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Post by rj131 on Apr 15, 2019 21:16:38 GMT
The cutting of the 48 means that, for the first time since early horse bus days, there will be no direct bus connection between Leyton, Lea Bridge Road, Clapton and Liverpool Street/London Bridge, which should cause anyone from TfL contemplating the wielding of this long knife to at least pause before the fatal blow. Liverpool Street and Bishopsgate, if not London Bridge, have had connections to Hoe Street in Walthamstow for almost as long with trolleybus route 557, then replacement bus routes. I cannot see how other transport options that have become available in recent decades would have any significant abstraction on such journeys: if there has been a huge decline in bus passenger figures, it must be because TfL have made travelling by bus so unattractive, whether by deliberate policy or default. They should hang their heads in shame. I know you don't need telling about the point I'm about to make but TfL's subtle policy is to shove as many people on the tube, Overground, DLR and Crossrail as possible. It's unstated but it's there because it's the only way they can practically grow revenue as any caps involving rail modes are now high relative to TfL's frozen fares. Buses are very low yield and non surplus generating so are not worth promoting. The 48 has fallen from 69th busiest route in 2012/13 to 135th busiest in 2017/18. Its patronage is about 2 million pass jnys down from its absolute peak in 2008/09. It is the last few years where patronage has fallen steeply. I have compared to other Hackney routes but I'd not be shocked to see something similar on other routes in that borough. We've done the possible reasons for these declines lots of time before but TfL's "alarm bell" tends to get triggered in terms of frequency cuts or route withdrawals when they get multiple years of patronage falls in the hundreds of thousands or even over a million per year. There are a lot of such routes but bizarrely the 38 has had very large falls but is even now relatively unscathed. I assume TfL have decided that Hackney Council may mutiny if that was to be severely reduced. Instead the 48 goes in its entirety despite the 38 losing more ridership (over 6m pas jnys) than the 48's annual patronage (last year 5.7m pass jnys) since 2010. In no way has 6m journeys worth of capacity been taken off the 38. I don't get to Central London very often but the 38s I have seen have been pitifully loaded relative to the very high frequency that is operated. Yes your 38 analysis is absolutely perfect. A lot of 38’s are actually completely and totally empty let alone pitifully loaded!
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Post by redbus on Apr 15, 2019 21:16:49 GMT
Maybe I am in a minority here. I agree that the 11 takes too long because of all the traffic it has to navigate. The route's slowness does nothing to attract passengers only lose them. Chopping the route won't resolve this. What is needed is to speed up the route, bus priority measures etc, so journey times become sensible again. Then the route will become faster and more reliable, attracting more passengers and could even be extended to Shepherds Bush without issue.
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Post by busaholic on Apr 15, 2019 22:03:57 GMT
Maybe I am in a minority here. I agree that the 11 takes too long because of all the traffic it has to navigate. The route's slowness does nothing to attract passengers only lose them. Chopping the route won't resolve this. What is needed is to speed up the route, bus priority measures etc, so journey times become sensible again. Then the route will become faster and more reliable, attracting more passengers and could even be extended to Shepherds Bush without issue. The 11's slide began imo way back when Ken Livingstone was Mayor and was determined to get the northern side of Trafalgar Square pedestrianised, outside the National Gallery: this coincided with deliberate traffic light changes in central London incorporating longer pedestrian phases, even in places where few pedestrians crossed, outside the peaks at least. As a consequence, the Strand (in particular) and other roads radiating from Trafalgar Square became much more clogged during the day and bus journey times increased. It certainly appeared to me that the 11 was impacted significantly by this. Now we have a situation where the City of London seems a permanent no-go area for bus travel, not entirely the Corporation's fault, or even TfL'S, ironic considering the IRA never managed to achieve that with their devastating Saturday morning lorry bomb in 1993. I don't think cutting the route to Victoria was an appropriate response either: instead, as you say, measures to speed it up are what's required and I'd like to see specific routes chosen with this in mind, perhaps starting with the 11, and not just as a P.R. job. It'd require co-operation with Westminster Council, City of London Corp and the utility companies, which is easier said than done, and also two police forces. I'd also like to see a backstop (now where have I heard that word before?) of another route to complement the 11, as the 23 did, over the eastern part of the route, but there's even less chance of that than anything else. The 9 would be my choice, not just for old times' sake. I wouldn't, though, extend the 11 any further than Fulham Broadway.
