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Post by ThinLizzy on Aug 13, 2024 15:46:24 GMT
How long will they last realistically ? bar the school routes and shopping hour specials they only have two "main" routes (84 & 306) , no good paying income anymore from Tfl for Rail Replacement work , I can't see them lasting long unfortunately , definitely don't need all those buses would be a handy good little take over for a Vectare type company , but even then isit sustainable ? If Sullivan ever did choose to close their non-TFL operations too - who might be able to take over those routes? Arriva and Metroline themselves chose to stop operating them before Sullivan took over (though the 306 having a different number at Arriva). Maybe Uno? Not sure how busy the 84 gets, but the 306 doesn't seem to need DDs, so does perhaps seem a waste of those ex-217 MMCs. Probably a mixture of local operators and Arriva.
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Post by wirewiper on Aug 13, 2024 15:46:26 GMT
How long will they last realistically ? bar the school routes and shopping hour specials they only have two "main" routes (84 & 306) , no good paying income anymore from Tfl for Rail Replacement work , I can't see them lasting long unfortunately , definitely don't need all those buses would be a handy good little take over for a Vectare type company , but even then isit sustainable ? I said similar recently and give them maybe 6 months before they end up closing / selling up. Does anyone know why all Sullivan routes are not part of the £2 bus fare scheme? The £2 scheme wasn't obligatory, and a number of smaller operators chose not to particpate as they weren't convinced about the arrangements for reimbursing the lost income. Sullivan Buses also cited the fact that much of their customer base is students travelling on student passes, and having these passengers pay £2 single every time they boarded the bus instead would delay services unacceptably.
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Post by vjaska on Aug 13, 2024 16:06:12 GMT
How long will they last realistically ? bar the school routes and shopping hour specials they only have two "main" routes (84 & 306) , no good paying income anymore from Tfl for Rail Replacement work , I can't see them lasting long unfortunately , definitely don't need all those buses would be a handy good little take over for a Vectare type company , but even then isit sustainable ? Unconfirmed reports suggests the Geminis may be replaced by some of the ex TfL stock. As well as the two MMC's reported, apparently, one of the ex First non MMC Enviro 400's is now also in the provincial fleet. Not sure where the idea of them not lasting long is coming from - the 84 has been a success for them from what I've heard and been told by others. The TfL side and provincial have had differing fortunes so don't think it's fari to lump the two in together.
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Post by WH241 on Aug 13, 2024 16:15:45 GMT
How long will they last realistically ? bar the school routes and shopping hour specials they only have two "main" routes (84 & 306) , no good paying income anymore from Tfl for Rail Replacement work , I can't see them lasting long unfortunately , definitely don't need all those buses would be a handy good little take over for a Vectare type company , but even then isit sustainable ? Unconfirmed reports suggests the Geminis may be replaced by some of the ex TfL stock. As well as the two MMC's reported, apparently, one of the ex First non MMC Enviro 400's is now also in the provincial fleet. Not sure where the idea of them not lasting long is coming from - the 84 has been a success for them from what I've heard and been told by others. The TfL side and provincial have had differing fortunes so don't think it's fari to lump the two in together. I doubt one successful route is really going to keep a company going. It might be successful compared to the previous operation but doubt it’s really bring in a huge amount of money! All those newish MMC buses need to still be paid for without any income from TfL and Rail Replacement (Imagine this was very profitable). You then have staff wages, fuel costs and other outgoings! I really doubt the 84 is going to save a company.
