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Post by southlondon413 on May 4, 2024 22:14:58 GMT
After a victory yesterday in the Tees Valley, today seems to have been a total humiliation for the Conservative Party. With Sunak even reportedly on his way to the West Midlands just for it to be declared a Labour gain. It will be interesting to see what the mood is like in the Conservative Party after this and for how long Sunak can continue to go on claiming he has any sort of mandate. These elections though have been quite big, arguably almost like a General with the amount of press interest and I think you risk voter fatigue if another was held again soon. I would still say September would be a better time. The problem is the summer recess would be severely disrupted as the house doesn’t normally sit between July and September unless there is an emergency recall. I reckon November/December is more likely as it slows the house to come back, sit for a few weeks to clear up any business remaining from before summer and then disband. |
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Post by southlondonbus on May 4, 2024 22:20:44 GMT
These elections though have been quite big, arguably almost like a General with the amount of press interest and I think you risk voter fatigue if another was held again soon. I would still say September would be a better time. The problem is the summer recess would be severely disrupted as the house doesn’t normally sit between July and September unless there is an emergency recall. I reckon November/December is more likely as it slows the house to come back, sit for a few weeks to clear up any business remaining from before summer and then disband. Yes true I'd forgotten about the recess. At the very least I don't think it would be good to hold it in 6 weeks time so November is probably the soonest. December can be a tricky time again with getting interest from the public. |
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Post by southlondon413 on May 4, 2024 22:24:49 GMT
The problem is the summer recess would be severely disrupted as the house doesn’t normally sit between July and September unless there is an emergency recall. I reckon November/December is more likely as it slows the house to come back, sit for a few weeks to clear up any business remaining from before summer and then disband. Yes true I'd forgotten about the recess. At the very least I don't think it would be good to hold it in 6 weeks time so November is probably the soonest. December can be a tricky time again with getting interest from the public. A December election with an even more disinterested public may work in the Tories favour for damage limitation. It would also allow a fresh January 2025 start for the house. |
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Post by ibus246 on May 4, 2024 22:46:06 GMT
After a victory yesterday in the Tees Valley, today seems to have been a total humiliation for the Conservative Party. With Sunak even reportedly on his way to the West Midlands just for it to be declared a Labour gain. It will be interesting to see what the mood is like in the Conservative Party after this and for how long Sunak can continue to go on claiming he has any sort of mandate. These elections though have been quite big, arguably almost like a General with the amount of press interest and I think you risk voter fatigue if another was held again soon. I would still say September would be a better time. I don’t think there would be any shortage - not even a minute - chance of voter fatigue at getting this Tory government out of power. The sooner the general election comes the better. |
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Post by ServerKing on May 5, 2024 7:46:26 GMT
After a victory yesterday in the Tees Valley, today seems to have been a total humiliation for the Conservative Party. With Sunak even reportedly on his way to the West Midlands just for it to be declared a Labour gain. It will be interesting to see what the mood is like in the Conservative Party after this and for how long Sunak can continue to go on claiming he has any sort of mandate. These elections though have been quite big, arguably almost like a General with the amount of press interest and I think you risk voter fatigue if another was held again soon. I would still say September would be a better time. ToryUK hope to retain the route once Tenders are announced in October   Driver training already underway  |
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Post by MetrolineGA1511 on May 6, 2024 3:41:49 GMT
After a victory yesterday in the Tees Valley, today seems to have been a total humiliation for the Conservative Party. With Sunak even reportedly on his way to the West Midlands just for it to be declared a Labour gain. It will be interesting to see what the mood is like in the Conservative Party after this and for how long Sunak can continue to go on claiming he has any sort of mandate. These elections though have been quite big, arguably almost like a General with the amount of press interest and I think you risk voter fatigue if another was held again soon. I would still say September would be a better time. September would provide breathing space after last week's elections. However, I doubt a General Election would be called in August while many MPs, not least the Prime Minister, and many activists are on holiday. |
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Post by Eastlondoner62 on May 6, 2024 18:05:55 GMT
