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Post by Eastlondoner62 on Sept 3, 2022 14:52:03 GMT
The excess HVs at AR could easily be swapped out when DW501-514 become free from their duties at E, which are yet to begin. I can personally see 417 & 157 going G3 HV. W3, in my eyes will either be electric or take HAs. Well we could say the same about the parked up 59-reg DWs at TC, as those 11-reg at AR, but we have been assured they will return to service. Been thinking about this a little more. Can see Arriva pushing for the 221 & W3 with hybrids. They won't want to pay for electrification just before they plan to redevelop WN Could also be playing with fire trying to force new electrics when you already have spare Hybrids flying around the company. While it's good for them to think about the competition, the "form" the competition has been in recent years alongside the competition's availability of buses. Operators probably will be more cautious in their bids now. But the other flip is that operators still will want work in order to make a profit. Metroline have a lot of space available, both HT and PB both have electricity supplies and chances are will be able to then put in cheaper electric bids than if Arriva was to, unless Arriva want to absorb the cost of temporarily electrifying WN themselves. PB have space for the 221, while HT have space for both the W3 and 279. I don't think Arriva would go for electrics on any of those routes if they could help it. This doesn't even take into account any spare vehicles Metroline may have following their own central London cuts, and if the central London changes go ahead the 214 could even move to SW to make some room at NP for further gains which could pose yet another risk to that tranche. This is all then reliant on the 4th route in that tranche, the 38. While a huge route, half its journeys terminate in the garage and the fact it will continue with existing should work in Arriva's favour. It will most likely play a vital part in any joint bid that will happen. Anything that will raise a cost in a joint bid could result in other routes also in the joint bid falling through. Last time with Stagecoach in 2018, should the 8 have not managed to subsidise the 205 bid then chances are the 205 would have been lost. If the W3 or 221 bids end up tipping a joint bid over to a point the 279 and 38 now have cheaper operators on single bids TfL will probably not even hesitate to award either routes to other operators. Stagecoach already had possession of LI weeks before the 38s tender return, and chances are they knew of it even before that so I'd be very surprised if the 38 doesn't have a bit coming in from LI too. Going south for the 417 and 157, both routes again have competition down there. N is yet to be electrified while BC, QB, AL, C etc all are. It will be very interesting to see what happens tender wise down there, especially with Abellio and Go Ahead having many recent tender successes, and getting a head start to electrics.
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Post by southlondon413 on Sept 3, 2022 14:52:04 GMT
The excess HVs at AR could easily be swapped out when DW501-514 become free from their duties at E, which are yet to begin. I can personally see 417 & 157 going G3 HV. W3, in my eyes will either be electric or take HAs. Well we could say the same about the parked up 59-reg DWs at TC, as those 11-reg at AR, but we have been assured they will return to service. Been thinking about this a little more. Can see Arriva pushing for the 221 & W3 with hybrids. They won't want to pay for electrification just before they plan to redevelop WN Perhaps we may see a situation where Arriva retain the W3 with electrics but it is upgraded mid-contract once any redevelopment to WN is completed.
