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Post by southlondon413 on Jul 9, 2022 8:53:47 GMT
Kemi Badenoch has joined the race this morning. If it gets to membership voting she might get mine. I like her and she does seem to have a refreshing take on modern conservatism.
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Post by Eastlondoner62 on Jul 9, 2022 9:43:02 GMT
Kemi Badenoch has joined the race this morning. If it gets to membership voting she might get mine. I like her and she does seem to have a refreshing take on modern conservatism. Issue being the refreshing take on modern conservatism still seems to be a huge mess. I think whoever wins this very quickly becomes the Gordon Brown of the Tories. Fighting an uphill battle with an ever increasingly powerful Labour Party on their tail. It's quite clear that red wall will be coming back by this point and I wouldn't be surprised to see a lot more in the South turn red too, especially those around London. Even Havering now having a council on the left when it's a traditionally Tory area. I believe a poll the other day put Sunak as the only PM that could have any chance of beating the Labour Party in polls, and that's only with a very razor thin 1% lead. |
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Post by southlondon413 on Jul 9, 2022 10:17:24 GMT
Kemi Badenoch has joined the race this morning. If it gets to membership voting she might get mine. I like her and she does seem to have a refreshing take on modern conservatism. Issue being the refreshing take on modern conservatism still seems to be a huge mess. I think whoever wins this very quickly becomes the Gordon Brown of the Tories. Fighting an uphill battle with an ever increasingly powerful Labour Party on their tail. It's quite clear that red wall will be coming back by this point and I wouldn't be surprised to see a lot more in the South turn red too, especially those around London. Even Havering now having a council on the left when it's a traditionally Tory area. I believe a poll the other day put Sunak as the only PM that could have any chance of beating the Labour Party in polls, and that's only with a very razor thin 1% lead. Politics changes like seasons. It was only a 18 months ago that Labour were in full blown collapse mode and we are still far enough away from the next generation election, no later than Jan 2025, that a new leader could come in and still have enough time to turn things around. Boris resigning, by all accounts, has had a very mixed reaction across the country. Those who only voted for him will need to be convinced they can continue to vote Tory and I think someone like Ms Badenoch, who has a small connection to BJs government could be seen as that fresh approach. The problem as with the Labour Party right now is that it is trying to hard to appeal to everyone on every side and whilst that may look good in a speech or on paper it is no secret that government simply cannot appeal to every subset of society, let alone appease them all. Currently the Labour Party stands for everything and nothing simultaneously. Your point about Havering is completely nonsensical as it has been NOC since 2014 and previously NOC between 1986 and 2006. Yes between that it was Tory but Labour was strong until the late 90s when the independents took larger control. |
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Post by Eastlondoner62 on Jul 9, 2022 10:22:54 GMT
Issue being the refreshing take on modern conservatism still seems to be a huge mess. I think whoever wins this very quickly becomes the Gordon Brown of the Tories. Fighting an uphill battle with an ever increasingly powerful Labour Party on their tail. It's quite clear that red wall will be coming back by this point and I wouldn't be surprised to see a lot more in the South turn red too, especially those around London. Even Havering now having a council on the left when it's a traditionally Tory area. I believe a poll the other day put Sunak as the only PM that could have any chance of beating the Labour Party in polls, and that's only with a very razor thin 1% lead. Politics changes like seasons. It was only a 18 months ago that Labour were in full blown collapse mode and we are still far enough away from the next generation election, no later than Jan 2025, that a new leader could come in and still have enough time to turn things around. Boris resigning, by all accounts, has had a very mixed reaction across the country. Those who only voted for him will need to be convinced they can continue to vote Tory and I think someone like Ms Badenoch, who has a small connection to BJs government could be seen as that fresh approach. The problem as with the Labour Party right now is that it is trying to hard to appeal to everyone on every side and whilst that may look good in a speech or on paper it is no secret that government simply cannot appeal to every subset of society, let alone appease them all. Currently the Labour Party stands for everything and nothing simultaneously. Your point about Havering is completely nonsensical as it has been NOC since 2014 and previously NOC between 1986 and 2006. Yes between that it was Tory but Labour was strong until the late 90s when the independents took larger control. Yes it's bee NOC, however Conservatives is who were leading the council propped up by a right wing residents group which allowed them to get everything through. It was very similar to the DUP agreement, Tory government despite not majority. |
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Post by ServerKing on Jul 9, 2022 10:24:11 GMT
