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Post by Eastlondoner62 on Oct 22, 2020 10:19:13 GMT
Your logic is clearly flawed.. I take it you wouldn't expect a 3 month lockdown, followed by social distancing measures, mask wearing and limits on social contact and interactions to prevent most of these deaths. Flu is a virus which reproduces through person to person transmission, so it is quite clear that the numbers of deaths from flu would decrease as the rate of transmission is substantially lower than in previous years! I think you also need to remember the criteria for recording a death as coronavirus - A positive test within the 28 days before death. These are people who have died who have tested positive for coronavirus within the past 28 days. No my logic is good ... Not the one that's flawed. If the majority that have died have underlying conditions, and the deaths by underlying condition drop ... Logic says there is a connection, suddenly all the other problems in the world have become less fatal is what you are saying? Yes it is within 28 days of being positive, that does not mean COVID kills them, the underlying condition was probably the cause ... just the underlying cause makes them more susceptible to COVID. Comes across as flawed logic to me. It's already been mentioned that not all underlying health conditions are going to kill you, a Diabetic person infected with Covid wasn't going to die anyway within 28 days - Covid came along and made their condition fatal. So the underlying issue here is the infection with Covid and not the presence of Diabetes. Should they never have been infected with Covid in the first place, chances are that they would have never died within the 28 days. This is the whole reason the 28 day measurement is being used to total the death toll. |
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Post by SILENCED on Oct 22, 2020 10:20:38 GMT
No my logic is good ... Not the one that's flawed. If the majority that have died have underlying conditions, and the deaths by underlying condition drop ... Logic says there is a connection, suddenly all the other problems in the world have become less fatal is what you are saying? So what's your argument, they were dying anyway so who cares if they die sooner? Not all underlying health conditions cause death you know... Besides, perhaps you should take a look at the excess mortality figures, showing we've had more than 60,000 more deaths than the 5 year average this year. How many of those are due to other causes, lack of treatment. I know two older persons that were healthy before lockdown, and died within 4 months, non COVID related. If they were able to live their normal lives, I reckon the would still be here today. Suicide rates are also up since lockdown. "Not all underlying health conditions cause death you know..." ... Did I claim that. If they don't cause death, there will not be a drop in the death rate. |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 22, 2020 10:26:05 GMT
So what's your argument, they were dying anyway so who cares if they die sooner? Not all underlying health conditions cause death you know... Besides, perhaps you should take a look at the excess mortality figures, showing we've had more than 60,000 more deaths than the 5 year average this year. How many of those are due to other causes, lack of treatment. I know two older persons that were healthy before lockdown, and died within 4 months, non COVID related. If they were able to live their normal lives, I reckon the would still be here today. Suicide rates are also up since lockdown. So what, that makes the cure worse than the disease? Think of the numbers that would be dead now if we take no action. Hundreds of thousands. The estimated morality rate for coronavirus is 1%. There are 60 million people in this country. If no action was taken and the virus was allowed to freely infect the population, we would be looking at several hundred thousand deaths, not to mention even more from "lack of treatment" as you put it - as we would quite literally be dumping people outside hospital doors. |
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Post by Green Kitten on Oct 22, 2020 10:41:13 GMT
How many of those are due to other causes, lack of treatment. I know two older persons that were healthy before lockdown, and died within 4 months, non COVID related. If they were able to live their normal lives, I reckon the would still be here today. Suicide rates are also up since lockdown. So what, that makes the cure worse than the disease? Think of the numbers that would be dead now if we take no action. Hundreds of thousands. The estimated morality rate for coronavirus is 1%. There are 60 million people in this country. If no action was taken and the virus was allowed to freely infect the population, we would be looking at several hundred thousand deaths, not to mention even more from "lack of treatment" as you put it - as we would quite literally be dumping people outside hospital doors. Yes the cure is worse than the disease No the mortality rate is not 1% A virus does not infect 100% of the population A lockdown was needed back in March to take some precaution against something that was considered brand new. Now, not so much. |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 22, 2020 10:45:48 GMT
How many of those are due to other causes, lack of treatment. I know two older persons that were healthy before lockdown, and died within 4 months, non COVID related. If they were able to live their normal lives, I reckon the would still be here today. Suicide rates are also up since lockdown. So what, that makes the cure worse than the disease? Think of the numbers that would be dead now if we take no action. Hundreds of thousands. The estimated morality rate for coronavirus is 1%. There are 60 million people in this country. If no action was taken and the virus was allowed to freely infect the population, we would be looking at several hundred thousand deaths, not to mention even more from "lack of treatment" as you put it - as we would quite literally be dumping people outside hospital doors. But you cannot ignore the fact that the way of recording figures is flawed. Dying within 28 days of a COVID positive test is not a cover all. I could test positive tomorrow and get hit by a bus on the way home and still get recorded as a COVID death when accurately I died by getting hit by a bus. Likewise I could have terminal liver cancer and test positive and die within the 28 days even though it was likely I was going to die anyway. I am not discounting what you’re saying but the method of recording is fairly inaccurate. We should be questioning how many purely COVID deaths with no other factors like age or health condition there are and the answer is not many at all. |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 22, 2020 10:47:39 GMT
