|
|
Post by matthieu1221 on Nov 14, 2024 23:33:01 GMT
I've tossed up a quick Excel (on less sleep than advisable so let me know if any errors are present) comparing pre-Covid (2018/19) usage and km with the 2023/24 equivalent. Link here. |
|
|
|
Post by I-Azusio-I on Nov 15, 2024 12:37:55 GMT
Speaking briefly on day buses, looks like the Thames Water archaeological dig of East Ham has affected the 5 and 238's figures. Closing three consecutive stops in town centres will drive people away, myself included as I've avoided through East Ham since January because of this. Also interesting that the 86 trumped the 25 as the ruler of Romford Road, especially after it saw half of its buses turned away from Stratford in March due to the Forest Gate police station fire. I was going to attribute the rise in figures to the 8 min Sunday frequency, but that happened after the cutoff date. Perhaps the new electrics on the 86 was a contributing factor to the passenger uplift?  I love seeing how even the Superloop figures are for the SL2, SL3 and SL5. You can see that they started operating weeks apart by the even (or mean) distribution of passengers, which pleases the statistician in me.  Night buses wise, there is not much difference. The most frequent night buses are in top spot as expected, but the N18 is third. It does often leave people behind so TfL were right to look into increasing resources at night on Harrow Road. Also quite a noticeable jump in the N26; expected when it's the only route now between Trafalgar Sqaure and Liverpool Street after the N11 curtailment. I also wonder if passengers at Victoria are using the N26 as an alternative to the N38 to Walthamstow; there's only a 2 minute difference in journey time during weeknights so wouldn't be surprised. And the N1 slumps in the table because of the stealthy cut in weekend frequencies from 3bph to 2bph in September which was never consulted on.  All this time, I was under the impression that N1 was still every 20 during the weekends 😭. The frequency cut is a shame because N1 is usually busy throughout the night (at least from TCR to Thamesmead), even on weeknights. It plays the same role as N53, N89 and N136 where they transport passengers to the far ends of South east where there isn't much or any alternatives for night bus transport. N199 does the same but it's not as busy as the routes mentioned above so its weekend frequency cut was justified. |
|
|
|
Post by enviroPB on Nov 15, 2024 13:14:42 GMT
Speaking briefly on day buses, looks like the Thames Water archaeological dig of East Ham has affected the 5 and 238's figures. Closing three consecutive stops in town centres will drive people away, myself included as I've avoided through East Ham since January because of this. Also interesting that the 86 trumped the 25 as the ruler of Romford Road, especially after it saw half of its buses turned away from Stratford in March due to the Forest Gate police station fire. I was going to attribute the rise in figures to the 8 min Sunday frequency, but that happened after the cutoff date. Perhaps the new electrics on the 86 was a contributing factor to the passenger uplift? I love seeing how even the Superloop figures are for the SL2, SL3 and SL5. You can see that they started operating weeks apart by the even (or mean) distribution of passengers, which pleases the statistician in me. Night buses wise, there is not much difference. The most frequent night buses are in top spot as expected, but the N18 is third. It does often leave people behind so TfL were right to look into increasing resources at night on Harrow Road. Also quite a noticeable jump in the N26; expected when it's the only route now between Trafalgar Sqaure and Liverpool Street after the N11 curtailment. I also wonder if passengers at Victoria are using the N26 as an alternative to the N38 to Walthamstow; there's only a 2 minute difference in journey time during weeknights so wouldn't be surprised. And the N1 slumps in the table because of the stealthy cut in weekend frequencies from 3bph to 2bph in September which was never consulted on. All this time, I was under the impression that N1 was still every 20 during the weekends 😭. The frequency cut is a shame because N1 is usually busy throughout the night (at least from TCR to Thamesmead), even on weeknights. It plays the same role as N53, N89 and N136 where they transport passengers to the far ends of South east where there isn't much or any alternatives for night bus transport. N199 does the same but it's not as busy as the routes mentioned above so its weekend frequency cut was justified. Its been every 30 mins during the weekends for almost 15 months and only now you're finding out?!   