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Post by northlondon83 on Jul 2, 2023 21:46:17 GMT
We've already got parrots flying around, not sure what that ad was even aiming at. The ULEZ expansion is good in its concept, get rid of the highest polluting cars. Although the question now becomes what's being done about other means of pollution? Sadiq can wage war on motorists, but where is all the fuss about the smokers who go around spewing cancer fumes to everyone and force themselves into a bus stop just to then force everyone else out? Bus stops are no smoking zones but there's pretty much zero enforcement on any of that. Where is all the fuss about all the industrial areas in London where factories pollute? Heck, where is all the fuss about littering? Not to mention more people here are killed by knife crime than by pollution (although that's also a fault of Central government too). I understand the ULEZ, but I don't understand why it's being introduced as a ridiculous cash grab exercise. TfL know that people have no option but to pay which will bring them in the money. The Superloop is nowhere to be seen apart from some useless renumbering so far, and where are all the other improvements? How are all the local business owners meant to get around with such useless bus networks in outer London? If someone wants to do a job in Havering Park and then needs to get to Rainham are they really going to have to lug it on two bus routes there, with a potential 20 minute total wait in-between. Khan knows Labour will win again, unfortunately he's a PR machine. The amount of popularity he's gaining from attending events all the time and promoting equality is second to none now. The Tories have shot themselves in the foot with this whole mayoral selection scandal now and I can imagine Sadiq is having the best sleeps ever and barely worrying about the election he'll soon have to fight because it'll be a walk in the park for him. The best hope is that this is blocked in the courts, or at least having some strict conditions placed on it prior to its introduction such as a full Superloop network in operation and notable improvements in bus services. The Tory mayoral candidate the last couple of times has been absolutely awful. Frankly irrespective of political inclinations sadiq needs to be booted out owing to his horrifically poor track record i everything apart from giving grandiose PR speeches. One half decent candidate from conservatives / Lib Dem and they would win hands down. Instead we get candidates who are so awful one can’t vote for them Shaun Bailey is laughable, broke Covid rules! Not sure that Corbyn as an independent would win my vote or whether he'd stand a good chance against Khan
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Post by northlondon83 on Jul 2, 2023 21:52:20 GMT
You may well be right, although this was before my time politically. Despite the polls now putting Labour so far ahead, they tend not to gain as many votes as the polls would suggest. While I think they will win at Uxbridge and the LibDems at Frome, I think the Tories could hang on at Selby. Wouldn't be surprised if the Tories sneak back in because the anti tory vote is split in Selby and Ainsty. I think Conservative morale is so low at the moment that many members have virtually accepted defeat in Uxbridge. However the Tories probably could win it if they make it a referendum on ULEZ. A different tier of government I know but I understand the Tory council in Hillingdon is popular locally, with people happy at the quality of services - whilst Ealing's Labour council is utterly abysmal. Uxbridge hasn't had a Labour MP since 1966 but demographic change and unpopularity of the Tory government mean I expect that to change in a few weeks time. I can see the Tories winning Uxbridge actually, as you say they are popular locally. Labour will destroy the council, they'll start off by shutting the police station in Uxbridge, but that will increase crime. Uxbridge is a middle area in terms of crime but Labour will definitely make it like Ealing and Hounslow.
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Post by Eastlondoner62 on Jul 2, 2023 22:02:26 GMT
Wouldn't be surprised if the Tories sneak back in because the anti tory vote is split in Selby and Ainsty. I think Conservative morale is so low at the moment that many members have virtually accepted defeat in Uxbridge. However the Tories probably could win it if they make it a referendum on ULEZ. A different tier of government I know but I understand the Tory council in Hillingdon is popular locally, with people happy at the quality of services - whilst Ealing's Labour council is utterly abysmal. Uxbridge hasn't had a Labour MP since 1966 but demographic change and unpopularity of the Tory government mean I expect that to change in a few weeks time. I can see the Tories winning Uxbridge actually, as you say they are popular locally. Labour will destroy the council, they'll start off by shutting the police station in Uxbridge, but that will increase crime. Uxbridge is a middle area in terms of crime but Labour will definitely make it like Ealing and Hounslow. MPs are a different election to that of the council. Councils are made up of the wards and each ward has a slightly different population but an equal representation. Conservative areas tend to be more sparsely populated which is what gives them the ability to win more wards, even with fewer votes. MP votes are different in that they're popular vote. Somewhere like Uxbridge tends to vote Labour while the South Ruislip area is where the Tory voters are. All that needs to happen is some people in South Ruislip to change their minds from the last election. An initial poll has shown Mid-Bedfordshire being a marginal Labour win now. I think the margin of the Labour win suggested would be undone by a confidence interval and it should be a Tory hold, but if it flips this could be a 1997 scale disaster we are heading for. I think that's now the seat to watch out for and not Uxbridge.