So what, that makes the cure worse than the disease? Think of the numbers that would be dead now if we take no action. Hundreds of thousands. The estimated morality rate for coronavirus is 1%. There are 60 million people in this country. If no action was taken and the virus was allowed to freely infect the population, we would be looking at several hundred thousand deaths, not to mention even more from "lack of treatment" as you put it - as we would quite literally be dumping people outside hospital doors. Yes the cure is worse than the disease No the mortality rate is not 1% A virus does not infect 100% of the population A lockdown was needed back in March to take some precaution against something that was considered brand new. Now, not so much. WHO estimate mortality rate is between 0.5 and 1% so could indeed be as high as 1%. I did not say it would infect 100% of the population, even if it infected 40% we would still be looking at hundreds of thousands of deaths. Precautions are still required. A national lockdown is certainly not the answer, but local measures, and the national mitigations certainly are. |
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Post by SILENCED on Oct 22, 2020 10:56:47 GMT
How many of those are due to other causes, lack of treatment. I know two older persons that were healthy before lockdown, and died within 4 months, non COVID related. If they were able to live their normal lives, I reckon the would still be here today. Suicide rates are also up since lockdown. So what, that makes the cure worse than the disease? Think of the numbers that would be dead now if we take no action. Hundreds of thousands. The estimated morality rate for coronavirus is 1%. There are 60 million people in this country. If no action was taken and the virus was allowed to freely infect the population, we would be looking at several hundred thousand deaths, not to mention even more from "lack of treatment" as you put it - as we would quite literally be dumping people outside hospital doors. In June an antibody test suggest 13% of the 9 million London population have had the virus. To date 6,885 people have died in London with COVID as a stated cause. If no new cases have been recorded since end of June, that makes death rate to be a little over 0.6% So for London that is maximum figure, but 5 months worth of infections (not all officially recorded) to add to that calculation, it is going to be considerably smaller. And this is a figure where COVID has been confirmed, not necessarily the cause of death. What we do not know is what % of the population would not get the virus as their immune system would instantly reject it. |
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Post by SILENCED on Oct 22, 2020 11:27:30 GMT
So what, that makes the cure worse than the disease? Think of the numbers that would be dead now if we take no action. Hundreds of thousands. The estimated morality rate for coronavirus is 1%. There are 60 million people in this country. If no action was taken and the virus was allowed to freely infect the population, we would be looking at several hundred thousand deaths, not to mention even more from "lack of treatment" as you put it - as we would quite literally be dumping people outside hospital doors. In June an antibody test suggest 13% of the 9 million London population have had the virus. To date 6,885 people have died in London with COVID as a stated cause. If no new cases have been recorded since end of June, that makes death rate to be a little over 0.6% So for London that is maximum figure, but 5 months worth of infections (not all officially recorded) to add to that calculation, it is going to be considerably smaller. And this is a figure where COVID has been confirmed, not necessarily the cause of death. What we do not know is what % of the population would not get the virus as their immune system would instantly reject it. No lockdown in Sweden from BBC website "Cases are also increasing in Sweden - whose population is 10 million - though not as rapidly as in European hotspots such as Belgium, the Netherlands, France and the UK." So Sweden where they are no longer advising over 75s to shield cases are increasing slower than those in the UK www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-54643070 |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 22, 2020 11:38:38 GMT
Interesting England & Wales death stats issued today especially for flu and pneumonia. Just 394 deaths recorded flu as a cause of death, when 5 year average is in excess of 20,000. 13,619 deaths recorded pneumonia as cause of death when every one of the previous 5 years has been in excess of 30,000 So have over 37,000 lives really been saved, or just transfered to a different column? Different column. Remember people showing up having passed away with covid , not of covid necessarily. |
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Post by vjaska on Oct 22, 2020 11:44:21 GMT
In June an antibody test suggest 13% of the 9 million London population have had the virus. To date 6,885 people have died in London with COVID as a stated cause. If no new cases have been recorded since end of June, that makes death rate to be a little over 0.6% So for London that is maximum figure, but 5 months worth of infections (not all officially recorded) to add to that calculation, it is going to be considerably smaller. And this is a figure where COVID has been confirmed, not necessarily the cause of death. What we do not know is what % of the population would not get the virus as their immune system would instantly reject it. No lockdown in Sweden from BBC website "Cases are also increasing in Sweden - whose population is 10 million - though not as rapidly as in European hotspots such as Belgium, the Netherlands, France and the UK." So Sweden where they are no longer advising over 75s to shield cases are increasing slower than those in the UK www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-54643070Sweden's figures have been disputed previously so I'd urge caution on that point |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 22, 2020 11:52:58 GMT
Stay home, save the NHS and emptying hospitals in March were the two biggest causes of more deaths.