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Post by WH241 on Sept 3, 2022 14:58:26 GMT
Been thinking about this a little more. Can see Arriva pushing for the 221 & W3 with hybrids. They won't want to pay for electrification just before they plan to redevelop WN Could also be playing with fire trying to force new electrics when you already have spare Hybrids flying around the company. While it's good for them to think about the competition, the "form" the competition has been in recent years alongside the competition's availability of buses. Operators probably will be more cautious in their bids now. But the other flip is that operators still will want work in order to make a profit. Metroline have a lot of space available, both HT and PB both have electricity supplies and chances are will be able to then put in cheaper electric bids than if Arriva was to, unless Arriva want to absorb the cost of temporarily electrifying WN themselves. PB have space for the 221, while HT have space for both the W3 and 279. I don't think Arriva would go for electrics on any of those routes if they could help it. This doesn't even take into account any spare vehicles Metroline may have following their own central London cuts, and if the central London changes go ahead the 214 could even move to SW to make some room at NP for further gains which could pose yet another risk to that tranche. This is all then reliant on the 4th route in that tranche, the 38. While a huge route, half its journeys terminate in the garage and the fact it will continue with existing should work in Arriva's favour. It will most likely play a vital part in any joint bid that will happen. Anything that will raise a cost in a joint bid could result in other routes also in the joint bid falling through. Last time with Stagecoach in 2018, should the 8 have not managed to subsidise the 205 bid then chances are the 205 would have been lost. If the W3 or 221 bids end up tipping a joint bid over to a point the 279 and 38 now have cheaper operators on single bids TfL will probably not even hesitate to award either routes to other operators. Stagecoach already had possession of LI weeks before the 38s tender return, and chances are they knew of it even before that so I'd be very surprised if the 38 doesn't have a bit coming in from LI too. Going south for the 417 and 157, both routes again have competition down there. N is yet to be electrified while BC, QB, AL, C etc all are. It will be very interesting to see what happens tender wise down there, especially with Abellio and Go Ahead having many recent tender successes, and getting a head start to electrics. I imagine if Stagecoach did gain the 38 they would now take the opportunity to run it from HK much like when the route used bendy buses. Having said that I would be shocked if Arriva lost the route.
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Post by Eastlondoner62 on Sept 3, 2022 15:09:48 GMT
Could also be playing with fire trying to force new electrics when you already have spare Hybrids flying around the company. While it's good for them to think about the competition, the "form" the competition has been in recent years alongside the competition's availability of buses. Operators probably will be more cautious in their bids now. But the other flip is that operators still will want work in order to make a profit. Metroline have a lot of space available, both HT and PB both have electricity supplies and chances are will be able to then put in cheaper electric bids than if Arriva was to, unless Arriva want to absorb the cost of temporarily electrifying WN themselves. PB have space for the 221, while HT have space for both the W3 and 279. I don't think Arriva would go for electrics on any of those routes if they could help it. This doesn't even take into account any spare vehicles Metroline may have following their own central London cuts, and if the central London changes go ahead the 214 could even move to SW to make some room at NP for further gains which could pose yet another risk to that tranche. This is all then reliant on the 4th route in that tranche, the 38. While a huge route, half its journeys terminate in the garage and the fact it will continue with existing should work in Arriva's favour. It will most likely play a vital part in any joint bid that will happen. Anything that will raise a cost in a joint bid could result in other routes also in the joint bid falling through. Last time with Stagecoach in 2018, should the 8 have not managed to subsidise the 205 bid then chances are the 205 would have been lost. If the W3 or 221 bids end up tipping a joint bid over to a point the 279 and 38 now have cheaper operators on single bids TfL will probably not even hesitate to award either routes to other operators. Stagecoach already had possession of LI weeks before the 38s tender return, and chances are they knew of it even before that so I'd be very surprised if the 38 doesn't have a bit coming in from LI too. Going south for the 417 and 157, both routes again have competition down there. N is yet to be electrified while BC, QB, AL, C etc all are. It will be very interesting to see what happens tender wise down there, especially with Abellio and Go Ahead having many recent tender successes, and getting a head start to electrics. I imagine if Stagecoach did gain the 38 they would now take the opportunity to run it from HK much like when the route used bendy buses. Having said that I would be shocked if Arriva lost the route. Can't imagine HK has anywhere near the required amount of space, ever since the 26 win HCT didn't manage to fit anything in there and the D6 only came when the 153 left. LI currently has space for the 38 (and a lot more) so I think it would go there.
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Post by MetrolineGA1511 on Sept 3, 2022 15:13:56 GMT
I imagine if Stagecoach did gain the 38 they would now take the opportunity to run it from HK much like when the route used bendy buses. Having said that I would be shocked if Arriva lost the route. Can't imagine HK has anywhere near the required amount of space, ever since the 26 win HCT didn't manage to fit anything in there and the D6 only came when the 153 left. LI currently has space for the 38 (and a lot more) so I think it would go there. I think route 388 would be reallocated to LI if extra space is needed at HK.
