|
|
Post by 6HP502C on Sept 14, 2017 17:36:46 GMT
I am no doubt being thick but I can't see how an Overground service from Dalston to NXG has much impact on the N35. If the Overground was able to run round to Clapham Junction via Peckham then there is much more logic in there being a modal change. Tell me what I'm missing given I'm not a big night time traveller. To be back to Mr Urbanite's post I can't see TfL or the Mayor having a direct policy to move people from buses to Uber / minicabs. People may be doing that of their volition but such a "policy" is in direct contravention of the Draft MTS. I think, based on your many past comments, that the N35 has lost patronage because of chronic overcrowding, delays and bad service management. People don't tolerate that in the daytime when there are loads of alternatives. They're even less likely to tolerate such nonsense at night when they are more vulnerable, have few alternatives and don't want to be stuck for hours. If they find Uber or a minicab works then they won't go back to the buses even if they are much less busy than they were. The interesting overall issue is whether the night time economy and travel is growing, stable or contracting. I also wonder whether TfL are financially better off as the Night Tube was never predicted to break even. I also wonder whether the massive cuts to the Night Bus service are justified in and of themselves or whether it is just a panic measure to try to contain the crisis in the bus budget or even to try to shore up the finances of the Night Tube. I doubt we will ever know as TfL are unlikely to ever make this information public. Night buses don't cost much to run in the grand scheme of things. If you think about it, the buses are already paid for and would otherwise be sat doing nothing, bringing no benefit to anyone. I can't imagine the cost of running an otherwise redundant bus for up to 100 miles for 5 hours overnight is much more than £200. There are day routes with buses moving at artificially slow speeds before clogging up stands where a single PVR cut would dwarf the savings of all these night bus cuts. That said, I totally support the reduction or withdrawal of services where it's clear there is over provision following interventions like Night Tube and the savings signicantly outweigh the social costs. My comment on encouraging the use of minicabs is based on doing things happening which make the service unattractive. The N35 is a case in point - consistent passenger growth which required regular frequency increases to match demand. The April 2016 changes saw it removed without replacement from a traffic generating corridor (Old Street) and made unreliable on weekends between Shoreditch and London Bridge - lost mileage stats would back this up. People don't stop going out so they'll make their own arrangements to get home. A reliability scheme finally went in earlier this month but the damage was done to passenger numbers - and according to the rumour mill, a frequency reduction based on those numbers. Frequency cuts mean increased waiting times and interchange penalties. It is known that this reduces demand. This is an age where there's a rise in easy, reasonably priced access to minicabs on phones without having to call anyone or fumble for change. Public transport provison should aim to stifle the uptake of this, not give people reasons to use it! |
|
|
|
Post by vjaska on Sept 14, 2017 17:37:26 GMT
Although it's indirect it would surely be a lot quicker as would the Central Line to Oxford Circus and the Victoria Line bearing in mind that the 35 is somewhat indirect. And whilst people are complaining about one route in Shoreditch being reduced to a mere 4bph, poor old South Norwood still has no night service at all and sadly won't be getting an LO night service. There aren't that many long distance through journeys - the frequency is, or was based around its principle function of ferrying people from Shoreditch towards South London. It has its own commuters who live along the Walworth Road corridor and in Camberwell, but the majority use it for interchange. Charming as South Norwood is, I don't think it has the hundreds of bars, pubs and clubs in its immediate vicinity that Shoreditch does! It is however served by some of the latest running day routes in London. Although South Norwood doesn't have much nightlife, it's a popular place to go at night for house parties and the few pubs around of which some have function rooms so there's a small element - I went there for a party once and ended up having to walk to Whitehorse Lane to grab the unreliable N68. Aside from that, I'm sure there would be demand to reach either Croydon, Brixton or much further afield, the O2 at North Greenwich which are all popular night spots? |
|
|
|
Post by snoggle on Sept 14, 2017 18:49:29 GMT
