|
|
Post by MetrolineGA1511 on Jul 13, 2024 21:29:19 GMT
There appears to be a pretty determined effort to prevent Braverman getting anywhere near the leadership, given how toxic she is and how much of a lose cannon she's become. I doubt she'll get to the final two now, she seems too divisive and would probably alienate even more of the Tories' traditional core vote. Kemi Badenoch is looking a strong contender though, she is also big on the culture wars but doesn't carry the same baggage that Braverman has. Robert Jenrick has also been adopting much more hardline rhetoric on issues like immigration in recent months as he looks to pander to that section of the party and some outlets are saying Jenrick's chances are in the ascent. If the Tories do move further to the right to quash the perceived threat of Reform they could be playing a dangerous game of losing even more of what support they have left, in favour of speaking to an even narrower set of voters - plus Farage may still well have the charisma and rhetoric that appears more convincing than whatever Badenoch or someone else can offer. I think Suella Braverman shot herself in the foot during her Fareham victory speech. She said I'm sorry my party didn't listen to you. She made herself out to think she is so much better than the party in general. Hardly a way to endear herself to the wider party she claims to want to lead. |
|
|
|
Post by buspete on Jul 27, 2024 1:02:28 GMT
As for Farage and Reform they also had a disappointing election. Disappointing possibly in terms of number of seats won but I think a relatively new party would have been thrilled with over 4 million votes I wouldn’t say they are a relative new party, they been around for a long time, they just keep changing their branding from time to time. The further the Tories get away from Tufton Street (HQ for weird think tanks and lobby groups) the better, so that would rule out Braverman completely. After the hammering the Tories had they would be advised to have someone that will actually listen, then make coherent arguments, when the time comes. As for Farage and Reform they also had a disappointing election. Labour only got 33.7% of the vote. That is what a election win looks like. Labour only got 33.7% of the vote. Which only represents about 20% of the population, hardly a runaway majority. That is what a election win looks like. |
|
|
|
Post by buspete on Jul 27, 2024 1:06:57 GMT
So at the moment a 4 horse race with;
James Cleverley (Privately Educated)
Robert Jenrick (Privately Educated)
Mel Stride (Privately Educated)
Tom Tugendhat (Privately Educated)
|
|
|
|
Post by borneobus on Jul 27, 2024 2:37:28 GMT
So at the moment a 4 horse race with; James Cleverley (Privately Educated) Robert Jenrick (Privately Educated) Mel Stride (Privately Educated) Tom Tugendhat (Privately Educated) My prediction is that the contest will be won by a state-educated female. |
|
|
|
Post by rif153 on Jul 27, 2024 19:15:04 GMT
Of the candidates who have declared so far I think Jenrick is looking the most likely to win. He's been on manouvres for some time and will take the party to the right on issues like immigration, extremism and the ECHR but I think he appears reasonably competent too. If the Tories do go that way then it only makes sense for them to do some sort of deal with Reform to nullify that threat though. Like it or not there is a sizeable market for right-wing populism in the UK and if the Tories and Reform can do a deal it could be devastatingly effective like it was in 2019. When UKIP collapsed I think around 2/3rds of their vote broke to the Tories and if the Tories can get enough of the Reform vote in their column in the right seats they could probably win an election with 33% of the vote similar to what Labour have just done.
