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Post by snoggle on Jan 16, 2019 0:19:23 GMT
TfL have written a reply to the Goblin User Group: barking-gospeloak.org.uk/documents/20190115_rolling_stock_crisis.pdfSomething interesting to note is that it mentions that some of the LO's other trains are being modified, so that suggests more than one will undergo the shortening treatment should 378232 get the all clear. A decision is expected later this month regarding that. My bet is that three will be shortened to provide a half hourly service as that in theory should not result in any overall capacity reduction. The TfL decision is supposed to be taken this week. Given the 378 4 car can't run until a series of safety critical issues are fixed then if TfL do take a decision this week then it can't be to use that train any time soon. The problems cited on another forum are all related to serious risk issues that will take time for Network Rail to fix or for a mitigation to be agreed between the parties including driver reps. ASLEF certainly will not agree to run a train that has any safety issues such as non working selective door operation / correct side door enable, problems with platform lighting or signal sighting issues. You also won't get ORR sign off either. Things like fixing platform lighting could take months by the time a revised design is worked out, assessed, signed off, procurement for the work undertaken and then implemented and then PTI tests redone. If the 710s are affected in the same way then that's another delay. I'm afraid that TfL response looks out of date by the time it was written. I still can't see where TfL get 4 (remember there has to be a spare unit) 378s to run on the GOBLIN. I also don't see how a half hourly service is remotely acceptable even off peak. It's a disaster at peak times even if the trains are longer. Who on earth is going to wait that long having had years of a much more frequent service? Reverting to a half hourly service (hourly in the evenings back then) takes us back to 2005 service levels under Silverlink.
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Post by snoggle on Jan 16, 2019 0:21:27 GMT
lol at roads, there is hardly any new roads. There needs to be more roads built. Only thing we get is cycle lanes. Plenty of road spending going on outside London. Grayling is promoting a great big near motorway between Oxford and Cambridge while at the same time trying to kill off the East West Rail project that he claims to support. The man is a menace.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 16, 2019 21:06:03 GMT
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Post by redbus on Jan 16, 2019 23:00:51 GMT
Here's a radical thought for you all to shoot down. Get hold of some other electric trains eg 315s and do whatever is necessary to get them in service on the Goblin. Eg add cameras to the train and so on. Keep these trains in service for say the next five years. Meanwhile cancel the order for the 710s with Bombardier and order some other trains that will actually work for delivery in five years time!!!!!
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Post by Eastlondoner62 on Jan 16, 2019 23:19:11 GMT
Here's a radical thought for you all to shoot down. Get hold of some other electric trains eg 315s and do whatever is necessary to get them in service on the Goblin. Eg add cameras to the train and so on. Keep these trains in service for say the next five years. Meanwhile cancel the order for the 710s with Bombardier and order some other trains that will actually work for delivery in five years time!!!!! No thanks we don't need those heaps of trains on the Goblin in the long term. Wouldn't mind them short term as they'd provide a service without causing a whole line shutdown but as long as we do get the 710s eventually. The issue is that someone has to be the first for everything. Someone was going to suffer these problems regardless, it's just unfortunate that it's ended up happening on a line where the current trains are earmarked for someone else. However hopefully once the new technology does bed in it will result in the trains being more reliable and for it to be easier to diagnose any future faults. From buses to planes everything that's first has teething problems, also being in a time of big change in terms of technology has an impact.
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Post by snoggle on Jan 17, 2019 15:04:20 GMT
Here's a radical thought for you all to shoot down. Get hold of some other electric trains eg 315s and do whatever is necessary to get them in service on the Goblin. Eg add cameras to the train and so on. Keep these trains in service for say the next five years. Meanwhile cancel the order for the 710s with Bombardier and order some other trains that will actually work for delivery in five years time!!!!! Right so you throw away brand new trains that will probably be grabbed by another TOC for another part of the country anyway. At some point they will work. You lumber London with old trains that are 40 years old, increasingly unreliable and will become ever harder to maintain due to a shortage of spares. Do you imagine that anyone is spending any money on them or spares at the present time when they are all earmarked for the scrap heap. There are no guarantees that you could fit cameras to them and make them work. The cabs are not designed for them and disturbing internal cables on old trains risks them breaking thus rendering them inoperable or needing a costly further upgrade. Once the leasing co twigged you wanted the 40 year old trains their leasing charge would suddenly rise and probably be as high as a brand new train. That would be a waste of public money and blatant profiteering that TfL could do little about other than not signing the lease. You delay train replacement on the West Anglia lines for however long thus keeping the route overcrowded. The new trains should bring some overcrowding relief as there is more standee space. You cancel service improvements planned on the Watford DC, NLL and ELL routes because 710s are earmarked for that. That leaves people facing full trains and unable to travel at the height of the peaks. You cancel the trains you were buying for the Barking Riverside route leaving that without working trains come 2021. There are no guarantees that a train due for delivery in 5 years will slip miraculously into service without delays. It is an almost certainty that future trains will have to meet new standards and would need new software. So, yes, your [1] plan is entirely in line with the prevailing fashion for coming up with disastrously unworkable plans guaranteed to lead to disaster. [1] not meant personally, just a use of language.