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Post by vjaska on Apr 15, 2019 22:47:52 GMT
Did the 45 end to end today before it's too late. I have to say the busiest section of the route was Brixton Hill-Camberwell. Most banks of seats were taken (this was on the upper deck) and I was quite impressed with the loading for 2pm on a Monday afternnon. Passengers were thinning out as we went up Walworth Road to the point where the top deck had 8 people leaving Elephant and Castle. The traffic on Blackfriars Road was apalling, obviously the Extinction Rebellion protest on Waterloo Bridge displaced a lot of traffic, there was a never ending stream of cars coming out of The Cut. Many people asked the driver to let them off as our bus was going nowhere, we took around 10-15 minutes to get between St George's Circus and Southwark Station because of all the congestion going up towards Blackfriars Bridge. Meanwhile the 63 infront of us was picking up most of the punters who wanted the City and King's Cross. I admit this trip was off peak and am prepared to be proven wrong but it seems the 45 is a fresh air carrying route. Its not for me to say whether the route is needed north of the Elephant during rush hour but from what I saw today, few people will miss the 45 north of the Elephant and one Elephant-King's Cross route is sufficient. However, the 63 should get a frequency increase because it will have slack to pick up once the 45 is gone. I think turfing 45 passengers off on Newington Causeway is a decision TFL made in the hope passengers for King's Cross won't bother walking across to London Road for the 63 and will instead just get on the Northern Line. The interchange at Elephant is poor. It is understandable that TFL are moving the 171 to the Lambeth Road stand to provide same stop interchange predominantly for the 68 but routes from Elephant to Waterloo are in no short supply. That logic should have been transferred to the 45 so passnegers who want King's Cross can transfer on to the 63 but TFL are expecting people to change to the 40 elsewhere with no regard for passengers who want to continue to King's Cross. Let us not forget Gray's Inn Road commuters who get a very raw deal out of the 45 cut. They'll have to get the 17 to Farringdon Street, then the 40/63 to Elephant then te 45 to their destination. No one is going to bother doing that Yes the 45 is pretty much a fresh air route, north of E&C it's only really needed during peak hours and at other times the existing 63 service is more than adequate and I can't see that changing when Crossrail opens. I suspect it was seen as too controversial to withdraw the whole service in one go and the rather pointless E&C to Clapham Park will continue but it's surely doomed to withdrawl at a later date? May as well withdraw the entire route and extend the 118 to Camberwell Green to maintain the hospital link. All a far cry from the halcyon days of the 45 when it went all the way from Archway to South Kensington. I'm afraid your completely wrong - unlike yourself, I've regularly used the route for over 20 years and it's still important as ever. As I've explained to you multiple times, extending the 118 does not maintain the important link from the doctors to Kings College Hospital and if the whole route was withdrawn, I'd have to change buses - now I don't know if you've ever had to travel from the doctors straight to hospital before when your unwell but I have and believe me, it's not a great experience. When I had pneumonia last year, having the direct link the 45 brings to my doctors was a lifesaver given how weak I was at the time. The rest of the route does gives vital assistance to the busy Coldharbour Lane corridor and there are people who use the route to travel across Elephant which won't be no longer possible. It would ideal if rather than completely ignoring the local people views as you have done on several occasions on this forum, you would take time to listen to what they have to say instead
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Post by vjaska on Apr 15, 2019 22:50:59 GMT
Maybe I am in a minority here. I agree that the 11 takes too long because of all the traffic it has to navigate. The route's slowness does nothing to attract passengers only lose them. Chopping the route won't resolve this. What is needed is to speed up the route, bus priority measures etc, so journey times become sensible again. Then the route will become faster and more reliable, attracting more passengers and could even be extended to Shepherds Bush without issue. Shepherds Bush isn't doable without a substantial amount of bus priority measures or a significant reduction in overall traffic - chopping the 11 up is sadly the only way it can personally be done. I don't take pleasure in chopping up big routes but when no one is serious about tackling congestion, then this is what happens
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Post by rj131 on Apr 15, 2019 23:00:14 GMT
Maybe I am in a minority here. I agree that the 11 takes too long because of all the traffic it has to navigate. The route's slowness does nothing to attract passengers only lose them. Chopping the route won't resolve this. What is needed is to speed up the route, bus priority measures etc, so journey times become sensible again. Then the route will become faster and more reliable, attracting more passengers and could even be extended to Shepherds Bush without issue. Shepherds Bush isn't doable without a substantial amount of bus priority measures or a significant reduction in overall traffic - chopping the 11 up is sadly the only way it can personally be done. I don't take pleasure in chopping up big routes but when no one is serious about tackling congestion, then this is what happens The funny thing is though is that the 11 isn’t even that big it’s only 7 miles long but the appalling traffic just makes it seem like an enormous route! The 11 has a bigger end to end running time than the 140 which is nearly twice as long!
