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Post by LondonNorthern on Apr 14, 2021 19:54:01 GMT
I do wonder why the 25 was dropped as much as it was from an every 3 minute or whatever it was service to every 7 minute service. To me it was really interesting behind TFLs justification that demand would increase that much to the point where the service would be halved on the 25 when there is already the option for those who use the 25 between Ilford and Stratford to feed into Stratford or for those round Bow Church to feed into Mile End. I would have been one to have said anyone who was currently having the intention of using the train into Liverpool Street would have already done so for years whereas those who use the 25 into town likely have a reason to. I know Stratford and Mile End are rather large feeder stations but I wouldn't expect all the 25 crowds into the City move onto Crossrail when those who wanted to use the Central Line would have got on at Mile End or Stratford. If there's one route that doesn't decrease in demand when it ran to town, it is the 25.
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Post by Eastlondoner62 on Apr 14, 2021 21:10:12 GMT
I do wonder why the 25 was dropped as much as it was from an every 3 minute or whatever it was service to every 7 minute service. To me it was really interesting behind TFLs justification that demand would increase that much to the point where the service would be halved on the 25 when there is already the option for those who use the 25 between Ilford and Stratford to feed into Stratford or for those round Bow Church to feed into Mile End. I would have been one to have said anyone who was currently having the intention of using the train into Liverpool Street would have already done so for years whereas those who use the 25 into town likely have a reason to. I know Stratford and Mile End are rather large feeder stations but I wouldn't expect all the 25 crowds into the City move onto Crossrail when those who wanted to use the Central Line would have got on at Mile End or Stratford. If there's one route that doesn't decrease in demand when it ran to town, it is the 25. The decreases were certainly quite well formulated through the years, the frequency effectively got halved to every 6 minutes when the 425 was extended which them led to a silent drop to every 7-8 instead. I think their view is that Romford Road still has the 86 running every 6 minutes and the 425 at every 10 minutes so chances are a bus still comes every few minutes and 6 minutes is the biggest gap someone should face in theory, and in most cases it's likely to be lower. |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 14, 2021 21:28:37 GMT
No. It's still quite busy enough thanks.
I know and I would be absolutely against it though I was only asking if it could be a possibility they would look at it.
Every route is a possibility. This is a comprehensive review of the Inner London bus network and unfortunately no route is completely safe. |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 18, 2021 8:00:06 GMT
Some patience by TfL would be prudent before making any decisions. Post covid is going to be potentially quite different.
When you want people to return to public transport it needs to be there and attractive. Not reduced and remaining buses packed.
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Post by wirewiper on Apr 18, 2021 8:02:13 GMT
Some patience by TfL would be prudent before making any decisions. Post covid is going to be potentially quite different. When you want people to return to public transport it needs to be there and attractive. Not reduced and remaining buses packed. In that case, lobby the Government so that TfL has the secure longer-term funding in place to support that. Current funding is only agreed to 18th May. |
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Post by ianhardy on Apr 18, 2021 18:28:45 GMT
Some patience by TfL would be prudent before making any decisions. Post covid is going to be potentially quite different. When you want people to return to public transport it needs to be there and attractive. Not reduced and remaining buses packed. In that case, lobby the Government so that TfL has the secure longer-term funding in place to support that. Current funding is only agreed to 18th May. Don't forget what is happening on 6th May, depending on the outcome of the mayoral election, the ongoing funding for TfL may go in different ways depending who wins.