Night buses don't cost much to run in the grand scheme of things. If you think about it, the buses are already paid for and would otherwise be sat doing nothing, bringing no benefit to anyone. I can't imagine the cost of running an otherwise redundant bus for up to 100 miles for 5 hours overnight is much more than £200. There are day routes with buses moving at artificially slow speeds before clogging up stands where a single PVR cut would dwarf the savings of all these night bus cuts. That said, I totally support the reduction or withdrawal of services where it's clear there is over provision following interventions like Night Tube and the savings signicantly outweigh the social costs. My comment on encouraging the use of minicabs is based on doing things happening which make the service unattractive. Frequency cuts mean increased waiting times and interchange penalties. It is known that this reduces demand. This is an age where there's a rise in easy, reasonably priced access to minicabs on phones without having to call anyone or fumble for change. Public transport provison should aim to stifle the uptake of this, not give people reasons to use it! OK interesting comments. I can see the point about night routes being a theoretical marginal cost but I wonder if they are really priced like that. If they were so cheap then why on earth were routes that carried decent numbers binned to save money? Routes like the N58 and N75 carried more people than things like the N365 or N271 will ever do. My worry with the night bus cuts is that, on your logic, they're not saving very much money. Secondly what we are now seeing has not been consulted on at all. Thirdly we were promised a further Night Bus review by Val Shawcross that has not materialised. Finally if night routes are so cheap why are the radial route savings not being directed to open up some new suburban weekend routes to give better links / gap fill around the Night Tube or convert existing weekend only routes to nightly where there is a clear demand. Yes I know the "piggy bank is empty" but there is a breach of trust going on here which leaves a really horrible taste in my mouth. None of this was what we were promised by the Mayor and his cohorts. |
|
|
|
Post by ibus246 on Sept 15, 2017 4:08:36 GMT
There aren't that many long distance through journeys - the frequency is, or was based around its principle function of ferrying people from Shoreditch towards South London. It has its own commuters who live along the Walworth Road corridor and in Camberwell, but the majority use it for interchange. Charming as South Norwood is, I don't think it has the hundreds of bars, pubs and clubs in its immediate vicinity that Shoreditch does! It is however served by some of the latest running day routes in London. Although South Norwood doesn't have much nightlife, it's a popular place to go at night for house parties and the few pubs around of which some have function rooms so there's a small element - I went there for a party once and ended up having to walk to Whitehorse Lane to grab the unreliable N68. Aside from that, I'm sure there would be demand to reach either Croydon, Brixton or much further afield, the O2 at North Greenwich which are all popular night spots? I use the N68 quite regularly and find it somewhat reliable? No big deviation in the service schedule ime |
|
|
|
Post by enviroPB on Sept 15, 2017 4:53:37 GMT
Word on the street is a number of Go-Ahead operated night routes are getting weekend frequency cuts by early December:- 35 8bph -> 4bph (3bph -> 2bph weeknights, which does make sense) N63 4bph -> 3bph Also with potential cuts coming to the 12, 453 and N89. The 35 is a sad story really. The N35 was a victim of its own success, an extremely popular route providing unique links from the heart of Shoreditch and Hoxton to South London. So it was cut to only pick up from the fringes of Shoreditch. Not only that, but the new 35 contract was under resourced, so the "frequency increase" from 5bph to 8bph was anything but as it was obvious that there was no hope of a lot of those buses ever reaching Shoreditch. That much is fact - it remains to be seen if the Brixton shorts really are to be withdrawn, or if it's just canteen gossip. And if so, if another route will be taking their place? The cynic in me thinks the aim is to get less people on buses at night and more into Ubers/other private car services. It is such a shame that yet again, TfL plan to tinker with the N35; and as you've eluded to, have decided to yet again under-resource a very busy route. I have only recently become a night time user of Shoreditch in the past year but have used it as an important night bus interchange for many years prior; so know the route well. I can also state under the old N35, there was a strong patronage of passengers wanting late night Thameslink services (that don't call at London Bridge) to Farringdon. One reason I hated the cull from TCR to Shoreditch. Anyway, the cynic in me says that TfL is using the current diversion & passenger displacement in the City to say "look, pax numbers are down anyway. Let's just reduce services" after some 'temporary works' to then cut the N35. The 15 is probably the most prolific example; actually extended to Paddington Basin when Crossrail works began but now permanently culled to Trafalgar Square. I've been riled up by this recently due to how well the N15 is loading along Regent Street since its recent extension to Oxford Circus. I am sure that the 35 cut has a lot to do with the opening of the Overground on Friday/Saturday nights in December. Though that will get people out of Shoreditch quickly and in large numbers all it really has in common with the 35 is that it crosses the river going South - Shoreditch to Brixton or Clapham is two line changes by night tube! I sense TfL having another one of it's "forcing modal shift" moments. I am no doubt being thick but I can't see how an Overground service from Dalston to NXG has much impact on the N35. If the Overground was able to run round to Clapham Junction via Peckham then there is much more logic in there being a modal change. Tell me what I'm missing given I'm not a big night time traveller. To be back to Mr