I was acutely aware of the change as that one extra journey timed well with getting onward connections to the N550, 108 and 474 north of the river for me, cutting my journey home to 45 mins instead of 75-80 mins. It's also made worse that one of my close friends in the Surrey Quays area moved to South Bermondsey, so the N1 is the only practical night bus home for me. If usage had remained the same then the N199 definitely would be justified on 3bph on weekends, but Covid has changed the lifestyle habits of some revellers so TfL never had to reverse that temporary pandemic timetable. It still hurts to say that though!  |
|
|
|
Post by Eastlondoner62 on Nov 15, 2024 13:32:10 GMT
Speaking briefly on day buses, looks like the Thames Water archaeological dig of East Ham has affected the 5 and 238's figures. Closing three consecutive stops in town centres will drive people away, myself included as I've avoided through East Ham since January because of this. Also interesting that the 86 trumped the 25 as the ruler of Romford Road, especially after it saw half of its buses turned away from Stratford in March due to the Forest Gate police station fire. I was going to attribute the rise in figures to the 8 min Sunday frequency, but that happened after the cutoff date. Perhaps the new electrics on the 86 was a contributing factor to the passenger uplift? I love seeing how even the Superloop figures are for the SL2, SL3 and SL5. You can see that they started operating weeks apart by the even (or mean) distribution of passengers, which pleases the statistician in me. Night buses wise, there is not much difference. The most frequent night buses are in top spot as expected, but the N18 is third. It does often leave people behind so TfL were right to look into increasing resources at night on Harrow Road. Also quite a noticeable jump in the N26; expected when it's the only route now between Trafalgar Sqaure and Liverpool Street after the N11 curtailment. I also wonder if passengers at Victoria are using the N26 as an alternative to the N38 to Walthamstow; there's only a 2 minute difference in journey time during weeknights so wouldn't be surprised. And the N1 slumps in the table because of the stealthy cut in weekend frequencies from 3bph to 2bph in September which was never consulted on. I believe this is not the first time the 86 has been busier than the 25 so can't imagine the new buses have any relevance. Ever since the 25s cut the 86 and 25 are often neck and neck in terms of usage figures. |
|
|
|
Post by matthieu1221 on Nov 15, 2024 19:59:01 GMT
I've tossed up a quick Excel (on less sleep than advisable so let me know if any errors are present) comparing pre-Covid (2018/19) usage and km with the 2023/24 equivalent. Link here. (Vaguely) Central London Routes where bus usage 2023/24 vs 2018/19 usage is greater than the bus km operated 2023/24 vs 2018/19 (by at least 3 percentage points). Put simply, where cuts to services have been greater than the decline in passenger numbers (or increases to service smaller than the increase in passengers) -- though of course this is not an exact science -- a route could have been overbussed in 2018/19 for example.
Route - Route 2023/24 vs 2018/19 usage - Bus km operated 2023/24 vs 2018/19 - Diff (in percentage points) 6 - 96% - 87% - +9.0pp 9 - 90% - 85% - +5.2pp
12 - 57% - 52% - +5.3pp 15 - 80% - 74% - +6.0pp
21 - 112% - 101% - +11.1pp 26 - 139% - 121% +18.0pp 68 - 97% - 92% - +5.4pp 73 - 91% - 84% - +6.2pp 98 - 107% - 102% - +5.6pp 172 - 99% - 92% - +7.0pp 360 - 103% - 98% - +5.0pp 453 - 101% - 96% - +5.7pp
Those where the Route 2023/24 vs 2018/19 usage and Bus km operated 2023/24 vs 2018/19 are roughly equal (within a ~3pp margin)
Route - Route 2023/24 vs 2018/19 usage - Bus km operated 2023/24 vs 2018/19 - Diff (in percentage points)
1 - 135% - 135% - +0.5pp
17 - 93% - 94% - -1.7pp 25 - 64% - 67% - -2.8pp 27 - 66% - 67% - -1.1pp 35 - 120% - 123% - -2.3pp 36 - 84% - 85% - -1.1pp 38 - 75% - 75% - +0.5pp
52 - 77% - 76% - +0.5pp 76 - 87% - 90% - -2.5pp 91 - 82% - 86% - -3.2pp 100 - 107% - 110% - -3.4pp 113 - 85% - 88% - -3.3pp 139 - 107% - 104% - +2.9pp 148 - 88% - 90% - -2.7pp 149 - 91% - 90% - +1.2pp
