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Post by busaholic on Apr 18, 2019 15:48:41 GMT
Stagecoach have just completed the sale of their North American arm. Don't be surprised to see them buy out Arriva, on the proviso from the competition and merger's bods that in certain areas, they have to sell off some of the routes and garages, like the North east for example, maybe even London. I think they'd definitely have an interest in the bits other companies wouldn't really want, especially in Kent, as they'd have full coverage from London, all the way through to the coast. If anything, I think it makes sense for Stagecoach to get it, to fill in the few gaps where they don't operate. Stagecoach would be in the same position in the bus industry as Tesco were in the grocery industry a few years ago if such a sale was able to go ahead, albeit with a few restrictions. Tesco's comedown since then has been almost entirely self-inflicted, although some of it lies at the door of internet orders which also affect their competitors. The Monopolies people were ineffective against Tesco just as they've been almost useless against Stagecoach, and other large operators, in both bus and train operations in this country. Even so, I can't see that Stagecoach would be allowed to control virtually all the major bus traffic south of the Thames from Thanet right out to Wiltshire and Dorset, excepting Go-Ahead in the Brighton, Crawley and Swindon areas and Reading Buses in Berkshire. It'd be a vast 'monopoly' which couldn't be solved by the enforced sale of operations in one small area, as occurred in Preston. Sainsbury/Asda merger was expected to be given the nod after a suitable number of stores were divested, but the Competitions people raised objections at every level, such that the deal is as good as dead. I think there's a good chance that Stagecoach will not be allowed to buy Arriva wholesale.
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Post by dennistas on Apr 18, 2019 15:50:33 GMT
AFAIK Arriva are not leaving London, they have just retained the 29 and 102 + gained the 34 & 192.
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Post by sid on Apr 18, 2019 15:56:17 GMT
AFAIK Arriva are not leaving London, they have just retained the 29 and 102 + gained the 34 & 192. It's business as usual until if and when they do sell up.
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Post by 15002 on Apr 18, 2019 16:03:10 GMT
AFAIK Arriva are not leaving London, they have just retained the 29 and 102 + gained the 34 & 192. Doesn’t discount Arriva from leaving London. First bidded for the 425 despite them eventually leaving.
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Post by wirewiper on Apr 18, 2019 16:08:48 GMT
Stagecoach have just completed the sale of their North American arm. Don't be surprised to see them buy out Arriva, on the proviso from the competition and merger's bods that in certain areas, they have to sell off some of the routes and garages, like the North east for example, maybe even London. I think they'd definitely have an interest in the bits other companies wouldn't really want, especially in Kent, as they'd have full coverage from London, all the way through to the coast. If anything, I think it makes sense for Stagecoach to get it, to fill in the few gaps where they don't operate. Stagecoach would be in the same position in the bus industry as Tesco were in the grocery industry a few years ago if such a sale was able to go ahead, albeit with a few restrictions. Tesco's comedown since then has been almost entirely self-inflicted, although some of it lies at the door of internet orders which also affect their competitors. The Monopolies people were ineffective against Tesco just as they've been almost useless against Stagecoach, and other large operators, in both bus and train operations in this country. Even so, I can't see that Stagecoach would be allowed to control virtually all the major bus traffic south of the Thames from Thanet right out to Wiltshire and Dorset, excepting Go-Ahead in the Brighton and Swindon areas and Reading Buses in Berkshire. It'd be a vast 'monopoly' which couldn't be solved by the enforced sale of operations in one small area, as occurred in Preston. Sainsbury/Asda merger was expected to be given the nod after a suitable number of stores were divested, but the Competitions people raised objections at every level, such that the deal is as good as dead. I think there's a good chance that Stagecoach will not be allowed to buy Arriva wholesale. Yes we have a serious dilemma here. Stagecoach certainly appear to be interested in buying the UK bus operations of Arriva (let's leave UK rail and Arriva's non-UK operations out of this for the moment). However the Monopolies and Mergers Commission would not be happy with a virtual Stagecoach monopoly in parts of North-East England, Merseyside, and the South-East around London. TfL and the Mayor would probably also be uneasy about Stagecoach having such a large share of the London contract market (certainly well over the 25% share that is deemed the maximum desirable for any one company to own). Yet DB doesn't seem to want to break up the UK bus division - and no-one other than Stagecoach appears realistically to be in any position to buy it as a whole. Either Arriva is going to end up having to be broken up for sale - or some organisation going to come in completely from leftfield (possibly China) and surprise us all.
