|
Post by ronnie on Aug 24, 2022 7:52:13 GMT
It was the Scottish government that took the Scotrail franchise off of Abellio ... it is devolved. Still, a humiliation and loss of revenue. EU wants a lot more competition in the rail sector, no doubt NS face more challenges from operators back home. Ironic that UK got rid of its state railway, and ended up with state railways from other countries providing services instead Abellio have invested well in the buses, it will be a shame to see them go. Management buyouts don't always end well, venture capital firms pounce, strip out assets and break the companies up. Happened to my employer in 2014, a firm came in, and by October 2015 it was all over with redundancies and sell offs. Bus industry seems to be going through lots of changes, especially in London with even TfL in a terrible state I posted this in the HCT thread but the events with Abellio confirms my belief that with a shrinking market we will see consolidation / exits - GAL: being taken over - Arriva: already part of Deutsche bahn - Metroline: ? - Stagecoach: taken over - TT: split between ratp and Stagecoach - HCT: bring taken over in all probability - Abellio: management buyout - RATP: ? - Sullivan / Uno: too small Assuming Stagecoach take over the entirety of HCT, we will see a shift in market shares / ranking: - GAL: continued #1 with ~25% share but will be impacted by the recent bus cuts - Stagecoach: will become #2 (only just). ~18% share - Arriva: pushed down to #3. ~18% share - Metroline: pushed down to #4 with headwinds from bus cuts. ~17% share - RATP: #5 with 12% share but headwinds from staffing issues - Abellio: #6 but with a management team in place. Financing? ~9% share Fundamentally I won’t be surprised if one of RATP / Metroline have a go at acquiring Abellio at some stage. Will add scale in existing areas and will “take out a competitor”. Will be around / below the 25% market share mark so should still fly
|
|
|
Post by TB123 on Aug 24, 2022 8:00:49 GMT
Still, a humiliation and loss of revenue. EU wants a lot more competition in the rail sector, no doubt NS face more challenges from operators back home. Ironic that UK got rid of its state railway, and ended up with state railways from other countries providing services instead Abellio have invested well in the buses, it will be a shame to see them go. Management buyouts don't always end well, venture capital firms pounce, strip out assets and break the companies up. Happened to my employer in 2014, a firm came in, and by October 2015 it was all over with redundancies and sell offs. Bus industry seems to be going through lots of changes, especially in London with even TfL in a terrible state I posted this in the HCT thread but the events with Abellio confirms my belief that with a shrinking market we will see consolidation / exits - GAL: being taken over - Arriva: already part of Deutsche bahn - Metroline: ? - Stagecoach: taken over - TT: split between ratp and Stagecoach - HCT: bring taken over in all probability - Abellio: management buyout - RATP: ? - Sullivan / Uno: too small Assuming Stagecoach take over the entirety of HCT, we will see a shift in market shares / ranking: - GAL: continued #1 with ~25% share but will be impacted by the recent bus cuts - Stagecoach: will become #2 (only just). ~18% share - Arriva: pushed down to #3. ~18% share - Metroline: pushed down to #4 with headwinds from bus cuts. ~17% share - RATP: #5 with 12% share but headwinds from staffing issues - Abellio: #6 but with a management team in place. Financing? ~9% share Fundamentally I won’t be surprised if one of RATP / Metroline have a go at acquiring Abellio at some stage. Will add scale in existing areas and will “take out a competitor”. Will be around / below the 25% market share mark so should still fly Interesting post. Good spot of number crunching. I did a prediction for 2022 that we'd see further consolidation, I've really been proved right so far! Wonder if Abellio might be a split acquisition, 3 west garages and the "east ones" - Stagecoach for the east ones, RATP/Metroline for the west? I've heard they've bought the company at a low price as NS wishes to reduce exposure to contractual bonds on rail contracts, the bus business is profitable and growing so a disposal may release value. I wonder if a Sullivan's/Uno tieup in time may well be advantageous - it would maintain an independent presence but with a bit more oomph.
