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Post by wirewiper on Jun 18, 2021 9:23:13 GMT
The Lib Dems have taken the parliamentary seat of Chesham & Amersham, hitherto a safe Conservative seat, by a decisive majority. The seat was contested following the death of Cheryl Gillan MP, who had held the seat for the Conservatives since 1992. Sarah Green received 21,517 votes, leaving the Conservative candidate Peter Fleet trailing with just 13,489. The vote appears to have been secured from both disenchanted Conservative voters, and Labour supporters getting behind the Lib Dems - their own candidate secured just 622 votes. www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jun/18/lib-dems-win-chesham-and-amersham-byelection-in-stunning-upsetThe scale and upset of the victory is reminiscent of the Orpington by-election nearly 60 years ago in 1962, when the Liberals (as they were then) scored a stunning victory in another hitherto safe Conservative seat, with people rebelling against a scandal-hit and unpopular Government. The victory unleashed a wave of local activism which is said to have spurred on the setting up of the various independent bus operators in the area, creating new links in the local network that London Transport seemed unwilling to provide. |
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Post by twobellstogo on Jun 18, 2021 16:42:44 GMT
That’s the sort of result that might make Conservatives in supposedly safe seats in an arc from Herts, through Bucks, Berks, Hants, Surrey and Sussex sleep a little less easily. They could easily lose seats in these heartlands as Labour already have in the north, through complacency.
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Post by wirewiper on Jun 18, 2021 17:13:22 GMT
That’s the sort of result that might make Conservatives in supposedly safe seats in an arc from Herts, through Bucks, Berks, Hants, Surrey and Sussex sleep a little less easily. They could easily lose seats in these heartlands as Labour already have in the north, through complacency. Yes, although Johnson's brand of Conservatism might play well in some formerly Labour heartlands, it doesn't always go down so well in traditionally Tory areas. Apparently local concerns were raised about radical planning reforms which would give the Government more 'top-down' powers over local councils, a sensitive subject in a constituency that stands in an AONB (Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty). There was also local disquiet over the expulsion from the party of Dominic Grieve, the former MP for neighbouring Beaconsfield, due to his opposition to Brexit. Obviously the Lib Dems will struggle to pull off anything like this at a General Election, but there are signs that progressive voters are willing again to vote tactically - on a 10% swing the Lib Dems would take up to 23 seats, mostly in the South, and if Labour voters are willing to give their support as they clearly did in Chesham & Amersham they could do even better than that. |
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Post by greenboy on Jun 18, 2021 18:09:58 GMT
There have been murmurings for a while about Conservatives overlooking tradition southern heartlands and being more interested in seats in the north and this was payback time. There are suggestions that planning reforms and HS2 have had some significant bearing on the result, meanwhile Labour got just 1.6% of the vote and came 4th behind the Green Party.
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Post by thesquirrels on Jun 18, 2021 20:45:15 GMT
See St. Albans in 2019 electing Daisy Cooper for another example of this. Largely wealthy commuter town, well educated, historically Tory, went LD. Remain voters in '16, with little time for Johnson's nationalistic schtick, and some growing disquiet at how the current show are running things, especially post-covid. There was a degree of tactical voting by Labour voters in C&A to get the LD candidate in and keep the Tory candidate, who by all measures seemed a little complacent, out. Cheryl Gillan was well respected across the floor - her majority was not just on the back of her party, but also her good standing in the area. I don't think her replacement fully recognised this in the campaign he fought.
It was an intensely fought by-election that the Lib Dems did a decent job with, scrambling resources from across the country. My inlaws have a lot of paper recycling for the next bin collection.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 18, 2021 22:13:33 GMT
See St. Albans in 2019 electing Daisy Cooper for another example of this. Largely wealthy commuter town, well educated, historically Tory, went LD. Remain voters in '16, with little time for Johnson's nationalistic schtick, and some growing disquiet at how the current show are running things, especially post-covid. There was a degree of tactical voting by Labour voters in C&A to get the LD candidate in and keep the Tory candidate, who by all measures seemed a little complacent, out. Cheryl Gillan was well respected across the floor - her majority was not just on the back of her party, but also her good standing in the area. I don't think her replacement fully recognised this in the campaign he fought. It was an intensely fought by-election that the Lib Dems did a decent job with, scrambling resources from across the country. My inlaws have a lot of paper recycling for the next bin collection. I’m almost positive 99% of the LD leaflets sent out in the area were full of exaggerations and flat out lies, they normally are. |
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Post by MetrolineGA1511 on Jun 19, 2021 19:14:59 GMT
The LibDems did gain some Council seats in nearby areas, especially Oxfordshire, although these were offset by losses elsewhere.
As an aside, I keep feeling the towns should be listed in the opposite order, ie Amersham & Chesham. This is because Amersham comes first alphabetically. Also for many years, Amersham was served by the Met from Baker Street direct but Chesham usually required a change at Chalfont & Latimer.
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Post by wivenswold on Jun 21, 2021 4:55:45 GMT
See St. Albans in 2019 electing Daisy Cooper for another example of this. Largely wealthy commuter town, well educated, historically Tory, went LD. Remain voters in '16, with little time for Johnson's nationalistic schtick, and some growing disquiet at how the current show are running things, especially post-covid. There was a degree of tactical voting by Labour voters in C&A to get the LD candidate in and keep the Tory candidate, who by all measures seemed a little complacent, out. Cheryl Gillan was well respected across the floor - her majority was not just on the back of her party, but also her good standing in the area. I don't think her replacement fully recognised this in the campaign he fought. It was an intensely fought by-election that the Lib Dems did a decent job with, scrambling resources from across the country. My inlaws have a lot of paper recycling for the next bin collection. I’m almost positive 99% of the LD leaflets sent out in the area were full of exaggerations and flat out lies, they normally are. I'm 99% positive that almost all pre-election leaflets sent out are full of exaggerations and, let's just call them "mistruths". I'm in the Green Party, look where telling the truth gets us in every election! 4th at best. I'm also an Arsenal supporter so I'm used to it. |
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Post by LondonNorthern on Jun 21, 2021 18:28:34 GMT
I’m almost positive 99% of the LD leaflets sent out in the area were full of exaggerations and flat out lies, they normally are. I'm 99% positive that almost all pre-election leaflets sent out are full of exaggerations and, let's just call them "mistruths". I'm in the Green Party, look where telling the truth gets us in every election! 4th at best. I'm also an Arsenal supporter so I'm used to it. To me I'm not a fan of yours ;D but it is definitely interesting seeing something not with Tory/Labour seats.
All I will say is Come On You Spurs  to finish this off |
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to finish this off