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Post by SILENCED on Jan 7, 2024 12:36:42 GMT
The media are now talking up November 14th rather than October 24th as the Autumn election date if it happens then rather than May. Admittedly, November would not "interfere" with my likely Warrington bus trip on Saturday October 26th. It would also mean the Friday of the election coverage would be my birthday, as well as the election itself being on King Charles' birthday! Security officials (MI5 I believe) have warned in the past few months of the UK having its election so soon with the US in the first week of November. I'm willing to stake claim that it'll be late October just after half term or in early December. There won't ever be an election held that willingly jeopardises national security. Props to you though for wanting to gift yourself the right to vote on your birthday. Reckon I can find 100 people who'll say they couldn't think of a worse present!!  National Security ... think that has already been jeopardized by successive governments over the past 30+ years |
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Post by MetrolineGA1511 on Jan 7, 2024 20:42:55 GMT
The media are now talking up November 14th rather than October 24th as the Autumn election date if it happens then rather than May. Admittedly, November would not "interfere" with my likely Warrington bus trip on Saturday October 26th. It would also mean the Friday of the election coverage would be my birthday, as well as the election itself being on King Charles' birthday! Security officials (MI5 I believe) have warned in the past few months of the UK having its election so soon with the US in the first week of November. I'm willing to stake claim that it'll be late October just after half term or in early December. There won't ever be an election held that willingly jeopardises national security. Props to you though for wanting to gift yourself the right to vote on your birthday. Reckon I can find 100 people who'll say they couldn't think of a worse present!! Admittedly it would mean the election coverage being on my birthday, being the Friday. I did have a vote on my birthday in 2012 for the Police & Crime Commissioner. As I spoilt my ballot paper for the first time, it proved that I was not too old to become rebellious in a new way.  I stated that I disagreed with such a vote, and that there should have been a referendum first as to whether we even wanted these. |
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Post by MetrolineGA1511 on Mar 16, 2024 8:10:21 GMT
So, Lee Anderson has defected to Reform.
There were rumours that if as many as 10 MPs followed, Rishi would have confirmed the General Election for May 2nd. In the event he ruled that out on Thursday.
He might worry if many knives emerge following stark defeats in the local elections. I think he would prefer to lose the premiership through electoral defeat rather than being overthrown by MPs. He could therefore implement his working assumption of the General Election in the 2nd half of the year by calling it for July 4th or soon after.
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Post by southlondon413 on Mar 16, 2024 13:12:42 GMT
So, Lee Anderson has defected to Reform. There were rumours that if as many as 10 MPs followed, Rishi would have confirmed the General Election for May 2nd. In the event he ruled that out on Thursday. He might worry if many knives emerge following stark defeats in the local elections. I think he would prefer to lose the premiership through electoral defeat rather than being overthrown by MPs. He could therefore implement his working assumption of the General Election in the 2nd half of the year by calling it for July 4th or soon after. I think we will see another December election allowing for damage limitation with a likely low turnout. |
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Post by Eastlondoner62 on Mar 16, 2024 13:19:31 GMT
So, Lee Anderson has defected to Reform. There were rumours that if as many as 10 MPs followed, Rishi would have confirmed the General Election for May 2nd. In the event he ruled that out on Thursday. He might worry if many knives emerge following stark defeats in the local elections. I think he would prefer to lose the premiership through electoral defeat rather than being overthrown by MPs. He could therefore implement his working assumption of the General Election in the 2nd half of the year by calling it for July 4th or soon after. I think we will see another December election allowing for damage limitation with a likely low turnout. I would have thought that to capitalise on any low turnout that they would want to get it done sooner rather than later. The longer it's left the more scandal that is likely to come out and could in turn drive people towards the polls to get this government out. I think the local elections will be a huge decider. If it's disastrous for the Tories the party members will have a decision to make as to whether to call a General election soon or whether to wait it out. If there is improvement to what was expected they may try to hold out a bit to see if any improvement continues, but if it's completely damaging it will be better to get the GE out of the way early so that the party can start the process of electing a new leader. |
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Post by SILENCED on Mar 16, 2024 13:31:41 GMT
I think we will see another December election allowing for damage limitation with a likely low turnout. I would have thought that to capitalise on any low turnout that they would want to get it done sooner rather than later. The longer it's left the more scandal that is likely to come out and could in turn drive people towards the polls to get this government out. I think the local elections will be a huge decider. If it's disastrous for the Tories the party members will have a decision to make as to whether to call a General election soon or whether to wait it out. If there is improvement to what was expected they may try to hold out a bit to see if any improvement continues, but if it's completely damaging it will be better to get the GE out of the way early so that the party can start the process of electing a new leader. People will want to hold onto their jobs and accompanying salaries for as long as possible. Would you want to give up a well paid position sooner than you had to? |
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Post by Eastlondoner62 on Mar 16, 2024 13:37:07 GMT
I would have thought that to capitalise on any low turnout that they would want to get it done sooner rather than later. The longer it's left the more scandal that is likely to come out and could in turn drive people towards the polls to get this government out. I think the local elections will be a huge decider. If it's disastrous for the Tories the party members will have a decision to make as to whether to call a General election soon or whether to wait it out. If there is improvement to what was expected they may try to hold out a bit to see if any improvement continues, but if it's completely damaging it will be better to get the GE out of the way early so that the party can start the process of electing a new leader. People will want to hold onto their jobs and accompanying salaries for as long as possible. Would you want to give up a well paid position sooner than you had to? You're right, people will want to hold onto their jobs but they'll also want to ensure they can return to the higher paying positions in the future. If you completely wipe yourself out you may never see government again during your career to give you a shot at the cabinet roles, but if you damage control you potentially could be in government again. |