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Post by redbus on Jan 17, 2019 15:38:11 GMT
Here's a radical thought for you all to shoot down. Get hold of some other electric trains eg 315s and do whatever is necessary to get them in service on the Goblin. Eg add cameras to the train and so on. Keep these trains in service for say the next five years. Meanwhile cancel the order for the 710s with Bombardier and order some other trains that will actually work for delivery in five years time!!!!! Right so you throw away brand new trains that will probably be grabbed by another TOC for another part of the country anyway. At some point they will work. You lumber London with old trains that are 40 years old, increasingly unreliable and will become ever harder to maintain due to a shortage of spares. Do you imagine that anyone is spending any money on them or spares at the present time when they are all earmarked for the scrap heap. There are no guarantees that you could fit cameras to them and make them work. The cabs are not designed for them and disturbing internal cables on old trains risks them breaking thus rendering them inoperable or needing a costly further upgrade. Once the leasing co twigged you wanted the 40 year old trains their leasing charge would suddenly rise and probably be as high as a brand new train. That would be a waste of public money and blatant profiteering that TfL could do little about other than not signing the lease. You delay train replacement on the West Anglia lines for however long thus keeping the route overcrowded. The new trains should bring some overcrowding relief as there is more standee space. You cancel service improvements planned on the Watford DC, NLL and ELL routes because 710s are earmarked for that. That leaves people facing full trains and unable to travel at the height of the peaks. You cancel the trains you were buying for the Barking Riverside route leaving that without working trains come 2021. There are no guarantees that a train due for delivery in 5 years will slip miraculously into service without delays. It is an almost certainty that future trains will have to meet new standards and would need new software. So, yes, your [1] plan is entirely in line with the prevailing fashion for coming up with disastrously unworkable plans guaranteed to lead to disaster. [1] not meant personally, just a use of language. A grand answer and what I was looking for..thank you
It was never a serious suggestion just a 'devils advocate' approach that I had been asked about, that I didn't have a good enough answer to, so I posted it here to get such an answer
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Post by ServerKing on Jan 18, 2019 22:09:48 GMT
Could they get around it by introducing more Crossrail trains, then withdrawing a few more class 315 TfL rail trains. Put the 315's on the Stratford-Richmond line, then use the 378's on Gospel Oak-Barking. No they can't. The fundamental problem is the platform / train interface. At present all LO trains have side mounted cameras on the trains that transmit images to screens in the driver's cab. This has been shown to be safer than having cameras / mirrors / monitors on platforms or having crew dispatch of trains. It would take many many months to install cameras and monitors to allow 315s to run. However it would NOT be approved as it is statistically less safe than side mounted cameras. Office of Rail Regulation would not sign off a less safe mode of operation. Therefore everyone should stop proposing the use of older trains - NOT going to happen. There are no more 7 car 345s available because part of the fleet is deployed in West London. Also it was always planned that some 315s would remain in operation through to 2019/2020. They will probably have to run even longer now the overall project has been delayed. This is why the GOBLIN problems are so intractible - you can't bring in old trains as their operation would be less safe than current ones. You can't bring in the new trains because they don't work. Meanwhile the existing trains are earmarked to go elsewhere. This last fact is the killer problem - you can usually keep existing trains in use until new ones stagger into service. Here we have the exception. Responding to a 10 day old post but unless they extend the wires from Acton Central to Richmond, 315s will never happen
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Post by ben on Jan 19, 2019 0:29:19 GMT
Did the TfL decision viz. 378's occur this week?
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Post by snoggle on Jan 19, 2019 1:11:23 GMT
Did the TfL decision viz. 378's occur this week? Not that I can find on Twitter. The following does seem to have happened / been talked about. - a 710 has been doing test runs on the West Coast main line. So far no apparent faults but lots more runs needed to hit the 2,000 mile fault free mileage target. One night achieves about 180 miles so at least another 11 nights needed and test trains can only run Mon-Thurs so that's another 3 weeks gone and only for 1 train. - a suggestion that a 710 has to go to the Velim test track in the Czech Republic for "certification". This is a new issue and will obviously take time to do and it's not exactly an ideal place to access in the middle of Winter given the typical levels of snow fall in Germany, Austria etc. Of course there has recently been very untypical levels of snow that have stopped everything moving. No idea how valid this new requirement is BUT if it is valid then this is yet another cock up by someone. - Seems to be a growing amount of press coverage of the impending loss of trains. - Nothing about a TfL decision about the line's service. Just to make everyone laugh and to reinforce how behind everything is look at this internal Arriva Rail London notice with the original project timeline.
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Post by redbus on Jan 19, 2019 23:12:54 GMT
So, with days to go until the next 172 leaves, what are the realistic possibilities?