Rishi Sunak today admitted that the Conservatives are on track for a defeat in the next election, however claimed there would be a hung Parliament instead of a Labour majority. The Liberal Democrats also seem to be posed to table a motion of no confidence in Rishi Sunak this week www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/lib-dem-rishi-sunak-general-election-2024-b2540284.htmlIt should be a straightforward win by the Tories, but it will probably give the parties ammunition no matter which way the result sways as even if the Tories win it suggests that the party is too scared to fight an election. It will take 20 Tory MPs to vote against their own party to force a General Election but despite a rapidly reducing majority they should easily see it through. |
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Post by southlondon413 on May 6, 2024 19:14:48 GMT
Rishi Sunak today admitted that the Conservatives are on track for a defeat in the next election, however claimed there would be a hung Parliament instead of a Labour majority. The Liberal Democrats also seem to be posed to table a motion of no confidence in Rishi Sunak this week www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/lib-dem-rishi-sunak-general-election-2024-b2540284.htmlIt should be a straightforward win by the Tories, but it will probably give the parties ammunition no matter which way the result sways as even if the Tories win it suggests that the party is too scared to fight an election. It will take 20 Tory MPs to vote against their own party to force a General Election but despite a rapidly reducing majority they should easily see it through. I agree with your assessment. I think Tory MPs would rather take Sunak out themselves than be forced to side with the Lib Dems. If they were to agree it means Sunak would likely lead them into a general election sooner rather than later. But wait a little bit longer and there is still an opportunity to get someone like Penny Mordaunt or Kemi Badenoch into play for a general in October/November. Both may play a little better with traditional Tory voters, Morduant because of her strong military ethos coupled with a hardline attitude and Badenoch with her more right wing policies on immigration and transgender issues. It won’t be enough to save the Tory vote but it may help force a minority government with Labour. |
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Post by Eastlondoner62 on May 6, 2024 20:06:01 GMT
Rishi Sunak today admitted that the Conservatives are on track for a defeat in the next election, however claimed there would be a hung Parliament instead of a Labour majority. The Liberal Democrats also seem to be posed to table a motion of no confidence in Rishi Sunak this week www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/lib-dem-rishi-sunak-general-election-2024-b2540284.htmlIt should be a straightforward win by the Tories, but it will probably give the parties ammunition no matter which way the result sways as even if the Tories win it suggests that the party is too scared to fight an election. It will take 20 Tory MPs to vote against their own party to force a General Election but despite a rapidly reducing majority they should easily see it through. I agree with your assessment. I think Tory MPs would rather take Sunak out themselves than be forced to side with the Lib Dems. If they were to agree it means Sunak would likely lead them into a general election sooner rather than later. But wait a little bit longer and there is still an opportunity to get someone like Penny Mordaunt or Kemi Badenoch into play for a general in October/November. Both may play a little better with traditional Tory voters, Morduant because of her strong military ethos coupled with a hardline attitude and Badenoch with her more right wing policies on immigration and transgender issues. It won’t be enough to save the Tory vote but it may help force a minority government with Labour. From what I've been seeing online I think both Badenoch and Mordaunt know that there will be a leadership vacancy in the short term now. I think Badenoch will be the first to throw herself into the ring and I think she will win. Although this would probably mirror exactly what happened to the Labour Party post 2015 where Corbyn came in and effectively split the party into two and caused utter chaos from the start of his reign right until the end of it. Badenoch will just do it with the far right of the party instead, causing a split between the far right and the one-nation group. Depending on what Labour then do in government I think Badenoch won't last past the election or we'll get a hung with Labour in coalition the next time around, during which Mordaunt will probably rise up and become the leader who takes the Tories back into government. The Tories also have a new problem on their hands that they need to probably address, which is a changing in where the country naturally lies on the political spectrum. I think the country on average currently lies on the soft right which is why the Tories hold power often and whenever Labour hold power it's when they're centrist, and it's why when either of the two main parties drift too far to one end the other party then takes power. But I think the country is slowly moving towards the left on average, but has a group also moving even further right which is why Reform are picking up enough votes to damage the Tories, but also why Labour and LibDems are seeing increased voter share. I think if the Tories want to be in power in the future following the next GE they need to have a leader who is to the left of where there Tories lie on the spectrum as opposed to the right. |
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Post by LT 20181 on May 8, 2024 17:33:13 GMT
Another blow to Sunak as Natalie Elphicke is the latest Conservative MP to defect to Labour.
