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Post by Eastlondoner62 on Feb 20, 2021 11:07:01 GMT
The chances are highly likely 0 - it would cost a hell of a lot to adapt a LT to electric operation when you could simply buy a brand new electric bus that's ready to go. Playing devil's advocate here but if TfL's finances were far rosier, I could of forseen a scenario where they actually just actively begin removing them similar to the removal of Artics. Agree zero chance, there is still about 2500 diesel double decks which are generally older So why would they consider changing the approx 2700 hybrids + 1000 LTs I take a slightly different view, as they are already bought and paid for, makes financial sense to use them as long as possible. My forecast is handful may be withdrawn (if damaged) in next 3 years, then possibly handful more (and disassembled for spare parts), they will fade out 2025 onwards, but I actually think about 100 may end up working out their days on school routes. There are some pending tender results which may give a clue, 148 (will it get third contract, even though buses would be over 14 years after another 7 years). The 55 result also due soon. And are the 2 delayed Cranham school results awaiting buses being released from other routes I think the 646 and 648 delay is down to the consultation theyre facing.
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Post by redbus on Feb 20, 2021 16:49:24 GMT
The chances are highly likely 0 - it would cost a hell of a lot to adapt a LT to electric operation when you could simply buy a brand new electric bus that's ready to go. Playing devil's advocate here but if TfL's finances were far rosier, I could of forseen a scenario where they actually just actively begin removing them similar to the removal of Artics. Agree zero chance, there is still about 2500 diesel double decks which are generally older So why would they consider changing the approx 2700 hybrids + 1000 LTs I take a slightly different view, as they are already bought and paid for, makes financial sense to use them as long as possible. My forecast is handful may be withdrawn (if damaged) in next 3 years, then possibly handful more (and disassembled for spare parts), they will fade out 2025 onwards, but I actually think about 100 may end up working out their days on school routes. There are some pending tender results which may give a clue, 148 (will it get third contract, even though buses would be over 14 years after another 7 years). The 55 result also due soon. And are the 2 delayed Cranham school results awaiting buses being released from other routes The problem in converting a LT to electric would be where do you place the batteries. Obviously there is some space where the existing batteries are and the diesel engine would no longer be required which would also free up space, but I have no idea how this would relate to the actual space needed by today's battery technologies. Then there's the question of how you power the other electrics with no diesel engine, lights heating etc. Of course in the years ahead it would be a brave person to bet against newer better battery technologies which might do the job. There is also the question that someone would have to do the design, prototype testing and so on for what would be a maximum of 1000 buses. Having said all this if suitable battery technology did exist it might well be economic even for 1000 buses as the rest of the bus wouldn't need much changing.
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Post by SILENCED on Feb 20, 2021 16:56:10 GMT
Agree zero chance, there is still about 2500 diesel double decks which are generally older So why would they consider changing the approx 2700 hybrids + 1000 LTs I take a slightly different view, as they are already bought and paid for, makes financial sense to use them as long as possible. My forecast is handful may be withdrawn (if damaged) in next 3 years, then possibly handful more (and disassembled for spare parts), they will fade out 2025 onwards, but I actually think about 100 may end up working out their days on school routes. There are some pending tender results which may give a clue, 148 (will it get third contract, even though buses would be over 14 years after another 7 years). The 55 result also due soon. And are the 2 delayed Cranham school results awaiting buses being released from other routes The problem in converting a LT to electric would be where do you place the batteries. Obviously there is some space where the existing batteries are and the diesel engine would no longer be required which would also free up space, but I have no idea how this would relate to the actual space needed by today's battery technologies. Then there's the question of how you power the other electrics with no diesel engine, lights heating etc. Of course in the years ahead it would be a brave person to bet against newer better battery technologies which might do the job. There is also the question that someone would have to do the design, prototype testing and so on for what would be a maximum of 1000 buses. Having said all this if suitable battery technology did exist it might well be economic even for 1000 buses as the rest of the bus wouldn't need much changing. Just a 1000, wow, how many bus models never make that figure?
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Post by bus12451 on Feb 20, 2021 17:22:53 GMT
I would say the 18 and 29 carry much heavier loads throughout the whole route/day than the 149 Also, routes like the 18 run alone most of the route so it would not be ideal to have limited standing space I wouldn't say that's true exactly... I mean it got 13.224 million pre COVID. Ironically the 29 is less busy than the 149, it got 12.740 million pre COVID. Though what does seem rather odd is how pre cut the 140 was busier than the 29 & 149. EDIT: Don't worry - I definitely agree the 29 is incredibly busy. But to say the 149 isn't during the day is untrue The 18, 29 and 149 are of course, former articulated bus routes - the Mercedes-Benz Citaro O530G had a total passenger capacity of roughly 140 I believe (50 seated + 90 standing), much higher than any modern double decker. They also had fast sliding doors IIRC. According to the spec sheets, the Optare Metrodecker EV (MD1050EV) has a total capacity of 94 (63 seated + 31 standing) whilst the BYD-ADL E400EV has a total capacity of 85 (67 seated + 18 standing). It might be worth investing in Metrodeckers for these routes whenever they require new buses, especially if standing space is a priority.
