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Post by snoggle on Jun 28, 2017 22:36:46 GMT
Period 2 modal ridership numbers are now in the London Datastore.
Bus - 182m ↑ Tube - 106m ↑ DLR - 9.4m ↓ Tram - 2.3m ↓ Overground - 14.8m ↑
Arrows show rise or fall compared to same period last year.
The bus number is a tiny (100,000 jnys) increase on last year. If you take a three period average of P13-P2 and compare this year with last there is a tiny uptick this year compared to last year in terms of the total across the 3 periods and also the average per period jnys. At this point it would be unsafe to draw any sort of firm conclusions as to what is happening. You could infer that the drop in patronage may have plateaued but you really need several more periods to draw any sort of firm conclusions. In the P2 Financial Report, that Mr Snowman referred to, TfL seem slightly optimistic that bus speeds may be rising slightly in outer London. Having looked at the bus speed data (TfL publish this each period) then some outer London and even Central London routes are showing a modest improvement. However things are well adrift from where they were 4 years ago - some of the drops in average speeds are extremely bad. No wonder people gave up using buses.
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Post by snowman on Jun 29, 2017 5:14:58 GMT
Period 2 modal ridership numbers are now in the London Datastore. Bus - 182m ↑ Tube - 106m ↑ DLR - 9.4m ↓ Tram - 2.3m ↓ Overground - 14.8m ↑ Arrows show rise or fall compared to same period last year. The bus number is a tiny (100,000 jnys) increase on last year. If you take a three period average of P13-P2 and compare this year with last there is a tiny uptick this year compared to last year in terms of the total across the 3 periods and also the average per period jnys. At this point it would be unsafe to draw any sort of firm conclusions as to what is happening. You could infer that the drop in patronage may have plateaued but you really need several more periods to draw any sort of firm conclusions. In the P2 Financial Report, that Mr Snowman referred to, TfL seem slightly optimistic that bus speeds may be rising slightly in outer London. Having looked at the bus speed data (TfL publish this each period) then some outer London and even Central London routes are showing a modest improvement. However things are well adrift from where they were 4 years ago - some of the drops in average speeds are extremely bad. No wonder people gave up using buses. Thank you snoggle for review. Whilst it appears the fall in journeys might have stopped (although bit too early to be sure), there is now a growing divergence between fares income and journey numbers. Clearly the hopper ticket and fare capping are having an effect. Of course a modest increase in journeys is welcome, but rather useless if they were all free. A non revenue seat is financially same as empty seat (actually could be negative as extra load may be couple of pence extra fuel) To put some figures into perspective the full year 2013-14 shows bus revenue of £1501m and bus subsidy (loss) of £368m, just over £1m per day, well below the current daily loss of £1.9m per day Period 2 journeys (marginally) exceed the 181.6m back in 2010-11 (the earliest year in the datastore), but at the time the network had 8500 buses compared to today, and you don't need to be a genius to work out that operating 12% more buses, will cost roughly 12% more. Virtually same number of passengers means fall of 10% on average number of passengers per bus (note this ignores any change in average distance travelled). The real question is if the network has gained 1000 buses for same number of passengers in 7 years, how do you restore the P&L account, or do you simply cut the pvr by about 900 (allowing 100 spare buses) to reflect demand. Route by route demand will vary so maybe some routes need cuts of 20-30%, whilst others need a small increase. Will be interesting to see which strategy occurs.
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Post by snoggle on Jun 29, 2017 8:07:01 GMT
The real question is if the network has gained 1000 buses for same number of passengers in 7 years, how do you restore the P&L account, or do you simply cut the pvr by about 900 (allowing 100 spare buses) to reflect demand. Route by route demand will vary so maybe some routes need cuts of 20-30%, whilst others need a small increase. Will be interesting to see which strategy occurs. Well there are variants as to what can be done. As TfL have said recently if they can get bus speeds up then they need fewer buses for a given level of service and there is the prospect of increased patronage *if* the link between rising patronage and faster journey times is still there. Alternatively you move resource to where there are crowding issues, assuming the operator can resource a higher service level, or where there are growth prospects. If TfL had their wits about them then adding some new routes or extensions in viable areas might also help but this seems to be off the agenda. The final option is to cut but the danger there, if you make very heavy cuts, is that you alienate whatever users are left to the point where they stop travelling. You are then faced with removing an entire route which gets you into difficult political territory and also breach of TfL's own planning guidelines. Making one route hugely unattractive also risks losing passengers from other services given the way people can and do use more than one local service for their journeys. Once people are walking or using cars or minicabs you don't get them back.
