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Post by vjaska on Oct 6, 2022 13:41:26 GMT
A few interesting observations I noted from this. - Route 38: the biggest PVR and arguably highest frequency route in London is in a measly 17th place with just 6.67 million….. - Route 73: another among the most frequent routes in London, didn’t even reach the top THIRTY….. even the 34 beat it for goodness sake. - Route 25 is gaining places back towards the top of the table - The 170 is a very strong single deck performer yet TfL cut its frequency - Only two routes broke 10 million despite the whole 2021/22 year being fully out of lockdown in this April-April period. Even though the early part of this period there was still some amount of restrictions so I would hope 2022/23 would be an improvement still on these figures. Which shows you that TfL have cut routes frequencies and/or PVR based on what looks like (not categorically saying it is) a random sequence or pattern. For example, the 159 has had more than one cut to it frequency and/or PVR yet has jumped into 29th place when it wasn't even in the top 30 before |
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Post by southlondonbus on Oct 6, 2022 15:46:01 GMT
Only 586,000 on the 412 and it still gets DDs on every journey compared with SD operated buses carrying 4 or more times that amount.
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Post by greenboy on Oct 6, 2022 16:05:38 GMT
Only 586,000 on the 412 and it still gets DDs on every journey compared with SD operated buses carrying 4 or more times that amount. Needs double deckers for school loadings, if was single decked though it wouldn't need to use Sussex Road to avoid the low bridge. |
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Post by southlondonbus on Oct 6, 2022 16:21:17 GMT
Only 586,000 on the 412 and it still gets DDs on every journey compared with SD operated buses carrying 4 or more times that amount. Needs double deckers for school loadings, if was single decked though it wouldn't need to use Sussex Road to avoid the low bridge. And probably still cheaper then all those journeys on the 612 before. |
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Post by LondonNorthern on Oct 6, 2022 20:45:37 GMT
A few interesting observations I noted from this. - Route 38: the biggest PVR and arguably highest frequency route in London is in a measly 17th place with just 6.67 million….. - Route 73: another among the most frequent routes in London, didn’t even reach the top THIRTY….. even the 34 beat it for goodness sake. - Route 25 is gaining places back towards the top of the table - The 170 is a very strong single deck performer yet TfL cut its frequency - Only two routes broke 10 million despite the whole 2021/22 year being fully out of lockdown in this April-April period. Even though the early part of this period there was still some amount of restrictions so I would hope 2022/23 would be an improvement still on these figures. On your last point, I am sure this year will look more normal figures wise. Masks being mandatory and working from home still being more mainstream into the latter end of 2021 likely hadn’t helped matters, and I’m sure all the tube strikes have probably bolstered figures quite a bit! |
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Post by CircleLineofLife on Oct 14, 2022 14:40:27 GMT
Its criminal how the 427 is still going to be cut, the Uxbridge Road corridor is still in very good use.
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Post by CircleLineofLife on Oct 14, 2022 14:51:53 GMT
Top 10 Usage per Bus km Operated (rounded):
1. Route 330 (6.91) (=)
2. Route 238 (6.81) (=)
3. Route 149 (6.72) (+4)
4. Route W7 (6.44) (+10)
5. Route 104 (6.43) (-1) - may be off the top 10 next year due to new route 304!
6. Route 29 (6.29) (+3)
7. Route 41 (6.19) (-1)
8. Route 98 (6.05) (+11)
9. Route 35 (6.02) (+4)
10. Route 109 (5.96) (-2)
Thanks for the analysis Green Kitten. I think usage per km is very good stat to look at.
We can see if the routes are consistently used throughout the length of operation. Despite the 98 going into Central it still is a consistently used along the whole route. Due to its directness from NW hubs like Kilburn and Willesden into Central. Therefore it should not be fiddled with at the central end.