Kemi Badenoch has joined the race this morning. If it gets to membership voting she might get mine. I like her and she does seem to have a refreshing take on modern conservatism. Issue being the refreshing take on modern conservatism still seems to be a huge mess. I think whoever wins this very quickly becomes the Gordon Brown of the Tories. Fighting an uphill battle with an ever increasingly powerful Labour Party on their tail. It's quite clear that red wall will be coming back by this point and I wouldn't be surprised to see a lot more in the South turn red too, especially those around London. Even Havering now having a council on the left when it's a traditionally Tory area. I believe a poll the other day put Sunak as the only PM that could have any chance of beating the Labour Party in polls, and that's only with a very razor thin 1% lead. Even before everything imploded last week, people have seen the botched immigration policy of dumping people in Rwanda, which has increased the dangerous journeys across the Channel, and not deterred people as everyone sees they don't keep their word or carry out promises. Brexit has become a journey on an unfamiliar bus route, iBus is broken and we've been showing "*" since 2020. We are paying for "social care", despite the fact most of this sector is farmed out to the private sector with different care agencies and hospices... the NHS is a money pit, yet somehow they rustled up £££s for Furlough, an Eat Out scheme, then bought the wrong PPE, which they then burnt. Cost of living is too high, the government take almost half of fuel costs in duty, no wonder they don't want to cut prices down. More have wised up to this and work from home, really hurting them as we are not on overpriced buses and trains into work anymore. I trust the Met Police more than these lot  |
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Post by vjaska on Jul 9, 2022 10:48:54 GMT
Issue being the refreshing take on modern conservatism still seems to be a huge mess. I think whoever wins this very quickly becomes the Gordon Brown of the Tories. Fighting an uphill battle with an ever increasingly powerful Labour Party on their tail. It's quite clear that red wall will be coming back by this point and I wouldn't be surprised to see a lot more in the South turn red too, especially those around London. Even Havering now having a council on the left when it's a traditionally Tory area. I believe a poll the other day put Sunak as the only PM that could have any chance of beating the Labour Party in polls, and that's only with a very razor thin 1% lead. Politics changes like seasons. It was only a 18 months ago that Labour were in full blown collapse mode and we are still far enough away from the next generation election, no later than Jan 2025, that a new leader could come in and still have enough time to turn things around. Boris resigning, by all accounts, has had a very mixed reaction across the country. Those who only voted for him will need to be convinced they can continue to vote Tory and I think someone like Ms Badenoch, who has a small connection to BJs government could be seen as that fresh approach. The problem as with the Labour Party right now is that it is trying to hard to appeal to everyone on every side and whilst that may look good in a speech or on paper it is no secret that government simply cannot appeal to every subset of society, let alone appease them all. Currently the Labour Party stands for everything and nothing simultaneously. Your point about Havering is completely nonsensical as it has been NOC since 2014 and previously NOC between 1986 and 2006. Yes between that it was Tory but Labour was strong until the late 90s when the independents took larger control. Ms Badenoch could be the best thing since sliced bread but I’d be very surprised if she won the leadership race. It will likely be someone known to the public & with some sort of previous role in cabinet who ends up taking over. |
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Post by MetrolineGA1511 on Jul 9, 2022 15:17:09 GMT
Although I do like you, I just need to ask you not to take Metroline buses in vain like this.  Well, he has always been a bit of a DEL boy, which has caught him out in the long run Like the current 268 fleet, he was great in 2012 but it's an uphill struggle now  As he's been a DEL boy I'd have predicted him riding route 331 rather than route 268, especially as it serves his own constituency. |
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Post by MetrolineGA1511 on Jul 9, 2022 15:31:54 GMT
Kemi Badenoch has joined the race this morning. If it gets to membership voting she might get mine. I like her and she does seem to have a refreshing take on modern conservatism. Issue being the refreshing take on modern conservatism still seems to be a huge mess. I think whoever wins this very quickly becomes the Gordon Brown of the Tories. Fighting an uphill battle with an ever increasingly powerful Labour Party on their tail. It's quite clear that red wall will be coming back by this point and I wouldn't be surprised to see a lot more in the South turn red too, especially those around London. Even Havering now having a council on the left when it's a traditionally Tory area. I believe a poll the other day put Sunak as the only PM that could have any chance of beating the Labour Party in polls, and that's only with a very razor thin 1% lead. It's also the Liberal Democrats recovering and people getting back into the habit of voting tactically. So even on a small adverse swing the Tories could lose enough seats to lose office. |
