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Post by exbox on Sept 26, 2023 14:34:24 GMT
The only reason that bus fleets have been replaced after 14 years is that newer/better/cleaner tech is available. Who's to say that will continue? Difficult to improve on zero emission - these EVs might have a 30 year life for all we know. I very much doubt they will have a 30 year lifespan - buses aren't built to last that long unlike in the 50's to 80's and I imagine they will achieve a similar lifespan to the current stock before being replaced by even more advanced electric vehicles (better range in particular) They won't need more range. Once they have got enough range to do a day's work, any additional range adds weight and cost for no gain. |
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Post by exbox on Sept 26, 2023 14:40:05 GMT
I very much doubt they will have a 30 year lifespan - buses aren't built to last that long unlike in the 50's to 80's and I imagine they will achieve a similar lifespan to the current stock before being replaced by even more advanced electric vehicles (better range in particular) I agree. Things like batteries will get smaller with better storage capacity, just as engines got smaller on diesel vehicles. Then it’s inevitable that someone will create new tech that doesn’t require lithium. In the past 20 years there has always been a sound reason to replace diesel buses every 14 years as the technology has moved on in response to emissions regs. That imperative won't exist any more. For sure new EVs will get more energy dense batteries etc and EVs of 2030 are bound to be more capable than those on sale today - but the point is that there won't be any need to get the latest tech just for the sake of it. Mobile phones get better every year but the improvements are only incremental nowadays. I can see the same thing happening with electric commercial vehicles. |
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Post by southlondon413 on Sept 26, 2023 14:56:32 GMT
I agree. Things like batteries will get smaller with better storage capacity, just as engines got smaller on diesel vehicles. Then it’s inevitable that someone will create new tech that doesn’t require lithium. In the past 20 years there has always been a sound reason to replace diesel buses every 14 years as the technology has moved on in response to emissions regs. That imperative won't exist any more. For sure new EVs will get more energy dense batteries etc and EVs of 2030 are bound to be more capable than those on sale today - but the point is that there won't be any need to get the latest tech just for the sake of it. Mobile phones get better every year but the improvements are only incremental nowadays. I can see the same thing happening with electric commercial vehicles. Like a phone, smaller and more powerful batteries increase capabilities. For example where there is no rear lower deck window on an ADL EV in ten years there could be. There could be more seats because batteries get smaller enabling higher capacities. They might be small changes but ultimately they will be good ones. If a company can unlock batteries that don’t require lithium then that is a game changer for green energy, likewise if fusion power can be achieved, which it very much could be in the near future. They might only be small changes but it’s a process. I’m sure someone will have said the same thing about a modern low floor diesel bus 20 years ago but here we are. |
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Post by exbox on Sept 26, 2023 16:24:12 GMT
In the past 20 years there has always been a sound reason to replace diesel buses every 14 years as the technology has moved on in response to emissions regs. That imperative won't exist any more. For sure new EVs will get more energy dense batteries etc and EVs of 2030 are bound to be more capable than those on sale today - but the point is that there won't be any need to get the latest tech just for the sake of it. Mobile phones get better every year but the improvements are only incremental nowadays. I can see the same thing happening with electric commercial vehicles. Like a phone, smaller and more powerful batteries increase capabilities. For example where there is no rear lower deck window on an ADL EV in ten years there could be. There could be more seats because batteries get smaller enabling higher capacities. They might be small changes but ultimately they will be good ones. If a company can unlock batteries that don’t require lithium then that is a game changer for green energy, likewise if fusion power can be achieved, which it very much could be in the near future. They might only be small changes but it’s a process. I’m sure someone will have said the same thing about a modern low floor diesel bus 20 years ago but here we are. Agreed - but I doubt that TfL would fund a new fleet to replace an existing fleet just because they can have a rear window or can seat half a dozen more passengers. Even if we do move to sodium-ion batteries the lithium battery fleets won't be replaced because of it. As I said - EVs of 2030 are bound to be more capable than those of today, but it doesn't mean that today's EVs will necessarily be replaced by them. There won't be the requirement to change fleets regularly like there has been since the tendering programme began. I can see an EV lasting 30 years with a battery replacement half way through. |
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Post by vjaska on Sept 26, 2023 16:25:49 GMT
I very much doubt they will have a 30 year lifespan - buses aren't built to last that long unlike in the 50's to 80's and I imagine they will achieve a similar lifespan to the current stock before being replaced by even more advanced electric vehicles (better range in particular) They won't need more range. Once they have got enough range to do a day's work, any additional range adds weight and cost for no gain. But that’s the point - the current buses have limited range hence why many use diesels or hybrids at night so the next step is for that to increase and for charging to become even quicker. Even with all that, my original point still stands - buses aren’t built to last these days compared to the ones built in the 50’s to 80’s which could achieve 20+ year lifespans |
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Post by southlondon413 on Sept 26, 2023 16:47:23 GMT