The Victoria reroute is poor, The Oxford Street link is too important
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Post by londonbuses on Oct 15, 2022 0:22:32 GMT
Top 10 used routes with a frequency of 2bph or less: 1. Route X26 - 1,391,090 2. Route 492 - 900,716 3. Route 465 - 572,057 4. Route 470 - 531,6205. Route B14 - 452,457 6. Route S4 - 450,438 7. Route U7 - 435,547 8. Route 397 - 379,895 9. Route 398 - 367,647 10. Route W12 - 363,721
No surprise that the X26 tops the list by far, it has been a victim of its own success, and definitely needs to be at least doubled in frequency. I reckon even 4bph may not even be enough, since the current timings suppress usage as they currently make it harder to use for some, and an awful lot of people actively avoid the route now due to overcrowding and use routes 213, 285 or 407 instead. The 465 is interesting, and I would suspect TfL would definitely not look at increasing it (unless Surrey provided the funding for it) since most of its usage likely comes from quite far outside of Greater London, and the section within London is mostly paralleled by the 71 and K4. Top 10 used routes without a Sunday service (excluding routes 521 and X68): 1. Route 470 - 531,6202. Route S3 - 472,135 3. Route S4 - 450,438 4. Route W12 - 363,721 5. Route K5 - 283,409 6. Route K4 - 282,271 7. Route 424 - 275,839 8. Route 383 - 262,266 9. Route 377 - 221,089 10. Route R2 - 162,176 Top 10 used routes without an evening service: 1. Route 470 - 531,620 2. Route S3 - 472,135 (runs for part of the evening) 3. Route 397 - 379,895 4. Route 481 - 338,762 5. Route K5 - 283,409 6. Route 424 - 275,839 7. Route 383 - 262,266 8. Route U9 - 250,432 (runs for part of the evening)9. Route 359 - 228,948 10. Route 456 - 228,095 It is clear that the 470 need to be majorly improved, being the only route to appear in all three of the lists above, as well as coming first in two of them (and not by small margins either). I myself have said many times it needs a frequency increase, and it definitely should be doubled in frequency from 2bph to 4bph, with a 2bph evening and Sunday service added.
It is also obvious TfL is slightly neglecting areas of South/South West London, with majority of the routes appearing in the lists being in that area.
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Post by VMH2537 on Oct 15, 2022 4:39:28 GMT
Top 10 used routes with a frequency of 2bph or less: 1. Route X26 - 1,391,090 2. Route 492 - 900,716 3. Route 465 - 572,057 4. Route 470 - 531,6205. Route B14 - 452,457 6. Route S4 - 450,438 7. Route U7 - 435,547 8. Route 397 - 379,895 9. Route 398 - 367,647 10. Route W12 - 363,721
No surprise that the X26 tops the list by far, it has been a victim of its own success, and definitely needs to be at least doubled in frequency. I reckon even 4bph may not even be enough, since the current timings suppress usage as they currently make it harder to use for some, and an awful lot of people actively avoid the route now due to overcrowding and use routes 213, 285 or 407 instead. The 465 is interesting, and I would suspect TfL would definitely not look at increasing it (unless Surrey provided the funding for it) since most of its usage likely comes from quite far outside of Greater London, and the section within London is mostly paralleled by the 71 and K4. Top 10 used routes without a Sunday service (excluding routes 521 and X68): 1. Route 470 - 531,6202. Route S3 - 472,135 3. Route S4 - 450,438 4. Route W12 - 363,721 5. Route K5 - 283,409 6. Route K4 - 282,271 7. Route 424 - 275,839 8. Route 383 - 262,266 9. Route 377 - 221,089 10. Route R2 - 162,176 Top 10 used routes without an evening service: 1. Route 470 - 531,620 2. Route S3 - 472,135 (runs for part of the evening) 3. Route 397 - 379,895 4. Route 481 - 338,762 5. Route K5 - 283,409 6. Route 424 - 275,839 7. Route 383 - 262,266 8. Route U9 - 250,432 (runs for part of the evening)9. Route 359 - 228,948 10. Route 456 - 228,095 It is clear that the 470 need to be majorly improved, being the only route to appear in all three of the lists above, as well as coming first in two of them (and not by small margins either). I myself have said many times it needs a frequency increase, and it definitely should be doubled in frequency from 2bph to 4bph, with a 2bph evening and Sunday service added.
