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Post by ilovelondonbuses on Jan 24, 2023 23:48:51 GMT
Update 24/01/2023
Removed the 119/264 batch of Ees from the Go-Ahead London lists as all new buses (apart from Ee75) have entered service. Also, added the B13's electrics fleet codes to the Go-Ahead London list, these vehicles are currently being delivered.
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Post by ilovelondonbuses on Jan 28, 2023 23:31:47 GMT
Update 28/01/2023
Following yesterday's tender results, I have added routes 157 and 363 to the order lists in the Go-Ahead London and Abellio London sections respectively.
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Post by Eastlondoner62 on Jan 29, 2023 13:45:01 GMT
Interestingly we seem to have a case of an extraordinary amount of electrics now awaiting order and delivery. I wonder how manufacturers will be affected. We are currently awaiting orders for these amounts
Abellio Single Decker: 23 Abellio Double Decker: 7 Total: 30
Arriva Single Decker: 3 Arriva Double Decker: 47 Total: 50
Go Ahead Single Decker: 89 Go Ahead Double Decker: 83 Total: 173
Metroline Single Decker: 28 Metroline Double Decker: 53 Total: 81
Stagecoach Single Decker: 19 Stagecoach Double Decker: 46 Total: 65
It's likely that orders will need to be split a lot more vigorously among manufacturers, especially considering this list doesn't include the monstrous GAL order that ADL are currently working through, and MCV and Wright have some orders already placed. Will be interesting to see where they'll go.
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Post by snowman on Jan 29, 2023 13:48:31 GMT
Interestingly we seem to have a case of an extraordinary amount of electrics now awaiting order and delivery. I wonder how manufacturers will be affected. We are currently awaiting orders for these amounts Abellio Single Decker: 23 Abellio Double Decker: 7 Total: 30 Arriva Single Decker: 3 Arriva Double Decker: 47 Total: 50 Go Ahead Single Decker: 89 Go Ahead Double Decker: 83 Total: 173 Metroline Single Decker: 28 Metroline Double Decker: 53 Total: 81 Stagecoach Single Decker: 19 Stagecoach Double Decker: 46 Total: 65 It's likely that orders will need to be split a lot more vigorously among manufacturers, especially considering this list doesn't include the monstrous GAL order that ADL are currently working through, and MCV and Wright have some orders already placed. Will be interesting to see where they'll go. The part that is unusual (at least for last 20 or 30 years) is how small a proportion of orders nationally London is nowadays. 20 years ago almost everyone was taking secondhand ex London buses, so new bus market in London was very important . Then TfL did it's own thing with specs and others started ordering direct as TfL spec wasn't ideal for provincial operations. The current order list above is only about third of the years when London took 1000+ new buses (it happened in 2009, 2012, 2016, 2017) Haven't done an exact count up, but if you add in Ireland and Northern Ireland, there is something like 1500 electric buses on order for outside London. So London is only about fifth of the orders. There seems to be an effective limit on number of batteries available (and of course many other countries want batteries for their buses too), so I suspect that manufacturers like ADL and Wrightbus cannot get anywhere near the previous max output of 1000+ buses per year each.
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Post by WH241 on Jan 29, 2023 14:20:53 GMT
Interestingly we seem to have a case of an extraordinary amount of electrics now awaiting order and delivery. I wonder how manufacturers will be affected. We are currently awaiting orders for these amounts Abellio Single Decker: 23 Abellio Double Decker: 7 Total: 30 Arriva Single Decker: 3 Arriva Double Decker: 47 Total: 50 Go Ahead Single Decker: 89 Go Ahead Double Decker: 83 Total: 173 Metroline Single Decker: 28 Metroline Double Decker: 53 Total: 81 Stagecoach Single Decker: 19 Stagecoach Double Decker: 46 Total: 65 It's likely that orders will need to be split a lot more vigorously among manufacturers, especially considering this list doesn't include the monstrous GAL order that ADL are currently working through, and MCV and Wright have some orders already placed. Will be interesting to see where they'll go. The part that is unusual (at least for last 20 or 30 years) is how small a proportion of orders nationally London is nowadays. 20 years ago almost everyone was taking secondhand ex London buses, so new bus market in London was very important . Then TfL did it's own thing with specs and others started ordering direct as TfL spec wasn't ideal for provincial operations. The current order list above is only about third of the years when London took 1000+ new buses (it happened in 2009, 2012, 2016, 2017) Haven't done an exact count up, but if you add in Ireland and Northern Ireland, there is something like 1500 electric buses on order for outside London. So London is only about fifth of the orders. There seems to be an effective limit on number of batteries available (and of course many other countries want batteries for their buses too), so I suspect that manufacturers like ADL and Wrightbus cannot get anywhere near the previous max output of 1000+ buses per year each. With the sheer amount of orders from London and elsewhere it seems very unlikely TfL services will be able to go fully electric by 2030. I know it’s 7 years away but still…
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Post by vjaska on Jan 29, 2023 14:25:33 GMT
The part that is unusual (at least for last 20 or 30 years) is how small a proportion of orders nationally London is nowadays. 20 years ago almost everyone was taking secondhand ex London buses, so new bus market in London was very important . Then TfL did it's own thing with specs and others started ordering direct as TfL spec wasn't ideal for provincial operations. The current order list above is only about third of the years when London took 1000+ new buses (it happened in 2009, 2012, 2016, 2017) Haven't done an exact count up, but if you add in Ireland and Northern Ireland, there is something like 1500 electric buses on order for outside London. So London is only about fifth of the orders. There seems to be an effective limit on number of batteries available (and of course many other countries want batteries for their buses too), so I suspect that manufacturers like ADL and Wrightbus cannot get anywhere near the previous max output of 1000+ buses per year each. With the sheer amount of orders from London and elsewhere it seems very unlikely TfL services will be able to go fully electric by 2030. I know it’s 7 years away but still… I thought the target was mid 2030’s?