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Post by mondraker275 on Jun 29, 2017 11:17:52 GMT
The real question is if the network has gained 1000 buses for same number of passengers in 7 years, how do you restore the P&L account, or do you simply cut the pvr by about 900 (allowing 100 spare buses) to reflect demand. Route by route demand will vary so maybe some routes need cuts of 20-30%, whilst others need a small increase. Will be interesting to see which strategy occurs. Well there are variants as to what can be done. As TfL have said recently if they can get bus speeds up then they need fewer buses for a given level of service and there is the prospect of increased patronage *if* the link between rising patronage and faster journey times is still there. Alternatively you move resource to where there are crowding issues, assuming the operator can resource a higher service level, or where there are growth prospects. If TfL had their wits about them then adding some new routes or extensions in viable areas might also help but this seems to be off the agenda. The final option is to cut but the danger there, if you make very heavy cuts, is that you alienate whatever users are left to the point where they stop travelling. You are then faced with removing an entire route which gets you into difficult political territory and also breach of TfL's own planning guidelines. Making one route hugely unattractive also risks losing passengers from other services given the way people can and do use more than one local service for their journeys. Once people are walking or using cars or minicabs you don't get them back. Whats with the asterisks around the 'if', why would there not still be that link between faster speeds and increased patronage. As mentioned, there has been slight increases in speed and a slight increase in patronage for that period, which then supports that link. Maybe I have misunderstood your context.
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Post by snoggle on Jun 29, 2017 18:25:45 GMT
Whats with the asterisks around the 'if', why would there not still be that link between faster speeds and increased patronage. As mentioned, there has been slight increases in speed and a slight increase in patronage for that period, which then supports that link. Maybe I have misunderstood your context. Simple answer - I emphasised that point because TfL themselves have publicly stated that despite improvements in bus speeds a number of routes were continuing to lose passengers. TfL have questioned their own "orthodoxy" about the relationship between bus speeds and patronage. At this stage we do not have anything remotely like a trend of improving patronage that can be reliably linked to other factors whether it is better journey times, less congestion, better reliability etc. We need many more months of data to be able to see from the numbers issued to the public whether things are doing better or not. Hope that helps.
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Post by redbus on Jul 1, 2017 17:30:16 GMT
A few points here. Firstly I would expect the number of passengers to start to show small increases now with no financial improvement. The reason is that TfL have started to cut routes forcing people to change buses where previously they had a direct bus(ie Finchley Road and central London changes). If people do what TfL want and change buses there will now be two journeys recorded instead of one with no increase in fares due to the hopper ticket. This to me isn't a real passenger increase, but hopefully this isn't the whole story. I haven't seen much evidence in the case of the Finchley Road changes of this happening, just what seems to be a loss passengers on the corridor, but perhaps overall this could be part of the explanation. I do have a general concern that forcing people to change buses will result in many people abandoning buses for that journey, but hopefully this won't happen.
All things being equal the cost of running the network will remain much the same in real terms, while due to the fares freeze and hopper ticket income in real terms will be down, never mind rise. It is therefore to be expected that the financial loss of the bus network will get worse. On the plus side the Mayor promised there were efficiencies he could deliver which would pay for this and so should be sustainable. At least that's supposed to be plan, but forgive me if I am a little sceptical.
I believe the link between bus speeds and patronage remains, but is complex. As bus journey times increase people will gradually switch away from buses, but as bus speeds get faster patronage won't necessarily return quickly. This is because once passengers get used to another method of travelling they will stick with it until that new method goes wrong, and only then will they try the bus again. If bus speeds rise, passengers who left the buses won't necessarily know that buses are going faster again, and so won't be trying the bus. Some passengers may have tried ride sharing or private hire as a means of travelling and that may well be more convenient, so these passengers will be less inclined to go back to buses. It might take something like a fare increase for private hire to get people to try the bus again. I would also add that bus speeds need to rise much further to get back to the previous speeds to have an impact in any event.
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Post by snoggle on Jul 26, 2017 13:42:01 GMT
Period 3 modal ridership numbers are now on the London Datastore
Bus - 175.5m ↑ Tube - 101.6m ↓ DLR - 9.2m - Tram - 2.2m ↓ Overground - 14.2m ↑
Arrows show rise or fall compared to same period last year. Dash means no change.
So a modest rise for bus journeys in P3 compared to last year. However if you compare P1-3 (and there is a seasonal factor due to Easter) then we are still 14.8m pass jnys lower than last year. If you straddle the year end and cover P13-P3 then the numbers are a tiny bit more favourable for this year - 708.4m pass jnys vs 704m. However that is very small in the context of overall usage. There is no obvious strong uptick so my "layman's" view is that we are still "bumping along at the bottom" of the trend with no discernible short term trend evident.
Oddly LU journeys also seem to have plateaued which makes me wonder if we are seeing an economic impact kicking in. DLR and tram jnys are broadly static yr on yr with Overground seeing an increase.
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Post by snoggle on Aug 14, 2017 22:45:32 GMT
Just been looking at some old photos and saw one of a "Year of the Bus" bus stop roundel. How odd that ever since TfL held the "Year of the Bus" that ridership and performance have declined. It's almost as if they jinxed themselves by having a great big "congratulations" event.
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Post by mondraker275 on Aug 15, 2017 15:05:26 GMT
Just been looking at some old photos and saw one of a "Year of the Bus" bus stop roundel. How odd that ever since TfL held the "Year of the Bus" that ridership and performance have declined. It's almost as if they jinxed themselves by having a great big "congratulations" event. I clocked onto that as well and reflected it on my signature below which I have had for a while. I did add another line on my signature recently to reflect the ongoing demand-supply paradox we have been bombarded with as well.
