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Post by snoggle on Apr 5, 2017 10:12:52 GMT
Meanwhile all the rail based modes have increased ridership compared to last year including Tramlink where the fatal crash seems not to have had any enduring impact on system usage. London Overground is way up on last year but a significant chunk of that will be West Anglia feeding through into the numbers for the first time.
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Post by snoggle on Apr 5, 2017 14:39:49 GMT
Looking at the past few years of cumulative bus pass jnys for Periods 1-12 shows the following 2010/11 - 2,1115m 2011/12 - 2,153.3m 2012/13 - 2,148.5m 2013/14 - 2,175.6m 2014/15 - 2,177.7m 2015/16 - 2,154.8m 2016/17 - 2,082.1m So a reasonable increase then plateauing up to 2014/15 with a blip during Olympic Year and then sharp decline.
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Post by snowman on Apr 24, 2017 11:49:41 GMT
It would appear both the TfL Board meeting and Customer service and Op Performance meetings scheduled for May have been postponed or cancelled.
These would have included the bus review (due to falling ridership) that will show TfLs thinking on bus network.
I assume this is election related, but unclear yet if a rescheduled meeting will take place, just after election, or if it will now be on agenda for July meeting (CS&OP is 13th July, TfL Board was 19th July but now includes a note will be rescheduled).
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Post by snoggle on Apr 24, 2017 14:34:09 GMT
It would appear both the TfL Board meeting and Customer service and Op Performance meetings scheduled for May have been postponed or cancelled. These would have included the bus review (due to falling ridership) that will show TfLs thinking on bus network. I assume this is election related, but unclear yet if a rescheduled meeting will take place, just after election, or if it will now be on agenda for July meeting (CS&OP is 13th July, TfL Board was 19th July but now includes a note will be rescheduled). No surprise there - this is purdah in action. Normally TfL schedules around elections because they are known well in advance. This GE is a complete surprise and not helpful on a wide range of fronts if you're trying to conduct business. We won't hear much from TfL or City Hall for weeks and I expect even something like the GOBLIN closures to finish electrification can't be announced formally until after the election. Network Rail are probably "under the kosh" too given they're effectively nationalised.
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Post by redbus on Apr 24, 2017 20:30:27 GMT
I don't like this idea of purdah. People need to know what is going on. An idea is either good or not so good and an election doesn't change that. If something has to be held back because of an election in case of an outcry, then it was probably a bad idea in the first place! Quick rant over, it is what it is!
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Post by snoggle on Apr 24, 2017 23:42:55 GMT
I don't like this idea of purdah. People need to know what is going on. An idea is either good or not so good and an election doesn't change that. If something has to be held back because of an election in case of an outcry, then it was probably a bad idea in the first place! Quick rant over, it is what it is! Unfortunately it was brought in to stop past abuses of politicians doing things "accidentally" (ahem!) that just happened to sway people's opinions about certain policies, other parties or constituency specific issues. I agree it can be a right old pain but it won't be removed until the UK becomes a benevolent Singapore style dictatorship [1] in about 20 years time and then we'll be force fed everything as if we're in North Korea. [1] but without the palm trees, warm weather, tri-axle double deckers and daily thunderstorms.
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Post by snoggle on Apr 29, 2017 18:07:19 GMT
Right the Period 13 data has been added to the Datastore.
Somewhat surprisingly we have seen a bit of a surge, year on year, in Period 13. This year we have 178.4m pass jnys compared to 159.4m last year. P13 is only 1 day longer this year than last year so that is very unlikely to have had an impact. Of course Easter is later this year and will be in Period 1 17/18 so the numbers are not strictly comparable. It is unsafe to try to draw any conclusions from 1 period's worth of data so we need to see how things continue in 2017/18.
The full year total for 2016/17 bus pass jnys (before any adjustments) is 2,261.3m down 52.9m pass jnys on the previous year. This is the lowest total since 2009/10.
Full year numbers for other modes
The Tube is up by 28.6m pass jnys with a total of 1,378m. The DLR is up by 5.3m pass jnys with a total of 122.5m. The Overground is up by 74m with a total of 225.2m The tram network is up by 2.5m with a total of 29.4m. The Dangleway is down by 0.06m trips with a total of 1.48m
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Post by snowman on Apr 30, 2017 7:58:20 GMT
Right the Period 13 data has been added to the Datastore. Somewhat surprisingly we have seen a bit of a surge, year on year, in Period 13. This year we have 178.4m pass jnys compared to 159.4m last year. P13 is only 1 day longer this year than last year so that is very unlikely to have had an impact. Of course Easter is later this year and will be in Period 1 17/18 so the numbers are not strictly comparable. It is unsafe to try to draw any conclusions from 1 period's worth of data so we need to see how things continue in 2017/18. The full year total for 2016/17 bus pass jnys (before any adjustments) is 2,261.3m down 52.9m pass jnys on the previous year. This is the lowest total since 2009/10. Full year numbers for other modesThe Tube is up by 28.6m pass jnys with a total of 1,378m. The DLR is up by 5.3m pass jnys with a total of 122.5m. The Overground is up by 74m with a total of 225.2m The tram network is up by 2.5m with a total of 29.4m. The Dangleway is down by 0.06m trips with a total of 1.48m I wouldn't read to much into the period 13 comparison to last year. In 2016 Easter weekend was included so 2 less working days, and the last week of the month was school holidays. In 2017 there was no holiday period and school holidays generally started April. As many people choose to take days off work when kids are on holiday, could easily account for 20m journeys. I think a much clearer comparison will be available when P1 results are out, by taking combined P13+P1 as the 8 week block will include Easter period in both.
