|
|
Post by Eastlondoner62 on Jul 13, 2024 15:21:04 GMT
Yes iv always been a believer in whoever gets the most votes (even by just 1) has won. What I do expect thou is for the percentages to atleast be made known after the election so people don't think the 412 seats necessarily makes Kier Starmer massively popular on only 33% of the vote share. Labour still would have won with 33% of the vote and would have had the right to form a government but with proportional representation they’d be forced to work with minority parties who’d have a greater say over how the government works. As it stands there is a toss up as to whether Labour will succeed with this huge majority or fall down with a hard to control majority causing divisions on the backbenches. Personally I feel like we need a form of mixed member representation. So we could still vote for MP using normal FTP but we’d get a second vote based on PR. Look at how the Germans use MMPR to elect their government, it’s definitely something that could work here. To be honest after the mess France has found itself in I think FPTP has shown its strength and is probably here to stay now. |
|
|
|
Post by southlondon413 on Jul 13, 2024 15:25:03 GMT
Labour still would have won with 33% of the vote and would have had the right to form a government but with proportional representation they’d be forced to work with minority parties who’d have a greater say over how the government works. As it stands there is a toss up as to whether Labour will succeed with this huge majority or fall down with a hard to control majority causing divisions on the backbenches. Personally I feel like we need a form of mixed member representation. So we could still vote for MP using normal FTP but we’d get a second vote based on PR. Look at how the Germans use MMPR to elect their government, it’s definitely something that could work here. To be honest after the mess France has found itself in I think FPTP has shown its strength and is probably here to stay now. To me that has far more to do with the split election rounds. If France had one round like we do then it probably would have found itself in a very different position. Perhaps the far right would have gained the majority it sought but as those left wing parties essentially consolidated their power after the first round it became impossible to overcome. It will be more interesting to see how that left wing group goes forward with so many split opinions and POVs. It will lead to its own demise. |
|
|
|
Post by MetrolineGA1511 on Jul 13, 2024 21:37:47 GMT
Well done the Greens for winning all four of their target seats (even if it does mean we lose Thangam Debbonaire as a Bristol MP). I wonder how well they could have done had they been able to field candidates in more seats? They are becoming a force to be reckoned with and will certainly keep Labour on their toes, especially if they can work collaboratively on issues with the sizeable Lib-Dem cohort. The Greens did field candidates in a vast majority of constituencies. However, due to limited resources they had to restrict targetting to areas well-represented with plenty of Councillors. |
|
|
|
Post by MetrolineGA1511 on Jul 13, 2024 21:41:55 GMT
I thought they would have got more in London, I think some of the seats did not change as expected due to issues around Palestine. A lot of viral social media messages were going around telling Muslim voters to not vote certain MP's who were not supportive of Palestine. When Chingford and Woodford Green was being announced, ex-Labour candidate Faiza Shaheen looked visibly upset at her replacement and Ian Duncan Smith's results. He won't admit it, but even Smith looked surprised that he held onto his seat. It is not a reflection of the country but in some metropolitan areas like with Leicester, the issues around Gaza are just as important as domestic woes. Starmer would take in the win, but it would be foolish to ignore Palestinian issues and the low voter turnout. Let's see how he addresses these concerns while in office. I was saddened that Faiza missed out, given that some other independents did get in. It is remarkably that she fell only 79 votes short of the replacement Labour candidate, who would have had the Labour party machinery backing her. Talking of Leicester, in addition to Jonathan Ashworth losing Leicester South, Leicester East was the only Conservative gain. You could say it was 2024's Putney.  |
|
|
|
Post by Eastlondoner62 on Jul 13, 2024 22:12:42 GMT
When Chingford and Woodford Green was being announced, ex-Labour candidate Faiza Shaheen looked visibly upset at her replacement and Ian Duncan Smith's results. He won't admit it, but even Smith looked surprised that he held onto his seat. It is not a reflection of the country but in some metropolitan areas like with Leicester, the issues around Gaza are just as important as domestic woes. Starmer would take in the win, but it would be foolish to ignore Palestinian issues and the low voter turnout. Let's see how he addresses these concerns while in office. I was saddened that Faiza missed out, given that some other independents did get in. It is remarkably that she fell only 79 votes short of the replacement Labour candidate, who would have had the Labour party machinery backing her. Talking of Leicester, in addition to Jonathan Ashworth losing Leicester South, Leicester East was the only Conservative gain. You could say it was 2024's Putney. Why are you saddened? She had a history of liking inflammatory tweets, and if the Labour Party aren't happy to disclose what they were publicly then it was probably not any good. The party would have anticipated a split vote but probably saw keeping her on as the bigger risk. I'm not sure why people seem to be taking Gaza into account so heavily during a General election and it probably comes down to a lack of awareness on what is actually going on over in the Middle East alongside a lack of awareness of the political system. All the pro-Gaza independents who got voted in wrote a letter to Lammy which will now probably get ignored and fall under a sofa somewhere so I hope all the people who used their vote on that and got an MP into parliament on that are happy with their action. While on the contrary if they voted for a Labour MP they'd have had a voice on the government benches, or if they'd have voted for a Conservative MP they'd have had a voice on the Opposition benches which is a lot more powerful than having no party backing at all. These independent MPs are now unlikely to be able to play any part in legislation as Labour isn't on a razor thin majority to a point it needs to rely on any opposition parties at all and they're unlikely to align politically with the Conservatives so as a result these constituencies now will probably just get ditched in some form or the other as they have no party backing at all. The others parties are at least parties so will have some form of influence but this won't be achieved by independent MPs. |
|
|
|
Post by buspete on Jul 13, 2024 22:25:34 GMT
Good point with Putney, it was just like that.
