2016/17 Budget

[snoggle]

TfL have now published the updated TfL Budget. I assume it was delayed slightly because of the need to time it alongside the Chancellor's announcement about CR2 development funding.

The broad picture for 2016/17, based on comparing the numbers to the last Business Plan 2014/15, isn't wonderful.

London Underground revenue is expected to be down £33m despite rising patronage. Investment is cut on LU, expected kilometrage is down and opex is also expected to fall.

TfL Rail (that is the organisational bit of TfL responsible for Overground, TfL Rail services, DLR and Trams) looks to be doing better. Higher patronage, higher revenue, more kilometrage, lower opex and more investment is forecast.

Buses are not in a good state. TfL have trimmed the forecast kms to be operated by 1m kms to 498 (against 499). Revenue is forecast to be £141m lower than forecast - that's a massive drop. Opex will be down while capex will be higher (I assume to fund the extra NB4Ls just ordered). Expected patronage levels are also way down. The business plan forcast 2,492m pass jnys for 2016/17 but the budget is forecasting only 2,338m pass jnys. The latter is only a modest rise of 15m on the extremely poor 2,323m pass jnys now forecast for 2015/16 (and that is down against the 2015/16 budget number of 2,445m pass jnys). This scale of poor patronage numbers will break the long term trend of patronage increase and will probably mean the England and Wales Bus usage stats for 2015/16 will fall as well (because London has such a big influence on the overall numbers).

[ServerKing]

It's the cycle lanes and roadworks from Utility firms that are putting people off.

[snoggle]

Associated with the new budget is a letter from the DfT to the Mayor about TfL's funding.

content.tfl.gov.uk/spending-review-2015-funding-agreement-letter-march-2016.pdf

Not a lot is said about buses but there is a requirement from the DfT for TfL to deliver better air quality. As part of this the DfT are requiring all buses, coaches, HGVs and vans to be euro6 as a minimum by 2025. There is also a requirement to achieve zero emission taxis, a London wide Clean Air zone by 2025 and other things like the ULEZ. What is interesting is that to date TfL have steadfastly refused to modify the euro5 Boilmasters and have exempted them from the ULEZ requirements. Assuming a 14 year life for the NB4Ls then TfL will have to do something to those early NB4Ls to meet the DfT's demands.

It's worth reading the entire letter to see what the Government's intentions are about TfL's finances. It doesn't make for nice reading.