|
|
Post by wirewiper on Oct 2, 2022 16:47:03 GMT
I am probably wrong "again" but my prediction is that somewhere along the line only full Zero Emission buses will be accepted for new contracts somewhere along the line. Could well be in 2023 but happy to be corrected. For a 2037 target, it's likely most buses in London will have made it through at least 2 contract, potentially even 3. We already know the Ex 13 VHs are heading to the 340 which will be their third route. Not to mention chances are routes like the 405, 202, 25 and 425 which all got Hybrids in 2020 will probably see two contracts. Assuming all 4 get extensions, then see out another 7 year contract it will be 2034 until those buses are replaced with zero emission vehicles. We've got diesels themselves sticking around until 2030. All this has got me wondering - which will be the first route to be awarded with existing electrics? |
|
|
|
Post by SILENCED on Oct 2, 2022 16:51:01 GMT
For a 2037 target, it's likely most buses in London will have made it through at least 2 contract, potentially even 3. We already know the Ex 13 VHs are heading to the 340 which will be their third route. Not to mention chances are routes like the 405, 202, 25 and 425 which all got Hybrids in 2020 will probably see two contracts. Assuming all 4 get extensions, then see out another 7 year contract it will be 2034 until those buses are replaced with zero emission vehicles. We've got diesels themselves sticking around until 2030. All this has got me wondering - which will be the first route to be awarded with existing electrics? Was 312 |
|
|
|
Post by WH241 on Oct 2, 2022 16:52:18 GMT
For a 2037 target, it's likely most buses in London will have made it through at least 2 contract, potentially even 3. We already know the Ex 13 VHs are heading to the 340 which will be their third route. Not to mention chances are routes like the 405, 202, 25 and 425 which all got Hybrids in 2020 will probably see two contracts. Assuming all 4 get extensions, then see out another 7 year contract it will be 2034 until those buses are replaced with zero emission vehicles. We've got diesels themselves sticking around until 2030. All this has got me wondering - which will be the first route to be awarded with existing electrics? Do you mean a different route to the original tender? We have had existing renewals already with the 70 and think there are others. |
|
|
|
Post by portman227 on Oct 2, 2022 17:02:46 GMT
For a 2037 target, it's likely most buses in London will have made it through at least 2 contract, potentially even 3. We already know the Ex 13 VHs are heading to the 340 which will be their third route. Not to mention chances are routes like the 405, 202, 25 and 425 which all got Hybrids in 2020 will probably see two contracts. Assuming all 4 get extensions, then see out another 7 year contract it will be 2034 until those buses are replaced with zero emission vehicles. We've got diesels themselves sticking around until 2030. All this has got me wondering - which will be the first route to be awarded with existing electrics? 359 technically is getting existing electrics from 184 |
|
|
|
Post by Eastlondoner62 on Oct 2, 2022 17:07:20 GMT
Considering all routes have capacitors instead of batteries which do not often need a replacement it should be fine. Mid-Contract upgrades aren't going to be worth it unless someone pays for them, which TfL are not in any position to do. If you know any decent reliable sites about capacitors please do share. Lately I've been reading about the different types of Hybrid vehicles from Mild/Smart, to Full Parellel & Series. Gave me a headache 🤣 Wonder what will come next after Electric years later hmm? There won't be much to come after electric, an equivalent will be Hydrogen but it's likely not going to be a replacement. Once electric/Hydrogen vehicles are established, a lot of research will be conducted into how to optimise them. Neither at the moment are truly zero emission, they're both just moving the emissions elsewhere. Electrics are more efficient, they almost always will be because Hydrogen itself (if harvested renewably) is harvested using electrolysis which uses electricity. Something vaguely like 3 miles worth of electricity on an electric bus, if used for electrolysis will only provide 1 mile worth of Hydrogen. Obviously as time goes on this process will be refined multiple times over, but it's unlikely and closer to impossible you'll get a 1 mile of electricity translating to 1 mile of Hydrogen ratio. Issue with electrics though is battery degradation. Hydrogen tanks do not degrade in the same way as lithium batteries do. 160 miles of range will eventually dip to 100 miles of range over time. Not to mention a degraded battery at the moment is very expensive to properly recycle, so may just get dumped in landfill somewhere. While a Hydrogen tank is just a lump of standard metal end of the day which will be cheaper to recycle. |
|
|
|
Post by yunus on Oct 2, 2022 17:54:21 GMT
If you know any decent reliable sites about capacitors please do share. Lately I've been reading about the different types of Hybrid vehicles from Mild/Smart, to Full Parellel & Series. Gave me a headache 🤣 Wonder what will come next after Electric years later hmm? There won't be much to come after electric, an equivalent will be Hydrogen but it's likely not going to be a replacement. Once electric/Hydrogen vehicles are established, a lot of research will be conducted into how to optimise them. Neither at the moment are truly zero emission, they're both just moving the emissions elsewhere. Electrics are more efficient, they almost always will be because Hydrogen itself (if harvested renewably) is harvested using electrolysis which uses electricity. Something vaguely like 3 miles worth of electricity on an electric bus, if used for electrolysis will only provide 1 mile worth of Hydrogen. Obviously as time goes on this process will be refined multiple times over, but it's unlikely and closer to impossible you'll get a 1 mile of electricity translating to 1 mile of Hydrogen ratio. Issue with electrics though is battery degradation. Hydrogen tanks do not degrade in the same way as lithium batteries do. 160 miles of range will eventually dip to 100 miles of range over time. Not to mention a degraded battery at the moment is very expensive to properly recycle, so may just get dumped in landfill somewhere. While a Hydrogen tank is just a lump of standard metal end of the day which will be cheaper to recycle. Thanks again for a detailed response. What would be the main issue with Hybrids? |
