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Post by routew15 on May 24, 2014 11:20:16 GMT
Well I have been looking at the data, and come up with the *busiest* and *least busy* routes, by looking at the operated mileage against the patronage. I have split it into single and double deck routes to show the capacity difference, I am not however going to delve into the seating capacity of each allocated vehicle to the route, I haven't got that much spare time on my hands (although probably too much time as it is!!) Anyway, this is obviously just a sample of the routes which have the most/least boardings per mile operated. It may give an indication of overcrowding/over-bused, but is not necessarily representative due to the obvious indeterminable factors such as length of journey the average passenger on the route has, and whether the route is prone to high spikes in peak demand. We do not have any data of these factors, so have to work with what we have. I do however believe that it is fairly representative when comparing my experiences travelling. Busiest Double Deck Routes1)W7 2)330 3)60 4)104 5)58 6)238 7)EL1 8)29 9)149 10)271 Busiest Single Deck Routes1)507 2)521 3)355 4)316 5)214 6)D6 7)W4 8)236 9)42 10)C11 Least Busy Double Deck Routes1)350 2)492 3)498 4)467 5)353 6)370 7)160 8)412 9)405 10)61 Least Busy Single Deck Routes1)R5 2)R10 3)H3 4)R8 5)146 6)347 7)399 8)375 9)359 10)246 Few points: Routes 507/521 are obvious as being the busiest due to their nature. Routes like the X26 would fall down the list as they carry passengers for longer distances (as I assume do faster, cross boundary services like the 370) meaning that it is highly likely that they will be busier than this suggests. The majority of the routes I belive are fairly comparable. Make of this what you will. I think you meant 69 at number 3, for most busiest double deckers. 330 is more efficient than I thought. The 330, 104, 58 and 238 all serve the Green Street/Upton Park area. The 69 is a 24 hour route so the numbers I assume are effected by that, and make it seem more busy than it could be. • I am seriously surprised the 330 is Number 2 on the busiest 8 would of more adequate • Thought the 29 might come above the EL1 so that's a surprise too. • I knew the W4 was busy but Number 7 is still quite high up would of thought 9 was a better position for the W4
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Post by westhamgeezer on May 24, 2014 11:57:06 GMT
Well I have been looking at the data, and come up with the *busiest* and *least busy* routes, by looking at the operated mileage against the patronage. I have split it into single and double deck routes to show the capacity difference, I am not however going to delve into the seating capacity of each allocated vehicle to the route, I haven't got that much spare time on my hands (although probably too much time as it is!!) Anyway, this is obviously just a sample of the routes which have the most/least boardings per mile operated. It may give an indication of overcrowding/over-bused, but is not necessarily representative due to the obvious indeterminable factors such as length of journey the average passenger on the route has, and whether the route is prone to high spikes in peak demand. We do not have any data of these factors, so have to work with what we have. I do however believe that it is fairly representative when comparing my experiences travelling. Busiest Double Deck Routes1)W7 2)330 3)60 4)104 5)58 6)238 7)EL1 8)29 9)149 10)271 Busiest Single Deck Routes1)507 2)521 3)355 4)316 5)214 6)D6 7)W4 8)236 9)42 10)C11 Least Busy Double Deck Routes1)350 2)492 3)498 4)467 5)353 6)370 7)160 8)412 9)405 10)61 Least Busy Single Deck Routes1)R5 2)R10 3)H3 4)R8 5)146 6)347 7)399 8)375 9)359 10)246 Few points: Routes 507/521 are obvious as being the busiest due to their nature. Routes like the X26 would fall down the list as they carry passengers for longer distances (as I assume do faster, cross boundary services like the 370) meaning that it is highly likely that they will be busier than this suggests. The majority of the routes I belive are fairly comparable. Make of this what you will. I think you meant 69 at number 3, for most busiest double deckers. 330 is more efficient than I thought. The 330, 104, 58 and 238 all serve the Green Street/Upton Park area. The 69 is a 24 hour route so the numbers I assume are effected by that, and make it seem more busy than it could be. You are correct, I did mean the 69 at numeber 3, not the 60, that was a typo. The 24 hour routes are all shown as separate daytime and night time services, so this shouldn't effect.
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Post by snoggle on May 24, 2014 12:02:50 GMT
Hmmm - the analysis of patronage against operated mileage is something I haven't done. Looking at the routes that Mr WHGeezer has pulled up has a few surprises but he has acknowledged there are data limitations that cause problems here. The W7 is short but has a very high frequency to cope with the strong peak flows it has. In some respects the EL1 is similar because it (and the EL2) are very intensively used between Barking and Ilford - there's always a stream of people at Ilford and Barking wanting a bus. I assume the EL2 is pulled down the ranking because it is longer and much more lightly trafficked to Dagenham Dock.
In response to routeW15 it is worth noting that day and night routes are shown separately in the data as they are different contracts for TfL purposes. I am slightly surprised about the N69 but it is a route I don't see much of at night times so it may well be much better used than I suspect.
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Post by snoggle on May 24, 2014 21:21:45 GMT
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Post by Deleted on May 25, 2014 12:50:26 GMT
The simplest way this dataset could be improved is by attaching tempory 'tap out' oyster readers to some bus exit doors, and rotate through the fleet. Wouldnt have to affect fares atall, just log the exit point and the oyster card number.