If the current incumbent is successful for a further term don't expect the Government to splash out the cash, however if the result goes a different way, the Government may be more willing to give TfL a longer-term settlement and bail it out of the funding crisis caused in part by the current incumbent's policies? |
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Post by vjaska on Apr 18, 2021 19:21:30 GMT
In that case, lobby the Government so that TfL has the secure longer-term funding in place to support that. Current funding is only agreed to 18th May. Don't forget what is happening on 6th May, depending on the outcome of the mayoral election, the ongoing funding for TfL may go in different ways depending who wins. If the current incumbent is successful for a further term don't expect the Government to splash out the cash, however if the result goes a different way, the Government may be more willing to give TfL a longer-term settlement and bail it out of the funding crisis caused in part by the current incumbent's policies? I'm not so sure it will work out how you describe - polls suggest Bailey has more chance of taking over at relegated Sheffield United than winning the mayoral election so we can remove the "depending who wins" part and then there is the reports that Bailey is that the Tories have already abandoned Bailey due to a perceived laziness & ability to actually gather momentum for his campaign. I mean, the Tories have effectively stepped away from London entirely judging by recent election results in the capital and quotes from the government distancing themselves from London and effectively, punishing us for their own mistakes of not investing in the North a lot sooner. |
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Post by southlondonbus on Apr 18, 2021 19:52:37 GMT
Don't forget what is happening on 6th May, depending on the outcome of the mayoral election, the ongoing funding for TfL may go in different ways depending who wins. If the current incumbent is successful for a further term don't expect the Government to splash out the cash, however if the result goes a different way, the Government may be more willing to give TfL a longer-term settlement and bail it out of the funding crisis caused in part by the current incumbent's policies? I'm not so sure it will work out how you describe - polls suggest Bailey has more chance of taking over at relegated Sheffield United than winning the mayoral election so we can remove the "depending who wins" part and then there is the reports that Bailey is that the Tories have already abandoned Bailey due to a perceived laziness & ability to actually gather momentum for his campaign. I mean, the Tories have effectively stepped away from London entirely judging by recent election results in the capital and quotes from the government distancing themselves from London and effectively, punishing us for their own mistakes of not investing in the North a lot sooner. I could imagine the Conservatives would be more likely to accept defeat before hand but try to remove powers from the Mayor starting with tfl coming back under the transport secretary. |
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Post by redbus on Apr 18, 2021 20:44:38 GMT
I'm not so sure it will work out how you describe - polls suggest Bailey has more chance of taking over at relegated Sheffield United than winning the mayoral election so we can remove the "depending who wins" part and then there is the reports that Bailey is that the Tories have already abandoned Bailey due to a perceived laziness & ability to actually gather momentum for his campaign. I mean, the Tories have effectively stepped away from London entirely judging by recent election results in the capital and quotes from the government distancing themselves from London and effectively, punishing us for their own mistakes of not investing in the North a lot sooner. I could imagine the Conservatives would be more likely to accept defeat before hand but try to remove powers from the Mayor starting with tfl coming back under the transport secretary. The relationship between the Government and Khan seems pretty toxic and if Khan wins again as seems likely, then I agree that the Government won't bail out TfL. The Government will set the financial picture, but it will be up to Khan assuming he wins whether he wants more cuts or tries to increase revenue. Either way the Government can blame Khan as it will be his decision. In my opinion Khan was extremely foolish in offering up a 4% bus mileage cut to save money, but if nothing else it shows how little he prioritises the bus service. Services should have been looked at in the last year and temporarily reduced where there was excess capacity with a view to returning to a full service as the economy opens up (ie now). That would have saved some money. As the economy opens it is important to provide that full service to encourage people back onto public transport. Public transport must be attractive to use, many will be scared to come back onto the bus and tube and this is because both the Mayor and Government have gone out of their way to scare people. This needs to be reversed and along with attractive public transport is the only real way to prevent a car led recovery. Walking and cycle lanes simply won't cut it. For these reasons I see these bus cuts as being disastrous. No one yet knows how many will go back to the tube and bus. Give it time, see what happens, and only if passenger number fail to recover over time does one then look at service cuts. If Bailey against the odds were to win, whatever the government may think of him, he is of the same party and will have beaten Khan so metaphorically speaking they won't want to throw him under a bus! So if he were to win I think the financial picture might be more generous, partly because he also will do other things the Government might like. |
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Post by Eastlondoner62 on Apr 18, 2021 20:58:28 GMT