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Post by wirewiper on Feb 20, 2021 17:32:49 GMT
Loooool believe me if I was TFL I'd rather just upgrade the LTs to Electrics or even phase in LTs with 2 doors (SRM style). What's the chances I wonder? The chances are highly likely 0 - it would cost a hell of a lot to adapt a LT to electric operation when you could simply buy a brand new electric bus that's ready to go. Playing devil's advocate here but if TfL's finances were far rosier, I could of forseen a scenario where they actually just actively begin removing them similar to the removal of Artics. I agree, I can't see any benefit in converting LTs to electric midway through their lives when they are already low-emission. As no LT refurbishment programme appears to have started or even been planned, despite the oldest production examples having clocked up more than seven years service, I suspect they are going to be patched up as necessary to keep them going and each one withdrawn as it falls by the wayside and becomes uneconomic to repair. That would probably give most of them around a 10-year life.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 20, 2021 17:56:06 GMT
The chances are highly likely 0 - it would cost a hell of a lot to adapt a LT to electric operation when you could simply buy a brand new electric bus that's ready to go. Playing devil's advocate here but if TfL's finances were far rosier, I could of forseen a scenario where they actually just actively begin removing them similar to the removal of Artics. I agree, I can't see any benefit in converting LTs to electric midway through their lives when they are already low-emission. As no LT refurbishment programme appears to have started or even been planned, despite the oldest production examples having clocked up more than seven years service, I suspect they are going to be patched up as necessary to keep them going and each one withdrawn as it falls by the wayside and becomes uneconomic to repair. That would probably give most of them around a 10-year life. I can strongly see LTs being withdrawn soon or in due course just like what happened with the Bendy Buses.
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Post by southlondonbus on Feb 20, 2021 19:34:35 GMT
Bendy buses were a different type of vehicle. LTs are pretty much hybrid DDs with two exit doors and now have the same boarding arrangents. Tfl have made it clear that hybrids will be accepted for another contract so what makes you think they will be withdrawn soon like bendy buses?
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Post by bus12451 on Feb 20, 2021 19:49:17 GMT
I agree, I can't see any benefit in converting LTs to electric midway through their lives when they are already low-emission. As no LT refurbishment programme appears to have started or even been planned, despite the oldest production examples having clocked up more than seven years service, I suspect they are going to be patched up as necessary to keep them going and each one withdrawn as it falls by the wayside and becomes uneconomic to repair. That would probably give most of them around a 10-year life. I can strongly see LTs being withdrawn soon or in due course just like what happened with the Bendy Buses. Sooner than regular diesels? I think that the majority of LTs will remain in operation until at least 2025, it makes more sense financially to maximise their use, given how much money has been spent on them over the years. Don't forget that these are Euro 6 hybrid buses and there isn't anything wrong with them. If anything it should be the regular, more polluting diesel buses being withdrawn first.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 20, 2021 20:12:13 GMT
I can strongly see LTs being withdrawn soon or in due course just like what happened with the Bendy Buses. Sooner than regular diesels? I think that the majority of LTs will remain in operation until at least 2025, it makes more sense financially to maximise their use, given how much money has been spent on them over the years. Don't forget that these are Euro 6 hybrid buses and there isn't anything wrong with them. If anything it should be the regular, more polluting diesel buses being withdrawn first. Fair and Correct Point, that makes full sense. I believe all buses currently running in TFL service has been upgraded.
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Post by redbus on Feb 20, 2021 20:12:32 GMT
I can strongly see LTs being withdrawn soon or in due course just like what happened with the Bendy Buses. Sooner than regular diesels? I think that the majority of LTs will remain in operation until at least 2025, it makes more sense financially to maximise their use, given how much money has been spent on them over the years. Don't forget that these are Euro 6 hybrid buses and there isn't anything wrong with them. If anything it should be the regular, more polluting diesel buses being withdrawn first. The deployment and removal of bendy buses was basically a political act, as was the deployment of LTs. I think LTs will be around until they are effectively made redundant by zero emission buses which means they are good for another contract. They probably will be refurbished including a battery replacement, far more economical than a new bus. If LTs are removed earlier I think it will again be down to politics.