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Post by nickfreckle on Apr 18, 2019 16:10:49 GMT
Stagecoach have just completed the sale of their North American arm. Don't be surprised to see them buy out Arriva, on the proviso from the competition and merger's bods that in certain areas, they have to sell off some of the routes and garages, like the North east for example, maybe even London. I think they'd definitely have an interest in the bits other companies wouldn't really want, especially in Kent, as they'd have full coverage from London, all the way through to the coast. If anything, I think it makes sense for Stagecoach to get it, to fill in the few gaps where they don't operate. Stagecoach would be in the same position in the bus industry as Tesco were in the grocery industry a few years ago if such a sale was able to go ahead, albeit with a few restrictions. Tesco's comedown since then has been almost entirely self-inflicted, although some of it lies at the door of internet orders which also affect their competitors. The Monopolies people were ineffective against Tesco just as they've been almost useless against Stagecoach, and other large operators, in both bus and train operations in this country. Even so, I can't see that Stagecoach would be allowed to control virtually all the major bus traffic south of the Thames from Thanet right out to Wiltshire and Dorset, excepting Go-Ahead in the Brighton and Swindon areas and Reading Buses in Berkshire. It'd be a vast 'monopoly' which couldn't be solved by the enforced sale of operations in one small area, as occurred in Preston. Sainsbury/Asda merger was expected to be given the nod after a suitable number of stores were divested, but the Competitions people raised objections at every level, such that the deal is as good as dead. I think there's a good chance that Stagecoach will not be allowed to buy Arriva wholesale. Public transport is somewhat different to groceries though. Granted, Stagecoach would turn massive swathes of the bus network white and blue - because off the top of my head to the North of The Thames, Arriva operate in Southend, Harlow, Herts, Bucks, Suffolk, and that would link the empire to the North and East of London. The only bits not Arriva in Essex would be Thurrock, Basildon and Chelmsford, and the former Eastern National areas, now First. I would think, but can't be definate, that perhaps they could purchase Arriva and keep it at an arms length part of the group, and run it as an entirely separate entity. Would Go-Ahead Group, Abellio, or any of the other majors want it? Go-Ahead getting it would mean they'd control almost the majority of the London Bus network, so not sure they'd be allowed to purchase either. It's certainly going to be interesting watching where it goes, but my money is still on Stagecoach getting it in some capacity or another, be it as a whole, with bits sold off to other operators after sale, or as a whole and run as a totally separate entity, arms length, keeping the Arriva name and branding.
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Post by nickfreckle on Apr 18, 2019 16:12:03 GMT
AFAIK Arriva are not leaving London, they have just retained the 29 and 102 + gained the 34 & 192. If Arriva Bus is sold mate, then London would go with it.
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Post by SILENCED on Apr 18, 2019 16:14:10 GMT
Stagecoach would be in the same position in the bus industry as Tesco were in the grocery industry a few years ago if such a sale was able to go ahead, albeit with a few restrictions. Tesco's comedown since then has been almost entirely self-inflicted, although some of it lies at the door of internet orders which also affect their competitors. The Monopolies people were ineffective against Tesco just as they've been almost useless against Stagecoach, and other large operators, in both bus and train operations in this country. Even so, I can't see that Stagecoach would be allowed to control virtually all the major bus traffic south of the Thames from Thanet right out to Wiltshire and Dorset, excepting Go-Ahead in the Brighton and Swindon areas and Reading Buses in Berkshire. It'd be a vast 'monopoly' which couldn't be solved by the enforced sale of operations in one small area, as occurred in Preston. Sainsbury/Asda merger was expected to be given the nod after a suitable number of stores were divested, but the Competitions people raised objections at every level, such that the deal is as good as dead. I think there's a good chance that Stagecoach will not be allowed to buy Arriva wholesale. Public transport is somewhat different to groceries though. Granted, Stagecoach would turn massive swathes of the bus network white and blue - because off the top of my head to the North of The Thames, Arriva operate in Southend, Harlow, Herts, Bucks, Suffolk, and that would link the empire to the North and East of London. The only bits not Arriva in Essex would be Thurrock, Basildon and Chelmsford, and the former Eastern National areas, now First. I would think, but can't be definate, that perhaps they could purchase Arriva and keep it at an arms length part of the group, and run it as an entirely separate entity. Would Go-Ahead Group, Abellio, or any of the other majors want it? Go-Ahead getting it would mean they'd control almost the majority of the London Bus network, so not sure they'd be allowed to purchase either. It's certainly going to be interesting watching where it goes, but my money is still on Stagecoach getting it in some capacity or another, be it as a whole, with bits sold off to other operators after sale, or as a whole and run as a totally separate entity, arms length, keeping the Arriva name and branding. I still think an IPO will be the way they go in London.