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Post by vjaska on Apr 16, 2019 0:24:00 GMT
Shepherds Bush isn't doable without a substantial amount of bus priority measures or a significant reduction in overall traffic - chopping the 11 up is sadly the only way it can personally be done. I don't take pleasure in chopping up big routes but when no one is serious about tackling congestion, then this is what happens The funny thing is though is that the 11 isn’t even that big it’s only 7 miles long but the appalling traffic just makes it seem like an enormous route! The 11 has a bigger end to end running time than the 140 which is nearly twice as long! Indeed and the 140 sees it's own fair share of traffic in places - when I was doing my ticking off routes end to end stuff, the 11 was one of the most annoying to do as I had two failed attempts due to time constraints whilst my successful one involved two buses (we got turned at St. Paul's) and horrendous amounts of traffic that left the whole journey at not far over 2 hours.
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Post by sid on Apr 16, 2019 4:05:09 GMT
Yes the 45 is pretty much a fresh air route, north of E&C it's only really needed during peak hours and at other times the existing 63 service is more than adequate and I can't see that changing when Crossrail opens. I suspect it was seen as too controversial to withdraw the whole service in one go and the rather pointless E&C to Clapham Park will continue but it's surely doomed to withdrawl at a later date? May as well withdraw the entire route and extend the 118 to Camberwell Green to maintain the hospital link. All a far cry from the halcyon days of the 45 when it went all the way from Archway to South Kensington. I'm afraid your completely wrong - unlike yourself, I've regularly used the route for over 20 years and it's still important as ever. As I've explained to you multiple times, extending the 118 does not maintain the important link from the doctors to Kings College Hospital and if the whole route was withdrawn, I'd have to change buses - now I don't know if you've ever had to travel from the doctors straight to hospital before when your unwell but I have and believe me, it's not a great experience. When I had pneumonia last year, having the direct link the 45 brings to my doctors was a lifesaver given how weak I was at the time. The rest of the route does gives vital assistance to the busy Coldharbour Lane corridor and there are people who use the route to travel across Elephant which won't be no longer possible. It would ideal if rather than completely ignoring the local people views as you have done on several occasions on this forum, you would take time to listen to what they have to say instead Your experience seems to differ from that of others, from what I see of the 45 it's never busy off peak and it's not uncommon to see buses passing through E&C virtually empty in the middle of the day. Replacing the southern end of it with the 118 gives more of Streatham a link to the hospital and to Camberwell, it would just be a short section of the South Circular that loses that link.
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Post by southlondonbus on Apr 16, 2019 5:55:16 GMT
Terminating a route at Elephant doesn't mean it doesn't have any purpose. Look at the 155, 333, 363 and 468. All have purpose and are busy despite not entering central London and I think the 45 will be the same.
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Post by sid on Apr 16, 2019 6:44:05 GMT
Terminating a route at Elephant doesn't mean it doesn't have any purpose. Look at the 155, 333, 363 and 468. All have purpose and are busy despite not entering central London and I think the 45 will be the same. What's left of the 45 will have little purpose as it duplicates the 35, which is being increased, apart from the Clapham Park bit. There is unlikely to be any end to end traffic as the 133/333 are quicker between E&C and Streatham Hill, the only time it's likely to see significant usage will be in the event of disruption to other routes.
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Post by rj131 on Apr 16, 2019 7:03:23 GMT
The funny thing is though is that the 11 isn’t even that big it’s only 7 miles long but the appalling traffic just makes it seem like an enormous route! The 11 has a bigger end to end running time than the 140 which is nearly twice as long! Indeed and the 140 sees it's own fair share of traffic in places - when I was doing my ticking off routes end to end stuff, the 11 was one of the most annoying to do as I had two failed attempts due to time constraints whilst my successful one involved two buses (we got turned at St. Paul's) and horrendous amounts of traffic that left the whole journey at not far over 2 hours. Do it at like 5 o’clock on a Sunday morning shouldn’t be an issue then
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Post by dennistas on Apr 16, 2019 14:53:20 GMT
Well according to a staff member that works at T, once the 48 is axed the 55s reliability will improve. It's handy that from Cambridge Heath and Hackney Road you will have the 388 to London Bridge I guess.
I don't know if many will agree with this but time will tell...
I would also say that the 55 will have a reduce in frequency to every 8 - 10 mins. Will be interesting to see what happens to the N55 as the duties on the route start off as a 55 before starting as a Night bus.
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Post by rif153 on Apr 16, 2019 14:54:24 GMT
I would also say that the 55 will have a reduce in frequency to every 8 - 10 mins What makes you say that?
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Post by dennistas on Apr 16, 2019 14:56:10 GMT
I would also say that the 55 will have a reduce in frequency to every 8 - 10 mins What makes you say that? Possibly as stand space at Central could be limited unless extra buses will stand on the other side and the timings are planned so as one comes in, one goes out!
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Post by rif153 on Apr 16, 2019 14:57:52 GMT
Possibly as stand space at Central could be limited unless extra buses will stand on the other side and the timings are planned so as one comes in, one goes out! Presumably there won't be any Baker's Arms shorts?
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