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Post by capitalomnibus on Jul 2, 2023 23:11:57 GMT
Well said, trouble is no one wants to tackle it as it is in effect a greenwash form of transportation. The tube is highly polluted and train unions have complained about this for years. One thing laughable is the pathetic ULEZ expansion advert on TV even showing a parrot with it for cleaner air. It is a bloody joke, after all, so if you go on this basis, the area now covered within the North & South Circular roads should contain the best air in the capital with parrots flying around etc. IT SURELY IS WORST We've already got parrots flying around, not sure what that ad was even aiming at. The ULEZ expansion is good in its concept, get rid of the highest polluting cars. Although the question now becomes what's being done about other means of pollution? Sadiq can wage war on motorists, but where is all the fuss about the smokers who go around spewing cancer fumes to everyone and force themselves into a bus stop just to then force everyone else out? Bus stops are no smoking zones but there's pretty much zero enforcement on any of that. Where is all the fuss about all the industrial areas in London where factories pollute? Heck, where is all the fuss about littering? Not to mention more people here are killed by knife crime than by pollution (although that's also a fault of Central government too). I understand the ULEZ, but I don't understand why it's being introduced as a ridiculous cash grab exercise. TfL know that people have no option but to pay which will bring them in the money. The Superloop is nowhere to be seen apart from some useless renumbering so far, and where are all the other improvements? How are all the local business owners meant to get around with such useless bus networks in outer London? If someone wants to do a job in Havering Park and then needs to get to Rainham are they really going to have to lug it on two bus routes there, with a potential 20 minute total wait in-between. Khan knows Labour will win again, unfortunately he's a PR machine. The amount of popularity he's gaining from attending events all the time and promoting equality is second to none now. The Tories have shot themselves in the foot with this whole mayoral selection scandal now and I can imagine Sadiq is having the best sleeps ever and barely worrying about the election he'll soon have to fight because it'll be a walk in the park for him. The best hope is that this is blocked in the courts, or at least having some strict conditions placed on it prior to its introduction such as a full Superloop network in operation and notable improvements in bus services. There NEVER would be any reasonable enforcement of the things you mentioned as it would be like squeezing blood from a stone. End of the day, motorists are an easy cash cow end of. There is a reason many countries around the world have not applied out style congestion charge, ulez, lez, cpz, ltn. Industrial pollution is far worst than anything else. It is NOT proven that loss of lives to emissions, especially if we have cleaner cars than in 1970s! As you say there are far more people being killed on the streets by murder but it is the one subject Khan has shied away from ever since landing the job.
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Post by capitalomnibus on Jul 2, 2023 23:24:42 GMT
The Tory mayoral candidate the last couple of times has been absolutely awful. Frankly irrespective of political inclinations sadiq needs to be booted out owing to his horrifically poor track record i everything apart from giving grandiose PR speeches. One half decent candidate from conservatives / Lib Dem and they would win hands down. Instead we get candidates who are so awful one can’t vote for them Shaun Bailey is laughable, broke Covid rules! Not sure that Corbyn as an independent would win my vote or whether he'd stand a good chance against Khan Bailey said he was not running anymore long time, so I do not see the point of that. He was written of as a laughing stock, the shock in the end was how he proved critics wrong and did way better than he was predicted to. He was not given hardly much backing or endorsement by the party until it was way too late. Boris and Zac Goldsmith were back far more.