|
|
|
Post by M1104 on Aug 24, 2022 8:42:52 GMT
Wonder if Abellio might be a split acquisition, 3 west garages and the "east ones" - Stagecoach for the east ones, RATP/Metroline for the west? I've heard they've bought the company at a low price as NS wishes to reduce exposure to contractual bonds on rail contracts, the bus business is profitable and growing so a disposal may release value. Under that senario I wouldn't totally rule out RATP/Metroline venturing for the south London depots or Stagecoach for the west ones.
|
|
|
Post by SN17MOA on Aug 24, 2022 9:22:34 GMT
Wonder if Abellio might be a split acquisition, 3 west garages and the "east ones" - Stagecoach for the east ones, RATP/Metroline for the west? I've heard they've bought the company at a low price as NS wishes to reduce exposure to contractual bonds on rail contracts, the bus business is profitable and growing so a disposal may release value. Under that scenario I wouldn't totally rule out RATP/Metroline venturing for the south London depots or Stagecoach for the west ones. It would be odd to see Stagecoach operating in west London if they offered a bid to take over Abellio. Less so for RATP/Metroline in south London. Interesting stuff ahead for a move that certainly happened due to Brexit. The gift that always giving, not.
|
|
|
Post by southlondon413 on Aug 24, 2022 9:41:38 GMT
Under that scenario I wouldn't totally rule out RATP/Metroline venturing for the south London depots or Stagecoach for the west ones. It would be odd to see Stagecoach operating in west London if they offered a bid to take over Abellio. Less so for RATP/Metroline in south London. Interesting stuff ahead for a move that certainly happened due to Brexit. The gift that always giving, not. I don’t think this is solely a Brexit decision. If NS wanted out they would have done so years ago. Rather I suspect the cost of living crisis has exacerbated problems with the railways in The Netherlands, strikes were due to begin today for an entire week. So it makes sense to want to focus on the home market and invest more cash there instead of internationally. I’d suspect they will also divest the German rail contracts soon as well to free up capital. As the articles being published today note NS will continue to support their former UK ops but whether it is an investor remains to be seen. But I don’t think Brexit will have played a major decision on this especially as British transport companies like Go Ahead are continuing to expand across Europe.
|
|
|
Post by ronnie on Aug 24, 2022 9:43:58 GMT
I posted this in the HCT thread but the events with Abellio confirms my belief that with a shrinking market we will see consolidation / exits - GAL: being taken over - Arriva: already part of Deutsche bahn - Metroline: ? - Stagecoach: taken over - TT: split between ratp and Stagecoach - HCT: bring taken over in all probability - Abellio: management buyout - RATP: ? - Sullivan / Uno: too small Assuming Stagecoach take over the entirety of HCT, we will see a shift in market shares / ranking: - GAL: continued #1 with ~25% share but will be impacted by the recent bus cuts - Stagecoach: will become #2 (only just). ~18% share - Arriva: pushed down to #3. ~18% share - Metroline: pushed down to #4 with headwinds from bus cuts. ~17% share - RATP: #5 with 12% share but headwinds from staffing issues - Abellio: #6 but with a management team in place. Financing? ~9% share Fundamentally I won’t be surprised if one of RATP / Metroline have a go at acquiring Abellio at some stage. Will add scale in existing areas and will “take out a competitor”. Will be around / below the 25% market share mark so should still fly Interesting post. Good spot of number crunching. I did a prediction for 2022 that we'd see further consolidation, I've really been proved right so far! Wonder if Abellio might be a split acquisition, 3 west garages and the "east ones" - Stagecoach for the east ones, RATP/Metroline for the west? I've heard they've bought the company at a low price as NS wishes to reduce exposure to contractual bonds on rail contracts, the bus business is profitable and growing so a disposal may release value. I wonder if a Sullivan's/Uno tieup in time may well be advantageous - it would maintain an independent presence but with a bit more oomph. Indeed, that’s plausible. Split might be easier to achieve frankly as the other operators may have different interests
|
|
|
Post by BE37054 (quoll662) on Aug 24, 2022 9:48:21 GMT
I really dont't see there being many changes visible to us with Abellio barring logos and potentially new interiors for new buses. Also maybe different makes of bus ordered for new contracts. But definitely not a sale of the London bus business, it has been very successful as of late. Don't forget the management will of course stay the same.
