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Post by danorak on Feb 19, 2014 12:05:21 GMT
Something that comes up time and again in the route idea threads is 'yes, but when Crossrail opens...'. The experience with Tramlink and the Jubilee Line would suggest that some pretty widespread changes are inevitable, and given the nature of Crossrail, right across London. So I thought it might be handy to have a thread where we can look forward to what's likely to happen and to pull together what we find out as information becomes available. (Local council discussions can sometimes give an early lead on this sort of thing.)
About the only thing we know for sure it seems, is that route 7 is in for some major surgery - possible changes due to Crossrail were cited as a reason for this route not receiving LTs/NB4Ls/New Routemasters/Boris Buses (delete according to taste). But there will be a need to distribute passengers beyond places like Tottenham Court Road and Farringdon. How will that be done? And what about routes like the 472? Will there be a reduction in travel to North Greenwich for the Isle of Dogs in favour of Abbey Wood, or will the temptation to save two farezones remain strong?
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Post by snoggle on Feb 19, 2014 18:56:26 GMT
I attended the Transport Committee Bus Seminar today [1]. While no specific route details were mentioned it is evident that TfL are looking at North Bexley and Greenwich as two review areas. Crossrail was mentioned *in addition* to these areas as a source for review.
It was clear that a lot of councillors and campaigners are *very* fed up with the bus service and the lack of improvement. I got a very slight sense that it will become a big issue for the 2016 Election. Nothing fundamental is going to happen under Boris so if you want better buses vote for someone else in 2016 who might give you them.
[1] for some reason I was invited to attend. Nearly everyone else in the room was from a council or a transport campaign group. Mr Nicholass from Stagecoach was on the attendee list too but as I don't know him from Adam I can't confirm if he was there or not. I did say hello to Leon Daniels who I have met before.
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Post by twobellstogo on Feb 19, 2014 19:29:40 GMT
I attended the Transport Committee Bus Seminar today [1]. While no specific route details were mentioned it is evident that TfL are looking at North Bexley and Greenwich as two review areas. Crossrail was mentioned *in addition* to these areas as a source for review. Oh good.  I could reel off a whole list of things that would be desirable to add to the network in this (home for me) patch, which I will probably post here. Later...  |
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Post by snoggle on Feb 19, 2014 19:41:32 GMT
I attended the Transport Committee Bus Seminar today [1]. While no specific route details were mentioned it is evident that TfL are looking at North Bexley and Greenwich as two review areas. Crossrail was mentioned *in addition* to these areas as a source for review. Oh good. I could reel off a whole list of things that would be desirable to add to the network in this (home for me) patch, which I will probably post here. Later... Might actually be better to turn them into a concise letter or E Mail to your local councillor, Assembly Member and to TfL. Obviously you can post whatever you like here. Leon Daniels said TfL wanted to be more transparent about service planning and to have more feedback. If people have genuinely well thought out ideas then they should share them. If TfL turn round and say "get lost" then go back and say that was not what was said to over 100 people in a room at City Hall on 19 Feb 2014.  |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 19, 2014 20:37:54 GMT
Why do TFL assume passengers want to transfer to trains from buses?
We lost our Central London connection (Route 15) in the Canning Town area as a result of the Jubilee Line opening.
So with route 7 do they assume people will desert the route in the 1000s once crossrail opens?
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Post by snoggle on Feb 19, 2014 21:03:54 GMT
Why do TFL assume passengers want to transfer to trains from buses? We lost our Central London connection (Route 15) in the Canning Town area as a result of the Jubilee Line opening. So with route 7 do they assume people will desert the route in the 1000s once crossrail opens? This issue came up in the Bus Seminar but in the context of route 25. There were strongly held views that people cram on the 25 because they simply cannot afford peak time rail, tube or DLR fares which go into Zone 1. On this basis they said it would be a mistake for TfL to assume that people will switch from the 25 to Crossrail if the fares were the same or higher than tube fares. This will, of course, present TfL with some real problems because I'd certainly expect them to hack the 25, 86 and 205 about in order to free up resources for better suburban bus links to Crossrail stations. This would be immensely unpopular and would worsen what is already a chronic problem in the peaks. One very interesting remark was that house prices / rents / benefit changes are pushing low paid people out of Zones 1 and 2. They are being pushed as far out as Zone 6 which is creating unexpected pressure on outer area bus routes and meaning people are having to take multiple buses to get to work whereas before they might have taken just 1 shortish trip. These sorts of implications would never dawn on government ministers when they change benefit rules (remember most benefits go to those in work). More worryingly, of course, is that this is yet another change which is not reflected in any plans anywhere for the bus network. Of course someone at the Bus Seminar stood up and said, in all seriousness, that the bus network had not been reviewed *at all* since 1966 and that the *entire* bus network had to be reviewed now. Clearly area retendering and the Jubilee Line changes never happened.   |
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Post by twobellstogo on Feb 19, 2014 22:06:14 GMT
Oh good. I could reel off a whole list of things that would be desirable to add to the network in this (home for me) patch, which I will probably post here. Later... Might actually be better to turn them into a concise letter or E Mail to your local councillor, Assembly Member and to TfL. Obviously you can post whatever you like here. Leon Daniels said TfL wanted to be more transparent about service planning and to have more feedback. If people have genuinely well thought out ideas then they should share them. If TfL turn round and say "get lost" then go back and say that was not what was said to over 100 people in a room at City Hall on 19 Feb 2014. I shall be, snoggle, I shall be! danorak : I suspect many will still travel to/from NG post Crossrail, particularly on quick services such as the 472 and the western half of the 132. |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 3, 2014 14:23:54 GMT
I would assume Abbey Wood will become a very popular interchange for London / North Kent residents. There will be a huge reduction in passengers on the southeastern network in to town from Abbey Wood.