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Post by TB123 on Aug 13, 2024 16:31:20 GMT
Unconfirmed reports suggests the Geminis may be replaced by some of the ex TfL stock. As well as the two MMC's reported, apparently, one of the ex First non MMC Enviro 400's is now also in the provincial fleet. Not sure where the idea of them not lasting long is coming from - the 84 has been a success for them from what I've heard and been told by others. The TfL side and provincial have had differing fortunes so don't think it's fari to lump the two in together. I doubt one successful route is really going to keep a company going. It might be successful compared to the previous operation but doubt it’s really bring in a huge amount of money! All those newish MMC buses need to still be paid for without any income from TfL and Rail Replacement (Imagine this was very profitable). You then have staff wages, fuel costs and other outgoings! I really doubt the 84 is going to save a company. Many provincial operations/depots rely off a single profitable route. I daren't say the 306s also make a good contribution. As long as they keep overheads sustainable, which they clearly have with the consolidaiton into North Myms, I don't see why they won't continue with Herts service and be a success in doing so. We've had BSIP money in the last couple of years for some home counties, Herts being one, and the new Better Buses Bill from the Labour government will no doubt continue this trajectory in some form. There's plenty of opportunities to develop services, especially with upcoming reforms to Green Belt likely meaning a lot more new homes being built (needing new buses, paid for by developers....) in Sullivan's operating patch. The fact they are moving Euro6 buses that are fairly modern onto the Herts work also bodes well, hopefully they will be smartened up as well.
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Post by matthieu1221 on Aug 13, 2024 16:34:56 GMT
I doubt one successful route is really going to keep a company going. It might be successful compared to the previous operation but doubt it’s really bring in a huge amount of money! All those newish MMC buses need to still be paid for without any income from TfL and Rail Replacement (Imagine this was very profitable). You then have staff wages, fuel costs and other outgoings! I really doubt the 84 is going to save a company. Many provincial operations/depots rely off a single profitable route. I daren't say the 306s also make a good contribution. As long as they keep overheads sustainable, which they clearly have with the consolidaiton into North Myms, I don't see why they won't continue with Herts service and be a success in doing so. We've had BSIP money in the last couple of years for some home counties, Herts being one, and the new Better Buses Bill from the Labour government will no doubt continue this trajectory in some form. There's plenty of opportunities to develop services, especially with upcoming reforms to Green Belt likely meaning a lot more new homes being built (needing new buses, paid for by developers....) in Sullivan's operating patch. The fact they are moving Euro6 buses that are fairly modern onto the Herts work also bodes well, hopefully they will be smartened up as well. They do certainly seem to be 'lucky' enough that the opportunity to run the 84 presented itself when Metroline gave up.
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Post by TB123 on Aug 13, 2024 16:38:13 GMT
Many provincial operations/depots rely off a single profitable route. I daren't say the 306s also make a good contribution. As long as they keep overheads sustainable, which they clearly have with the consolidaiton into North Myms, I don't see why they won't continue with Herts service and be a success in doing so. We've had BSIP money in the last couple of years for some home counties, Herts being one, and the new Better Buses Bill from the Labour government will no doubt continue this trajectory in some form. There's plenty of opportunities to develop services, especially with upcoming reforms to Green Belt likely meaning a lot more new homes being built (needing new buses, paid for by developers....) in Sullivan's operating patch. The fact they are moving Euro6 buses that are fairly modern onto the Herts work also bodes well, hopefully they will be smartened up as well. They do certainly seem to be 'lucky' enough that the opportunity to run the 84 presented itself when Metroline gave up. Yes, although they did seem to have quite a number of issues with cancellations on it a while back. Hopefully, now they have a more streamlined portfolio there will be less excuses/reasons for this to happen.
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Post by ServerKing on Aug 13, 2024 16:47:34 GMT
How long will they last realistically ? bar the school routes and shopping hour specials they only have two "main" routes (84 & 306) , no good paying income anymore from Tfl for Rail Replacement work , I can't see them lasting long unfortunately , definitely don't need all those buses would be a handy good little take over for a Vectare type company , but even then isit sustainable ? They are operating in areas of high car usage, and I am sure they can read in Hertfordshire and no doubt know how Sullivan threw TfL under the bus... if they are already in dire straits and playing musical chairs with assets and O Licences (and staff), I can't see it lasting for long. It's not to wish them ill, but if the bigger players withdraw from non profitable routes, I can't see many old people being tempted out of their Honda Jazz or Nissan Notes to ride on what is very clearly a London bus with Roundels scrubbed out to go on a Shopping Special to Borehamwood. Especially if the service becomes as hit and miss as it did in London. I guess Vectare could step in if it were profitable enough. Metroline may be more keen to concentrate on the Bee Network contracts and sorting out more VMHs and hybrids to send north, rather than messing around with any low profit routes. I can't see Arriva Ware / Harlow bothering either. Sullivans are doing well to put the MMCs to use. Paint them into green and refresh the stock. Any single deck MMCs / Streetlites not needed could be sold.