Another shock was Iain Duncan Smith running again, dead cert to lose his seat - but then goes on and wins again. it is fair to say the vote in Chingford constituency was split between Faisa and the official Labour candidate, which allowed IDS to come through the centre. So was it a mistake not allowing Faisa to run as the official Labour candidate? Well depends- if she run as the official Labour candidate she would have won, but at what cost? She has made anti Semitic posts which may have alienated the Jewish vote in other key target seats such as Chipping Barnet etc.
|
|
|
|
Post by buspete on Jul 16, 2024 17:28:12 GMT
So the Reform candidate for South Basildon and East Thurrock has been convicted and went to prison for hitting a woman.
So this happened over 20 years ago and I believe in rehabilitation, but if a crime is violent or sexual there is no place in being a law maker, I cannot get past this one.
|
|
|
|
Post by greenboy on Jul 16, 2024 17:37:22 GMT
So the Reform candidate for South Basildon and East Thurrock has been convicted and went to prison for hitting a woman. So this happened over 20 years ago and I believe in rehabilitation, but if a crime is violent or sexual there is no place in being a law maker, I cannot get past this one. He was 19 at the time, he is now a father of four and probably a totally different person. |
|
|
|
Post by capitalomnibus on Jul 20, 2024 8:20:44 GMT
Anyway just a quick wrap up on the election and I have been following opinion polls like a hawk before the election, to see if there was any path for the Liberals to become the official opposition, there were. I also mentioned to a colleague that there is always a big surprise in politics. As I said I was following the opinion polls and many very marginal seats were forecast to go to Labour, South West Norfolk was not one of them at any stage. The Liberal Democrat’s were forecast to get between 40 and 60 seats in any case they performed much better than expected winning 72. Labour did well with the biggest swing in history, with 411 seats, but the super surge didn’t come and many weak seats like Daventry, Old Bexley &;Sidcup, Romford or Mid Devon switching to Conservative , Another path for Liberals to come the opposition was for Reform to do well and take many Tory seats, they sorely and thankfully underperformed however the forecast surge that Labour would get near on 500 seats never came and that the Tories would become the official opposition. There were minor shocks with Jonathan Ashworth for Labour unexpectedly losing his seat, where Penny Mordant, Gillian Keenan and Grant Shapps expectantly losing theres. Then at 6:15am and bleary eyed the result from South West Norfolk came in and at no stage was this forecast to switch, it was nailed on blue even with the incumbent MP, they say politics is a cruel mistress and you get what you deserve in politics and this was indeed the case - that the Lady Jane Grey of politics was deposed, so by 620 votes Liz Truss a political career was finished, even being a former Prime Minister couldn’t save her. That was the 1997 Michael Portillo moment. Not quite the same, do no think anything could match the Portillo moment. The look on his face was priceless. |
|
|
|
Post by COBO on Jul 20, 2024 12:46:37 GMT
Do you think that the country knew what they were voting for when they voted for Brexit?
|
|
|
|
Post by vjaska on Jul 20, 2024 12:56:18 GMT
Do you think that the country knew what they were voting for when they voted for Brexit? Some did but certainly I’d say most didn’t. |
|
|
|
Post by wirewiper on Jul 20, 2024 15:07:01 GMT
Do you think that the country knew what they were voting for when they voted for Brexit? Always remember that 48% of the votes cast were actually to remain in the EU (mine was). And London was overwhelmingly a "Remain" city. |
|
|
|
Post by greenboy on Jul 20, 2024 15:44:51 GMT
Do you think that the country knew what they were voting for when they voted for Brexit? Obviously not as it was the first time it had ever happened although I think most people had a pretty good idea. Anyway most people have long since accepted the outcome and moved on just as we've had to accept the recent general election result even though I'm not sure many Labour voters knew what they were voting for! |
|
|
|
Post by greenboy on Jul 20, 2024 15:50:04 GMT
Do you think that the country knew what they were voting for when they voted for Brexit? Always remember that 48% of the votes cast were actually to remain in the EU (mine was). And London was overwhelmingly a "Remain" city. But the result was always likely to be that close whichever way it went. Only about 33% voted Labour in the recent general election. |
|
|
|
Post by wirewiper on Jul 20, 2024 16:06:49 GMT
Always remember that 48% of the votes cast were actually to remain in the EU (mine was). And London was overwhelmingly a "Remain" city. But the result was always likely to be that close whichever way it went. Only about 33% voted Labour in the recent general election. First Past The Post usually results in the winning candidates and ultimately the winning party gaining a minority share of the vote as voters have multiple choices of candidate. The EU Referendum was a binary choice - Remain or Leave. I recall Nigel Farage saying that he would not have given up campaigning to leave the EU if the vote had been the other way round, i.e. 52% to Remain. |
|