|
|
|
Post by M1104 on Aug 24, 2022 9:55:30 GMT
I really dont't see there being many changes visible to us with Abellio barring logos and potentially new interiors for new buses. Also maybe different makes of bus ordered for new contracts. But definitely not a sale of the London bus business, it has been very successful as of late. Don't forget the management will of course stay the same. Staff uniforms will likely also change. As for different bus types across various contracts that's already happening to a degree as of late.
|
|
|
Post by DT 11 on Aug 24, 2022 11:41:23 GMT
I really dont't see there being many changes visible to us with Abellio barring logos and potentially new interiors for new buses. Also maybe different makes of bus ordered for new contracts. But definitely not a sale of the London bus business, it has been very successful as of late. Don't forget the management will of course stay the same. It will not really influence bus orders in London. The business will be rebranded though.
|
|
|
Post by rif153 on Aug 24, 2022 19:58:49 GMT
Still, a humiliation and loss of revenue. EU wants a lot more competition in the rail sector, no doubt NS face more challenges from operators back home. Ironic that UK got rid of its state railway, and ended up with state railways from other countries providing services instead Abellio have invested well in the buses, it will be a shame to see them go. Management buyouts don't always end well, venture capital firms pounce, strip out assets and break the companies up. Happened to my employer in 2014, a firm came in, and by October 2015 it was all over with redundancies and sell offs. Bus industry seems to be going through lots of changes, especially in London with even TfL in a terrible state I posted this in the HCT thread but the events with Abellio confirms my belief that with a shrinking market we will see consolidation / exits - GAL: being taken over - Arriva: already part of Deutsche bahn - Metroline: ? - Stagecoach: taken over - TT: split between ratp and Stagecoach - HCT: bring taken over in all probability - Abellio: management buyout - RATP: ? - Sullivan / Uno: too small Assuming Stagecoach take over the entirety of HCT, we will see a shift in market shares / ranking: - GAL: continued #1 with ~25% share but will be impacted by the recent bus cuts - Stagecoach: will become #2 (only just). ~18% share - Arriva: pushed down to #3. ~18% share - Metroline: pushed down to #4 with headwinds from bus cuts. ~17% share - RATP: #5 with 12% share but headwinds from staffing issues - Abellio: #6 but with a management team in place. Financing? ~9% share Fundamentally I won’t be surprised if one of RATP / Metroline have a go at acquiring Abellio at some stage. Will add scale in existing areas and will “take out a competitor”. Will be around / below the 25% market share mark so should still fly The shrinking market really has made the bus scene less interesting. Before First's sale in my area, we had a three way battleground with First/Metroline/RATP (Abellio didn't really become a major player in Ealing until the mid 2010s) and for the Metroline hegemony immediately after they acquired First was so dull before Abellio won some ex centrewest routes. Tower Transit had a limited presence in inner West London though I felt their presence contracting after the losses of the 31, 70, 266 and 295* to Metroline and RATP. I would hate to see Abellio's West London garages swallowed up by another operator as we'd be down to two operators which would make the bus scene far less varied. It would feel wrong for two garages as close as G and GW to be owned by the same operator, just as having S and X owned by the same operator doesn't feel right as it means larger companies have monopolies.