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Post by southlondon413 on May 8, 2024 18:46:01 GMT
Another blow to Sunak as Natalie Elphicke is the latest Conservative MP to defect to Labour. It’s equally shocking that Starmer would want someone so far-right amongst Labours ranks. This may come back to hurt him in the short term. |
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Post by Eastlondoner62 on May 8, 2024 21:13:57 GMT
Another blow to Sunak as Natalie Elphicke is the latest Conservative MP to defect to Labour. It’s equally shocking that Starmer would want someone so far-right amongst Labours ranks. This may come back to hurt him in the short term. I'm a bit surprised too, but I imagine the rationale is that she won't last long regardless as she's stepping down at the GE. I think this was very calculated by her, I don't think that she's become Left wing overnight or even Centrist and that this move was simply to hurt Sunak when he is at his most vulnerable. She probably isn't very happy with the borders as the plan isn't working and so has defected at a time and to a place that'll cause the most damage. The fact she did it during PMQs itself shows that. Rumours are another MP will defect soon, I wonder who it is? |
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Post by southlondon413 on May 8, 2024 21:19:59 GMT
It’s equally shocking that Starmer would want someone so far-right amongst Labours ranks. This may come back to hurt him in the short term. I'm a bit surprised too, but I imagine the rationale is that she won't last long regardless as she's stepping down at the GE. I think this was very calculated by her, I don't think that she's become Left wing overnight or even Centrist and that this move was simply to hurt Sunak when he is at his most vulnerable. She probably isn't very happy with the borders as the plan isn't working and so has defected at a time and to a place that'll cause the most damage. The fact she did it during PMQs itself shows that. Rumours are another MP will defect soon, I wonder who it is? Even if she has now been confirmed to be stepping her poor record speaks for itself. The situation with her husband is enough to confirm her character. She’s a complete charlatan and if Labour had any integrity as a party they’d get her to step down and force a by-election. |
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Post by buspete on May 9, 2024 0:54:46 GMT
If a MP crosses the floor is on the right side of a right wing party, then that will set a precedent for moderate Conservatives to cross the floor. More will follow and depending on the number may force a snap general election.
The only path for Rishi to win votes is to have flight to Rwanda just before the general election, this might not happen if a snap election is forced. Where for Labour there are several paths for victory the main being that Labour and Liberals target seats being Tory and not each other, tactical voting between Labour and Liberal, Reform party taking right wing Tory votes, Labour/Liberal taking moderate Tory voters and the SNP being in disarray.
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Post by vjaska on May 9, 2024 11:32:34 GMT
If a MP crosses the floor is on the right side of a right wing party, then that will set a precedent for moderate Conservatives to cross the floor. More will follow and depending on the number may force a snap general election. The only path for Rishi to win votes is to have flight to Rwanda just before the general election, this might not happen if a snap election is forced. Where for Labour there are several paths for victory the main being that Labour and Liberals target seats being Tory and not each other, tactical voting between Labour and Liberal, Reform party taking right wing Tory votes, Labour/Liberal taking moderate Tory voters and the SNP being in disarray. I don’t think even Rwanda flights taking off can realistically gain him enough votes in all honesty - he is essentially hoping for a number of snookers which thus far, don’t look like happening. Even the Dover MP who defected to Labour wasn’t impressed by the Rwanda policy despite sitting on the right and prefers having a co-operative policy with France instead so if the policy isn’t impressing the MP for who’s area is where the boats land, I don’t think he can impress anyone else especially when you start delving into the cost of the policy |
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