|
|
|
|
Post by Eastlondoner62 on Jul 27, 2024 20:43:33 GMT
Of the candidates who have declared so far I think Jenrick is looking the most likely to win. He's been on manouvres for some time and will take the party to the right on issues like immigration, extremism and the ECHR but I think he appears reasonably competent too. If the Tories do go that way then it only makes sense for them to do some sort of deal with Reform to nullify that threat though. Like it or not there is a sizeable market for right-wing populism in the UK and if the Tories and Reform can do a deal it could be devastatingly effective like it was in 2019. When UKIP collapsed I think around 2/3rds of their vote broke to the Tories and if the Tories can get enough of the Reform vote in their column in the right seats they could probably win an election with 33% of the vote similar to what Labour have just done. The flip side is that if you do an election pact with reform, some existing Tory voters who voted Tory in this election just gone may ditch the party completely. Which would cost the Tories more than anything has in the past. |
|
|
|
Post by Paul on Jul 27, 2024 22:44:20 GMT
Disappointing possibly in terms of number of seats won but I think a relatively new party would have been thrilled with over 4 million votes I wouldn’t say they are a relative new party, they been around for a long time, they just keep changing their branding from time to time This is just another example of someone on the left trying desperately to play down the rise of Reform. This is far bigger than UKIP or the Brexit Party could ever hope to have been. I think Reform are here to stay and are only going to get bigger |
|
|
|
Post by Eastlondoner62 on Jul 27, 2024 22:55:47 GMT
I wouldn’t say they are a relative new party, they been around for a long time, they just keep changing their branding from time to time This is just another example of someone on the left trying desperately to play down the rise of Reform. This is far bigger than UKIP or the Brexit Party could ever hope to have been. I think Reform are here to stay and are only going to get bigger I wouldn't be surprised if that's what Labour want. If Reform get bigger, the Conservatives will only get smaller. There's a small chunk of Tory voters who have ditched the Tories over this, but this is likely going to be the highest number of voter defectors we get from Tory to Reform, so whoever voted Tory in the election just gone had a compelling reason to not go to Reform and chances are that it's because Reform are too right wing. If the Tories effectively dissolve because of Reform getting bigger then their existing voters are likely to switch to the Liberal Democrats instead making them the second biggest party, but also effectively giving Labour free reign as well. The left are likely to unite should there ever be a case of Reform eventually posing a threat and much like what happened in France it would likely lead to a win in such case. If people desperately want something right wing, their best bet will be to stick with the Tories as I doubt Reform will ever gain enough popularity to make it anywhere near government. |
|
|
|
Post by buspete on Jul 27, 2024 22:58:55 GMT
The Tories would have still been hammered if they went with the Reform party again, not by as much though.
What to say that Labour/Liberals/Greens won’t form a super coalition in 2029 and not stand against each other. The Tories face the same problems as they did in the the recent general election in that Labour/Liberal target seats are mostly Tory. 26 out of 30 liberal top target seats are Labour.
Priti Patel (state?) has thrown her hat in the ring.
|
|
|
|
Post by buspete on Jul 27, 2024 23:08:23 GMT
I wouldn’t say they are a relative new party, they been around for a long time, they just keep changing their branding from time to time This is just another example of someone on the left trying desperately to play down the rise of Reform. This is far bigger than UKIP or the Brexit Party could ever hope to have been. I think Reform are here to stay and are only going to get bigger Reform were hoping to get over 40 seats at the GE, their GE was very disappointing. Anyway Reform could do well until Nigel’s narcissism rears its head and then the self destruct button gets pushed. Just like why UKIP imploded. Nothing desperate in me playing down the rise of Reform, parties based on racism never do well. |
|
|
|
Post by vjaska on Jul 27, 2024 23:52:18 GMT
I wouldn’t say they are a relative new party, they been around for a long time, they just keep changing their branding from time to time This is just another example of someone on the left trying desperately to play down the rise of Reform. This is far bigger than UKIP or the Brexit Party could ever hope to have been. I think Reform are here to stay and are only going to get bigger It's got nothing to do with the left but everything to do with how effective they'll really be and it really depends on what happens with the next Tory leader. Until we know who that is and whether they wish to align with Reform or try and actually move back towards the center ground which is the only credible place for any government to be, no one can be sure how effective Reform will be. |
|
|
|
Post by greenboy on Jul 28, 2024 4:19:05 GMT
This is just another example of someone on the left trying desperately to play down the rise of Reform. This is far bigger than UKIP or the Brexit Party could ever hope to have been. I think Reform are here to stay and are only going to get bigger Reform were hoping to get over 40 seats at the GE, their GE was very disappointing. Anyway Reform could do well until Nigel’s narcissism rears its head and then the self destruct button gets pushed. Just like why UKIP imploded. Nothing desperate in me playing down the rise of Reform, parties based on racism never do well. Your race card has been declined, do you have another form of argument? |
|
|
|
Post by Eastlondoner62 on Jul 28, 2024 8:48:07 GMT
Reform were hoping to get over 40 seats at the GE, their GE was very disappointing. Anyway Reform could do well until Nigel’s narcissism rears its head and then the self destruct button gets pushed. Just like why UKIP imploded. Nothing desperate in me playing down the rise of Reform, parties based on racism never do well. Your race card has been declined, do you have another form of argument? How exactly was that declined? When it was proved on multiple occasions. |
|
|
|
Post by greenboy on Jul 28, 2024 9:35:49 GMT
Your race card has been declined, do you have another form of argument? How exactly was that declined? When it was proved on multiple occasions. What has been proved? |
|
|
|
Post by buspete on Jul 28, 2024 21:16:34 GMT
Your race card has been declined, do you have another form of argument? How exactly was that declined? When it was proved on multiple occasions. Don’t worry I had this before the General Election from the same poster after an unsavoury incident involving racism from the said party. I didn’t raise to the bait, I just let the news cycle do it’s work instead and it did its work. |
|