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Post by southlondon413 on Mar 16, 2024 13:56:46 GMT
People will want to hold onto their jobs and accompanying salaries for as long as possible. Would you want to give up a well paid position sooner than you had to? You're right, people will want to hold onto their jobs but they'll also want to ensure they can return to the higher paying positions in the future. If you completely wipe yourself out you may never see government again during your career to give you a shot at the cabinet roles, but if you damage control you potentially could be in government again. That’s why so many high profile types on all sides have been confirming to not be standing again. They are just getting out, on all sides, before they are voted out. The sad fact is this election is wrongly going to be a Sunak vs Starmer battle when we should be looking beyond those equally dislikable people and beyond party politics. Even if labour win nothing will change as they are still the same corrupt politicians. Our system needs an overhaul and a German style makeover. |
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Post by MKAY315 on Mar 16, 2024 14:17:49 GMT
You're right, people will want to hold onto their jobs but they'll also want to ensure they can return to the higher paying positions in the future. If you completely wipe yourself out you may never see government again during your career to give you a shot at the cabinet roles, but if you damage control you potentially could be in government again. That’s why so many high profile types on all sides have been confirming to not be standing again. They are just getting out, on all sides, before they are voted out. The sad fact is this election is wrongly going to be a Sunak vs Starmer battle when we should be looking beyond those equally dislikable people and beyond party politics. Even if labour win nothing will change as they are still the same corrupt politicians. Our system needs an overhaul and a German style makeover. Question is who would be a good candidate to give them a proper challenge? Or what party in that instance? |
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Post by ServerKing on Mar 23, 2024 18:50:31 GMT
That’s why so many high profile types on all sides have been confirming to not be standing again. They are just getting out, on all sides, before they are voted out. The sad fact is this election is wrongly going to be a Sunak vs Starmer battle when we should be looking beyond those equally dislikable people and beyond party politics. Even if labour win nothing will change as they are still the same corrupt politicians. Our system needs an overhaul and a German style makeover. Question is who would be a good candidate to give them a proper challenge? Or what party in that instance? I think it's Starmer's nasal voice, like a hayfever sufferer who's run out of Pirinase that will irritate the most... but it's just a driver change on the 243 at the end of the day. Rishi's Spreadover shift looks to run until November, so no changes just yet   |
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Post by Eastlondoner62 on Mar 31, 2024 14:19:36 GMT
www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/tories-conservatives-election-reform-uk-jeremy-hunt-rishi-sunak-labour-b1148627.htmlThings are not looking up for the party at all now. Polls themselves have a degree of unreliability but even if you add an error margin onto this one I'd be very worried if I were a Tory. Penny Mordaunt who's widely tipped to be a future leader, and one that would have stood a good chance at relative success might end up losing her seat. Even Rishi's safe seat is showing as only 2% ahead of Labour. I don't think whatever defeat will put the Tories below 100 seats but it makes for some dire reading for any Tory supporters and for some funny and interesting reading for most other people.
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Post by wirewiper on May 4, 2024 9:04:01 GMT
As at 10.00 on Saturday, with 102 of 107 councils declared, there are now more Lib Dem councillors in England than there are Conservatives. Labour - 1,026 +173 LibDem - 505 +101 Conservative - 479 -448 Independents - 224 +92 Green - 159 +65 Ratepayers Alliance - 48 +11 One bright spot for the Conservatives is Ben Houchen retaining the Mayoralty of Tees Valley. Although he seems to have mislaid his rosette .... Source: www.bbc.co.uk/news |
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Post by MetrolineGA1511 on May 4, 2024 9:44:54 GMT
As at 10.00 on Saturday, with 102 of 107 councils declared, there are now more Lib Dem councillors in England than there are Conservatives. Labour - 1,026 +173 LibDem - 505 +101 Conservative - 479 -448 Independents - 224 +92 Green - 159 +65 Ratepayers Alliance - 48 +11 One bright spot for the Conservatives is Ben Houchen retaining the Mayoralty of Tees Valley. Although he seems to have mislaid his rosette .... Source: www.bbc.co.uk/news Although the LibDems look set to have more Councillors from the Class of '24 than the Tories, I wonder whether this is true across the country, allowing for all elections from 2021-24? (Councillors who had been due to be elected in 2021 all along, without elections postponed due to Covid, will mostly still be in office for another year). |
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Post by Eastlondoner62 on May 4, 2024 21:48:20 GMT
After a victory yesterday in the Tees Valley, today seems to have been a total humiliation for the Conservative Party. With Sunak even reportedly on his way to the West Midlands just for it to be declared a Labour gain.
It will be interesting to see what the mood is like in the Conservative Party after this and for how long Sunak can continue to go on claiming he has any sort of mandate.
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Post by southlondonbus on May 4, 2024 22:00:26 GMT
After a victory yesterday in the Tees Valley, today seems to have been a total humiliation for the Conservative Party. With Sunak even reportedly on his way to the West Midlands just for it to be declared a Labour gain. It will be interesting to see what the mood is like in the Conservative Party after this and for how long Sunak can continue to go on claiming he has any sort of mandate. These elections though have been quite big, arguably almost like a General with the amount of press interest and I think you risk voter fatigue if another was held again soon. I would still say September would be a better time. |
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