Like a phone, smaller and more powerful batteries increase capabilities. For example where there is no rear lower deck window on an ADL EV in ten years there could be. There could be more seats because batteries get smaller enabling higher capacities. They might be small changes but ultimately they will be good ones. If a company can unlock batteries that don’t require lithium then that is a game changer for green energy, likewise if fusion power can be achieved, which it very much could be in the near future. They might only be small changes but it’s a process. I’m sure someone will have said the same thing about a modern low floor diesel bus 20 years ago but here we are. Agreed - but I doubt that TfL would fund a new fleet to replace an existing fleet just because they can have a rear window or can seat half a dozen more passengers. Even if we do move to sodium-ion batteries the lithium battery fleets won't be replaced because of it. As I said - EVs of 2030 are bound to be more capable than those of today, but it doesn't mean that today's EVs will necessarily be replaced by them. There won't be the requirement to change fleets regularly like there has been since the tendering programme began. I can see an EV lasting 30 years with a battery replacement half way through. Time and time again there have been examples of that in TfLs and it’s predecessors history. Buses get replaced, even by Saturday the C3 will begin a new contract at a new operator with new EVs. That’s the reality of TfL. So I don’t think a vehicle introduced today will still be with TfL in 30 years, it’s very unlikely. Particularly as charging equipment will get cheaper and operators outside cities look to secondhand fleets. Exactly as they did with low floor vehicles. TfL is still a trendsetter and has massive sway in terms of vehicles, they will help drive down prices of EVs by keeping a constant steady supply coming in. Just as TfL and its predecessors helped bring low floor buses to the used market. I get where you’re coming from but I don’t see TfL changing its policies especially as specifications change and EV tech advances. We need bodies like TfL to help manufacturers advance. That won’t happen if TfL decides not to replace anything for 30 years beyond a route being awarded to a new operator. |
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Post by allentc on Sept 26, 2023 17:00:16 GMT
Even with all that, my original point still stands - buses aren’t built to last these days compared to the ones built in the 50’s to 80’s which could achieve 20+ year lifespans Indeed, in the brochures for new buses - or certainly ADL used to in theirs - they talk about "a design life" of 14 or 15 years.
Its the modern electronics that is a big reason. Lots of cars go for scrap not because the basic mechanics or bodywork are poor (i.e. rust resistance) but because an element of the electronics have failed and it is too expensive to diagnose and procure a replacement module and there is no repair service available. If you want say a body control module for a car from 2003 chances are its NLA from the car manufacturer today, or it may be limited stock (only a handful left in the country) in which case the price will be £££ or you have to resort to a scrapyard and hopefully find one with matching part numbers. This is further exasperated by the fact that modules are often coded to specific cars and so you need software to reprogram it. Who has an old XP laptop today running legacy software and hardware capable of reflashing a module from the early 2000s. |
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Post by LD71YLO (BE37054) on Sept 27, 2023 18:22:18 GMT
The bus involved in the tragic Croydon incident this morning was DW310, as seen on ITV News this evening.
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Post by ilovelondonbuses on Sept 27, 2023 18:45:57 GMT
The bus involved in the tragic Croydon incident this morning was DW310, as seen on ITV News this evening. Absoutely horrible day here in Croydon. This news shocked me to the core. My condolences to the victim’s family and friends. Also, my best regards to the bus driver of DW310 who tried to save the young girl’s life. Hope he gets the support he needs after such a tragic incident. |
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Post by COBO on Sept 27, 2023 19:33:54 GMT
I wonder if HVs from the 50 (if retained or not) or the 133 will see of the T’s on 466.
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Post by DT 11 on Sept 27, 2023 19:41:13 GMT
I wonder if HVs from the 50 (if retained or not) or the 133 will see of the T’s on 466. The 466 is allocated DW542-DW554, HV49-HV56. The Ts were replaced shortly after the 319 went Electric with HV145-HV152 moving to DT to allow HV49-56 to move to TC. |
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Post by YX10FFN on Sept 27, 2023 22:33:31 GMT
SLS23 stopped tracking this morning and I saw a video on Instagram that was part of the eyewitness reaction to the incident in Croydon and it showed SLS23 with its hazards on. Wonder how it was involved?
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Post by cybermike137 on Sept 28, 2023 3:31:53 GMT
SLS23 stopped tracking this morning and I saw a video on Instagram that was part of the eyewitness reaction to the incident in Croydon and it showed SLS23 with its hazards on. Wonder how it was involved? The driver of SLS23 witnessed everything that had happened and really affected the driver so much, crying and everything. Went off sick, parked up the bus and went. |
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Post by YX10FFN on Sept 28, 2023 8:59:37 GMT
SLS23 stopped tracking this morning and I saw a video on Instagram that was part of the eyewitness reaction to the incident in Croydon and it showed SLS23 with its hazards on. Wonder how it was involved? The driver of SLS23 witnessed everything that had happened and really affected the driver so much, crying and everything. Went off sick, parked up the bus and went. Really sorry to hear that. Hope the driver of the 60 and this driver are getting the support they need. |
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Post by twobellstogo on Sept 28, 2023 9:15:12 GMT
SLS23 stopped tracking this morning and I saw a video on Instagram that was part of the eyewitness reaction to the incident in Croydon and it showed SLS23 with its hazards on. Wonder how it was involved? The driver of SLS23 witnessed everything that had happened and really affected the driver so much, crying and everything. Went off sick, parked up the bus and went. A horrible and tragic event, hope everyone is receiving the support they need. SLS23 hasn’t been used since, and it wouldn’t surprise me if both this and DW310 are sent for a long spell in the Met Police’s vehicle compound, to join another Arriva bus, T318. |
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