London Bus Route Usage 2023/2024

[PGAT]

Nov 14, 2024 14:14:40 GMT southlondon413 said:

Nov 14, 2024 13:22:24 GMT PGAT said:

I compared the Purley routes with 2018/19 figures and here are my insights:

60: 6,218,371 (5,550,208)
127: 4,108,850 (3,617,000)
166: 1,084,155 (1,157,312)
289: 3,448,970 (2,515,534)
312: 1,487,833 (1,675,178)
359: 204,111 (295,579)
405: 1,585,000 (1,840,598)
407: 3,678,908 (3,524,618)
412: 761,415 (1,058,470)
434: 236,788 (281,453)
439: 19,837 (0)
455: 1,274,855 (1,373,659)
466: 3,883,983 (3,875,693)

Increasing the frequency does have a significant impact on patronage (not surprising!) but it goes both ways. The relationship between the 359’s usage and bus Km operated was almost precisely linear, implying that the demand was there but is being strangled by the cumbersome frequency.

The 405 and 412’s cut from West Croydon have become really evident as they struggle to return to their previous levels. The 312 and 434 aren’t quite there yet but are likely to be saved by their extensions and rerouting.

Finally, don’t underestimate the impact of converting a route to double decker! The 289 has soared at a higher rate than any of the other routes despite now being supported by the 439. Likewise, the 407 has noticeably seen an uptick in patronage despite no frequency increases and the threat of the 434 and SL7 poaching some of the traffic. Clearly decking a route catalyses growth to an extent greater than people appreciate

Specifically for the 407 that doesn’t seem that huge an increase in numbers considering it has been double decker since mid-2019. Obviously I know we’ve had a pandemic but still relatively small growth compared to the extra capacity larger buses offer.

Still, I was expecting a decline after the SL7’s massive rise

[DE20106]

Nov 14, 2024 13:22:24 GMT PGAT said:

I compared the Purley routes with 2018/19 figures and here are my insights:

60: 6,218,371 (5,550,208)
127: 4,108,850 (3,617,000)
166: 1,084,155 (1,157,312)
289: 3,448,970 (2,515,534)
312: 1,487,833 (1,675,178)
359: 204,111 (295,579)
405: 1,585,000 (1,840,598)
407: 3,678,908 (3,524,618)
412: 761,415 (1,058,470)
434: 236,788 (281,453)
439: 19,837 (0)
455: 1,274,855 (1,373,659)
466: 3,883,983 (3,875,693)

Increasing the frequency does have a significant impact on patronage (not surprising!) but it goes both ways. The relationship between the 359’s usage and bus Km operated was almost precisely linear, implying that the demand was there but is being strangled by the cumbersome frequency.

The 405 and 412’s cut from West Croydon have become really evident as they struggle to return to their previous levels. The 312 and 434 aren’t quite there yet but are likely to be saved by their extensions and rerouting.

Finally, don’t underestimate the impact of converting a route to double decker! The 289 has soared at a higher rate than any of the other routes despite now being supported by the 439. Likewise, the 407 has noticeably seen an uptick in patronage despite no frequency increases and the threat of the 434 and SL7 poaching some of the traffic. Clearly decking a route catalyses growth to an extent greater than people appreciate

I don’t think decking a route will in itself increase patronage though, there are examples of where decking routes hasn’t really stimulated much extra usage. The 178, 291 and 428 spring to mind. No doubt the 291 needed decking as it couldn’t cope with single deckers, but its usage hasn’t exactly exploded since it happened, only a slight uptick. I think a decking helps boost patronage though if it has capacity issues, maybe because people previously put off using it now decide to give it a try because they can travel in a bit better comfort and less risk of being left behind. In the 289’s case I think it’s there’s been some new housing go up, which has stimulated more usage.

Capitalomnibus mentioned the 165, but to be fair its latest figure was counted before its decker conversion. We’ll see in 2025 if its decking really has had an effect on the real numbers. I agree it did need deckers though and it was probably very welcome, but it’s still way off routes like the 235 and 170

[southlondon413]

Nov 14, 2024 14:17:08 GMT PGAT said:

Nov 14, 2024 14:14:40 GMT southlondon413 said:

Specifically for the 407 that doesn’t seem that huge an increase in numbers considering it has been double decker since mid-2019. Obviously I know we’ve had a pandemic but still relatively small growth compared to the extra capacity larger buses offer.

Still, I was expecting a decline after the SL7’s massive rise

To the contrary the 213 has also seen an increase despite the SL7 being in play for the latter half of 2023. It just proves my point that despite demand for “express” services the stopping services are still needed in full to support growth. 2024 may prove different but based on my own, almost daily, 213 journeys there hasn’t been a decline in passengers.