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Post by northlondon83 on Jul 4, 2023 15:18:13 GMT
The constituency boundaries in the Hillingdon borough appear a little strange to me. I feel that the northern half of Uxbridge and South Ruislip should be transferred to Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner, as I feel that those parts of Ruislip have a different identity to Uxbridge and Hillingdon. Hayes (north of the Elizabeth line) and Yeading could perhaps be merged into the current Uxbridge and South Ruislip constituency, as the Hayes and Harlington constituency looks weird with the shape of a big square with a little square in the top right hand corner of the constituency. Alternative the borough of Hillingdon could be split into two constituencies, with the split being at the A40. The southern constituency would overwhelmingly vote Labour though. Pinner could be transferred into the Harrow West constituency
Looking at other constituencies in London could Chingford & Woodford Green turn Labour at the next election? In 2019 the Tories scraped through with a very small majority. The constituency boundaries strikes me for cutting Woodford in half, feel like Woodford is more Labour than Chingford and if Woodford was moved to Ilford North perhaps Chingford constituency would have a bigger majority
Other constituencies in London that could change hands: Kensington (Conservatives to Labour) Wimbledon (Conservatives to Lib Dems) Carshalton and Wallington (Conservatives to Lib Dems) Enfield Southgate (Labour to Conservatives) Enfield North (Labour to Conservatives) Harrow West (Labour to Conservatives) Beckenham (Conservatives to Labour)
Kensington was very much a marginal win for the Tories after the shock win for Labour in 2017. The Tories has lost a lot of ground in Merton in the local elections and I expect that to continue. Beckenham is another seat I feel the Tories could lose, as I feel NW Bromley strikes me as a Labour voting area. I think that the Tories could make gains in Harrow and Enfield though. As for Dagenham and Rainham, the 2nd most marginal seat in London, I think that the Labour party will retain and potentially increase their majority. Places like Chadwell Heath, Becontree Heath and Dagenham voting Tory will never happen. The only thing that might turn to the Tories favour is because a lot of the constituency lies in Havering borough. The Barnet borough constituencies are interesting since in the local election of 2022 they turned Labour however I'm not sure if they'll win any seats in Barnet.
Going back to Uxbridge and South Ruislip I'm expecting the Tories to retain the seat
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Post by rif153 on Jul 4, 2023 17:07:09 GMT
The constituency boundaries in the Hillingdon borough appear a little strange to me. I feel that the northern half of Uxbridge and South Ruislip should be transferred to Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner, as I feel that those parts of Ruislip have a different identity to Uxbridge and Hillingdon. Hayes (north of the Elizabeth line) and Yeading could perhaps be merged into the current Uxbridge and South Ruislip constituency, as the Hayes and Harlington constituency looks weird with the shape of a big square with a little square in the top right hand corner of the constituency. Alternative the borough of Hillingdon could be split into two constituencies, with the split being at the A40. The southern constituency would overwhelmingly vote Labour though. Pinner could be transferred into the Harrow West constituency Looking at other constituencies in London could Chingford & Woodford Green turn Labour at the next election? In 2019 the Tories scraped through with a very small majority. The constituency boundaries strikes me for cutting Woodford in half, feel like Woodford is more Labour than Chingford and if Woodford was moved to Ilford North perhaps Chingford constituency would have a bigger majority Other constituencies in London that could change hands: Kensington (Conservatives to Labour) Wimbledon (Conservatives to Lib Dems) Carshalton and Wallington (Conservatives to Lib Dems) Enfield Southgate (Labour to Conservatives) Enfield North (Labour to Conservatives) Harrow West (Labour to Conservatives) Beckenham (Conservatives to Labour) Kensington was very much a marginal win for the Tories after the shock win for Labour in 2017. The Tories has lost a lot of ground in Merton in the local elections and I expect that to continue. Beckenham is another seat I feel the Tories could lose, as I feel NW Bromley strikes me as a Labour voting area. I think that the Tories could make gains in Harrow and Enfield though. As for Dagenham and Rainham, the 2nd most marginal seat in London, I think that the Labour party will retain and potentially increase their majority. Places like Chadwell Heath, Becontree Heath and Dagenham voting Tory will never happen. The only thing that might turn to the Tories favour is because a lot of the constituency lies in Havering borough. The Barnet borough constituencies are interesting since in the local election of 2022 they turned Labour however I'm not sure if they'll win any seats in Barnet. Going back to Uxbridge and South Ruislip I'm expecting the Tories to retain the seat With the boundary changes the new Penge and Beckenham seat looks like one Labour should win.