Bus wise, other than some minor extensions I cant see there being huge changes.
The 24 hour weekend tube i think will give more radical changes to outer London bus routes.
What is urgently needed in the poorest areas of which is NE/E/SE London are some major improvements for routes like the 1,2,5,15,21,25,36,47,48,53,55,56,63,75 , could go on and on really.
Rail travel is simply out of reach cost wise for many essential workers and they do not run early or late enough all days of the week to benefit shift workers.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 4, 2014 21:10:24 GMT
I predict major changes to the Central London bus network in 2018. I believe that will be hubs for buses to terminate at rather than 'random' stops like Regent Street for the 15, hence the reason why I believe it has cutback to Trafalgar Square. The daytime and nighttime terminals for all buses could remain the same.
Also, I think bus routes like the 205 which cross central London may be shortened...for example instead of terminating at Paddington the route may end at Euston or Kings Cross where it is much more convenient and easier to make changes between buses. Also, it is possible that the current central London routes may be given extensions into the suburbs...the 23 could be extended northwards and southbound journeys can end at Oxford Circus/ Trafalgar Square rather than Liverpool Street.
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Post by snoggle on Mar 4, 2014 23:20:34 GMT
I predict major changes to the Central London bus network in 2018. I believe that will be hubs for buses to terminate at rather than 'random' stops like Regent Street for the 15, hence the reason why I believe it has cutback to Trafalgar Square. The daytime and nighttime terminals for all buses could remain the same. Also, I think bus routes like the 205 which cross central London may be shortened...for example instead of terminating at Paddington the route may end at Euston or Kings Cross where it is much more convenient and easier to make changes between buses. Also, it is possible that the current central London routes may be given extensions into the suburbs...the 23 could be extended northwards and southbound journeys can end at Oxford Circus/ Trafalgar Square rather than Liverpool Street. I think lots of expensive consultants employed by Oxford St shop owners will want the bus network in the Central area dismantled. Worryingly people like Wolmar and Adonis seem to agree with pedestrianising Oxford St off the back of Crossrail. The problem with your proposal is that if you use TfL's own business case logic you will break significant volumes of through journeys. This is a huge negative in their appraisal methodology and it would be hard / impossible for TfL to justify curtailing the 23 or snapping the 205 in half. Let's be frank here - Crossrail is not a miracle solution for London's transport woes. It is 20-30 years late, it will be full within months and whatever temporary relief there may be on tube services like the Central will soon be used up. The economy is not yet motoring along at full pelt and when it does it will create massive strain on the transport network as demand for all forms of travel increases. To give a real life example when the 7th carriage was added to Jubilee Line trains (a 16% increase in capacity) this extra capacity was used up in 10 weeks (the Line General Manager at the time gave a presentation on this). That is the sort of problem we face - any extra capacity on busy rail routes is eaten up very quickly. While it will be possible to extend Crossrail trains and buy extra ones to enhance frequencies this all takes years to do *if* the money is available. The bus network has to be there to try to take up the slack as well as recognising that travel costs and population / residence changes mean that demand for bus travel will continue to increase. You cannot in all seriousness dismantle the heart of the bus network in those conditions. I expect there will be huge pressure to trim Zone 1's bus network but I think the political fall out will be immense. It should certainly be made an issue for the 2016 Mayoral Election (IMO) as people deserve to know what all of the Mayoral candidates think about this topic. I do expect parts of the suburban network to be refocussed in places like Romford / Havering, Ealing / West Ealing, Southall, Hayes and stops east of Ilford. Big centres like Ilford and Stratford already have their bus services routed past or close to the rail hubs so I don't see the networks changing hugely there. |
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Post by marlon101 on Mar 7, 2014 22:30:18 GMT
Curiously this has a ring to it. Don't let the Estate Agents catch wind of it..! Bexley Council have long complained about the lack of transport investment in this area but I cannot see Bexley gaining, or needing, significant changes off the back of Crossrail. I can imagine a few resources could potentially be freed up from North Greenwich but I'd be reluctant to tinker with the frequencies of any of the routes that serve it. The two most significant changes I can forsee are relatively minor points: the double-decking of the 428. I couldn't tell you whether it was feasible or not but the 244 has got to be a good candidate for double-decking as it is. I can see this receiving a frequency increase and double-decking. Beyond that, the vast majority of the Borough of Bexley already has good bus access to Crossrail. I may be being blind, but I can't see any areas of weakness?? The 229 could potentially be granted a night service. I would also suspect that the B11/229 corridor between Bexleyheath and Abbey Wood would be well monitored/evaluated for potential capacity increases. That may all be fantasy. Did you manage to hear anything more specific on what they were looking at/had in mind. I can't see anything on the scale of 1999 taking place. |