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Post by wirewiper on Jan 29, 2023 14:28:08 GMT
The part that is unusual (at least for last 20 or 30 years) is how small a proportion of orders nationally London is nowadays. 20 years ago almost everyone was taking secondhand ex London buses, so new bus market in London was very important . Then TfL did it's own thing with specs and others started ordering direct as TfL spec wasn't ideal for provincial operations. The current order list above is only about third of the years when London took 1000+ new buses (it happened in 2009, 2012, 2016, 2017) Haven't done an exact count up, but if you add in Ireland and Northern Ireland, there is something like 1500 electric buses on order for outside London. So London is only about fifth of the orders. There seems to be an effective limit on number of batteries available (and of course many other countries want batteries for their buses too), so I suspect that manufacturers like ADL and Wrightbus cannot get anywhere near the previous max output of 1000+ buses per year each. With the sheer amount of orders from London and elsewhere it seems very unlikely TfL services will be able to go fully electric by 2030. I know it’s 7 years away but still… TfL's target is currently 2034, but TfL has stated that with Government support this could be brought forward to 2030. Government could also support the UK's bus manufacturers to increase production of zero-emisson vehicles by investing in production facilities and employment training programmes.
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Post by WH241 on Jan 29, 2023 14:33:59 GMT
With the sheer amount of orders from London and elsewhere it seems very unlikely TfL services will be able to go fully electric by 2030. I know it’s 7 years away but still… TfL's target is currently 2034, but TfL has stated that with Government support this could be brought forward to 2030. Government could also support the UK's bus manufacturers to increase production of zero-emisson vehicles by investing in production facilities and employment training programmes. I forgot to mention 2030 was the earlier target date I my post.
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Post by DE20106 on Jan 29, 2023 15:41:55 GMT
With the sheer amount of orders from London and elsewhere it seems very unlikely TfL services will be able to go fully electric by 2030. I know it’s 7 years away but still… TfL's target is currently 2034, but TfL has stated that with Government support this could be brought forward to 2030. Government could also support the UK's bus manufacturers to increase production of zero-emisson vehicles by investing in production facilities and employment training programmes. Even still an extra four years still seems rather trivial! It would also seem to me that instead of ordering from other manufacturers, companies like RATP and Stagecoach would probably rather stay loyal to their preferred manufacturer and just wait a while for them to be ready to take their order rather than go elsewhere. I would imagine Optare were been rubbing their hands together in Nov 2020 when the 49, 63, 132, 160 and 180 were announced with new electrics and ADL was swamped with orders from RATP, and Optare were the only other manufacturer of electric DDs at the time. But in the end they got shunned completely and everyone just went with ADL and sat tight for the orders to eventually get produced. ADL will probably need to eventually open another factory at this rate to keep up with demand, but may seem a little futile if they can’t get the batteries in quick enough. I would imagine demand will soar further still when the new integral E400 and E100 EVs hit the market.
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Post by snowman on Jan 29, 2023 18:36:20 GMT
With the sheer amount of orders from London and elsewhere it seems very unlikely TfL services will be able to go fully electric by 2030. I know it’s 7 years away but still… TfL's target is currently 2034, but TfL has stated that with Government support this could be brought forward to 2030. Government could also support the UK's bus manufacturers to increase production of zero-emisson vehicles by investing in production facilities and employment training programmes. The tender awards 2 days ago, did include two routes ending November 2030 with hybrids, there was also a route ending early 2031 (route 228 with new electric buses). TfL are effectively on the cusp of having to decide if they want to award tenders that run beyond 2030 that will be ok with hybrids or diesels. If the do, then need to put in change of vehicle provisions in case they change to a 2030 end date. I'm assuming 31/12/30, not their financial year end during 2030 which would be 31/3/30 (actually they have already issued contracts going past this date).