Urbanite's post I can't see TfL or the Mayor having a direct policy to move people from buses to Uber / minicabs. People may be doing that of their volition but such a "policy" is in direct contravention of the Draft MTS. I think, based on your many past comments, that the N35 has lost patronage because of chronic overcrowding, delays and bad service management. People don't tolerate that in the daytime when there are loads of alternatives. They're even less likely to tolerate such nonsense at night when they are more vulnerable, have few alternatives and don't want to be stuck for hours. If they find Uber or a minicab works then they won't go back to the buses even if they are much less busy than they were. The interesting overall issue is whether the night time economy and travel is growing, stable or contracting. I also wonder whether TfL are financially better off as the Night Tube was never predicted to break even. I also wonder whether the massive cuts to the Night Bus service are justified in and of themselves or whether it is just a panic measure to try to contain the crisis in the bus budget or even to try to shore up the finances of the Night Tube. I doubt we will ever know as TfL are unlikely to ever make this information public. You are so right in your first sentence sir; as others have said all Night Overground will do is transport people to the Jubilee Line to then useful connections for the N35. However the N35 losing patronage is predominantly down to bad service management, with a tinge of under-resourcing. On a given weekend night, I normally observe 2/3 buses being curtailed at mostly London Bridge & and times Elephant & Castle towards Shoredtich. That's effectively 5bph under the old N35 contract but with the added disappointment of some buses not making it the full hogey to Clapham Junction. And the sweeter is, most curtailed northbound N35s are buses bound for Clapham, so these services do not see Shoreditch at all [leaving sizeable 30 minute gaps to Clapham]. Ignoring stand space issues at Shoreditch, buses normally have stand space on the Clapham side of 14-16 minutes; that time can easily be eaten by a bus before it's even crossed the river southbound. All these behind-the-scene factors you, I or any other enthusiast can understand and follow. For Joe & Jenny, they see an advertised bus service that simply doesn't come or if it does, it's horrendously late. One straw with drunken punters and that's it. It's tragic; cause I've spoken to club-goers in the Shoreditch area and they actually [try to] hop between there and Clapham Common. Joe & Jenny then moan that the Night Tube doesn't extend on the Bank branch; and if you dare mention the option of the N35 to them, "Uber may be a bit of a wait but it'll take me all the way there mate!" |
|
|
|
Post by redexpress on Sept 15, 2017 10:57:52 GMT
Although South Norwood doesn't have much nightlife, it's a popular place to go at night for house parties and the few pubs around of which some have function rooms so there's a small element - I went there for a party once and ended up having to walk to Whitehorse Lane to grab the unreliable N68. Aside from that, I'm sure there would be demand to reach either Croydon, Brixton or much further afield, the O2 at North Greenwich which are all popular night spots? I use the N68 quite regularly and find it somewhat reliable? No big deviation in the service schedule ime The one issue I have with Q's operation of the N68 is their tendency to curtail late-running buses due for a driver change at Camberwell, with the new driver being sent out on time with a fresh bus. Looks great on the stats, no lost mileage, limited deviance from the schedule, but no good at all for the passengers on the curtailed bus. I only use the route occasionally but have had this happen several times - including one time where the curtailment was only given on Walworth Road, meaning we had no choice but to wait nearly 30 minutes at Camberwell for the next bus  At least on the other occasions the curtailment was advertised from the start, so I took a different route instead. |
|
|
|
Post by vjaska on Sept 15, 2017 11:46:53 GMT
Although South Norwood doesn't have much nightlife, it's a popular place to go at night for house parties and the few pubs around of which some have function rooms so there's a small element - I went there for a party once and ended up having to walk to Whitehorse Lane to grab the unreliable N68. Aside from that, I'm sure there would be demand to reach either Croydon, Brixton or much further afield, the O2 at North Greenwich which are all popular night spots? I use the N68 quite regularly and find it somewhat reliable? No big deviation in the service schedule ime That maybe is the case now but a few years back, those who used it regularly said it was unreliable and the night I needed it, it also was unreliable. |
|
|
|
Post by 6HP502C on Sept 15, 2017 16:19:09 GMT
If demand is there then I'm sure TFL will cut it. Why would they? If the 35 has heavy loadings then it will stay as it is. That's not quite how it works. The night 176 received a frequency increase from 3bph to 4bph a couple of years ago, because boarders were being crowded off at Camberwell Green and points along Walworth Road. TfL reversed this in June 2017 so it's back to 3bph. As there are no alternatives south of Camberwell Green, people just have to lump it and make their own arrangements to get home. I'm thankful I don't rely on that service any more. There's a lot of noise being made about bus network usage declining and supposed efforts being made to reverse this - yet there are examples emerging of demand being forcibly reduced by making cuts to services where usage has consistently increased over the years! |
