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Post by busboy17 on Apr 13, 2019 1:16:12 GMT
Its supposed to be 25%, which Go Ahead are currently bumping up to. Here is a list of the other operators current percentages: Abellio - 8.03% CT Plus - 1.68% Metroline - 17.86% (This has actually dropped - It was on 18-19 not long ago) RATP - 12.20% Stagecoach - 12.40% Sullivan Buses - 0.73% Tower Transit - 4.34% Arriva currently own 18.23% (So currently 2nd place, just above Metroline by roughly 1%), so unless 1 company swoops in and buys the whole lot, I can see it just being divided up.
I could see companies such as Rotala, Nat Ex and Transdev potentially being interested into coming into/re-entering the London bus market. I could see Stagecoach being interested in some of the East London depots such as AE, DX, GY etc. I could also see companies such as Abellio being interested in some of the South London depots such as TC, BN etc. Metroline may even jump in, in North London and take depots such as WN. Tbh it will be interesting to see what does happen, whether Arriva is just sold as a brand to another company or whether it is broken up and the London operation split up.I also wonder what the chances of an investment firm picking the whole lot up, although that didn't go terribly well last time that happened to a certain London operator  I'm not gonna lie would love to see first take over the dartford or BN garage but myths are myths for a reason also tbh I'd love tower transit to come to south but if Arriva does leave I wonder who'd control the 73,38,149 and 48 not to mention the 2 and 468 |
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Post by snowman on Apr 13, 2019 5:13:14 GMT
yep there is, not sure what it is exactly but there is no way Go ahead would be aloud to take over. Its supposed to be 25%, which Go Ahead are currently bumping up to. Here is a list of the other operators current percentages: Abellio - 8.03% CT Plus - 1.68% Metroline - 17.86% (This has actually dropped - It was on 18-19 not long ago) RATP - 12.20% Stagecoach - 12.40% Sullivan Buses - 0.73% Tower Transit - 4.34% Arriva currently own 18.23% (So currently 2nd place, just above Metroline by roughly 1%), so unless 1 company swoops in and buys the whole lot, I can see it just being divided up.
I could see companies such as Rotala, Nat Ex and Transdev potentially being interested into coming into/re-entering the London bus market. I could see Stagecoach being interested in some of the East London depots such as AE, DX, GY etc. I could also see companies such as Abellio being interested in some of the South London depots such as TC, BN etc. Metroline may even jump in, in North London and take depots such as WN. Tbh it will be interesting to see what does happen, whether Arriva is just sold as a brand to another company or whether it is broken up and the London operation split up.I would guess they would like to sell it as a whole entity, however if another Operator wanted one or two garages for a decent price could easily sell those off. However wouldn’t want to sell too many good bits as the remainder would be unattractive. Can’t see TfL being too enthusiastic about other London Operators cherry picking selected garages to create local monopolies. |
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Post by SILENCED on Apr 13, 2019 7:12:54 GMT
How soon will we find out if Arriva definately leave London? AFAIK it won't be in the foreseeable future and nothing has been confirmed as yet! Arriva wont be leaving London ... all that is happening is DB want to sell Arriva as a whole ... all 14 countries. What the new owner then does,or if it becomes indepedendant no one knows. If they do get rid of smaller units it will be part of a secondary sale ... lets see what happens with the initial disposal before all getting excited |
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Post by dennistas on Apr 13, 2019 12:59:56 GMT
How soon will we find out if Arriva definately leave London? AFAIK it won't be in the foreseeable future and nothing has been confirmed as yet! Arriva wont be leaving London ... all that is happening is DB want to sell Arriva as a whole ... all 14 countries. What the new owner then does,or if it becomes indepedendant no one knows. If they do get rid of smaller units it will be part of a secondary sale ... lets see what happens with the initial disposal before all getting excited Thanks for confirming. For a second I thought that Arriva would of stopped bidding for routes and etc... |
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Post by SILENCED on Apr 13, 2019 13:14:38 GMT
Arriva wont be leaving London ... all that is happening is DB want to sell Arriva as a whole ... all 14 countries. What the new owner then does,or if it becomes indepedendant no one knows. If they do get rid of smaller units it will be part of a secondary sale ... lets see what happens with the initial disposal before all getting excited Thanks for confirming. For a second I thought that Arriva would of stopped bidding for routes and etc... A lot will depend on the new owners ... they MAY decide to dispose of some operations ... they MAY on the other hand decide to expand through further acquisitions ... trouble is no one knows at present and doubt will we know any more for 1-2 months |
