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Post by wirewiper on Feb 19, 2024 18:14:42 GMT
I'm surprised that no-one has mentioned the recent by-election results. Given that a General Election could be as little as three months away, the two by-elections reveal a lot about the state of the two main parties, and the mood of the electorate.
If the result in Kingswood was fantastic for Labour, then Wellingborough was phenomenal. The swing of 28.5% from Conservative to Labour was the second largest since the Second World War and turned an apparently unassailable 18,000 Conservative majority into a Labour majority of over 6,000 - enough to qualify it as a Labour safe seat. There are specific factors which affected the Wellingborough result. The Labour candidate, Gen Kitchen, has local connections, campaigned on local issues, and was an experienced candidate having already fought the neighbouring South Northamptonshire seat at the last General Election. She was up against a Consersative candidate that was not popular locally, being the partner of the disgraced former MP for the constituency, Peter Bone. The mood amongst Labour party members locally was buoyant, having recently taken another local seat, Mid-Bedfordshire, at a by-election, and they put a lot of effort into campaigning.
The scale of the victory in Wellingborough somewhat overshadowed what on any other night would have been a great result for Labour. Here a swing of 16% turned an 11,000+ Conservative majority into a 2,500 majority for Labour. The by-election was triggered by the resignation of the sitting MP, Chris Skidmore, who had already announced that he would not be seeking re-election at the next General Election, at which the seat of Kingswood is due to be abolished due to boundary changes. As a previous Minister for Energy and Clean Growth, and the person who signed the UK's Net Zero Pledge into law, he was opposed to the Offshore Petroleum Licensing Bill. The Labour candidate, Damien Egan, having already been selected as the candidate for the new Bristol North East seat, was chosen to contest the by-election. He resigned the Mayoralty of the Borough of Lewisham to do so.
The results show that the Conservative party is in very deep trouble. In both constituencies there was a low turnout, of less than 40%. This suggests that Conservative voters are staying at home. It is also noticeable that Reform UK had a reasonable share of the vote (10% in Kingswood and 13% in Wellingborough), most of which almost certainly came from former Conservative voters. Reform UK do not seem to be much of a threat to Labour though as could have done much better - both Kingswood and Wellingborough voted strongly Leave in the 2016 Referendum. Perhaps it didn't help that the Wellingborough candidate spent the morning of polling in Irthlingborough - which isn't actually in the constituency. Incidentally the Greens also retained their deposit, partly because of their standing in Bristol where they are the largest single grouping on the City Council.
Labour knows it cannot afford to relax - but can take a lot of comfort that any damage from the ongoing débacle in Rochdale, where the by-election takes place next week, looks like it will be confined locally. If Kingswood is repeated nationally at the General Election, Labour will have a comfortable majority. If the rout is on the scale of Wellingborough, the Conservative party in Parliament will be annihilated.
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Post by towerman on Feb 19, 2024 22:22:39 GMT
Irthlingborough will be part of the Wellingborough constituency at the general election.
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Post by Eastlondoner62 on Feb 19, 2024 22:29:50 GMT
I think no matter the right wing commentary now it's clear to Sunak that his ship is halfway sunk. He just needs to decide whether he wants to call an early election and go nobly or whether he delays it, with potential of a slight reprieve but a trade off then being an even bigger defeat if things don't work out for him.
While it may seem Labour is backtracking on promises now, it shows that they are preparing to form a government with realistic targets. Labour really is a government in waiting now and I'd not be surprised to see Starmer shuffling his top team one last time before an election.