|
|
|
Post by snoggle on Sept 15, 2017 17:17:33 GMT
If demand is there then I'm sure TFL will cut it. Why would they? If the 35 has heavy loadings then it will stay as it is. That's not quite how it works. The night 176 received a frequency increase from 3bph to 4bph a couple of years ago, because boarders were being crowded off at Camberwell Green and points along Walworth Road. TfL reversed this in June 2017 so it's back to 3bph. As there are no alternatives south of Camberwell Green, people just have to lump it and make their own arrangements to get home. I'm thankful I don't rely on that service any more. There's a lot of noise being made about bus network usage declining and supposed efforts being made to reverse this - yet there are examples emerging of demand being forcibly reduced by making cuts to services where usage has consistently increased over the years! When I did my night bus photo session a few weeks ago possibly the heaviest loaded bus at T Square I saw was a N176 heading to Penge. Says it all really - busier than the N15!  |
|
|
|
Post by Eastlondoner62 on Sept 15, 2017 17:56:48 GMT
That's not quite how it works. The night 176 received a frequency increase from 3bph to 4bph a couple of years ago, because boarders were being crowded off at Camberwell Green and points along Walworth Road. TfL reversed this in June 2017 so it's back to 3bph. As there are no alternatives south of Camberwell Green, people just have to lump it and make their own arrangements to get home. I'm thankful I don't rely on that service any more. There's a lot of noise being made about bus network usage declining and supposed efforts being made to reverse this - yet there are examples emerging of demand being forcibly reduced by making cuts to services where usage has consistently increased over the years! When I did my night bus photo session a few weeks ago possibly the heaviest loaded bus at T Square I saw was a N176 heading to Penge. Says it all really - busier than the N15! Even away from the Central section out in areas like Sydenham and Forest Hill I've seen crowded, or at least decently loaded N176s. Most of the areas it serves are away from Underground territory so I'm not sure why TfL cut its frequency. Can't imagine what TfL will do to the frequency of it once the Overground starts running 24 hours. |
|
|
|
Post by snoggle on Sept 15, 2017 20:24:26 GMT
When I did my night bus photo session a few weeks ago possibly the heaviest loaded bus at T Square I saw was a N176 heading to Penge. Says it all really - busier than the N15! Even away from the Central section out in areas like Sydenham and Forest Hill I've seen crowded, or at least decently loaded N176s. Most of the areas it serves are away from Underground territory so I'm not sure why TfL cut its frequency. Can't imagine what TfL will do to the frequency of it once the Overground starts running 24 hours. Probably nothing given the Overground will run no further south than NXG. There are no obvious night bus routes from NXG which fully mirror the Overground route *unless* TfL creates one. The N171 covers a couple of stops but beyond that there's nothing. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Sept 16, 2017 6:05:16 GMT
Even away from the Central section out in areas like Sydenham and Forest Hill I've seen crowded, or at least decently loaded N176s. Most of the areas it serves are away from Underground territory so I'm not sure why TfL cut its frequency. Can't imagine what TfL will do to the frequency of it once the Overground starts running 24 hours. Probably nothing given the Overground will run no further south than NXG. There are no obvious night bus routes from NXG which fully mirror the Overground route *unless* TfL creates one. The N171 covers a couple of stops but beyond that there's nothing. Maybe Citymapper will start up south of New Cross Gate , scheduled route between there and Croydon? It's sorely needed ( discussed many times on here 😉) |
|
|
|
Post by enviroPB on Sept 16, 2017 13:13:03 GMT
Probably nothing given the Overground will run no further south than NXG. There are no obvious night bus routes from NXG which fully mirror the Overground route *unless* TfL creates one. The N171 covers a couple of stops but beyond that there's nothing. Maybe Citymapper will start up south of New Cross Gate , scheduled route between there and Croydon? It's sorely needed ( discussed many times on here 😉) That's dependant on TfL granting them the operating license IIRC, so plans can't materialise until then. |
|
|
|
Post by SILENCED on Sept 16, 2017 13:24:14 GMT
Probably nothing given the Overground will run no further south than NXG. There are no obvious night bus routes from NXG which fully mirror the Overground route *unless* TfL creates one. The N171 covers a couple of stops but beyond that there's nothing. Maybe Citymapper will start up south of New Cross Gate , scheduled route between there and Croydon? It's sorely needed ( discussed many times on here 😉) I would sincerely hope that if South Norwood does get a night bus it does not follow the London Bridge mainline to NXG. So many better options! |
|
|
|
Post by 6HP502C on Sept 17, 2017 10:46:16 GMT
