high PVRs being reduced first. As I said yesterday once a route is but there really is no going back at least if frequency are cut they can be restored in time
Without starting the whole working from debate I will just say I do think we will see a return to offices OK maybe a reduction but not as bad as some fear. My place of work has had to stay home this lockdown and I am surprised how many people have come in given they had the option to wok from home. The reasons they give is it breaks the day up, more productive, better resources i.e. internet connection, less distractions.
I have been working from home since March last year (same as other team members). My boss will go back tomorrow to office if he is allowed (he is a bit old school). While there was a lot of good things being said about work from home initially right till the virtual Christmas lunch, I can now sense a bit of wfh fatigue. We havnt met the new joiners in person, a lot of the younger people live alone so they are really bored so miss the office camaraderie. Plus you need to meet other people for idea generation We have a toddler and are able to function normally as nurseries are open. Our efficiency will fall off the charts if nurseries close! So yes people will get back to office. Maybe not all 5 days a week but 3-4 days in office 1-2 days at home will become the norm. And hence I am positive about bus usage but near term is very tough till we get vaccinated |
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Post by SILENCED on Jan 16, 2021 10:31:14 GMT
Wouldn't be so sure that no routes will be entirely withdrawn. But it depends on what proposals go out to make the cut, if you'll pardon the pun. I expect this will go out to consultation in June or July. A lot of it depends on the Mayoral election. Unlikely we'll see any major changes take place this side of Christmas. Off the top of my head as regards possible further cuts 390 withdrawn Kings Cross - Victoria. 73 to replace the Victoria section, rest not replaced resulting in thinning of frequency Kings Cross - Oxford Circus. 68 withdrawn Holborn - Euston, 188 withdrawn Aldwych - Russell Square, 172 withdrawn Elephant - Aldwych. 87 withdrawn Trafalgar Square - Aldwych 15H withdrawn: possible replacement with the Red Routemaster ‘Service H’, but that’s outside remit of this thread. 21 withdrawn Moorgate - Newington Green, leaving this section solely to the 141. 38 further thinned in frequency. Possible cut to 29 withdrawing part of the far southern section, leaving Charing Cross Road’s southern section to the 24 and 176. Rationalisation of the Victoria - Buckingham Palace Road corridor. Possible removal of the 211, with section west of Fulham Broadway replaced and rest not. I also see the section of the C1 between Sloane Square and Victoria as vulnerable. If 211 cut, that perhaps sees a possibility of putting the 53 in the 211 terminal and cutting a southern service (159?) back to Lambeth North. And I am not saying any of the above is good! As they mentioned cutting frequencies on Central London route to 6 bph on 25 routes, let just look at the savings that could be made, according to my rough calculations, if frequencies were reduced, without any trucations. 21 to 6 bph would save about 9 buses 38 to 6 bph would save about 22 buses 68 to 6 bph would save about 5 buses. 87 to 6 bph would save about 8 buses. 172 already 6 bph, no saving 188 6 bph would save about 5 buses 211 already 6 bph, no saving 390 6 bph would save about 12 buses |
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Post by wirewiper on Jan 16, 2021 10:51:21 GMT
OK I made a suggestion that if a 4% cut to milage is needed that evening services on some suburban routes might be a good comprise (ie drop from every 15 to 20 mins). Maybe a slight exagertion about only 3 passengers on the 154 in the evening but a DD can carry 90 passengers so I'd be amazed if 3 bph (270 passengers) wasn't enough between 20.30 and the last bus. Hard decisions will need to be made unfortunately and I just thought it may be better to make smaller reductions at quieter times then potentially removing entire central routes. Sorry Bear in mind that the proposed 4% cut in mileage is not intended to be across the board. There will be an element of moving resources from Central London to the suburbs and some routes there might actually enjoy an increase in capacity. I'm expecting passenger numbers to recover better in the suburbs as people have got used to shopping locally, and the trend of growing night-time economies in suburban centres will resume. |
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Post by southlondonbus on Jan 16, 2021 10:55:33 GMT
Route 19 could probably drop to every 10 mins aswell saving 4 to 5 buses.
Will be interesting to see if over the next few months we see more TBC tender awards. For example enough reductions would complete the 176 to LTs freeing up buses for the Sutton area in time.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 16, 2021 11:15:50 GMT
Route 19 could probably drop to every 10 mins aswell saving 4 to 5 buses. Will be interesting to see if over the next few months we see more TBC tender awards. For example enough reductions would complete the 176 to LTs freeing up buses for the Sutton area in time. Likewise any reductions on the 21/87/453 could also free LTs to convert the 36 or 171 with frequency reductions which in turn could free buses for the Sutton routes. With enough EH and MHV from the 63 free they could only need to convert the 93 to full electric, as they would also have the 7 WHV already at A. |
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Post by TB123 on Jan 16, 2021 12:01:38 GMT
Route 19 could probably drop to every 10 mins aswell saving 4 to 5 buses. Will be interesting to see if over the next few months we see more TBC tender awards. For example enough reductions would complete the 176 to LTs freeing up buses for the Sutton area in time. Likewise any reductions on the 21/87/453 could also free LTs to convert the 36 or 171 with frequency reductions which in turn could free buses for the Sutton routes. With enough EH and MHV from the 63 free they could only need to convert the 93 to full electric, as they would also have the 7 WHV already at A. 36 can't take LTs unfortunately |
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Post by danorak on Jan 16, 2021 12:13:53 GMT
I wonder if the 148 not being awarded yet might be relevant. Always seems to be a useful and successful service but large parts are paralleled by other routes.
Bear in mind the following is entirely off the top of my head and I really haven't thought it through!
45 - extended from Elephant to Victoria via 148
53 - withdrawn Elephant to County Hall (boo, hiss, etc)
94 - withdrawn east of Marble Arch and diverted via 148 to Victoria, 507 to Waterloo
211 - rerouted between Victoria and Waterloo via 507
507 - withdrawn
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Post by Deleted on Jan 16, 2021 12:17:59 GMT
Likewise any reductions on the 21/87/453 could also free LTs to convert the 36 or 171 with frequency reductions which in turn could free buses for the Sutton routes. With enough EH and MHV from the 63 free they could only need to convert the 93 to full electric, as they would also have the 7 WHV already at A. 36 can't take LTs unfortunately I didn’t know that, I’m sure there would be another route in the empire that could take LTs, maybe the 5, 35, 155 or 188. Maybe even the 57 if TfL want capacity increases in the suburbs, although the left hand turn from Mitcham Road to Tooting High Street and the left hand turn from Galsworthy Road to Coombe Lane West might both prove problematic for LTs. |
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Post by greenboy on Jan 16, 2021 12:29:39 GMT
36 can't take LTs unfortunately I didn’t know that, I’m sure there would be another route in the empire that could take LTs, maybe the 5, 35, 155 or 188. Maybe even the 57 if TfL want capacity increases in the suburbs, although the left hand turn from Mitcham Road to Tooting High Street and the left hand turn from Galsworthy Road to Coombe Lane West might both prove problematic for LTs. The Queens Park section of the 36 would be unsuitable for LTs but the 436 should be ok. |
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