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Post by Eastlondoner62 on Jul 4, 2023 20:06:28 GMT
The constituency boundaries in the Hillingdon borough appear a little strange to me. I feel that the northern half of Uxbridge and South Ruislip should be transferred to Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner, as I feel that those parts of Ruislip have a different identity to Uxbridge and Hillingdon. Hayes (north of the Elizabeth line) and Yeading could perhaps be merged into the current Uxbridge and South Ruislip constituency, as the Hayes and Harlington constituency looks weird with the shape of a big square with a little square in the top right hand corner of the constituency. Alternative the borough of Hillingdon could be split into two constituencies, with the split being at the A40. The southern constituency would overwhelmingly vote Labour though. Pinner could be transferred into the Harrow West constituency Looking at other constituencies in London could Chingford & Woodford Green turn Labour at the next election? In 2019 the Tories scraped through with a very small majority. The constituency boundaries strikes me for cutting Woodford in half, feel like Woodford is more Labour than Chingford and if Woodford was moved to Ilford North perhaps Chingford constituency would have a bigger majority Other constituencies in London that could change hands: Kensington (Conservatives to Labour) Wimbledon (Conservatives to Lib Dems) Carshalton and Wallington (Conservatives to Lib Dems) Enfield Southgate (Labour to Conservatives) Enfield North (Labour to Conservatives) Harrow West (Labour to Conservatives) Beckenham (Conservatives to Labour) Kensington was very much a marginal win for the Tories after the shock win for Labour in 2017. The Tories has lost a lot of ground in Merton in the local elections and I expect that to continue. Beckenham is another seat I feel the Tories could lose, as I feel NW Bromley strikes me as a Labour voting area. I think that the Tories could make gains in Harrow and Enfield though. As for Dagenham and Rainham, the 2nd most marginal seat in London, I think that the Labour party will retain and potentially increase their majority. Places like Chadwell Heath, Becontree Heath and Dagenham voting Tory will never happen. The only thing that might turn to the Tories favour is because a lot of the constituency lies in Havering borough. The Barnet borough constituencies are interesting since in the local election of 2022 they turned Labour however I'm not sure if they'll win any seats in Barnet. Going back to Uxbridge and South Ruislip I'm expecting the Tories to retain the seat The Tories like the Uxbridge and South Ruislip seat in general as it gives them a foothold over Uxbridge, which itself is a Labour area by using the Conservative area of South Ruislip to balance it out to get the numbers that they need. A split as you suggest would effectively give Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner a huge dent in the Tory lead and could potentially lead to that being a far easier target for Labour in the coming months. I don't think the Conservatives will be making any sort of gain in London, if any seats change they'll be current Conservative seats going to Labour or the Liberal Democrats. Regarding your point about Havering, the council went from being No Overall Council with Conservatives in charge to a Labour and Residents Group coalition, and with the residents group going into power sharing with Labour there suggests that they do lean left which could give Labour the edge there.