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Post by wirewiper on Feb 20, 2024 8:35:09 GMT
Irthlingborough will be part of the Wellingborough constituency at the general election. It wasn't at the by-election though so the Reform UK candidate was wasting their time and effort there. |
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Post by capitalomnibus on Feb 20, 2024 9:43:10 GMT
I'm surprised that no-one has mentioned the recent by-election results. Given that a General Election could be as little as three months away, the two by-elections reveal a lot about the state of the two main parties, and the mood of the electorate. If the result in Kingswood was fantastic for Labour, then Wellingborough was phenomenal. The swing of 28.5% from Conservative to Labour was the second largest since the Second World War and turned an apparently unassailable 18,000 Conservative majority into a Labour majority of over 6,000 - enough to qualify it as a Labour safe seat. There are specific factors which affected the Wellingborough result. The Labour candidate, Gen Kitchen, has local connections, campaigned on local issues, and was an experienced candidate having already fought the neighbouring South Northamptonshire seat at the last General Election. She was up against a Consersative candidate that was not popular locally, being the partner of the disgraced former MP for the constituency, Peter Bone. The mood amongst Labour party members locally was buoyant, having recently taken another local seat, Mid-Bedfordshire, at a by-election, and they put a lot of effort into campaigning. The scale of the victory in Wellingborough somewhat overshadowed what on any other night would have been a great result for Labour. Here a swing of 16% turned an 11,000+ Conservative majority into a 2,500 majority for Labour. The by-election was triggered by the resignation of the sitting MP, Chris Skidmore, who had already announced that he would not be seeking re-election at the next General Election, at which the seat of Kingswood is due to be abolished due to boundary changes. As a previous Minister for Energy and Clean Growth, and the person who signed the UK's Net Zero Pledge into law, he was opposed to the Offshore Petroleum Licensing Bill. The Labour candidate, Damien Egan, having already been selected as the candidate for the new Bristol North East seat, was chosen to contest the by-election. He resigned the Mayoralty of the Borough of Lewisham to do so. The results show that the Conservative party is in very deep trouble. In both constituencies there was a low turnout, of less than 40%. This suggests that Conservative voters are staying at home. It is also noticeable that Reform UK had a reasonable share of the vote (10% in Kingswood and 13% in Wellingborough), most of which almost certainly came from former Conservative voters. Reform UK do not seem to be much of a threat to Labour though as could have done much better - both Kingswood and Wellingborough voted strongly Leave in the 2016 Referendum. Perhaps it didn't help that the Wellingborough candidate spent the morning of polling in Irthlingborough - which isn't actually in the constituency. Incidentally the Greens also retained their deposit, partly because of their standing in Bristol where they are the largest single grouping on the City Council. Labour knows it cannot afford to relax - but can take a lot of comfort that any damage from the ongoing débacle in Rochdale, where the by-election takes place next week, looks like it will be confined locally. If Kingswood is repeated nationally at the General Election, Labour will have a comfortable majority. If the rout is on the scale of Wellingborough, the Conservative party in Parliament will be annihilated. Maybe because everyone knew what the result was going to be why no one mentioned it. But there is NOTHING stopping you from doing it, which it seems you have done to go on your high horse about your party after all your a paid up member. They have said with these results that many people did not even bother to vote, mainly the ones who voted Conservative at the last election and they are seeing a trend where they have not switched back to Labour. |
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Post by borneobus on Feb 20, 2024 10:30:58 GMT
I'm surprised that no-one has mentioned the recent by-election results. Given that a General Election could be as little as three months away, the two by-elections reveal a lot about the state of the two main parties, and the mood of the electorate. If the result in Kingswood was fantastic for Labour, then Wellingborough was phenomenal. The swing of 28.5% from Conservative to Labour was the second largest since the Second World War and turned an apparently unassailable 18,000 Conservative majority into a Labour majority of over 6,000 - enough to qualify it as a Labour safe seat. There are specific factors which affected the Wellingborough result. The Labour candidate, Gen Kitchen, has local connections, campaigned on local issues, and was an experienced candidate having already fought the neighbouring South Northamptonshire seat at the last General Election. She was up against a Consersative candidate that was not popular locally, being the partner of the disgraced former MP for the constituency, Peter Bone. The mood amongst Labour party members locally was buoyant, having recently taken another local seat, Mid-Bedfordshire, at a by-election, and they put a lot of effort into campaigning. The scale of the victory in Wellingborough somewhat overshadowed what on any other night would have been a great result for Labour. Here a swing of 16% turned an 11,000+ Conservative majority into a 2,500 majority for Labour. The by-election was triggered by the resignation of the sitting MP, Chris Skidmore, who had already announced that he would not be seeking re-election at the next General Election, at which the seat of Kingswood is due to be abolished due to boundary changes. As a previous Minister for Energy and Clean Growth, and the person who signed the UK's Net Zero Pledge into law, he was opposed to the Offshore Petroleum Licensing Bill. The Labour candidate, Damien Egan, having already been selected as the candidate for the new Bristol North East seat, was chosen to contest the by-election. He resigned the Mayoralty of the Borough of Lewisham to do so. The results show that the Conservative party is in very deep trouble. In both constituencies there was a low turnout, of less than 40%. This suggests that Conservative voters are staying at home. It is also noticeable that Reform UK had a