It is also obvious TfL is slightly neglecting areas of South/South West London, with majority of the routes appearing in the lists being in that area.
Much of the routes in the West and the South west area were much slower to recover it's pre-pandemic usage. I'd imagine the majority of high car ownership had made avoiding public transport more easier for the users whilst the pandemic was around. It's also noticeable routes such as the H2 hasn't also recovered well as it runs through wealthy suburbs of Hampstead. |
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Post by vjaska on Oct 15, 2022 19:29:19 GMT
Top 10 used routes with a frequency of 2bph or less: 1. Route X26 - 1,391,090 2. Route 492 - 900,716 3. Route 465 - 572,057 4. Route 470 - 531,6205. Route B14 - 452,457 6. Route S4 - 450,438 7. Route U7 - 435,547 8. Route 397 - 379,895 9. Route 398 - 367,647 10. Route W12 - 363,721 No surprise that the X26 tops the list by far, it has been a victim of its own success, and definitely needs to be at least doubled in frequency. I reckon even 4bph may not even be enough, since the current timings suppress usage as they currently make it harder to use for some, and an awful lot of people actively avoid the route now due to overcrowding and use routes 213, 285 or 407 instead. The 465 is interesting, and I would suspect TfL would definitely not look at increasing it (unless Surrey provided the funding for it) since most of its usage likely comes from quite far outside of Greater London, and the section within London is mostly paralleled by the 71 and K4. Top 10 used routes without a Sunday service (excluding routes 521 and X68): 1. Route 470 - 531,6202. Route S3 - 472,135 3. Route S4 - 450,438 4. Route W12 - 363,721 5. Route K5 - 283,409 6. Route K4 - 282,271 7. Route 424 - 275,839 8. Route 383 - 262,266 9. Route 377 - 221,089 10. Route R2 - 162,176 Top 10 used routes without an evening service: 1. Route 470 - 531,620 2. Route S3 - 472,135 (runs for part of the evening) 3. Route 397 - 379,895 4. Route 481 - 338,762 5. Route K5 - 283,409 6. Route 424 - 275,839 7. Route 383 - 262,266 8. Route U9 - 250,432 (runs for part of the evening)9. Route 359 - 228,948 10. Route 456 - 228,095 It is clear that the 470 need to be majorly improved, being the only route to appear in all three of the lists above, as well as coming first in two of them (and not by small margins either). I myself have said many times it needs a frequency increase, and it definitely should be doubled in frequency from 2bph to 4bph, with a 2bph evening and Sunday service added. It is also obvious TfL is slightly neglecting areas of South/South West London, with majority of the routes appearing in the lists being in that area.
I think it would be more natural to try both the X26 & 470 at 3bph rather than doubling it to 2bph from 4bph |
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Post by southlondon413 on Oct 15, 2022 20:22:23 GMT
Top 10 used routes with a frequency of 2bph or less: 1. Route X26 - 1,391,090 2. Route 492 - 900,716 3. Route 465 - 572,057 4. Route 470 - 531,6205. Route B14 - 452,457 6. Route S4 - 450,438 7. Route U7 - 435,547 8. Route 397 - 379,895 9. Route 398 - 367,647 10. Route W12 - 363,721 No surprise that the X26 tops the list by far, it has been a victim of its own success, and definitely needs to be at least doubled in frequency. I reckon even 4bph may not even be enough, since the current timings suppress usage as they currently make it harder to use for some, and an awful lot of people actively avoid the route now due to overcrowding and use routes 213, 285 or 407 instead. The 465 is interesting, and I would suspect TfL would definitely not look at increasing it (unless Surrey provided the funding for it) since most of its usage likely comes from quite far outside of Greater London, and the section within London is mostly paralleled by the 71 and K4. Top 10 used routes without a Sunday service (excluding routes 521 and X68): 1. Route 470 - 531,6202. Route S3 - 472,135 3. Route S4 - 450,438 4. Route W12 - 363,721 5. Route K5 - 283,409 6. Route K4 - 282,271 7. Route 424 - 275,839 8. Route 383 - 262,266 9. Route 377 - 221,089 10. Route R2 - 162,176 Top 10 used routes without an evening service: 1. Route 470 - 531,620 2. Route S3 - 472,135 (runs for part of the evening) 3. Route 397 - 379,895 4. Route 481 - 338,762 5. Route K5 - 283,409 6. Route 424 - 275,839 7. Route 383 - 262,266 8. Route U9 - 250,432 (runs for part of the evening)9. Route 359 - 228,948 10. Route 456 - 228,095 It is clear that the 470 need to be majorly improved, being the only route to appear in all three of the lists above, as well as coming first in two of them (and not by small margins either). I myself have said many times it needs a frequency increase, and it definitely should be doubled in frequency from 2bph to 4bph, with a 2bph evening and Sunday service added. It is also obvious TfL is slightly neglecting areas of South/South West London, with majority of the routes appearing in the lists being in that area.