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Post by wirewiper on Sept 3, 2022 15:27:34 GMT
The excess HVs at AR could easily be swapped out when DW501-514 become free from their duties at E, which are yet to begin. I can personally see 417 & 157 going G3 HV. W3, in my eyes will either be electric or take HAs. Well we could say the same about the parked up 59-reg DWs at TC, as those 11-reg at AR, but we have been assured they will return to service. Been thinking about this a little more. Can see Arriva pushing for the 221 & W3 with hybrids. They won't want to pay for electrification just before they plan to redevelop WN Fair point, but if WN is going to close in the near future anyway so it can be redeveloped, Arriva could electrify another depot and run them out of there. That depot would then be available for future electric route conversions when the new WN opens.
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Post by WH241 on Sept 3, 2022 15:46:40 GMT
I imagine if Stagecoach did gain the 38 they would now take the opportunity to run it from HK much like when the route used bendy buses. Having said that I would be shocked if Arriva lost the route. Can't imagine HK has anywhere near the required amount of space, ever since the 26 win HCT didn't manage to fit anything in there and the D6 only came when the 153 left. LI currently has space for the 38 (and a lot more) so I think it would go there. 26 and 388 could easily be worked from LI if retained. The 38 to me personally seems more logical from HK and slightly easier for driver changes.
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Post by Eastlondoner62 on Sept 3, 2022 15:51:47 GMT
Can't imagine HK has anywhere near the required amount of space, ever since the 26 win HCT didn't manage to fit anything in there and the D6 only came when the 153 left. LI currently has space for the 38 (and a lot more) so I think it would go there. 26 and 388 could easily be worked from LI if retained. The 38 to me personally seems more logical from HK and slightly easier for driver changes. It shouldn't be that much different from LI, with LI just being around the corner from Clapton Pond. The 38s bids would have also gone in before the HK acquisition so I'd imagine all the costs would have been done out of LI if Stagecoach bid.
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Post by VMH2537 on Sept 3, 2022 16:01:17 GMT
I would imagine the 279 will run from PB rather than HT mainly PB already has work from Waltham Cross which operates the 317 and the 491 respectively aswell operated the 217 from there in the past. Manor House is a considerable distance from HT and will be further if the Stamford Hill reroute proposal goes ahead.
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Post by vjaska on Sept 3, 2022 16:19:41 GMT
Been thinking about this a little more. Can see Arriva pushing for the 221 & W3 with hybrids. They won't want to pay for electrification just before they plan to redevelop WN Fair point, but if WN is going to close in the near future anyway so it can be redeveloped, Arriva could electrify another depot and run them out of there. That depot would then be available for future electric route conversions when the new WN opens. There was talk on here that SF was going to be electrified despite not being used for any routes at present so maybe when WN closes for it's rebuild, SF comes into play?
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Post by DT 11 on Sept 3, 2022 16:25:54 GMT
Been thinking about this a little more. Can see Arriva pushing for the 221 & W3 with hybrids. They won't want to pay for electrification just before they plan to redevelop WN Perhaps we may see a situation where Arriva retain the W3 with electrics but it is upgraded mid-contract once any redevelopment to WN is completed. Bare in mind Stamford Hill is there and could be used to run Electrics on the route.