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Post by MetrolineGA1511 on Mar 6, 2021 6:15:34 GMT
Loooool believe me if I was TFL I'd rather just upgrade the LTs to Electrics or even phase in LTs with 2 doors (SRM style). What's the chances I wonder? The chances are highly likely 0 - it would cost a hell of a lot to adapt a LT to electric operation when you could simply buy a brand new electric bus that's ready to go. Playing devil's advocate here but if TfL's finances were far rosier, I could of forseen a scenario where they actually just actively begin removing them similar to the removal of Artics. My first visit to the forum for 3 weeks, good to be back. It would be funny if a rival candidate for London Mayor was standing on a platform (no pun intended) of replacing the LTs, a bit like Boris pledging to replace the bendibuses, then getting elected.
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Post by snowman on Mar 27, 2021 7:55:09 GMT
Then maybe the free LT's from the 148 could switch with a route such as the E3 so the E3's ADH's go to the 111 (also ADH's not a new type, ADH's for E1) and the LT's go to the E3. Even if the 148 is not renewed (which is looking increasingly likely), there will probably be another route taking over its western end, so that might get some of the current 148 fleet. However my gut feeling is it won’t be the first route to gain LTs in the new round of likely Central London changes. I still feel a GoAhead route will convert using an assortment of LTs from PVR cuts in July or August. But I don’t know which one. My reasoning is to free up buses to transfer to the Blue Triangle school routes gained from September. Unlike the current school extras (where virtually anything is acceptable) they need buses suitable for 5 year contract. I would guess the 148 will end on 30th September (as that is when contract finishes), so 1st October will be implementation day for related changes. I suspect some of them will go straight to mid life refurb (there is £25-50m allocated in TfLs financial plan for this), although due to age the first approx 150 LTs will be a priority for mid life, so the spares might become a refurb float The oldest LTs include those used by Arriva (early ones, part of route 38) Abellio (routes 24, 27); GoAhead (routes 11, 87); Metroline (routes 91, 390); RATP (routes 9, 148). Most of these will be nearer 8 years old by time they get done
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Post by M1104 on Mar 27, 2021 8:46:46 GMT
Then maybe the free LT's from the 148 could switch with a route such as the E3 so the E3's ADH's go to the 111 (also ADH's not a new type, ADH's for E1) and the LT's go to the E3. Even if the 148 is not renewed (which is looking increasingly likely), there will probably be another route taking over its western end, so that might get some of the current 148 fleet. However my gut feeling is it won’t be the first route to gain LTs in the new round of likely Central London changes. I still feel a GoAhead route will convert using an assortment of LTs from PVR cuts in July or August. But I don’t know which one. My reasoning is to free up buses to transfer to the Blue Triangle school routes gained from September. Unlike the current school extras (where virtually anything is acceptable) they need buses suitable for 5 year contract. I would guess the 148 will end on 30th September (as that is when contract finishes), so 1st October will be implementation day for related changes. I suspect some of them will go straight to mid life refurb (there is £25-50m allocated in TfLs financial plan for this), although due to age the first approx 150 LTs will be a priority for mid life, so the spares might become a refurb float The oldest LTs include those used by Arriva (early ones, part of route 38) Abellio (routes 24, 27); GoAhead (routes 11, 87); Metroline (routes 91, 390); RATP (routes 9, 148). Most of these will be nearer 8 years old by time they get done I believe some of the early stock already had a cosmetic refurb. Will that aspect of it be done again as part of the 'mid life' program?
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Post by cl54 on Mar 27, 2021 9:05:13 GMT
One Abellio LT is reported to be out of use for trials with engine modifications and similar work.
There will need to be a float for refurbishment work.
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Post by redexpress on Mar 27, 2021 11:13:29 GMT
Then maybe the free LT's from the 148 could switch with a route such as the E3 so the E3's ADH's go to the 111 (also ADH's not a new type, ADH's for E1) and the LT's go to the E3. Even if the 148 is not renewed (which is looking increasingly likely), there will probably be another route taking over its western end, so that might get some of the current 148 fleet. However my gut feeling is it won’t be the first route to gain LTs in the new round of likely Central London changes. I still feel a GoAhead route will convert using an assortment of LTs from PVR cuts in July or August. But I don’t know which one. My reasoning is to free up buses to transfer to the Blue Triangle school routes gained from September. Unlike the current school extras (where virtually anything is acceptable) they need buses suitable for 5 year contract. I would guess the 148 will end on 30th September (as that is when contract finishes), so 1st October will be implementation day for related changes. I suspect some of them will go straight to mid life refurb (there is £25-50m allocated in TfLs financial plan for this), although due to age the first approx 150 LTs will be a priority for mid life, so the spares might become a refurb float The oldest LTs include those used by Arriva (early ones, part of route 38) Abellio (routes 24, 27); GoAhead (routes 11, 87); Metroline (routes 91, 390); RATP (routes 9, 148). Most of these will be nearer 8 years old by time they get done I wouldn't be surprised if LTs end up directly on the Blue Triangle school routes. The garage is already familiar with them, and it's not as if they are being treated as special flagship vehicles any more.
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