OK interesting comments. I can see the point about night routes being a theoretical marginal cost but I wonder if they are really priced like that. If they were so cheap then why on earth were routes that carried decent numbers binned to save money? Routes like the N58 and N75 carried more people than things like the N365 or N271 will ever do. My worry with the night bus cuts is that, on your logic, they're not saving very much money. Secondly what we are now seeing has not been consulted on at all. Thirdly we were promised a further Night Bus review by Val Shawcross that has not materialised. Finally if night routes are so cheap why are the radial route savings not being directed to open up some new suburban weekend routes to give better links / gap fill around the Night Tube or convert existing weekend only routes to nightly where there is a clear demand. Yes I know the "piggy bank is empty" but there is a breach of trust going on here which leaves a really horrible taste in my mouth. None of this was what we were promised by the Mayor and his cohorts. It has been publicly implied by TfL that one PVR costs around £256,750 per annum - source (page 1). I presume weekly mileage would be about average due to the length of the route. It is also regularly stated in the tender awards that night routes use vehicles from day routes - i.e the N68 using buses from the 45. Anything to do with costs is pure speculation on my part as it's a very complicated area - the Bus Tenders page demonstrates wild variances with per miles costs. But there are some clues there. If the 931 could be run for £7k a year, that obviously doesn't include the cost of the bus itself. Night buses run at times when buses are otherwise redundant so an ad-hoc frequency increase probably would be marginal. Again, total speculation on my part but a decrease may not work the same way - there's an argument to say that night buses are marginal, but it could also be argued that they aren't in the case of a reduction as the price may have included mileage operated as a whole, regardless of whether it's at peak times or otherwise. Even if the cost is marginal, running virtually empty buses doesn't make much sense. I genuinely have no idea why the 271 survives - it serves Central London and Old Street yet has worse passenger numbers than some of the suburban routes, plus is largely paralleled by the 43 which offers a superior service. Most of the week, the majority of 365 trips don't even attract double figures of boarders - but I guess it plugs a significant gap in the network. What concerns me is the cavalier axe swinging of popular night services. I was in New Cross, Marquis of Granby at 2am this morning waiting for a bus to Lewisham. The N89 is rumoured to be considered for a cut to 2bph at weekends. One vomit, which is pretty likely on these kind of routes and that's a 60 minute gap in the service. I took a photograph of the overrevving E51 last night - look at the steamed up windows and tell me it's carrying fresh air and wants cutting - picture. The N136 on weekends was cut from 3bph to 2bph in May 2017. Before this went in, at 3bph there were already crowding issues along the Camberwell New Road corridor, because Night Tube boosted demand for the route out of Vauxhall. Sometimes I finish shifts at WL at 2am on Sunday mornings and every single time the crowding situation is stupid - I can't get on a bus outside the garage for overcrowding so have to walk to Camberwell Green on the off chance there will be space, along with the 20 or so other people that are usually also waiting there. For people further up the corridor, tough luck. The London Overground is certain to increase usage of these routes. I for one already see it as an attractive way to get to Lewisham from Shoreditch, or the West End with a nice change at Canada Water. I certainly won't be the only one - people who feel through buses to the suburbs of SE London are quite slow (or unreliable like the 35 trunk route) will be attracted to this new option. Where it comes to night routes in areas barren of Night Tube, cutting crowded services seems to be in favour at the moment. Are people just expected to not go out or work shifts that finish in the small hours   I was out on the town on Friday night and found my way to Whitehall. There are some amazing things happening on the network - the 53 is one of them. High speed, reliable, frequent, direct, well used trunk service which offers very decent connections. I haven't heard anything about this one being cut - yet. I was on one last night which seriously impressed with its handling of the Old Kent Road - left a crowded 453 for dust at Bricklayers Arms and was moving significantly faster than the traffic in the outside lane. I don't care much for the MMCs from an enthusiast perspective but the NRM hasn't a hope in hell of keeping up with those things. The NRMs push up the cost of operation of night routes with their painfully slow doors hampering running times. The 53 had opened up a 5 minute gap from that 453 by Marquis of Granby. The 35 fulfils a similar role from Shoreditch to Camberwell - frequent trunk service offering lots of links - we need to see more of this! If TfL really wants to save money, there's a lot of fat to be trimmed from excessively resourced day bus routes which could run at the same frequency with less buses. Very good for operators of course but I'd happily submit observations for investigation if it meant saving crowded night bus services from being reduced |
|
At least on the other occasions the curtailment was advertised from the start, so I took a different route instead.