reasonable share of the vote (10% in Kingswood and 13% in Wellingborough), most of which almost certainly came from former Conservative voters. Reform UK do not seem to be much of a threat to Labour though as could have done much better - both Kingswood and Wellingborough voted strongly Leave in the 2016 Referendum. Perhaps it didn't help that the Wellingborough candidate spent the morning of polling in Irthlingborough - which isn't actually in the constituency. Incidentally the Greens also retained their deposit, partly because of their standing in Bristol where they are the largest single grouping on the City Council. Labour knows it cannot afford to relax - but can take a lot of comfort that any damage from the ongoing débacle in Rochdale, where the by-election takes place next week, looks like it will be confined locally. If Kingswood is repeated nationally at the General Election, Labour will have a comfortable majority. If the rout is on the scale of Wellingborough, the Conservative party in Parliament will be annihilated. Maybe because everyone knew what the result was going to be why no one mentioned it. But there is NOTHING stopping you from doing it, which it seems you have done to go on your high horse about your party after all your a paid up member. They have said with these results that many people did not even bother to vote, mainly the ones who voted Conservative at the last election and they are seeing a trend where they have not switched back to Labour. There's a lot of Conservative MPs standing down at the next GE. I wonder if some of them are worried about having their own 'Portillo Moment"... [refer Enfield Southgate 1997] |
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Post by Eastlondoner62 on Feb 20, 2024 10:55:21 GMT
I'm surprised that no-one has mentioned the recent by-election results. Given that a General Election could be as little as three months away, the two by-elections reveal a lot about the state of the two main parties, and the mood of the electorate. If the result in Kingswood was fantastic for Labour, then Wellingborough was phenomenal. The swing of 28.5% from Conservative to Labour was the second largest since the Second World War and turned an apparently unassailable 18,000 Conservative majority into a Labour majority of over 6,000 - enough to qualify it as a Labour safe seat. There are specific factors which affected the Wellingborough result. The Labour candidate, Gen Kitchen, has local connections, campaigned on local issues, and was an experienced candidate having already fought the neighbouring South Northamptonshire seat at the last General Election. She was up against a Consersative candidate that was not popular locally, being the partner of the disgraced former MP for the constituency, Peter Bone. The mood amongst Labour party members locally was buoyant, having recently taken another local seat, Mid-Bedfordshire, at a by-election, and they put a lot of effort into campaigning. The scale of the victory in Wellingborough somewhat overshadowed what on any other night would have been a great result for Labour. Here a swing of 16% turned an 11,000+ Conservative majority into a 2,500 majority for Labour. The by-election was triggered by the resignation of the sitting MP, Chris Skidmore, who had already announced that he would not be seeking re-election at the next General Election, at which the seat of Kingswood is due to be abolished due to boundary changes. As a previous Minister for Energy and Clean Growth, and the person who signed the UK's Net Zero Pledge into law, he was opposed to the Offshore Petroleum Licensing Bill. The Labour candidate, Damien Egan, having already been selected as the candidate for the new Bristol North East seat, was chosen to contest the by-election. He resigned the Mayoralty of the Borough of Lewisham to do so. The results show that the Conservative party is in very deep trouble. In both constituencies there was a low turnout, of less than 40%. This suggests that Conservative voters are staying at home. It is also noticeable that Reform UK had a reasonable share of the vote (10% in Kingswood and 13% in Wellingborough), most of which almost certainly came from former Conservative voters. Reform UK do not seem to be much of a threat to Labour though as could have done much better - both Kingswood and Wellingborough voted strongly Leave in the 2016 Referendum. Perhaps it didn't help that the Wellingborough candidate spent the morning of polling in Irthlingborough - which isn't actually in the constituency. Incidentally the Greens also retained their deposit, partly because of their standing in Bristol where they are the largest single grouping on the City Council. Labour knows it cannot afford to relax - but can take a lot of comfort that any damage from the ongoing débacle in Rochdale, where the by-election takes place next week, looks like it will be confined locally. If Kingswood is repeated nationally at the General Election, Labour will have a comfortable majority. If the rout is on the scale of Wellingborough, the Conservative party in Parliament will be annihilated. Maybe because everyone knew what the result was going to be why no one mentioned it. But there is NOTHING stopping you from doing it, which it seems you have done to go on your high horse about your party after all your a paid up member. They have said with these results that many people did not even bother to vote, mainly the ones who voted Conservative at the last election and they are seeing a trend where they have not switched back to Labour. So by not voting they've effectively allowed a Labour candidate to win, I think Labour will happily live with that. |
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Post by ThinLizzy on Feb 20, 2024 19:13:40 GMT
Maybe because everyone knew what the result was going to be why no one mentioned it. But there is NOTHING stopping you from doing it, which it seems you have done to go on your high horse about your party after all your a paid up member. They have said with these results that many people did not even bother to vote, mainly the ones who voted Conservative at the last election and they are seeing a trend where they have not switched back to Labour. So by not voting they've effectively allowed a Labour candidate to win, I think Labour will happily live with that. I think it's an even bigger problem for the Conservatives if they can't get their support in a "safe Tory seat" to go out and vote in a by-election |
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Post by southlondon413 on Feb 20, 2024 19:49:00 GMT