[DT 11]

Nov 14, 2024 13:22:24 GMT PGAT said:

I compared the Purley routes with 2018/19 figures and here are my insights:

60: 6,218,371 (5,550,208)
127: 4,108,850 (3,617,000)
166: 1,084,155 (1,157,312)
289: 3,448,970 (2,515,534)
312: 1,487,833 (1,675,178)
359: 204,111 (295,579)
405: 1,585,000 (1,840,598)
407: 3,678,908 (3,524,618)
412: 761,415 (1,058,470)
434: 236,788 (281,453)
439: 19,837 (0)
455: 1,274,855 (1,373,659)
466: 3,883,983 (3,875,693)

Increasing the frequency does have a significant impact on patronage (not surprising!) but it goes both ways. The relationship between the 359’s usage and bus Km operated was almost precisely linear, implying that the demand was there but is being strangled by the cumbersome frequency.

The 405 and 412’s cut from West Croydon have become really evident as they struggle to return to their previous levels. The 312 and 434 aren’t quite there yet but are likely to be saved by their extensions and rerouting.

Finally, don’t underestimate the impact of converting a route to double decker! The 289 has soared at a higher rate than any of the other routes despite now being supported by the 439. Likewise, the 407 has noticeably seen an uptick in patronage despite no frequency increases and the threat of the 434 and SL7 poaching some of the traffic. Clearly decking a route catalyses growth to an extent greater than people appreciate

The increase on Route 60 is very interesting. I suspect pretty much because of the routes cut in Croydon such as the 264 405 etc. There are a lot of quick journeys in Croydon.

[DT 11]

Nov 13, 2024 19:50:35 GMT LK65EBO said:

Some of those top SD routes really ought to be DD routes.

A lot of them in that list have low bridges or certain restrictions

[PGAT]

Nov 14, 2024 16:18:41 GMT DT 11 said:

Nov 14, 2024 13:22:24 GMT PGAT said:

I compared the Purley routes with 2018/19 figures and here are my insights:

60: 6,218,371 (5,550,208)
127: 4,108,850 (3,617,000)
166: 1,084,155 (1,157,312)
289: 3,448,970 (2,515,534)
312: 1,487,833 (1,675,178)
359: 204,111 (295,579)
405: 1,585,000 (1,840,598)
407: 3,678,908 (3,524,618)
412: 761,415 (1,058,470)
434: 236,788 (281,453)
439: 19,837 (0)
455: 1,274,855 (1,373,659)
466: 3,883,983 (3,875,693)

Increasing the frequency does have a significant impact on patronage (not surprising!) but it goes both ways. The relationship between the 359’s usage and bus Km operated was almost precisely linear, implying that the demand was there but is being strangled by the cumbersome frequency.

The 405 and 412’s cut from West Croydon have become really evident as they struggle to return to their previous levels. The 312 and 434 aren’t quite there yet but are likely to be saved by their extensions and rerouting.

Finally, don’t underestimate the impact of converting a route to double decker! The 289 has soared at a higher rate than any of the other routes despite now being supported by the 439. Likewise, the 407 has noticeably seen an uptick in patronage despite no frequency increases and the threat of the 434 and SL7 poaching some of the traffic. Clearly decking a route catalyses growth to an extent greater than people appreciate

The increase on Route 60 is very interesting. I suspect pretty much because of the routes cut in Croydon such as the 264 405 etc. There are a lot of quick journeys in Croydon.

60 was increased from 5bph to 6 in Late 2019

[DT 11]

Nov 14, 2024 16:36:24 GMT PGAT said:

Nov 14, 2024 16:18:41 GMT DT 11 said:

The increase on Route 60 is very interesting. I suspect pretty much because of the routes cut in Croydon such as the 264 405 etc. There are a lot of quick journeys in Croydon.

60 was increased from 5bph to 6 in Late 2019

Indeed however I notice the 60 has always been busy in Croydon even before that increase.

[vjaska]

Nov 14, 2024 13:22:24 GMT PGAT said:

I compared the Purley routes with 2018/19 figures and here are my insights:

60: 6,218,371 (5,550,208)
127: 4,108,850 (3,617,000)
166: 1,084,155 (1,157,312)
289: 3,448,970 (2,515,534)
312: 1,487,833 (1,675,178)
359: 204,111 (295,579)
405: 1,585,000 (1,840,598)
407: 3,678,908 (3,524,618)
412: 761,415 (1,058,470)
434: 236,788 (281,453)
439: 19,837 (0)
455: 1,274,855 (1,373,659)
466: 3,883,983 (3,875,693)

Increasing the frequency does have a significant impact on patronage (not surprising!) but it goes both ways. The relationship between the 359’s usage and bus Km operated was almost precisely linear, implying that the demand was there but is being strangled by the cumbersome frequency.