1. A reduced service with only 5 trains (for a few weeks until the following 172 leaves)? The half hour gap could perhaps be carefully planned to be against the rush hour as far as possible, perhaps augmented with a bus service. 2. A class 378 is pressed into service assuming this solution is approved. Perhaps a different platform can be used at Barking to get around the signal issue, not sure about the other issues. Driver training probably means that even in the best case of it being cleared to be used, the 172 will leave before sufficient drivers can be trained. 3. Close the line, bus replacement service.
Any other possibilities and what is the most likely?
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Post by snoggle on Jan 19, 2019 23:36:15 GMT
So, with days to go until the next 172 leaves, what are the realistic possibilities?
1. A reduced service with only 5 trains (for a few weeks until the following 172 leaves)? The half hour gap could perhaps be carefully planned to be against the rush hour as far as possible, perhaps augmented with a bus service. 2. A class 378 is pressed into service assuming this solution is approved. Perhaps a different platform can be used at Barking to get around the signal issue, not sure about the other issues. Driver training probably means that even in the best case of it being cleared to be used, the 172 will leave before sufficient drivers can be trained. 3. Close the line, bus replacement service.
Any other possibilities and what is the most likely? 1 is the most likely simply because it involves the least effort. 3 is the second most likely option 2 is weeks / months away which means it almost certainly won't happen.
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Post by vjaska on Jan 20, 2019 0:00:14 GMT
Out of interest, roughly how many people use the Goblin from say Barking beyond Walthamstow or Gospel Oak beyond South Tottenham - the only reason I ask is I've done the whole journey by the two replacement buses plus the Victoria between Walthamstow Central & Seven Sisters once and it takes absolutely forever even with quick drivers and favourable road conditions. Surely, there will patronage loss as a result with those who can, seeking alternative arrangements?
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Post by redbus on Jan 20, 2019 0:14:33 GMT
Out of interest, roughly how many people use the Goblin from say Barking beyond Walthamstow or Gospel Oak beyond South Tottenham - the only reason I ask is I've done the whole journey by the two replacement buses plus the Victoria between Walthamstow Central & Seven Sisters once and it takes absolutely forever even with quick drivers and favourable road conditions. Surely, there will patronage loss as a result with those who can, seeking alternative arrangements? Indeed there would be a large patronage loss as I think happened when there was a bus replacement service during the electrification works. I don't know passenger numbers.
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Post by snoggle on Jan 20, 2019 0:17:23 GMT
Out of interest, roughly how many people use the Goblin from say Barking beyond Walthamstow or Gospel Oak beyond South Tottenham - the only reason I ask is I've done the whole journey by the two replacement buses plus the Victoria between Walthamstow Central & Seven Sisters once and it takes absolutely forever even with quick drivers and favourable road conditions. Surely, there will patronage loss as a result with those who can, seeking alternative arrangements? I've not seen any journey pattern data for the line. However from my low number of observations I'd say the following. - most boardings at Gospel Oak are from other LO services. Not many people start / finish at G Oak. - a lot of people board and alight at Upper Holloway. There is now a discernible number of people who head west from Upper Holloway and take other LO services. Westbound boarders at UH used to be very rare indeed. - Crouch Hill is one of the quieter stations. I've rarely seen large numbers boarding or alighting here - presumably because buses are more frequent and the tube is not far away. - decent numbers alight at Harringay Green Lanes from both directions. I'd say slightly more people head east than west at HGL but that's not from limited observations. - South Tottenham has decent numbers boarding and alighting and many of these people will have boarded or alighted east of Blackhorse Road or at UH / G Oak - Blackhorse Road is stupidly busy because of the Vic Line connection. Boarding demand is more strongly focussed towards Barking but decent numbers head west. More of my journeys go west than east. Obviously peak time demand is horrendous and people who board at BHO will travel to all of the stns east of BHR. - Queens Road is fairly busy but its relatively poor access doesn't help even with the footpath link to the Central. - Leyton Midland Rd / Leytonstone High Road are key stops for people who've boarded at Blackhorse Road on e/b trains. Busy in the peak obviously. stronger focus on w/b jnys than e/b IME. - Wanstead Park is a busy stop with trips generated to / from Harringay / Tottenham / Walthamstow and Leyton. One thing I'm not clear about is how much interchange there is with TfL Rail but I can see this possibly getting very popular in future when the full Crossrail service starts. If it was to made fully accessible then I see a lot of people perhaps making the interchange to reach Crossrail. - Woodgrange Park is similar to Wanstead Park but clearly more emphasis on trips westbound than to Barking. - Clearly Barking is a major traffic objective in its own right but also for interchange. I've never experienced the AM Peak at Barking but I've never known trains be "quiet" on arrival or departure from Barking. If you look at Realtimetrains for AM peak jnys you will see that dwell times because severely extended from Woodgrange Park westwards until Blackhorse Road. Not unusual for trains to be 3-8 mins late depending on how bad things are. Clearly BHR is a major interchange objective but there are obvious district centres every 2 stops or so which generate local short trips and longer ones.
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