I saw people in hospital gowns wandering home in March. I saw a man with suspected covid thrown out of a hospital because he was causing a nuisance. Maybe he was delirious. A symptom of serious covid.
I have been to suicides, where people have cited in their notes that they can’t cope with the lockdown.
I have been to deaths in homes , possibly because the deceased had a medical issue they didn’t get addressed sooner because they were staying at home to protect the NHS.
Sensible precautions are needed. Do I need to wear a face mask on an open air train platform ? I don’t think so. But on a crowded tube train, yes. Common sense.
Should I be able to have a meal and a drink socially with some friends , none of whom have symptoms, in my home or in a pub ? Yes.
Should people stay at home when they are symptomatic, yes
Should I be prevented from travelling to France to see my elderly parents, no. ( I know I could but I can’t because I can’t afford to take 14 days unpaid leave afterwards)
Should people be tested upon arrival and departure from the UK , yes.
Should a whole school year be sent home to isolate for 14 days because one person tested positive,no. Keep to bubbles and send home only those who have been in close contact.
Can we actually control a virus that is so widespread now, no.
Should we behave like adults, accept our own mortality and behave responsibly , of course we should .
I don’t think our governing figures can any longer control the virus, so why should they try and assert more and more control over us?
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Post by Eastlondoner62 on Oct 22, 2020 12:30:10 GMT
Stay home, save the NHS and emptying hospitals in March were the two biggest causes of more deaths. 1. I saw people in hospital gowns wandering home in March. I saw a man with suspected covid thrown out of a hospital because he was causing a nuisance. Maybe he was delirious. A symptom of serious covid. 2. I have been to suicides, where people have cited in their notes that they can’t cope with the lockdown. 3. I have been to deaths in homes , possibly because the deceased had a medical issue they didn’t get addressed sooner because they were staying at home to protect the NHS. 4. Sensible precautions are needed. Do I need to wear a face mask on an open air train platform ? I don’t think so. But on a crowded tube train, yes. Common sense. 5. Should I be able to have a meal and a drink socially with some friends , none of whom have symptoms, in my home or in a pub ? Yes. 6. Should people stay at home when they are symptomatic, yes 7. Should I be prevented from travelling to France to see my elderly parents, no. ( I know I could but I can’t because I can’t afford to take 14 days unpaid leave afterwards) 8. Should people be tested upon arrival and departure from the UK , yes. 9. Should a whole school year be sent home to isolate for 14 days because one person tested positive,no. Keep to bubbles and send home only those who have been in close contact. 10. Can we actually control a virus that is so widespread now, no. 11. Should we behave like adults, accept our own mortality and behave responsibly , of course we should . 12. I don’t think our governing figures can any longer control the virus, so why should they try and assert more and more control over us? Few things to note, I've labelled your points so that I can address them here. 2. This is true, however the virus does spread when people get into close contact. Lockdown is an effective solution of managing this, as the British public do not listen otherwise. 4. If this open air tube platform is really crowded, then a face mask does help in such situations and should be worn unless you are exempt. 5. They might not have symptoms, but you don't know if they're asymptomatic. If they are asymptomatic they can easily spread it within the group and this virus has a substantial proportion where people are asymptomatic. Would be very foolish to want to go out drinking at a time like this. You don't know who they can spread it to, and who it will then keep spreading through along the chain. 7. The 14 day quarantine is the only way to prevent the virus from taking a stronghold through uncontrolled immigration. What's the use if we follow rules in here, but people keep shipping it in through another country? 8. This costs a lot of money and it's cheaper to impose the 14 day quarantine. People who have pressing needs to leave the country will need to balance out the costs and take a decision, there's far too many people who are going for holidays at this time and that's something that doesn't help matters. 9. How on earth do you know where a kid has been through their day in school? Children are far more likely to display mild symptoms and the virus might not be recognised in them as early as it would be in adults. It's far more cautious to send the whole year group home, however I believe in this case the quarantine period should be reduced for those who do not start to display any symptoms 10. Doesn't mean we let it ravage the population 12. This is a side effect of the totally useless government, should a government have known what it was doing like the Arden administration in New Zealand, people would have far more faith in the government. |