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Post by Eastlondoner62 on Apr 15, 2019 11:19:24 GMT
Copied over from the Speculation thread as I think my response will be more relevant here Estimates for Arriva routes: DX: 150 - transferred to Stagecoach East London (BK) 173 - transferred to Go Ahead London (RR) 175 - transferred to Go Ahead London (RR) 325 - transferred to Go Ahead London (SI) 368 - transferred to Stagecoach East London (BK) AR: 41/123/149/230/243 - transferred to Go Ahead London (NP) EC: 158 - transferred back to Stagecoach East London (WH) 259 - transferred to Go Ahead London (NP) AE: 78 - transferred to Go Ahead 106 - transferred to CT Plus (HK) 254 - transferred to Ct Plus (HK) I'm going to guess whoever buys Arriva will keep AR, EC and AE as they are along with the routes in them. DX is something that I've been thinking about, the Barking Riverside development will eventually lead to a road being built right through the site where DX currently it and I know there's been talk in the past of the garage closing because of this. I wonder if that will lead to any buyer of the routes there being local and transferring the routes into already existing garages. However that will almost certainly be Stagecoach and Go Ahead and will basically render only two competitors in this area for miles. |
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Post by dennistas on Apr 15, 2019 11:29:25 GMT
Copied over from the Speculation thread as I think my response will be more relevant here Estimates for Arriva routes: DX: 150 - transferred to Stagecoach East London (BK) 173 - transferred to Go Ahead London (RR) 175 - transferred to Go Ahead London (RR) 325 - transferred to Go Ahead London (SI) 368 - transferred to Stagecoach East London (BK) AR: 41/123/149/230/243 - transferred to Go Ahead London (NP) EC: 158 - transferred back to Stagecoach East London (WH) 259 - transferred to Go Ahead London (NP) AE: 78 - transferred to Go Ahead 106 - transferred to CT Plus (HK) 254 - transferred to Ct Plus (HK) I'm going to guess whoever buys Arriva will keep AR, EC and AE as they are along with the routes in them. DX is something that I've been thinking about, the Barking Riverside development will eventually lead to a road being built right through the site where DX currently it and I know there's been talk in the past of the garage closing because of this. I wonder if that will lead to any buyer of the routes there being local and transferring the routes into already existing garages. However that will almost certainly be Stagecoach and Go Ahead and will basically render only two competitors in this area for miles. Sorry for sounding nuts but I fully can't understand what is/ or what is likely to happen! Looking at what First done 6/7 years ago by leaving London just looks like Arriva will do the same but happy to be corrected  . I didn't know that Barking Riverside's development will run through DX, when will that happen if you know? We have room at BK and RR do at Go Ahead as far as I'm aware. |
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Post by Eastlondoner62 on Apr 15, 2019 11:36:31 GMT
Copied over from the Speculation thread as I think my response will be more relevant here I'm going to guess whoever buys Arriva will keep AR, EC and AE as they are along with the routes in them. DX is something that I've been thinking about, the Barking Riverside development will eventually lead to a road being built right through the site where DX currently it and I know there's been talk in the past of the garage closing because of this. I wonder if that will lead to any buyer of the routes there being local and transferring the routes into already existing garages. However that will almost certainly be Stagecoach and Go Ahead and will basically render only two competitors in this area for miles. Sorry for sounding nuts but I fully can't understand what is/ or what is likely to happen! Looking at what First done 6/7 years ago by leaving London just looks like Arriva will do the same but happy to be corrected . I didn't know that Barking Riverside's development will run through DX, when will that happen if you know? We have room at BK and RR do at Go Ahead as far as I'm aware. Yes, exactly. I don't see AR, EC and AE routes being split up and sent to other operator garages as the new buyer would probably just take all the garages along with their routes. As for Barking Riverside, the proposed EL4 has an option to run through a newly built road going through the industrial area where DX currently stands taking it from Renwick Road to the Lodge Avenue flyover. There is another option which involves an extension to Renwick Road, however that would go across the A13 and I don't see that happening when previously the traffic lights there used to cause tailbacks for miles so they were removed. |