I could imagine the Conservatives would be more likely to accept defeat before hand but try to remove powers from the Mayor starting with tfl coming back under the transport secretary. The relationship between the Government and Khan seems pretty toxic and if Khan wins again as seems likely, then I agree that the Government won't bail out TfL. The Government will set the financial picture, but it will be up to Khan assuming he wins whether he wants more cuts or tries to increase revenue. Either way the Government can blame Khan as it will be his decision. In my opinion Khan was extremely foolish in offering up a 4% bus mileage cut to save money, but if nothing else it shows how little he prioritises the bus service. Services should have been looked at in the last year and temporarily reduced where there was excess capacity with a view to returning to a full service as the economy opens up (ie now). That would have saved some money. As the economy opens it is important to provide that full service to encourage people back onto public transport. Public transport must be attractive to use, many will be scared to come back onto the bus and tube and this is because both the Mayor and Government have gone out of their way to scare people. This needs to be reversed and along with attractive public transport is the only real way to prevent a car led recovery. Walking and cycle lanes simply won't cut it. For these reasons I see these bus cuts as being disastrous. No one yet knows how many will go back to the tube and bus. Give it time, see what happens, and only if passenger number fail to recover over time does one then look at service cuts. If Bailey against the odds were to win, whatever the government may think of him, he is of the same party and will have beaten Khan so metaphorically speaking they won't want to throw him under a bus! So if he were to win I think the financial picture might be more generous, partly because he also will do other things the Government might like. Exactly this, nobody knows where exactly routes are going to suffer post pandemic and which ones will boom in usage. I wouldn't be surprised to see a route like the 15 suffer heavily for a period after this due to tourism downfall, while I don't think the reducing something like the 25 would be a wise idea as this route caters for a lot of blue collar workers which won't have working patterns altered as a result. There's a split view over the return to the office, some people believe it won't happen while some people believe it will. Nobody here is right o wrong because none of us know how the future will go, while offices may be downsized, extra space in the buildings could lead to more companies setting up and in total offering similar employment numbers throughout the week which will mean bus travel may eventually pick up. TfL generally haven't got something hopelessly wrong, the only recent example I can think of is the 384, and if we go back to the Central London cuts I'd say the 25, 53 and 171 were the only ones out of the many proposed which majorly inconvenienced a large number of people at once. TfL may again just have the data available to make such a decision, no matter how bad their financial situation is now, they've probably got extremely clever statisticians working with the data they have available (of which in many cases is down to exactly the number of people which board at each stop) to determine where any cuts may be. These have probably already been drafted up, and Purdah may be an opportunity for the company as a whole to really knuckle down and thoroughly analyse these changes while they don't need to worry about making any public announcements. I'm not sure what the planning mode in TfL is like at the moment, whether they plan for an all case scenario or plan depending on mayoral polls. But I can see Khan's future plans being proceeded with for now in a realistic fashion unless there's a huge downturn at the polls over the next couple of weeks. We're only three weeks from the election now, following this we should probably hear of the cuts before the summer is out. There might even be a case where the hope that people are away on holidays might soften the blow. I wouldn't even be surprised to see the consultation drop just before the August bank holiday or around that time when the most people are likely to be away from work, and as a result are unlikely to discuss commutes. I remember very well the last consultation came when I was abroad sweltering in the heat of the Indian Subcontinent and then thinking my eyes were playing tricks on me as I read all the proposals. |
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Post by southlondonbus on Apr 18, 2021 21:09:37 GMT
Khan pretty much walked into an own goal with TFL with the pedestrianisation of Oxford Street giving TFL the perfect excuse to cut the 10 and 13 entirely plus the amendments to the 23/73 etc and even the 94 still.
The same could happen with Threadneedle Street with the 8, 11, 26 and 133 replacing routes on other streets now.
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Post by LondonNorthern on Apr 18, 2021 21:22:56 GMT
Khan pretty much walked into an own goal with TFL with the pedestrianisation of Oxford Street giving TFL the perfect excuse to cut the 10 and 13 entirely plus the amendments to the 23/73 etc and even the 94 still. The same could happen with Threadneedle Street with the 8, 11, 26 and 133 replacing routes on other streets now. I have come to the conclusion that all these LTNs are just money generators whilst these pedestrianisation schemes are simply here to help TFL save money |
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Post by southlondonbus on Apr 18, 2021 21:25:22 GMT
Ultimately the 8 will provide the a link the Cornhill/Leadenhall Street to City Thameslink and thus the 25 can be cut to Aldgate with the 343 back to Tower Gateway to make room. This way TFL will claim a more reliable service on the 8 and 25.
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Post by LondonNorthern on Apr 18, 2021 21:38:32 GMT
Ultermately the 8 will provide the a link the Cornhill/Leadenhall Street to City Thameslink and thus the 25 can be cut to Aldgate with the 343 back to Tower Gateway to make room. This way TFL will claim a more reliable service on the 8 and 25. I wouldn't be too surprised if Bank had something to do with this scheme. Meet their objective whilst impress their voters |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 18, 2021 21:41:18 GMT
Ultermately the 8 will provide the a link the Cornhill/Leadenhall Street to City Thameslink and thus the 25 can be cut to Aldgate with the 343 back to Tower Gateway to make room. This way TFL will claim a more reliable service on the 8 and 25. The 8 can barely cope with loadings now let alone taking on from Liverpool Street towards City Thameslink! The 25 still carries decent loads from Aldgate to City Thameslink (pre covid observations). Also don't forget the route is used a lot by low paid workers travelling into the city. |
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