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Post by ThinLizzy on Jul 5, 2023 0:30:23 GMT
The constituency boundaries in the Hillingdon borough appear a little strange to me. I feel that the northern half of Uxbridge and South Ruislip should be transferred to Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner, as I feel that those parts of Ruislip have a different identity to Uxbridge and Hillingdon. Hayes (north of the Elizabeth line) and Yeading could perhaps be merged into the current Uxbridge and South Ruislip constituency, as the Hayes and Harlington constituency looks weird with the shape of a big square with a little square in the top right hand corner of the constituency. Alternative the borough of Hillingdon could be split into two constituencies, with the split being at the A40. The southern constituency would overwhelmingly vote Labour though. Pinner could be transferred into the Harrow West constituency Looking at other constituencies in London could Chingford & Woodford Green turn Labour at the next election? In 2019 the Tories scraped through with a very small majority. The constituency boundaries strikes me for cutting Woodford in half, feel like Woodford is more Labour than Chingford and if Woodford was moved to Ilford North perhaps Chingford constituency would have a bigger majority Other constituencies in London that could change hands: Kensington (Conservatives to Labour) Wimbledon (Conservatives to Lib Dems) Carshalton and Wallington (Conservatives to Lib Dems) Enfield Southgate (Labour to Conservatives) Enfield North (Labour to Conservatives) Harrow West (Labour to Conservatives) Beckenham (Conservatives to Labour) Kensington was very much a marginal win for the Tories after the shock win for Labour in 2017. The Tories has lost a lot of ground in Merton in the local elections and I expect that to continue. Beckenham is another seat I feel the Tories could lose, as I feel NW Bromley strikes me as a Labour voting area. I think that the Tories could make gains in Harrow and Enfield though. As for Dagenham and Rainham, the 2nd most marginal seat in London, I think that the Labour party will retain and potentially increase their majority. Places like Chadwell Heath, Becontree Heath and Dagenham voting Tory will never happen. The only thing that might turn to the Tories favour is because a lot of the constituency lies in Havering borough. The Barnet borough constituencies are interesting since in the local election of 2022 they turned Labour however I'm not sure if they'll win any seats in Barnet. Going back to Uxbridge and South Ruislip I'm expecting the Tories to retain the seat The Tories like the Uxbridge and South Ruislip seat in general as it gives them a foothold over Uxbridge, which itself is a Labour area by using the Conservative area of South Ruislip to balance it out to get the numbers that they need. A split as you suggest would effectively give Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner a huge dent in the Tory lead and could potentially lead to that being a far easier target for Labour in the coming months. I don't think the Conservatives will be making any sort of gain in London, if any seats change they'll be current Conservative seats going to Labour or the Liberal Democrats. Regarding your point about Havering, the council went from being No Overall Council with Conservatives in charge to a Labour and Residents Group coalition, and with the residents group going into power sharing with Labour there suggests that they do lean left which could give Labour the edge there. not too sure about the Romford constituency, the current MP has a pretty hefty majority but hasn't been seen in Parliament for a long time for reasons that are unknown but "speculated/rumoured" a lot about on Twitter
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Post by TB123 on Jul 5, 2023 7:09:56 GMT
The Tories like the Uxbridge and South Ruislip seat in general as it gives them a foothold over Uxbridge, which itself is a Labour area by using the Conservative area of South Ruislip to balance it out to get the numbers that they need. A split as you suggest would effectively give Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner a huge dent in the Tory lead and could potentially lead to that being a far easier target for Labour in the coming months. I don't think the Conservatives will be making any sort of gain in London, if any seats change they'll be current Conservative seats going to Labour or the Liberal Democrats. Regarding your point about Havering, the council went from being No Overall Council with Conservatives in charge to a Labour and Residents Group coalition, and with the residents group going into power sharing with Labour there suggests that they do lean left which could give Labour the edge there. not too sure about the Romford constituency, the current MP has a pretty hefty majority but hasn't been seen in Parliament for a long time for reasons that are unknown but "speculated/rumoured" a lot about on Twitter Rumours indeed.... He has however been reselected for the next election as the Tory candidate. Labour has only won Romford a couple of times since WW2, not even winning it in the second landslide of 2001 when it swung blue again. To get a feel for the prospects you really have to drill into the data and knock on some doors. Labour is doing very well amongst mortgage-holders and Brexit-supporters (though remain support is holding up) recently - Romford has less mortgaged voters than neighbouring Essex seats or Hornchurch, but is a very strong leave seat. But to swing it red needs a huge effort and a massive swing. Time will tell....