The 405 and 412’s cut from West Croydon have become really evident as they struggle to return to their previous levels. The 312 and 434 aren’t quite there yet but are likely to be saved by their extensions and rerouting.

Finally, don’t underestimate the impact of converting a route to double decker! The 289 has soared at a higher rate than any of the other routes despite now being supported by the 439. Likewise, the 407 has noticeably seen an uptick in patronage despite no frequency increases and the threat of the 434 and SL7 poaching some of the traffic. Clearly decking a route catalyses growth to an extent greater than people appreciate

It's more evidence of what happens when you make improvements to frequency (60) or double decking a route that was struggling (289) as well as what happens when you make yet more unnecessary cuts (405 & 412).

Looking at the figures from my own area, it's evident that most have dropped by about £1m since 2018/19 and the vast majority were routes that had frequency cuts and/or routing changes. Even the ones that haven't been cut like the 109 have experienced a drop as well and the 45, a route which was cut back significantly in 2019, dropping by £3m which shows the damage that happens when you make such a drastic change to both routing as well as the frequency decrease it received. The 35's inclusion in the list, whilst positive, does irk me as that would of contributed to the 45's lower passenger numbers given it's frequency increase it gained in 2019 - the management of that route since then has been pretty poor and it's uncommon to see 35's running in twos and three and displaying a multitude of turns that didn't happen frequently when under it's old frequency when it was nicely balanced between itself and the 45 with both routes nicely run. TfL corridors rarely have any co-ordination and so you have common occurrences of multiple 35's turning up before a 45 leaving it with little passengers to pick up and vice versa where you still have busy 45's that comes first, then a bunch of 35's running around pretty empty and this can also skew the figures as well.

[DE20106]

Nov 14, 2024 17:22:20 GMT vjaska said:

Nov 14, 2024 13:22:24 GMT PGAT said:

I compared the Purley routes with 2018/19 figures and here are my insights:

60: 6,218,371 (5,550,208)
127: 4,108,850 (3,617,000)
166: 1,084,155 (1,157,312)
289: 3,448,970 (2,515,534)
312: 1,487,833 (1,675,178)
359: 204,111 (295,579)
405: 1,585,000 (1,840,598)
407: 3,678,908 (3,524,618)
412: 761,415 (1,058,470)
434: 236,788 (281,453)
439: 19,837 (0)
455: 1,274,855 (1,373,659)
466: 3,883,983 (3,875,693)

Increasing the frequency does have a significant impact on patronage (not surprising!) but it goes both ways. The relationship between the 359’s usage and bus Km operated was almost precisely linear, implying that the demand was there but is being strangled by the cumbersome frequency.

The 405 and 412’s cut from West Croydon have become really evident as they struggle to return to their previous levels. The 312 and 434 aren’t quite there yet but are likely to be saved by their extensions and rerouting.

Finally, don’t underestimate the impact of converting a route to double decker! The 289 has soared at a higher rate than any of the other routes despite now being supported by the 439. Likewise, the 407 has noticeably seen an uptick in patronage despite no frequency increases and the threat of the 434 and SL7 poaching some of the traffic. Clearly decking a route catalyses growth to an extent greater than people appreciate

It's more evidence of what happens when you make improvements to frequency (60) or double decking a route that was struggling (289) as well as what happens when you make yet more unnecessary cuts (405 & 412).

Looking at the figures from my own area, it's evident that most have dropped by about £1m since 2018/19 and the vast majority were routes that had frequency cuts and/or routing changes. Even the ones that haven't been cut like the 109 have experienced a drop as well and the 45, a route which was cut back significantly in 2019, dropping by £3m which shows the damage that happens when you make such a drastic change to both routing as well as the frequency decrease it received. The 35's inclusion in the list, whilst positive, does irk me as that would of contributed to the 45's lower passenger numbers given it's frequency increase it gained in 2019 - the management of that route since then has been pretty poor and it's uncommon to see 35's running in twos and three and displaying a multitude of turns that didn't happen frequently when under it's old frequency when it was nicely balanced between itself and the 45 with both routes nicely run. TfL corridors rarely have any co-ordination and so you have common occurrences of multiple 35's turning up before a 45 leaving it with little passengers to pick up and vice versa where you still have busy 45's that comes first, then a bunch of 35's running around pretty empty and this can also skew the figures as well.