|
|
|
Post by londonbuses184 on Oct 2, 2022 17:55:22 GMT
All this has got me wondering - which will be the first route to be awarded with existing electrics? 359 technically is getting existing electrics from 184 How do you know the 359 is getting electrics from the 184? |
|
|
|
Post by TB123 on Oct 2, 2022 18:00:28 GMT
359 technically is getting existing electrics from 184 How do you know the 359 is getting electrics from the 184? As we've gone over many times, it has been confirmed by reliable sources that such a transfer will occur once a frequency cut takes place on the 184. |
|
|
|
Post by Eastlondoner62 on Oct 2, 2022 18:07:22 GMT
There won't be much to come after electric, an equivalent will be Hydrogen but it's likely not going to be a replacement. Once electric/Hydrogen vehicles are established, a lot of research will be conducted into how to optimise them. Neither at the moment are truly zero emission, they're both just moving the emissions elsewhere. Electrics are more efficient, they almost always will be because Hydrogen itself (if harvested renewably) is harvested using electrolysis which uses electricity. Something vaguely like 3 miles worth of electricity on an electric bus, if used for electrolysis will only provide 1 mile worth of Hydrogen. Obviously as time goes on this process will be refined multiple times over, but it's unlikely and closer to impossible you'll get a 1 mile of electricity translating to 1 mile of Hydrogen ratio. Issue with electrics though is battery degradation. Hydrogen tanks do not degrade in the same way as lithium batteries do. 160 miles of range will eventually dip to 100 miles of range over time. Not to mention a degraded battery at the moment is very expensive to properly recycle, so may just get dumped in landfill somewhere. While a Hydrogen tank is just a lump of standard metal end of the day which will be cheaper to recycle. Thanks again for a detailed response. What would be the main issue with Hybrids? Same issue as Diesels, they are polluting. Hybrids do also come with the battery issue that electric buses have. Disposing of them is not easy and it is not yet economical to recycle them. |
|
|
|
Post by redbus on Oct 2, 2022 19:50:55 GMT
If you know any decent reliable sites about capacitors please do share. Lately I've been reading about the different types of Hybrid vehicles from Mild/Smart, to Full Parellel & Series. Gave me a headache 🤣 Wonder what will come next after Electric years later hmm? There won't be much to come after electric, an equivalent will be Hydrogen but it's likely not going to be a replacement. Once electric/Hydrogen vehicles are established, a lot of research will be conducted into how to optimise them. Neither at the moment are truly zero emission, they're both just moving the emissions elsewhere. Electrics are more efficient, they almost always will be because Hydrogen itself (if harvested renewably) is harvested using electrolysis which uses electricity. Something vaguely like 3 miles worth of electricity on an electric bus, if used for electrolysis will only provide 1 mile worth of Hydrogen. Obviously as time goes on this process will be refined multiple times over, but it's unlikely and closer to impossible you'll get a 1 mile of electricity translating to 1 mile of Hydrogen ratio. Issue with electrics though is battery degradation. Hydrogen tanks do not degrade in the same way as lithium batteries do. 160 miles of range will eventually dip to 100 miles of range over time. Not to mention a degraded battery at the moment is very expensive to properly recycle, so may just get dumped in landfill somewhere. While a Hydrogen tank is just a lump of standard metal end of the day which will be cheaper to recycle. Battery and hydrogen buses (both are electric) have the potential to be pretty green. In reality they are not yet quite so green. Firstly, there is the manufacturing process which may not be very green or could use renewables. The production of the electricity to recharge the batteries or produce green hydrogen (electrolysis) may or may not be renewable. The transportation of the hydrogen is another area which may not be green as this could be transported by diesel tankers. It could also be done in future by electric tankers or direct by pipe. Batteries as you mention have lots of precious metals and so on which do not have an unlimited supply. The batteries do not last forever either and will need to be recycled. Add to the battery recycling costs, the costs of battery production and they are not yet truly green. Most hybrid buses in London have lithium based batteries, which do have a limited life and eventually need replacement. If the batteries are not replaced then the bus will use more fuel and so will cost more to run. They will also no longer be green and effectively just be a poor diesel bus. Those hybrids will ultra-capacitors are better placed. The ultra-caps should last the life of the bus, so should not need replacing. Unfortunately, ultra-caps don't yet have the capacity and performance of lithium batteries which is why there are no full electric buses that exclusively use them. |
|