So by not voting they've effectively allowed a Labour candidate to win, I think Labour will happily live with that. I think it's an even bigger problem for the Conservatives if they can't get their support in a "safe Tory seat" to go out and vote in a by-election I think it’ll be a problem on all sides of the political spectrum. I suspect the next general election will be the lowest turnout since 1918 and that was around 57%. I think people are disillusioned with politics and the the politicians who are no better than each other. I am predicting a win for Labour but largely because parties like Reform will split the remaining Tory vote. I am also going to predict that Starmers government won’t remain viable for long, I give it two years before it collapses largely because the same issues as the current government faces. Long term immigration issues, growing inflation, increases in government corruption and general unrest due to continued austerity measures. |
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Post by Eastlondoner62 on Feb 20, 2024 20:50:12 GMT
I think it's an even bigger problem for the Conservatives if they can't get their support in a "safe Tory seat" to go out and vote in a by-election I think it’ll be a problem on all sides of the political spectrum. I suspect the next general election will be the lowest turnout since 1918 and that was around 57%. I think people are disillusioned with politics and the the politicians who are no better than each other. I am predicting a win for Labour but largely because parties like Reform will split the remaining Tory vote. I am also going to predict that Starmers government won’t remain viable for long, I give it two years before it collapses largely because the same issues as the current government faces. Long term immigration issues, growing inflation, increases in government corruption and general unrest due to continued austerity measures. I think a lot will come down to the extent that the Tories will damage themselves and what they do in opposition. Labour in government will probably have enough time to valuate policies and learn from the mistakes being made by the current government too. Sunak will almost certainly be gone, but if they put someone like Badenoch in then Labour might as well not even campaign for the next GE because it'll be handed to them on a plate. However someone like Penny Mordaunt who has silently gained a following from all sides of the spectrum might stand a decent chance, assuming that whatever happens to the Tories is within the realm of being able to be rebuilt. |
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Post by capitalomnibus on Feb 21, 2024 13:45:21 GMT
Maybe because everyone knew what the result was going to be why no one mentioned it. But there is NOTHING stopping you from doing it, which it seems you have done to go on your high horse about your party after all your a paid up member. They have said with these results that many people did not even bother to vote, mainly the ones who voted Conservative at the last election and they are seeing a trend where they have not switched back to Labour. There's a lot of Conservative MPs standing down at the next GE. I wonder if some of them are worried about having their own 'Portillo Moment"... [refer Enfield Southgate 1997] I think some, even if it were a safe seat are fed up. Some have said ages ago they would not. The same for some Labour MP's who have also said the same. |
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Post by capitalomnibus on Feb 21, 2024 13:46:59 GMT
Maybe because everyone knew what the result was going to be why no one mentioned it. But there is NOTHING stopping you from doing it, which it seems you have done to go on your high horse about your party after all your a paid up member. They have said with these results that many people did not even bother to vote, mainly the ones who voted Conservative at the last election and they are seeing a trend where they have not switched back to Labour. So by not voting they've effectively allowed a Labour candidate to win, I think Labour will happily live with that. Well, I do not think they care to be honest. I could see turn out at this upcoming GE and London Mayoral election to be one of the lowest in years. |
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Post by capitalomnibus on Feb 21, 2024 13:48:38 GMT
I think it's an even bigger problem for the Conservatives if they can't get their support in a "safe Tory seat" to go out and vote in a by-election I think it’ll be a problem on all sides of the political spectrum. I suspect the next general election will be the lowest turnout since 1918 and that was around 57%. I think people are disillusioned with politics and the the politicians who are no better than each other. I am predicting a win for Labour but largely because parties like Reform will split the remaining Tory vote. I am also going to predict that Starmers government won’t remain viable for long, I give it two years before it collapses largely because the same issues as the current government faces. Long term immigration issues, growing inflation, increases in government corruption and general unrest due to continued austerity measures. Add to the list politicians who are selfish and have their own interest and agendas above the party they represent |
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Post by Eastlondoner62 on Feb 21, 2024 14:25:38 GMT
So by not voting they've effectively allowed a Labour candidate to win, I think Labour will happily live with that. Well, I do not think they care to be honest. I could see turn out at this upcoming GE and London Mayoral election to be one of the lowest in years. What makes this funny is traditionally Labour voters are the ones who don't go to the polls and Tories do. The fact Tories are actively avoiding voting for their own party sums up their state. |
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Post by capitalomnibus on Feb 21, 2024 22:33:57 GMT
Well, I do not think they care to be honest. I could see turn out at this upcoming GE and London Mayoral election to be one of the lowest in years. What makes this funny is traditionally Labour voters are the ones who don't go to the polls and Tories do. The fact Tories are actively avoiding voting for their own party sums up their state. Absolute rubbish. Many of the traditional Labour voters here, yourself included would be at the polls by the crack of dawn to get your vote in. After all its like a football team to you, nothing else. |
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