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Post by nickfreckle on Apr 18, 2019 16:14:29 GMT
Speaking of Left-Field, I don't think there would be too much objection to Virgin Buses would there? 49% Stagecoach, 51% Virgin? Food for thought.
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Post by SILENCED on Apr 18, 2019 16:16:02 GMT
Speaking of Left-Field, I don't think there would be too much objection to Virgin Buses would there? 49% Stagecoach, 51% Virgin? Food for thought. Competition wise that would be regarded in the same light as 100% Stagecoach
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Post by nickfreckle on Apr 18, 2019 16:18:40 GMT
Speaking of Left-Field, I don't think there would be too much objection to Virgin Buses would there? 49% Stagecoach, 51% Virgin? Food for thought. Competition wise that would be regarded in the same light as 100% Stagecoach You know that for sure? Virgin being the majority shareholder, would be the legal entity and be the O Licence holder. I'm pretty sure it wouldn't be classed as 100% Stagecoach, because legally, it wouldn't be.
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Post by dennistas on Apr 18, 2019 17:57:41 GMT
AFAIK Arriva are not leaving London, they have just retained the 29 and 102 + gained the 34 & 192. If Arriva Bus is sold mate, then London would go with it. If Stagecoach buy the London operations of Arriva, will be so interesting as we would spread into North London deeply to areas like Tottenham and Wood Green. Really looking forward to see what happens. Watch this space as they say!!!
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Post by SILENCED on Apr 18, 2019 18:21:29 GMT
If Arriva Bus is sold mate, then London would go with it. If Stagecoach buy the London operations of Arriva, will be so interesting as we would spread into North London deeply to areas like Tottenham and Wood Green. Really looking forward to see what happens. Watch this space as they say!!! DB are looking to sell whole Arriva operation spanning 14 countries in one go. Everything from DB suggests they are not looking to split the business in anyway ...I would say it is near 100% certain the will not sell London off separately ... if bus is seperated out it is likely to be 14 countries of bus operations you need to buy ... not just London ... and how Stagecoach would fun such a purchase is certainly not clear
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Post by SILENCED on Apr 18, 2019 18:30:16 GMT
Competition wise that would be regarded in the same light as 100% Stagecoach You know that for sure? Virgin being the majority shareholder, would be the legal entity and be the O Licence holder. I'm pretty sure it wouldn't be classed as 100% Stagecoach, because legally, it wouldn't be. Was not 100% sure and just read up on it ... if you have a 30%+ share it will be considered as part of any competitive investigations.
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Post by dennistas on Apr 18, 2019 18:37:29 GMT
If Stagecoach buy the London operations of Arriva, will be so interesting as we would spread into North London deeply to areas like Tottenham and Wood Green. Really looking forward to see what happens. Watch this space as they say!!! DB are looking to sell whole Arriva operation spanning 14 countries in one go. Everything from DB suggests they are not looking to split the business in anyway ...I would say it is near 100% certain the will not sell London off separately ... if bus is seperated out it is likely to be 14 countries of bus operations you need to buy ... not just London ... and how Stagecoach would fun such a purchase is certainly not clear How soon will we find out if Stagecoach buy it? I'm more interested in the London operations of Arriva more than any other part!
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