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Post by SILENCED on Oct 22, 2020 12:41:06 GMT
Stay home, save the NHS and emptying hospitals in March were the two biggest causes of more deaths. 1. I saw people in hospital gowns wandering home in March. I saw a man with suspected covid thrown out of a hospital because he was causing a nuisance. Maybe he was delirious. A symptom of serious covid. 2. I have been to suicides, where people have cited in their notes that they can’t cope with the lockdown. 3. I have been to deaths in homes , possibly because the deceased had a medical issue they didn’t get addressed sooner because they were staying at home to protect the NHS. 4. Sensible precautions are needed. Do I need to wear a face mask on an open air train platform ? I don’t think so. But on a crowded tube train, yes. Common sense. 5. Should I be able to have a meal and a drink socially with some friends , none of whom have symptoms, in my home or in a pub ? Yes. 6. Should people stay at home when they are symptomatic, yes 7. Should I be prevented from travelling to France to see my elderly parents, no. ( I know I could but I can’t because I can’t afford to take 14 days unpaid leave afterwards) 8. Should people be tested upon arrival and departure from the UK , yes. 9. Should a whole school year be sent home to isolate for 14 days because one person tested positive,no. Keep to bubbles and send home only those who have been in close contact. 10. Can we actually control a virus that is so widespread now, no. 11. Should we behave like adults, accept our own mortality and behave responsibly , of course we should . 12. I don’t think our governing figures can any longer control the virus, so why should they try and assert more and more control over us? Few things to note, I've labelled your points so that I can address them here. 2. This is true, however the virus does spread when people get into close contact. Lockdown is an effective solution of managing this, as the British public do not listen otherwise. 4. If this open air tube platform is really crowded, then a face mask does help in such situations and should be worn unless you are exempt. 5. They might not have symptoms, but you don't know if they're asymptomatic. If they are asymptomatic they can easily spread it within the group and this virus has a substantial proportion where people are asymptomatic. Would be very foolish to want to go out drinking at a time like this. You don't know who they can spread it to, and who it will then keep spreading through along the chain. 7. The 14 day quarantine is the only way to prevent the virus from taking a stronghold through uncontrolled immigration. What's the use if we follow rules in here, but people keep shipping it in through another country? 8. This costs a lot of money and it's cheaper to impose the 14 day quarantine. People who have pressing needs to leave the country will need to balance out the costs and take a decision, there's far too many people who are going for holidays at this time and that's something that doesn't help matters. 9. How on earth do you know where a kid has been through their day in school? Children are far more likely to display mild symptoms and the virus might not be recognised in them as early as it would be in adults. It's far more cautious to send the whole year group home, however I believe in this case the quarantine period should be reduced for those who do not start to display any symptoms 10. Doesn't mean we let it ravage the population 12. This is a side effect of the totally useless government, should a government have known what it was doing like the Arden administration in New Zealand, people would have far more faith in the government. 5. I don't think there is any evidence it is easily spread by asymptomatic carriers. If you not coughing or sneezing you are not performing the major causes of spreading. 8. Many other countries are managing to do it ... why should not we? 10 It is doing that anyway .... should it be drawn out over a long period creating greater economic hardship for everyone. Probably 20-25% of Londoners have had it now, if it was 13% in June. |
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Post by vjaska on Oct 22, 2020 13:33:19 GMT
I don’t think our governing figures can any longer control the virus, so why should they try and assert more and more control over us? Sorry but can we stop with the conspiracy theories please - next you'll be telling me 5G causes Covid! |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 22, 2020 14:07:14 GMT
I don’t think our governing figures can any longer control the virus, so why should they try and assert more and more control over us? Sorry but can we stop with the conspiracy theories please - next you'll be telling me 5G causes Covid! Don't tarnish me with those nutters please, I'll take it as personal insult. |
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