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Post by LD71YLO (BE37054) on Jan 29, 2023 18:45:36 GMT
TfL's target is currently 2034, but TfL has stated that with Government support this could be brought forward to 2030. Government could also support the UK's bus manufacturers to increase production of zero-emisson vehicles by investing in production facilities and employment training programmes. The tender awards 2 days ago, did include two routes ending November 2030 with hybrids, there was also a route ending early 2031 (route 228 with new electric buses). TfL are effectively on the cusp of having to decide if they want to award tenders that run beyond 2030 that will be ok with hybrids or diesels. If the do, then need to put in change of vehicle provisions in case they change to a 2030 end date. I'm assuming 31/12/30, not their financial year end during 2030 which would be 31/3/30 (actually they have already issued contracts going past this date). It could also be the end of financial year 30-31, so the date would be 31/3/31.
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Post by wirewiper on Jan 29, 2023 18:58:04 GMT
TfL's target is currently 2034, but TfL has stated that with Government support this could be brought forward to 2030. Government could also support the UK's bus manufacturers to increase production of zero-emisson vehicles by investing in production facilities and employment training programmes. The tender awards 2 days ago, did include two routes ending November 2030 with hybrids, there was also a route ending early 2031 (route 228 with new electric buses). TfL are effectively on the cusp of having to decide if they want to award tenders that run beyond 2030 that will be ok with hybrids or diesels. If the do, then need to put in change of vehicle provisions in case they change to a 2030 end date. I'm assuming 31/12/30, not their financial year end during 2030 which would be 31/3/30 (actually they have already issued contracts going past this date). A lot of contract awards on the basis of existing vehicles are currently being awarded for five years not seven, I believe all recent awards with pure diesels have been for this length*. If this policy was adopted for hybrids as well TfL would have until 2025 before it needs to commit absolutely. * usual caveat - happy to stand corrected!
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Post by Eastlondoner62 on Jan 29, 2023 19:06:44 GMT
The tender awards 2 days ago, did include two routes ending November 2030 with hybrids, there was also a route ending early 2031 (route 228 with new electric buses). TfL are effectively on the cusp of having to decide if they want to award tenders that run beyond 2030 that will be ok with hybrids or diesels. If the do, then need to put in change of vehicle provisions in case they change to a 2030 end date. I'm assuming 31/12/30, not their financial year end during 2030 which would be 31/3/30 (actually they have already issued contracts going past this date). A lot of contract awards on the basis of existing vehicles are currently being awarded for five years not seven, I believe all recent awards with pure diesels have been for this length*. If this policy was adopted for hybrids as well TfL would have until 2025 before it needs to commit absolutely. * usual caveat - happy to stand corrected!I believe the 62 is a 7 year contract with a fully diesel allocation.
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Post by southlondon413 on Jan 29, 2023 19:40:44 GMT
A lot of contract awards on the basis of existing vehicles are currently being awarded for five years not seven, I believe all recent awards with pure diesels have been for this length*. If this policy was adopted for hybrids as well TfL would have until 2025 before it needs to commit absolutely. * usual caveat - happy to stand corrected!I believe the 62 is a 7 year contract with a fully diesel allocation. As were the W19, H20 and U7, all 7 years with existing diesels.
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Post by southlondonbus on Jan 29, 2023 21:49:51 GMT
TfL's target is currently 2034, but TfL has stated that with Government support this could be brought forward to 2030. Government could also support the UK's bus manufacturers to increase production of zero-emisson vehicles by investing in production facilities and employment training programmes. Even still an extra four years still seems rather trivial! It would also seem to me that instead of ordering from other manufacturers, companies like RATP and Stagecoach would probably rather stay loyal to their preferred manufacturer and just wait a while for them to be ready to take their order rather than go elsewhere. I would imagine Optare were been rubbing their hands together in Nov 2020 when the 49, 63, 132, 160 and 180 were announced with new electrics and ADL was swamped with orders from RATP, and Optare were the only other manufacturer of electric DDs at the time. But in the end they got shunned completely and everyone just went with ADL and sat tight for the orders to eventually get produced. ADL will probably need to eventually open another factory at this rate to keep up with demand, but may seem a little futile if they can’t get the batteries in quick enough. I would imagine demand will soar further still when the new integral E400 and E100 EVs hit the market. I can see the Wright Electroliner proving popular now with Arriva maybe taking more of them and I would be surprised to see an order by Go Ahead for the 40 and 185 to start diversifying the orders so that they have another option then just ADL. The part 57 is more likely to follow the 213 for more City's.
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