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Post by snoggle on Apr 30, 2017 8:47:45 GMT
]I wouldn't read to much into the period 13 comparison to last year. In 2016 Easter weekend was included so 2 less working days, and the last week of the month was school holidays. In 2017 there was no holiday period and school holidays generally started April. As many people choose to take days off work when kids are on holiday, could easily account for 20m journeys. I think a much clearer comparison will be available when P1 results are out, by taking combined P13+P1 as the 8 week block will include Easter period in both. Yes - which is precisely why I said it was unsafe to draw any conclusions on one period's worth of data and pointed out the issues over period length and the timing of Easter.
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Post by redbus on Apr 30, 2017 11:37:23 GMT
]I wouldn't read to much into the period 13 comparison to last year. In 2016 Easter weekend was included so 2 less working days, and the last week of the month was school holidays. In 2017 there was no holiday period and school holidays generally started April. As many people choose to take days off work when kids are on holiday, could easily account for 20m journeys. I think a much clearer comparison will be available when P1 results are out, by taking combined P13+P1 as the 8 week block will include Easter period in both. Yes - which is precisely why I said it was unsafe to draw any conclusions on one period's worth of data and pointed out the issues over period length and the timing of Easter. I hope that this means passenger numbers are on the way up, but given holidays and the factors mentioned I absolutely agree that no conclusions can be drawn. I look forward to seeing the next P1 figures.
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Post by snoggle on Apr 30, 2017 15:18:15 GMT
Yes - which is precisely why I said it was unsafe to draw any conclusions on one period's worth of data and pointed out the issues over period length and the timing of Easter. I hope that this means passenger numbers are on the way up, but given holidays and the factors mentioned I absolutely agree that no conclusions can be drawn. I look forward to seeing the next P1 figures.
The bus patronage numbers tend to get "adjusted" in arrears anyway - not by huge amounts in the Datastore info. The year end total is always adjusted by TfL hence why you rarely get agreement between the Datastore, what TfL release at route level but aggregated and what is in the Annual Report & Accounts. The number TfL use for official purposes is what goes in the Annual Report - the only issue is when we will see that given that the May Board Meeting which usually approves it is postponed / cancelled because of the *bleep* election.
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Post by snoggle on Jun 2, 2017 8:21:20 GMT
At long last the Period 1 17/18 numbers are out. The bad news continues even allowing for holidays and an odd length period (29 days rather than 28).
Bus pass jnys - 171.9m Tube pass jnys - 104.6m DLR pass jnys - 10.1m Tram pass jnys - 2.1m LO pass jnys - 14.7m
All numbers are down on last year's Period 1 but it was longer so to be expected. For the buses I did a rough and ready average pass jnys per days. The last few years have been higher than 6m jnys per day in period 1. This year's period 1 is below 6m so the "run rate" is continuing to fall. Once the bus cuts come in this month then I expect we will see further decline in numbers in future periods.
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Post by snowman on Jun 2, 2017 8:32:09 GMT
At long last the Period 1 17/18 numbers are out. The bad news continues even allowing for holidays and an odd length period (29 days rather than 28). Bus pass jnys - 171.9m Tube pass jnys - 104.6m DLR pass jnys - 10.1m Tram pass jnys - 2.1m LO pass jnys - 14.7m All numbers are down on last year's Period 1 but it was longer so to be expected. For the buses I did a rough and ready average pass jnys per days. The last few years have been higher than 6m jnys per day in period 1. This year's period 1 is below 6m so the "run rate" is continuing to fall. Once the bus cuts come in this month then I expect we will see further decline in numbers in future periods. Obviously with later Easter than last year, and associated holiday period its best to take period 13 and period 1 totals combined and then compare the 56 day period to previous years. 2011 357.7m journeys 2012 363.0m 2013 358.1m 2014 371.0m 2015 410.9m 2016 348.7m 2017 350.3m so buses journeys (2 periods including Easter) marginally up on last year, but only 85% of 2 years ago. The 0.4% increase on last year may be partly due to hopper ticket.
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Post by snoggle on Jun 2, 2017 8:38:47 GMT
Obviously with later Easter than last year, and associated holiday period its best to take period 13 and period 1 totals combined and then compare the 56 day period to previous years. OK then "obviously" I'll leave the commentary and analysis to you for future periods.
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Post by snoggle on Jun 9, 2017 12:58:47 GMT
The agenda and papers for next week's transport committee meeting have been published. While buses are not being discussed specifically TfL have followed up with answers to various questions when they sat in front of the Committee in Jan. The documents cover an update to issues at Archway with a more general letter from Leon Daniels (app 2), a summary of the decline in patronage on a few routes serving Elephant and Castle (app 2, att 2) and an overview of the budget and expenditure (in the form they used to present to the Committee)(App 2 att 1). There's also a patronage table but it's only got 2015/16 data on it for some odd reason! (Att B). Look at Section 7 and the additional documents listed there via this link www.london.gov.uk/moderngov/ieListDocuments.aspx?CId=173&MId=6330Seems there may be some route / stop tweaks at Archway including an extension of one route to the Whittington Hospital.
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