|
|
|
Post by vjaska on Aug 24, 2022 23:26:54 GMT
I posted this in the HCT thread but the events with Abellio confirms my belief that with a shrinking market we will see consolidation / exits - GAL: being taken over - Arriva: already part of Deutsche bahn - Metroline: ? - Stagecoach: taken over - TT: split between ratp and Stagecoach - HCT: bring taken over in all probability - Abellio: management buyout - RATP: ? - Sullivan / Uno: too small Assuming Stagecoach take over the entirety of HCT, we will see a shift in market shares / ranking: - GAL: continued #1 with ~25% share but will be impacted by the recent bus cuts - Stagecoach: will become #2 (only just). ~18% share - Arriva: pushed down to #3. ~18% share - Metroline: pushed down to #4 with headwinds from bus cuts. ~17% share - RATP: #5 with 12% share but headwinds from staffing issues - Abellio: #6 but with a management team in place. Financing? ~9% share Fundamentally I won’t be surprised if one of RATP / Metroline have a go at acquiring Abellio at some stage. Will add scale in existing areas and will “take out a competitor”. Will be around / below the 25% market share mark so should still fly The shrinking market really has made the bus scene less interesting. Before First's sale in my area, we had a three way battleground with First/Metroline/RATP (Abellio didn't really become a major player in Ealing until the mid 2010s) and for the Metroline hegemony immediately after they acquired First was so dull before Abellio won some ex centrewest routes. Tower Transit had a limited presence in inner West London though I felt their presence contracting after the losses of the 31, 70, 266 and 295* to Metroline and RATP. I would hate to see Abellio's West London garages swallowed up by another operator as we'd be down to two operators which would make the bus scene far less varied. It would feel wrong for two garages as close as G and GW to be owned by the same operator, just as having S and X owned by the same operator doesn't feel right as it means larger companies have monopolies. Are there many parts of London that have had a stable set of operators throughout the TfL era - my own area could qualify given that in 2000, it was Arriva, London Central & General (under the Go-Ahead group), Connex & Stagecoach and fast forward 22 years, Connex turned into Travel London & Abellio whilst Stagecoach briefly went ELBG before returning are really the only changes but they are still the same 4 operators just under different guises.
|
|
|
Post by southlondon413 on Aug 25, 2022 6:59:56 GMT
The shrinking market really has made the bus scene less interesting. Before First's sale in my area, we had a three way battleground with First/Metroline/RATP (Abellio didn't really become a major player in Ealing until the mid 2010s) and for the Metroline hegemony immediately after they acquired First was so dull before Abellio won some ex centrewest routes. Tower Transit had a limited presence in inner West London though I felt their presence contracting after the losses of the 31, 70, 266 and 295* to Metroline and RATP. I would hate to see Abellio's West London garages swallowed up by another operator as we'd be down to two operators which would make the bus scene far less varied. It would feel wrong for two garages as close as G and GW to be owned by the same operator, just as having S and X owned by the same operator doesn't feel right as it means larger companies have monopolies. Are there many parts of London that have had a stable set of operators throughout the TfL era - my own area could qualify given that in 2000, it was Arriva, London Central & General (under the Go-Ahead group), Connex & Stagecoach and fast forward 22 years, Connex turned into Travel London & Abellio whilst Stagecoach briefly went ELBG before returning are really the only changes but they are still the same 4 operators just under different guises. Sutton has had a really stable set of operators. The only change was from Quality Line to RATP but otherwise no other sellouts. Abellio kicked off their compan6 on the 407s 2009 contract so that doesn’t count.
|
|
|
Post by kermit463 on Aug 25, 2022 18:58:33 GMT
What route/routes uses the stand on Kennington Lane, called Chester Way I think. On the 196 route so would assume that?
|
|
|
Post by YX10FFN on Aug 25, 2022 19:10:32 GMT
What route/routes uses the stand on Kennington Lane, called Chester Way I think. On the 196 route so would assume that? And any route that goes along Kennington Road (3, 59, 159) also the 360 maybe?
|
|
|
Post by dlroper on Aug 25, 2022 19:20:44 GMT
Spotted LT92 on the A406 at Palmers Green being towed eastwards yesterday lunchtime - not been seen since 27-06
|
|