You’re right about skewing the figures, had the 25 extras remained between Mile End and Ilford instead of having a 4 put in front of it (ie the 425 extension), the 25 would still be hands down the busiest bus route. The 425 hasn’t really got busier per se when it was extended, it’s just a transfer of existing passengers.

[mondraker275]

Alot of routes have had increases but have also had more km operated so it is hard to tell if there is a genuine demand increase. We need see the change in usage/km between last year and this. It may minimise the skew with route changes/frequency changes.

[PGAT]

Nov 14, 2024 18:25:08 GMT mondraker275 said:

Alot of routes have had increases but have also had more km operated so it is hard to tell if there is a genuine demand increase. We need see the change in usage/km between last year and this. It may minimise the skew with route changes/frequency changes.

You can compare how the usage and km operated change relative to each other and by that metric the 423 leads by quite some way (>2x passengers basically for free)

[greenboy]

I suspect Tramlink disruption is a significant factor in the 289 increase.

[southlondonbus]

Nov 13, 2024 23:37:37 GMT YX10FFN said:

Top 20 least used double deck routes:

20: 292 - 1,542,749 (+5)
19: 403 - 1,540,993 (-2)
18: 496 - 1,538,870 (-1)
17: 313 - 1,497,352 (+1)
16: 418 - 1,461,511 (-2)
15: 372 - 1,455,755 (+1)
14: 335 - 1,396,858 (+1)
13: 406 - 1,384,171 (+3)
12: 401 - 1,378,813 (-5)
11: 353 - 1,319,970 (-)
10: 357 - 1,293,843 (-2)
9: 428 - 1,272,355 (-)
8: 492 - 1,205,819 (-)
7: 215 - 1,033,153 (-)
6: 498 - 937,544 (-)
5: 317 - 858,305 (-)
4: 412 - 761,415 (-)
3: 481 - 511,183 (-)
2: X68 - 372,763 (-) (also known as SL6)
1: 467 - 147,932 (-)

Note- lists do not include any new Superloop routes as they were not operational for the whole of the data period.

761k passengers on the 412 despite its new contract now contract costing £2.7m.
Even if everyone paid a fare it wouldn't bring in even half the cost and let's face it a route that's DD pretty much just for schools is more like 60 or 70% free travel.

[londonbuses]

Nov 14, 2024 18:25:08 GMT mondraker275 said:

Alot of routes have had increases but have also had more km operated so it is hard to tell if there is a genuine demand increase. We need see the change in usage/km between last year and this. It may minimise the skew with route changes/frequency changes.

Its rare that there will be a massive change in usage without a similar change in km operated, because more often than not demand is induced by improvements - when frequencies are increased, demand will increase, and when frequencies are decreased, demand will decrease. For example, the SL7 has pretty much had an 100% increase in usage (not in these figures as the increase happened halfway through the year) but has also had an 100% increase in frequency and therefore km operated, so the passengers per km will be very similar to before.

The only potential exception to this is upgrading routes to longer buses or double deckers, as they will have more capacity with the same number of km operated.

The only route which has experienced passengers per km increase by more than 50% from pre-Covid is the 423, but that is an anomaly as about 2/3 of the route used to be in the Heathrow free zone, so the majority of those journeys took place before but weren't recorded.

[enviroPB]

Speaking briefly on day buses, looks like the Thames Water archaeological dig of East Ham has affected the 5 and 238's figures. Closing three consecutive stops in town centres will drive people away, myself included as I've avoided through East Ham since January because of this. Also interesting that the 86 trumped the 25 as the ruler of Romford Road, especially after it saw half of its buses turned away from Stratford in March due to the Forest Gate police station fire. I was going to attribute the rise in figures to the 8 min Sunday frequency, but that happened after the cutoff date. Perhaps the new electrics on the 86 was a contributing factor to the passenger uplift? 

I love seeing how even the Superloop figures are for the SL2, SL3 and SL5. You can see that they started operating weeks apart by the even (or mean) distribution of passengers, which pleases the statistician in me. 

Night buses wise, there is not much difference. The most frequent night buses are in top spot as expected, but the N18 is third. It does often leave people behind so TfL were right to look into increasing resources at night on Harrow Road. Also quite a noticeable jump in the N26; expected when it's the only route now between Trafalgar Sqaure and Liverpool Street after the N11 curtailment. I also wonder if passengers at Victoria are using the N26 as an alternative to the N38 to Walthamstow; there's only a 2 minute difference in journey time during weeknights so wouldn't be surprised. And the N1 slumps in the table because of the stealthy cut in weekend frequencies from 3bph to 2bph in September which was never consulted on.