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Post by snoggle on Aug 19, 2017 10:40:18 GMT
Period 4 modal ridership numbers are now on the London Datastore
Bus - 181.4m ↑ Tube - 109.0m ↑ DLR - 9.6m ↑ Tram - 2.4m ↑ Overground - 14.7m ↑
Arrows show rise or fall compared to same period last year. Dash means no change.
All modes are showing an increase in Period 4. The bus numbers are an increase on last year of 3.9m pass jnys which is still modest. If you take periods 13-4 for this year and compare to last year (covering Easter in both years) there is a very small uptick this year (889.9m vs 881.9m). You're still only talking about an increase of 1,600,000 trips per period (average) which is small scale stuff.
The Tube is effectively seeing no growth at all year on year which is interesting. This must be causing worries at TfL towers given more service volume is being run. DLR and Overground are also seeing increases while tram usage is static (in all cases comparing P13-4 year on year).
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Post by snoggle on Sept 20, 2017 9:15:36 GMT
Period 5 modal ridership numbers are now on the London Datastore
Bus - 154.8m ↓ Tube - 101.0m ↓ DLR - 9.2m ↑ Tram - 2.1m ↑ Overground - 13.7m -
Arrows show rise or fall compared to same period last year. Dash means no change.
All the above numbers are down on Period 4 but that is to be expected as P5 covers the start of the Summer holiday period so numbers always drop between P4 and P5. In terms of year on year changes we need to look at a wider span of periods (P13 - P5) to flatten out holiday variations.
Comparing this year with last buses are up a modest 7.5m pass jnys (tiny really), Tube is down 0.5m pass jnys which suggests a softening of demand given more service volume is being run with the Night tube, DLR is up 1.1m, Tram is up 0.3m and Overground is up 6.0m pass jnys. Therefore the strongest performer is the Overground which is still adding journeys despite engineering works and closures. The more important context here, and not shown in the Datastore info, is how these numbers compare to TfL's own targets. On the assumption that TfL have done their usual trick of expecting more patronage and revenue growth then there is cause for concern given the flat numbers for Buses and Tube as they contribute the bulk of TfL fares revenue. The other services may be showing some modest improvement but their revenue contribution is comparatively small.
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Post by snoggle on Nov 15, 2017 15:30:05 GMT
Period 7 modal ridership numbers are now on the London Datastore
Bus - 186.8m ↓ Tube - 108.6m ↓ DLR - 9.6m - Tram - 2.6m - Overground - 14.4m ↓
Arrows show rise or fall compared to same period last year. Dash means no change.
The decline on buses is very small compared to last year so we seem to be "bouncing along the bottom" but not seeing strong growth. The picture for rail based modes is less encouraging - LU is down 1.8m pass jnys year on year and DLR and trams have plateaued (for the period). Year on year, ignoring Easter holidays, then LU is down 6.6m with the other rail modes seeing negligible change. The economy bites again.
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Post by snowman on Dec 9, 2017 17:27:02 GMT
London datastore has been updated
Period 8 bus journeys 177.7m (176.6 in 2016, 181.2m in 2015, 190.2m in 2014) So small increase in journeys (but as finance report in TfL committees shows drop in yield, fare income similar to last year)
More worrying for TfL will be Underground, DLR and Overground passengers down compared to period 8 last year. What's more last year the Piccadilly line was in meltdown following spate of leaf fall wheel flats, and customers were being told to avoid it, now the service is near normal (and night tube is running on more lines), user numbers have fallen.
Period 8 is from 15 October to 11 Nov so includes school half term week, but no public holidays.
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Post by snoggle on Dec 18, 2017 12:57:00 GMT
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Post by snowman on Dec 18, 2017 18:43:03 GMT
London is losing passengers three times faster than the rest of England. Still not to worry it's only down to roadworks. www.mayorwatch.co.uk/londons-bus-ridership-is-falling-three-times-faster-than-the-rest-of-englands/And the crocodile tears from Ms Pidgeon are a bit pathetic too. She's put her name against more than one letter urging TfL and the Mayor to cut bus services in Central London. Where the heck does she imagine most of the patronage loss is? Woodford? Purley? Ickenham? For (bleeps) sake. Just down to roadworks? Has no-one noticed it might be harder to get people out of cars (in outer London) because buses haven’t kept up with comfort of cars, actually they have, but TfL has opted for specs which don’t want to even try and get people from cars. www.alexander-dennis.com/newsroom/news/2017/december/adl-celebrates-10-000-bus-milestone-with-executive-enviro400/Just look at the photo gallery at bottom of link and start ticking off what London doesn’t get Sunroofs, seat back USB, phone holders, open vista upstairs without grab poles, tables to do work (with USB), leather seats, single seats to actually let someone pass when they get to top of stairs, wood (quality) effect floor, windows that can be seen through because not covered in adverts, information screens..... (ok, some are on a minority of the fleet, but you understand the message)
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