I think it would be more natural to try both the X26 & 470 at 3bph rather than doubling it to 2bph from 4bph High spec, bespoke branded buses potentially tri-axle to maximise both luggage capacity and maintain existing lower deck capacity would be perfect when combined with an increase to 3bph for the x26. But I can dream. |
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Post by Jack on Oct 15, 2022 23:02:03 GMT
Green Kitten Thanks for pulling that all together - really interesting read!
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Post by londonbuses on Oct 16, 2022 0:32:54 GMT
Top 30 routes with the highest percentage change of usage (have gained the most passengers) since 2018/19 (the last available period on the data that was unaffected by COVID):
1. Route 404 - 158.12% (Frequency doubled, Sunday service added, and route extended) 2. Route 110 - 152.17% (Merged with 391) 3. Route 423 - 126.82% 4. Route 419 - 118.35% (Hammersmith Bridge closure) 5. Route 112 - 107.42% 6. Route 440 - 107.02% 7. Route 425 - 105.49% 8. Route 384 - 98.85% 9. Route 289 - 97.42% 10. Route 125 - 91.90% 11. Route 26 - 91.76% 12. Route 490 - 90.19% 13. Route 90 - 89.56% 14. Route 35 - 88.84% 15. Route 232 - 88.74% 16. Route EL1 - 87.59% 17. Route 60 - 87.45% 18. Route 158 - 87.04% 19. Route H26 - 86.78% 20. Route 287 - 85.48% 21. Route 482 - 84.48% 22. Route 127 - 84.20% 23. Route 175 - 84.06% 24. Route EL2 - 83.53% 25. Route 303 - 83.40% 26. Route 318 - 83.22% 27. Route 130 - 82.04% 28. Route 453 - 81.81% 29. Route 372 - 81.73% 30. Route 314 - 81.70% Top 30 routes with the lowest percentage change of usage (have lost the most passengers) since 2018/19 (the last available period on the data that was unaffected by COVID):
1. Route 209 - 7.42% (Hammersmith Bridge closure) 2. Route 507 - 25.78% 3. Route 521 - 26.69% 4. Route 72 - 29.21% (Hammersmith Bridge closure) 5. Route 45 - 38.74% 6. Route 485 - 47.27% (Hammersmith Bridge closure) 7. Route 266 - 47.73% 8. Route 67 - 48.35% 9. Route 140 - 48.52% 10. Route 224 - 49.04% 11. Route 327 - 49.09% 12. Route A10 - 49.11% 13. Route 27 - 49.38% 14. Route R8 - 51.60% 15. Route 134 - 51.96% 16. Route 346 - 52.10% 17. Route E1 - 52.49% 18. Route X68 - 52.95% 19. Route 25 - 53.06% 20. Route 414 - 53.28% 21. Route 33 - 53.53% (Hammersmith Bridge closure) 22. Route 476 - 54.05% 23. Route H22 - 54.63% 24. Route U10 - 54.82% 25. Route 268 - 54.88% 26. Route 4 - 55.11% 27. Route 292 - 55.24% 28. Route 412 - 55.44% 29. Route 299 - 55.88% 30. Route 433 - 55.92% |
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Post by borneobus on Oct 16, 2022 2:20:02 GMT