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Post by ADH45258 on Sept 3, 2022 16:44:56 GMT
Fair point, but if WN is going to close in the near future anyway so it can be redeveloped, Arriva could electrify another depot and run them out of there. That depot would then be available for future electric route conversions when the new WN opens. There was talk on here that SF was going to be electrified despite not being used for any routes at present so maybe when WN closes for it's rebuild, SF comes into play? SF could also be ideal for the 279 if it gets rerouted to Stamford Hill
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Post by TB123 on Sept 3, 2022 16:53:48 GMT
I would imagine the 279 will run from PB rather than HT mainly PB already has work from Waltham Cross which operates the 317 and the 491 respectively aswell operated the 217 from there in the past. Manor House is a considerable distance from HT and will be further if the Stamford Hill reroute proposal goes ahead. I was thinking just that. Drivers could travel by chauffeur (GAL talk for ferry buses) to North Finchley and Waltham Cross if the 221 and 279 as mentioned on this thread went to Metroline
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Post by ADH45258 on Sept 3, 2022 16:54:16 GMT
Could also be playing with fire trying to force new electrics when you already have spare Hybrids flying around the company. While it's good for them to think about the competition, the "form" the competition has been in recent years alongside the competition's availability of buses. Operators probably will be more cautious in their bids now. But the other flip is that operators still will want work in order to make a profit. Metroline have a lot of space available, both HT and PB both have electricity supplies and chances are will be able to then put in cheaper electric bids than if Arriva was to, unless Arriva want to absorb the cost of temporarily electrifying WN themselves. PB have space for the 221, while HT have space for both the W3 and 279. I don't think Arriva would go for electrics on any of those routes if they could help it. This doesn't even take into account any spare vehicles Metroline may have following their own central London cuts, and if the central London changes go ahead the 214 could even move to SW to make some room at NP for further gains which could pose yet another risk to that tranche. This is all then reliant on the 4th route in that tranche, the 38. While a huge route, half its journeys terminate in the garage and the fact it will continue with existing should work in Arriva's favour. It will most likely play a vital part in any joint bid that will happen. Anything that will raise a cost in a joint bid could result in other routes also in the joint bid falling through. Last time with Stagecoach in 2018, should the 8 have not managed to subsidise the 205 bid then chances are the 205 would have been lost. If the W3 or 221 bids end up tipping a joint bid over to a point the 279 and 38 now have cheaper operators on single bids TfL will probably not even hesitate to award either routes to other operators. Stagecoach already had possession of LI weeks before the 38s tender return, and chances are they knew of it even before that so I'd be very surprised if the 38 doesn't have a bit coming in from LI too. Going south for the 417 and 157, both routes again have competition down there. N is yet to be electrified while BC, QB, AL, C etc all are. It will be very interesting to see what happens tender wise down there, especially with Abellio and Go Ahead having many recent tender successes, and getting a head start to electrics. I imagine if Stagecoach did gain the 38 they would now take the opportunity to run it from HK much like when the route used bendy buses. Having said that I would be shocked if Arriva lost the route. I there's still a reasonable chance Arriva could lose the 38, it probably depends on how competitive the bids are. On previous retenders, the 38 would have been seen as a very safe retain due to the large PVR, with other operators unlikely to find space. But the 38 has since been reduced significantly, and could easily fit at LI, or even QB at the other end? One advantage Arriva do have though, it that they also currently run the rest of the routes in the same tranche (221/279/W3). But then the 279 or W3 could be lost to another operator if existing vehicles are available, particularly Metroline who could use the ex-91/271 hybrids. I also wonder if the 279 might become an LT route, if the 349 withdrawal goes ahead?
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Post by ADH45258 on Sept 3, 2022 16:58:49 GMT
I would imagine the 279 will run from PB rather than HT mainly PB already has work from Waltham Cross which operates the 317 and the 491 respectively aswell operated the 217 from there in the past. Manor House is a considerable distance from HT and will be further if the Stamford Hill reroute proposal goes ahead. I was thinking just that. Drivers could travel by chauffeur (GAL talk for ferry buses) to North Finchley and Waltham Cross if the 221 and 279 as mentioned on this thread went to Metroline I think the 221 would more likely go to EW if won (with a further reshuffle to make space), particularly as the 251 is going there rather than PB. Similarly, RATP could move the 13 back to X if they were to win the 221 - however I think it will most likely be retained with the current HVs. The 279 to PB could work though, plenty of space from the 34/125/307, though again I think will likely be a retain, either with new electrics or LTs.
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