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Post by ThinLizzy on Aug 13, 2024 17:14:02 GMT
How long will they last realistically ? bar the school routes and shopping hour specials they only have two "main" routes (84 & 306) , no good paying income anymore from Tfl for Rail Replacement work , I can't see them lasting long unfortunately , definitely don't need all those buses would be a handy good little take over for a Vectare type company , but even then isit sustainable ? Unconfirmed reports suggests the Geminis may be replaced by some of the ex TfL stock. As well as the two MMC's reported, apparently, one of the ex First non MMC Enviro 400's is now also in the provincial fleet. Not sure where the idea of them not lasting long is coming from - the 84 has been a success for them from what I've heard and been told by others. The TfL side and provincial have had differing fortunes so don't think it's fari to lump the two in together. Sullivans also make a good amount of money from TV and Private Hire work. I guess now they have shelved the TfL "weight" around their neck they can refocus the business into more manageable income streams. There used to be quite a few companies based at South Mimms (Trustline, Kellys Coaches and smaller coach company who's name I forget,) perhaps Sullivans could exploit a good Private Hire market.
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Post by southlondonbus on Aug 13, 2024 17:28:17 GMT
How long will they last realistically ? bar the school routes and shopping hour specials they only have two "main" routes (84 & 306) , no good paying income anymore from Tfl for Rail Replacement work , I can't see them lasting long unfortunately , definitely don't need all those buses would be a handy good little take over for a Vectare type company , but even then isit sustainable ? Unconfirmed reports suggests the Geminis may be replaced by some of the ex TfL stock. As well as the two MMC's reported, apparently, one of the ex First non MMC Enviro 400's is now also in the provincial fleet. Not sure where the idea of them not lasting long is coming from - the 84 has been a success for them from what I've heard and been told by others. The TfL side and provincial have had differing fortunes so don't think it's fari to lump the two in together. The MMCs by standards outside of London are pretty young still really so I can see them staying for many years still.
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Post by ServerKing on Aug 13, 2024 18:59:16 GMT
Guys, let's put this one to bed now, we all have our views (either from experuence through use of their former TfL services, or the current provincial work) on how Sullivans fared or how things will pan out in future, it's better if we can just glean information regarding buses / services from each operator than taking lumps out of each other. Back in the day, RM5chris would pounce on stuff like this like a Camden traffic warden on a car on a double yellow line, but it seems the mods are't tracking like the 299 Let's see how the novated routes do with their new owners, and how Sullivan do to gain more work in the provincial market. Perhaps in time this could be moved to "other UK operators" as it seems unlikely the firm will return to TfL work at present
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Post by busoccultation on Aug 13, 2024 19:15:27 GMT
If Sullivan ever did choose to close their non-TFL operations too - who might be able to take over those routes? Arriva and Metroline themselves chose to stop operating them before Sullivan took over (though the 306 having a different number at Arriva). Maybe Uno? Not sure how busy the 84 gets, but the 306 doesn't seem to need DDs, so does perhaps seem a waste of those ex-217 MMCs. Probably a mixture of local operators and Arriva. I wouldn't be suprised if the ''Red Group'' inderpendents (Red Rose, Red Line and Red Eagle) would try and get one of those services if that does happen as they are known for taking over smaller routes and competing with big operators like Arriva.
