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Post by snoggle on May 30, 2015 13:11:26 GMT
I am looking at Chislehurst where routes pass though. Route 61 - + 12,376 Route 160 - + 84,483 Route 161 - + 357,251 Route 162 - + 188,459 Route 269 - + 65,159 Route 273 - + 69,414 I was right along and think this route 162 def need increase minutes freq. every 20 minutes may not be enough. Route 162 is next second busy buses after route 161 is biggest busy buses. Route 61 is low increase in last five years. I never see this route 61 busy at all apart from school times. Looking at the 162 on my big spreadsheet, which has more years of data than TfL have put in their spreadsheet, then it's had patronage growth for 8 years with no decline. There is also a decline in spare capacity suggesting buses are getting busier with some probably very overloaded indeed. I think you're right that a modest frequency increase is probably needed to add some room. The only problem is that more frequent buses encourage even more people to travel!! Therefore a 15 minute service might make things worse pretty quickly. As an example the more frequent P13 service has meant a 20% increase in ridership in 1 year. That's fairly typical for such a change.
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Post by Deleted on May 30, 2015 14:09:56 GMT
I am looking at Chislehurst where routes pass though. Route 61 - + 12,376 Route 160 - + 84,483 Route 161 - + 357,251 Route 162 - + 188,459 Route 269 - + 65,159 Route 273 - + 69,414 I was right along and think this route 162 def need increase minutes freq. every 20 minutes may not be enough. Route 162 is next second busy buses after route 161 is biggest busy buses. Route 61 is low increase in last five years. I never see this route 61 busy at all apart from school times. Looking at the 162 on my big spreadsheet, which has more years of data than TfL have put in their spreadsheet, then it's had patronage growth for 8 years with no decline. There is also a decline in spare capacity suggesting buses are getting busier with some probably very overloaded indeed. I think you're right that a modest frequency increase is probably needed to add some room. The only problem is that more frequent buses encourage even more people to travel!! Therefore a 15 minute service might make things worse pretty quickly. As an example the more frequent P13 service has meant a 20% increase in ridership in 1 year. That's fairly typical for such a change. Would love to see your spreadsheet, snoggle!
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Post by snoggle on May 30, 2015 17:16:57 GMT
Looking at the 162 on my big spreadsheet, which has more years of data than TfL have put in their spreadsheet, then it's had patronage growth for 8 years with no decline. There is also a decline in spare capacity suggesting buses are getting busier with some probably very overloaded indeed. I think you're right that a modest frequency increase is probably needed to add some room. The only problem is that more frequent buses encourage even more people to travel!! Therefore a 15 minute service might make things worse pretty quickly. As an example the more frequent P13 service has meant a 20% increase in ridership in 1 year. That's fairly typical for such a change. Would love to see your spreadsheet, snoggle! Err I made a stripped down version and tried to attach it to a post on here but it's too large. I'm a bit puzzled because I'm sure I've shared on this forum in an earlier version. Perhaps it just snuck in under the file size limit but the new one has gone over the limit? If anyone wants a copy then send me a personal message asking for it and include a valid E Mail address. The file is in Excel format so you'll need that to open it.
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Post by Deleted on May 30, 2015 20:29:29 GMT
Would love to see your spreadsheet, snoggle! Err I made a stripped down version and tried to attach it to a post on here but it's too large. I'm a bit puzzled because I'm sure I've shared on this forum in an earlier version. Perhaps it just snuck in under the file size limit but the new one has gone over the limit? If anyone wants a copy then send me a personal message asking for it and include a valid E Mail address. The file is in Excel format so you'll need that to open it. This is very impressive!
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Post by southlondonbus on May 31, 2015 9:15:48 GMT
Looks the 13 saw a slight increase taking it to over 5300000. Seems quite a lot of passengers to put on other routes had it been withdrawn?
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Post by Deleted on May 31, 2015 9:24:08 GMT
Interesting where they get the 541 figure from as its a free bus and you don't tap in.
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Post by mondraker275 on May 31, 2015 10:14:38 GMT
Interesting where they get the 541 figure from as its a free bus and you don't tap in. Occassionally, some drivers tap a button on the machine to show the passengers that enter. Also some passengers like me,tap in anyway. This no tapping may explain the reduction in numbers of NB4L routes (except 453) that gained LTs in the period.
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Post by snoggle on Jun 9, 2015 10:12:58 GMT
The draft Annual Report for 2014/15 has been published. It includes the revised annual patronage total which shows a small increase in the total. Interestingly the calculation of bus stats has been changed following a change to the methodology for school journeys. The effect of this is to pull down the totals and TfL have revised the numbers for the last few years. Another poor statistic for kilometres operated which shows a reduction for 2014/15. Even more shocking is the number of planned and unplanned disruptions on the road network - it's increased massively. Buses | 2014/15 | 2013/14 | 2012/13 | 2011/12 | 2010/11 | Passenger journeys (millions)* | 2,385 | 2,382 | 2,311 | 2,320 | | Old methodology | | 2,405 | 2,335 | 2,344 | 2,289 | Kilometres operated (millions) | 489 | 491 | 490 | 490 | 486 | Percentage of schedule operated (per cent) | 97.1 | 97.7 | 97.6 | 97.6 | 97.4 | Excess wait time (high frequency) (minutes) | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Customer satisfaction (score) | 85 | 83 | 82 | 80 | 80 |
*The method for calculating child journeys changed in 2014/15. The figures on the top row show corrected figures between 2011/12 and 2014/15. The figures on the bottom row show uncorrected figures for previous years as published previously. There were two instances of industrial action on the bus network in 2014/15, reducing journeys by around seven million www.tfl.gov.uk/cdn/static/cms/documents/aac-20150616-part-1-item05-annual-report.pdf
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