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Post by snoggle on Mar 7, 2014 22:45:29 GMT
Curiously this has a ring to it. Don't let the Estate Agents catch wind of it..! Bexley Council have long complained about the lack of transport investment in this area but I cannot see Bexley gaining, or needing, significant changes off the back of Crossrail. I can imagine a few resources could potentially be freed up from North Greenwich but I'd be reluctant to tinker with the frequencies of any of the routes that serve it. The two most significant changes I can forsee are relatively minor points: the double-decking of the 428. I couldn't tell you whether it was feasible or not but the 244 has got to be a good candidate for double-decking as it is. I can see this receiving a frequency increase and double-decking. Beyond that, the vast majority of the Borough of Bexley already has good bus access to Crossrail. I may be being blind, but I can't see any areas of weakness?? The 229 could potentially be granted a night service. I would also suspect that the B11/229 corridor between Bexleyheath and Abbey Wood would be well monitored/evaluated for potential capacity increases. That may all be fantasy. Did you manage to hear anything more specific on what they were looking at/had in mind. I can't see anything on the scale of 1999 taking place. Unfortunately there was no detail. There was just a dash through a list of places where TfL are doing reviews. Leon Daniels has a set of "standard phrases" when appearing in front of a critical audience and one of the themes is to try to convince local politicians that TfL does review routes regularly and not once every 5-7 years (which is the perception from those outside). This time the audience were treated to a list of areas being reviewed in addition to the general point about there being regular reviews and route changes for a variety of reasons. The webcasts of both parts of the Seminar are on the London.gov websiteEDIT - I have replayed the webcast and the places Leon listed as being reviewed were "Bexley Riverside, New Addington, Greenwich, South Newham and areas affected by Crossrail". |
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Post by overgroundcommuter on Mar 8, 2014 0:57:09 GMT
Despite the East London line extension of the London Overground which has benefited passengers in Forest Hill and Sydenham, the 176 and 185 are still very busy routes into Central London, in particular in the peaks where it can be hard to get a seat past Dulwich Library.
Even when Crossrail opens in Woolwich, I still see full to capacity 53's full of people who can't afford Crossrail's fares. The real benefits are really for rail passengers, who'll enjoy the extra capacity on Southeastern services on the Greenwich line as the North Kent commuters alight at Abbey Wood instead of staying on to London Terminals. Southern services which stop at East London Line stations also enjoy lighter used services as they've all gone onto the Overground trains which have direct transfer to the tube and DLR.
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Post by vjaska on Mar 8, 2014 1:36:46 GMT
Despite the East London line extension of the London Overground which has benefited passengers in Forest Hill and Sydenham, the 176 and 185 are still very busy routes into Central London, in particular in the peaks where it can be hard to get a seat past Dulwich Library. Even when Crossrail opens in Woolwich, I still see full to capacity 53's full of people who can't afford Crossrail's fares. The real benefits are really for rail passengers, who'll enjoy the extra capacity on Southeastern services on the Greenwich line as the North Kent commuters alight at Abbey Wood instead of staying on to London Terminals. Southern services which stop at East London Line stations also enjoy lighter used services as they've all gone onto the Overground trains which have direct transfer to the tube and DLR. One thing I can say is in many years time, no Overground station at Brixton or Loughborough Junction will eventually hurt the surrounding network. I know both stations would of been expensive due to being on a high level railway but they would of opened up important & effective interchanges, particularly at Loughborough Junction with Thameslink. Brixton Railway Station also needs a good rebuild, such a shabby & dank station. |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 8, 2014 3:53:56 GMT
Despite the East London line extension of the London Overground which has benefited passengers in Forest Hill and Sydenham, the 176 and 185 are still very busy routes into Central London, in particular in the peaks where it can be hard to get a seat past Dulwich Library. Even when Crossrail opens in Woolwich, I still see full to capacity 53's full of people who can't afford Crossrail's fares. The real benefits are really for rail passengers, who'll enjoy the extra capacity on Southeastern services on the Greenwich line as the North Kent commuters alight at Abbey Wood instead of staying on to London Terminals. Southern services which stop at East London Line stations also enjoy lighter used services as they've all gone onto the Overground trains which have direct transfer to the tube and DLR. One thing I can say is in many years time, no Overground station at Brixton or Loughborough Junction will eventually hurt the surrounding network. I know both stations would of been expensive due to being on a high level railway but they would of opened up important & effective interchanges, particularly at Loughborough Junction with Thameslink. Brixton Railway Station also needs a good rebuild, such a shabby & dank station. Couldn't agree more about Brixton Station. Throwback to the 1980's, feels very unsafe. |
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I could reel off a whole list of things that would be desirable to add to the network in this (home for me) patch, which I will probably post here. Later...