londonbuses very interesting statistics particularly the decrease in route pax performance - you provided some analysis - great if you or others could provide casuals - I’ll weigh in with a few (semi) educated guesses… 507/521 - reduction due City workers “working from home” (WFH) X68 ditto A10 - here’s a real punt - increase in Stockley Park workers WFH who would have travelled to Heathrow Central on LU and then A10 140 - pax shifting to X140 E1 traffic is mainly feed off rail pax to Ealing Broadway - again more WFH Can anyone come up with causals for 346 / U10 - I have a perception that both predominantly contain ‘shopping’ journeys, often by seniors to Upminister and Uxbridge/Ruislip respectively - is this people of this demographic now more reluctant / less inclined to travel to shops and order from supermarkets - Amazon etc
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Post by uakari on Oct 16, 2022 5:39:45 GMT
Top 30 routes with the highest percentage change of usage (have gained the most passengers) since 2018/19 (the last available period on the data that was unaffected by COVID):
1. Route 404 - 158.12% (Frequency doubled, Sunday service added, and route extended) 2. Route 110 - 152.17% (Merged with 391) 3. Route 423 - 126.82% 4. Route 419 - 118.35% (Hammersmith Bridge closure) 5. Route 112 - 107.42% 6. Route 440 - 107.02% 7. Route 425 - 105.49% 8. Route 384 - 98.85% 9. Route 289 - 97.42% 10. Route 125 - 91.90% 11. Route 26 - 91.76% 12. Route 490 - 90.19% 13. Route 90 - 89.56% 14. Route 35 - 88.84% 15. Route 232 - 88.74% 16. Route EL1 - 87.59% 17. Route 60 - 87.45% 18. Route 158 - 87.04% 19. Route H26 - 86.78% 20. Route 287 - 85.48% 21. Route 482 - 84.48% 22. Route 127 - 84.20% 23. Route 175 - 84.06% 24. Route EL2 - 83.53% 25. Route 303 - 83.40% 26. Route 318 - 83.22% 27. Route 130 - 82.04% 28. Route 453 - 81.81% 29. Route 372 - 81.73% 30. Route 314 - 81.70% Top 30 routes with the lowest percentage change of usage (have lost the most passengers) since 2018/19 (the last available period on the data that was unaffected by COVID):
1. Route 209 - 7.42% (Hammersmith Bridge closure) 2. Route 507 - 25.78% 3. Route 521 - 26.69% 4. Route 72 - 29.21% (Hammersmith Bridge closure) 5. Route 45 - 38.74% 6. Route 485 - 47.27% (Hammersmith Bridge closure) 7. Route 266 - 47.73% 8. Route 67 - 48.35% 9. Route 140 - 48.52% 10. Route 224 - 49.04% 11. Route 327 - 49.09% 12. Route A10 - 49.11% 13. Route 27 - 49.38% 14. Route R8 - 51.60% 15. Route 134 - 51.96% 16. Route 346 - 52.10% 17. Route E1 - 52.49% 18. Route X68 - 52.95% 19. Route 25 - 53.06% 20. Route 414 - 53.28% 21. Route 33 - 53.53% (Hammersmith Bridge closure) 22. Route 476 - 54.05% 23. Route H22 - 54.63% 24. Route U10 - 54.82% 25. Route 268 - 54.88% 26. Route 4 - 55.11% 27. Route 292 - 55.24% 28. Route 412 - 55.44% 29. Route 299 - 55.88% 30. Route 433 - 55.92% Is the percentage quoted the percentage loss/gain of passengers, or is it current passenger numbers as a percentage of what they were in 2018/19? |
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