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Post by ServerKing on Aug 14, 2024 4:37:32 GMT
Probably a mixture of local operators and Arriva. I wouldn't be suprised if the ''Red Group'' inderpendents (Red Rose, Red Line and Red Eagle) would try and get one of those services if that does happen as they are known for taking over smaller routes and competing with big operators like Arriva. I didn't think of that, depends how close their garages are and if the route is worth running. The 306 has looked a little empty when I've seen them round and about Watford. Redline and Red Rose are in Aylesbury, which is a heck of a dead run to be running about an area with high car use. RedRoute are even further away in Kent, so it looks like Sullivans won't face any competition, and can keep all the oxygen to themselves in the daytime Perhaps there's a perk with the county council. Doesn't seem sustainable. To me, it's like using a Mercedes S Class for casual work with Uber Eats or Evri
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Post by ADH45258 on Aug 14, 2024 9:24:58 GMT
I wouldn't be suprised if the ''Red Group'' inderpendents (Red Rose, Red Line and Red Eagle) would try and get one of those services if that does happen as they are known for taking over smaller routes and competing with big operators like Arriva. I didn't think of that, depends how close their garages are and if the route is worth running. The 306 has looked a little empty when I've seen them round and about Watford. Redline and Red Rose are in Aylesbury, which is a heck of a dead run to be running about an area with high car use. RedRoute are even further away in Kent, so it looks like Sullivans won't face any competition, and can keep all the oxygen to themselves in the daytime Perhaps there's a perk with the county council. Doesn't seem sustainable. To me, it's like using a Mercedes S Class for casual work with Uber Eats or Evri The Red Group operators are far away in Aylesbury, but they do run a number of routes in the Watford area (possibly St Albans too) - including the 328 which Arriva recently gave up. My guess is Uno might be a contender, Hatfield is not too far from Borehamwood, Potters Bar etc - though Uno are mostly interested in routes which directly serve Hatfield. Certainly in the Watford area, there is no well located garage anymore since GR has gone (which stopped running non-TFL routes a few years before the closure). I think the 306 is generally quite empty as it is partly paralled by TFL routes for shorter journeys - including the 107 between Elstree and Borehamwood. Between Watford and Bushey, the 306 does serve a different route around the backstreets, but some passengers may prefer to walk to the main road for the more frequent (and cheaper) 142/258. The 306 is certainly needed, but probably never requires the capacity of DDs, single door E200s can sometimes be empty. Not sure how busy the 84/398 get, but I wonder how much need there is for the ex-217 MMCs on these routes.
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Post by wirewiper on Aug 14, 2024 9:32:18 GMT
I didn't think of that, depends how close their garages are and if the route is worth running. The 306 has looked a little empty when I've seen them round and about Watford. Redline and Red Rose are in Aylesbury, which is a heck of a dead run to be running about an area with high car use. RedRoute are even further away in Kent, so it looks like Sullivans won't face any competition, and can keep all the oxygen to themselves in the daytime Perhaps there's a perk with the county council. Doesn't seem sustainable. To me, it's like using a Mercedes S Class for casual work with Uber Eats or Evri The Red Group operators are far away in Aylesbury, but they do run a number of routes in the Watford area (possibly St Albans too) - including the 328 which Arriva recently gave up. My guess is Uno might be a contender, Hatfield is not too far from Borehamwood, Potters Bar etc - though Uno are mostly interested in routes which directly serve Hatfield. Certainly in the Watford area, there is no well located garage anymore since GR has gone (which stopped running non-TFL routes a few years before the closure). I think the 306 is generally quite empty as it is partly paralled by TFL routes for shorter journeys - including the 107 between Elstree and Borehamwood. Between Watford and Bushey, the 306 does serve a different route around the backstreets, but some passengers may prefer to walk to the main road for the more frequent (and cheaper) 142/258. The 306 is certainly needed, but probably never requires the capacity of DDs, single door E200s can sometimes be empty. Not sure how busy the 84/398 get, but I wonder how much need there is for the ex-217 MMCs on these routes. The 84 carries substantial schools traffic (enough to justify a second bus on schooldays) so that alone probably justifies the use of double-deckers. Although the Red group do operate in Watford, and I suspect they have an outstation there, I doubt they would want to take on the 306 and 398 commercially. If Sullivan were to pull out I suspect Hertforshire County Council would need to step in.
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