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Post by TB123 on Jul 5, 2023 7:17:09 GMT
The constituency boundaries in the Hillingdon borough appear a little strange to me. I feel that the northern half of Uxbridge and South Ruislip should be transferred to Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner, as I feel that those parts of Ruislip have a different identity to Uxbridge and Hillingdon. Hayes (north of the Elizabeth line) and Yeading could perhaps be merged into the current Uxbridge and South Ruislip constituency, as the Hayes and Harlington constituency looks weird with the shape of a big square with a little square in the top right hand corner of the constituency. Alternative the borough of Hillingdon could be split into two constituencies, with the split being at the A40. The southern constituency would overwhelmingly vote Labour though. Pinner could be transferred into the Harrow West constituency Looking at other constituencies in London could Chingford & Woodford Green turn Labour at the next election? In 2019 the Tories scraped through with a very small majority. The constituency boundaries strikes me for cutting Woodford in half, feel like Woodford is more Labour than Chingford and if Woodford was moved to Ilford North perhaps Chingford constituency would have a bigger majority Other constituencies in London that could change hands: Kensington (Conservatives to Labour) Wimbledon (Conservatives to Lib Dems) Carshalton and Wallington (Conservatives to Lib Dems) Enfield Southgate (Labour to Conservatives) Enfield North (Labour to Conservatives) Harrow West (Labour to Conservatives) Beckenham (Conservatives to Labour) Kensington was very much a marginal win for the Tories after the shock win for Labour in 2017. The Tories has lost a lot of ground in Merton in the local elections and I expect that to continue. Beckenham is another seat I feel the Tories could lose, as I feel NW Bromley strikes me as a Labour voting area. I think that the Tories could make gains in Harrow and Enfield though. As for Dagenham and Rainham, the 2nd most marginal seat in London, I think that the Labour party will retain and potentially increase their majority. Places like Chadwell Heath, Becontree Heath and Dagenham voting Tory will never happen. The only thing that might turn to the Tories favour is because a lot of the constituency lies in Havering borough. The Barnet borough constituencies are interesting since in the local election of 2022 they turned Labour however I'm not sure if they'll win any seats in Barnet. Going back to Uxbridge and South Ruislip I'm expecting the Tories to retain the seat With the boundary changes the new Penge and Beckenham seat looks like one Labour should win. Lots of campaigning activity underway there already and a candidate should be selected too soon. It's being taken very seriously and I've heard the responses knocking doors are positive for Labour, mortgage rate hikes a big issue there as you'd imagine with lots of younger families and higher than average house prices.
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Post by ThinLizzy on Jul 5, 2023 8:16:58 GMT
not too sure about the Romford constituency, the current MP has a pretty hefty majority but hasn't been seen in Parliament for a long time for reasons that are unknown but "speculated/rumoured" a lot about on Twitter Rumours indeed.... He has however been reselected for the next election as the Tory candidate. Labour has only won Romford a couple of times since WW2, not even winning it in the second landslide of 2001 when it swung blue again. To get a feel for the prospects you really have to drill into the data and knock on some doors. Labour is doing very well amongst mortgage-holders and Brexit-supporters (though remain support is holding up) recently - Romford has less mortgaged voters than neighbouring Essex seats or Hornchurch, but is a very strong leave seat. But to swing it red needs a huge effort and a massive swing. Time will tell.... I don't think Romford will go to Labour, there's far too many "Bring Back Bozo" fans in the area, however, it would be great if Labour were able to put a serious dent in the Tory majority here
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Post by Eastlondoner62 on Jul 5, 2023 8:20:25 GMT
The Tories like the Uxbridge and South Ruislip seat in general as it gives them a foothold over Uxbridge, which itself is a Labour area by using the Conservative area of South Ruislip to balance it out to get the numbers that they need. A split as you suggest would effectively give Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner a huge dent in the Tory lead and could potentially lead to that being a far easier target for Labour in the coming months. I don't think the Conservatives will be making any sort of gain in London, if any seats change they'll be current Conservative seats going to Labour or the Liberal Democrats. Regarding your point about Havering, the council went from being No Overall Council with Conservatives in charge to a Labour and Residents Group coalition, and with the residents group going into power sharing with Labour there suggests that they do lean left which could give Labour the edge there. not too sure about the Romford constituency, the current MP has a pretty hefty majority but hasn't been seen in Parliament for a long time for reasons that are unknown but "speculated/rumoured" a lot about on Twitter Andrew Rosindell is a character to say the least, he makes a lot of noise but has no action, seems to love his bulldog more than his job to a point he references a bulldog in almost any statement he makes. I do hope Romford could swing, I think it's chances are increasing with the increasing number of people moving further out of London.
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Post by northlondon83 on Jul 5, 2023 14:04:44 GMT
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Post by greenboy on Jul 5, 2023 14:19:33 GMT
I think most people are bored to tears with this partygate nonsense and see it as a waste of police time.
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