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Post by southlondon413 on Jul 9, 2022 15:48:05 GMT
Issue being the refreshing take on modern conservatism still seems to be a huge mess. I think whoever wins this very quickly becomes the Gordon Brown of the Tories. Fighting an uphill battle with an ever increasingly powerful Labour Party on their tail. It's quite clear that red wall will be coming back by this point and I wouldn't be surprised to see a lot more in the South turn red too, especially those around London. Even Havering now having a council on the left when it's a traditionally Tory area. I believe a poll the other day put Sunak as the only PM that could have any chance of beating the Labour Party in polls, and that's only with a very razor thin 1% lead. It's also the Liberal Democrats recovering and people getting back into the habit of voting tactically. So even on a small adverse swing the Tories could lose enough seats to lose office. Typically only around 25% of voters do so tactically and I don’t see that changing for a near future general election. It happens a lot at by-elections because it usually can be seen as a message to a sitting government, less so at general elections. I would be more worried about voter numbers in general. We could see much lower turnout or an increase in spoiled ballots as Tory or Labour voters would stay home rather than vote Lib Dem. I for one would never vote Lib Dem because of the mess they made in the coalition and the complete abandonment of policies just for a bit of power. Personally I think it’s the hidden Tory voter that will continue to prop up a small majority in another general election. |
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Post by vjaska on Jul 9, 2022 16:23:02 GMT
It's also the Liberal Democrats recovering and people getting back into the habit of voting tactically. So even on a small adverse swing the Tories could lose enough seats to lose office. Typically only around 25% of voters do so tactically and I don’t see that changing for a near future general election. It happens a lot at by-elections because it usually can be seen as a message to a sitting government, less so at general elections. I would be more worried about voter numbers in general. We could see much lower turnout or an increase in spoiled ballots as Tory or Labour voters would stay home rather than vote Lib Dem. I for one would never vote Lib Dem because of the mess they made in the coalition and the complete abandonment of policies just for a bit of power. Personally I think it’s the hidden Tory voter that will continue to prop up a small majority in another general election. But you would still vote Tory who were also part of that awful coalition and who have played a massive part in the mess we are currently in? |
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Post by ServerKing on Jul 9, 2022 16:36:55 GMT
A messy leadership contest has kicked off... at the moment it's the nutters and oddball stage of X Factor, I'll tune back in when they get to Judges Houses |
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Post by southlondon413 on Jul 9, 2022 16:42:34 GMT
Typically only around 25% of voters do so tactically and I don’t see that changing for a near future general election. It happens a lot at by-elections because it usually can be seen as a message to a sitting government, less so at general elections. I would be more worried about voter numbers in general. We could see much lower turnout or an increase in spoiled ballots as Tory or Labour voters would stay home rather than vote Lib Dem. I for one would never vote Lib Dem because of the mess they made in the coalition and the complete abandonment of policies just for a bit of power. Personally I think it’s the hidden Tory voter that will continue to prop up a small majority in another general election. But you would still vote Tory who were also part of that awful coalition and who have played a massive part in the mess we are currently in? Yes I would as my values line up more with theirs. But I sit more towards the centre right than right itself. When you consider the damage the Lib Dems have done to the borough I live in at a local level you wouldn’t vote for them either on a national level. |
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Post by WH241 on Jul 9, 2022 17:15:30 GMT
Grant Shapps and Nadhim Zahawi are the latest to put themselves foward in the leadership contest!
Perhaps TfL can sneak a funding deal through whilst Grant Shapps is distracted 😜
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Post by northlondon83 on Jul 9, 2022 17:21:16 GMT
Anyone who mentions Peppa pig in a climate speech isn't sane enough to be the PM
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Post by vjaska on Jul 9, 2022 18:55:15 GMT
But you would still vote Tory who were also part of that awful coalition and who have played a massive part in the mess we are currently in? Yes I would as my values line up more with theirs. But I sit more towards the centre right than right itself. When you consider the damage the Lib Dems have done to the borough I live in at a local level you wouldn’t vote for them either on a national level. Fair enough - I wouldn't vote Lib Dem primarily because they were part of that coalition and their values don't particularly align with my own - besides, they have no chance of getting in at Lambeth which is historically staunch Labour even though they did increase their sitting on the council at the last local elections |
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