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Post by dennistas on Apr 15, 2019 11:39:56 GMT
Sorry for sounding nuts but I fully can't understand what is/ or what is likely to happen! Looking at what First done 6/7 years ago by leaving London just looks like Arriva will do the same but happy to be corrected . I didn't know that Barking Riverside's development will run through DX, when will that happen if you know? We have room at BK and RR do at Go Ahead as far as I'm aware. Yes, exactly. I don't see AR, EC and AE routes being split up and sent to other operator garages as the new buyer would probably just take all the garages along with their routes. As for Barking Riverside, the proposed EL4 has an option to run through a newly built road going through the industrial area where DX currently stands taking it from Renwick Road to the Lodge Avenue flyover. There is another option which involves an extension to Renwick Road, however that would go across the A13 and I don't see that happening when previously the traffic lights there used to cause tailbacks for miles so they were removed. Thanks for explaining, now I have a better understanding. I'm keen to see if only 1 buyer takes the whole company and they continue as Arriva, or like when First left different operators like Metroline, TT and Go Ahead bought the garages separately. |
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Post by SILENCED on Apr 15, 2019 11:48:19 GMT
Copied over from the Speculation thread as I think my response will be more relevant here I'm going to guess whoever buys Arriva will keep AR, EC and AE as they are along with the routes in them. DX is something that I've been thinking about, the Barking Riverside development will eventually lead to a road being built right through the site where DX currently it and I know there's been talk in the past of the garage closing because of this. I wonder if that will lead to any buyer of the routes there being local and transferring the routes into already existing garages. However that will almost certainly be Stagecoach and Go Ahead and will basically render only two competitors in this area for miles. Sorry for sounding nuts but I fully can't understand what is/ or what is likely to happen! Looking at what First done 6/7 years ago by leaving London just looks like Arriva will do the same but happy to be corrected . I didn't know that Barking Riverside's development will run through DX, when will that happen if you know? We have room at BK and RR do at Go Ahead as far as I'm aware. Once again Arriva have made no announcement they are leaving the London market! |
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Post by dennistas on Apr 15, 2019 11:52:55 GMT
Sorry for sounding nuts but I fully can't understand what is/ or what is likely to happen! Looking at what First done 6/7 years ago by leaving London just looks like Arriva will do the same but happy to be corrected . I didn't know that Barking Riverside's development will run through DX, when will that happen if you know? We have room at BK and RR do at Go Ahead as far as I'm aware. Once again Arriva have made no announcement they are leaving the London market! So what is all these discussions about Arriva selling up? Obviously they are leaving? |
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Post by jordzjohn123 on Apr 15, 2019 12:11:20 GMT
Once again Arriva have made no announcement they are leaving the London market! So what is all these discussions about Arriva selling up? Obviously they are leaving? DB just want to sell Arriva that's all, it hasn't mentioned anything about Arriva leaving London |
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Post by dennistas on Apr 15, 2019 12:13:51 GMT
So what is all these discussions about Arriva selling up? Obviously they are leaving? DB just want to sell Arriva that's all, it hasn't mentioned anything about Arriva leaving London I gather that but if DB sell Arriva, what will it be called & who are they likely to sell to? I need a clear explanation Thanks |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 15, 2019 12:17:13 GMT
DB just want to sell Arriva that's all, it hasn't mentioned anything about Arriva leaving London I gather that but if DB sell Arriva, what will it be called & who are they likely to sell to? I need a clear explanation Thanks Nothing has been confirmed it's just speculation at the moment. Think you might have a very long wait for any answers and even longer for a sale to happen maybe even a few years. |
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Post by jordzjohn123 on Apr 15, 2019 12:17:21 GMT
DB just want to sell Arriva that's all, it hasn't mentioned anything about Arriva leaving London I gather that but if DB sell Arriva, what will it be called & who are they likely to sell to? I need a clear explanation Thanks We don't know yet but time will tell |
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