Just a quick few observations on the 'top ten's, as it were. Route numbers seem to be fairly high on average for the busiest ones - none of the prestigious single digit routes for example. Not very many west london routes in either top or bottom. Some very familiar routes in the bottom ten single decks! The rural area south of Orpington, and our recent friend the 375.
Does TfL ever publish the cost of tenders? Or is this commercially sensetive even after they have been awarded?
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Post by snoggle on May 25, 2014 15:12:25 GMT
The simplest way this dataset could be improved is by attaching tempory 'tap out' oyster readers to some bus exit doors, and rotate through the fleet. Wouldnt have to affect fares atall, just log the exit point and the oyster card number. Just a quick few observations on the 'top ten's, as it were. Route numbers seem to be fairly high on average for the busiest ones - none of the prestigious single digit routes for example. Not very many west london routes in either top or bottom. Some very familiar routes in the bottom ten single decks! The rural area south of Orpington, and our recent friend the 375. Does TfL ever publish the cost of tenders? Or is this commercially sensetive even after they have been awarded? I am not sure your rotating temporary Oyster exit readers would work conceptually as people probably wouldn't know what to do with them if they kept changing routes. I think it would be worthwhile for TfL to do a trial in an area with a limited number of garages but a reasonable concentration of routes and decent patronage to see how the concept of exit readers worked. Romford would be quite a good area to try as there is a good spread of routes, an interesting profile of passengers and a varied range of bus sizes / designs. I would not link it to determining fares paid but it would be interesting to see how / if dwell times were affected and what sort of data there was on journey patterns. A separate trial would be needed on a very busy route, ideally into or through Zone 1, to see what happened there. I think it is inevitable that we will head towards having exit readers as a flat fare is not sustainable forever. TfL do publish the cost of tenders but what is not published are any subsequent adjustments to those contracts for amended schedules, extensions, frequency changes etc. All the tender cost data is on the TfL website.
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Post by snoggle on May 25, 2014 15:17:31 GMT
After tearing my hair out and then sticking it back on my head ( ) I have managed to align the TfL patronage data with all the other stuff I've created and calculated *and* included the kilometrage data too with the pax per km calculation that WHGeezer did. Attachment DeletedEDIT - I have added a clearer "Look up" sheet within the workbook. That will bring up the info if you type in the route number It's best to use the look up box below the main table and enter the route number in the relevant box. Don't overwrite the formulae in the other boxes. Clearly there's a lot of data and calculations there so it's quite a cumbersome sheet. I appreciate it's not the most elegant way to construct such a spreadsheet but it'll do for now. Hopefully someone will find the info useful.
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Post by Deleted on May 25, 2014 21:06:43 GMT
Nothing a bit of bus stop publicity and a big sign by the doors couldnt solve. Familiarity would come in time as well - the trick would be to order enough to start with, and spread and rotate them widely/quickly enough so that the majority of travelers see them, but then balance it with keeping them on a route long enough for a statisticly significant amount of data to be collected, and not ordering as many as to be a liability on finance. And even if people didnt get to grips with them, or didnt ever use them, the data set would be no worse than now.
Btw - well done on the excel file! Looks like many hours of interrogating awkward data was involved!!
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Post by westhamgeezer on May 26, 2014 0:01:53 GMT
After tearing my hair out and then sticking it back on my head ( ) I have managed to align the TfL patronage data with all the other stuff I've created and calculated *and* included the kilometrage data too with the pax per km calculation that WHGeezer did. View AttachmentEDIT - I have added a clearer "Look up" sheet within the workbook. That will bring up the info if you type in the route number It's best to use the look up box below the main table and enter the route number in the relevant box. Don't overwrite the formulae in the other boxes. Clearly there's a lot of data and calculations there so it's quite a cumbersome sheet. I appreciate it's not the most elegant way to construct such a spreadsheet but it'll do for now. Hopefully someone will find the info useful. I must congratulate you on such an excellent piece of work!! :-)
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Post by Steve80 on May 26, 2014 1:49:29 GMT
After tearing my hair out and then sticking it back on my head ( ) I have managed to align the TfL patronage data with all the other stuff I've created and calculated *and* included the kilometrage data too with the pax per km calculation that WHGeezer did. View AttachmentEDIT - I have added a clearer "Look up" sheet within the workbook. That will bring up the info if you type in the route number It's best to use the look up box below the main table and enter the route number in the relevant box. Don't overwrite the formulae in the other boxes. Clearly there's a lot of data and calculations there so it's quite a cumbersome sheet. I appreciate it's not the most elegant way to construct such a spreadsheet but it'll do for now. Hopefully someone will find the info useful. There is a lot of information to take on here. It's interesting to see the capacity issues of each route and which routes are suffering more than others such as the route 18 which takes over 17 million yet there is a bigger capacity issue on other routes such as the 53. The 25 seems to be in a league of its own. Looking at BC's routes, the 157 has taken over 300,000 extra people since last year. I recall working out that the 407 was possibly the busiest low frequency route last year but its now been overtaken by the 127 which has an even lesser frequency than the 407. The 35 is still Abellio's busiest route taking over 8 million passengers with the 188 and 343 taking similar amount as the 35. They don't compare to the patronage of the 109 though with its 10 million. I wish I was doing that route tomorrow just so I can sample it Oh yes, I also like to congratulate snoggle for doing such a brilliant job
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