176 - 98% - 100% - -1.4pp 205 - 84% - 83% - 1.2pp
242 - 73% - 71% - +1.0pp 254 - 75% - 76% - -0.8pp
277 - 72% - 72% - -0.2pp 344 - 93% - 94% - -1.5pp 390 - 78% - 77% - +0.7pp 436 - 78% - 81% - -2.8pp
|
|
|
|
Post by mark on Nov 16, 2024 8:59:25 GMT
I would be curious to see which routes recovered the fewest users compared to their pre-COVID stats, looking at a few examples. The W9 is only 62.4% of its former 2018-2019 usage. That might be down to the appalling service provided by Sullivan Bus over the last couple of years. Intending passengers simply voted with their feet! |
|
|
|
Post by TB123 on Nov 16, 2024 9:04:28 GMT
I would be curious to see which routes recovered the fewest users compared to their pre-COVID stats, looking at a few examples. The W9 is only 62.4% of its former 2018-2019 usage. That might be down to the appalling service provided by Sullivan Bus over the last couple of years. Intending passengers simply voted with their feet! As well as the new 456 duplicating it in some places, introduced since Covid. And no doubt a higher than average use of concession passes, which nationally have been much slower to recover than farepayers. |
|
|
|
Post by TB123 on Nov 16, 2024 9:32:22 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by mark on Nov 16, 2024 12:36:48 GMT
Top 30 routes with highest percentage change in usage compared to 2022/23 figures:
1. Route X26/SL7 - 154.64% 2. Route 1 - 152.81% The percentage increases are calculated wrongly - the X26/SL7 is +54%, the 1 +52% etc. |
|
|
|
Post by londonbuses on Nov 16, 2024 12:38:31 GMT
Top 30 routes with highest percentage change in usage compared to 2022/23 figures:
1. Route X26/SL7 - 154.64% 2. Route 1 - 152.81% The percentage increases are calculated wrongly - the X26/SL7 is +54%, the 1 +52% etc. They are percentages of this year's usage in terms of last year's usage, so if a route had the exact same number of passengers it would be 100%. |
|
|
|
Post by mark on Nov 16, 2024 12:55:13 GMT
Top 30 routes with highest percentage change in usage compared to 2022/23 figures:
1. Route X26/SL7 - 154.64% 2. Route 1 - 152.81% The percentage increases are calculated wrongly - the X26/SL7 is +54%, the 1 +52% etc. Ah, gotcha - I'd assumed (wrongly) that you were showing percentage growth (or loss). That'll teach me to read the exam question properly! |
|
|
|
Post by YX18KVJ (DLE30221) on Nov 16, 2024 19:36:23 GMT
Seeing this year’s figures, the only thing that registers with me is WOW! How many routes have seen increases in passengers???
The 10 million + crew doesn't seem so elite now with the top 9 busiest route all exceeding it. The 207 is absolutely dominating the west now, sitting comfortably in 4th place! Likewise the SL8 is doing excellent.
The 427 has dipped quite a bit, however that number is very good for a route that has been halved in length! The 133 and 205 which were featured in the top 30 last year have been evicted for the 114 and 250 to make a roaring return also.
As for the SD list… where do I start? The 235 is absolutely smashing it, the only SD route to pass 5 million! Likewise the 195, C10 and 366 are killing it too!
On that note, I cannot leave the 1 unmentioned. 5.8 million, and it’s not even a full year! I can definitely see the 1 make the top 30 in the coming years.
Routes in the Hounslow area are crushing it too, 111 (7.08m), 120 (6.85m), 281 (6.66m) 222 (6.45m), and 237 (6.18m). Absolutely killing it, these routes are, comfortably crowned Hounslow’s top 5 busiest!
And decking the H98 was a very good idea, just imagine if it was still single deck! 5.22m is an excellent figure.
All in all, I am very pleased with this year’s results, and I hope numbers continue to rise!
|
|
|
|
Post by VMH2537 on Nov 16, 2024 20:55:45 GMT
That might be down to the appalling service provided by Sullivan Bus over the last couple of years. Intending passengers simply voted with their feet! As well as the new 456 duplicating it in some places, introduced since Covid. And no doubt a higher than average use of concession passes, which nationally have been much slower to recover than farepayers. I would be curious to see if TfL ever visits both routes (456 & W9) up for a review. Looking at it's current stats, there's no way I can see TfL retaining both routes on its current route structure. Already meeting three times is a recipe from what we know would involve fiddling around with. |
|
|
|
Post by capitalomnibus on Nov 16, 2024 23:39:26 GMT
Speaking briefly on day buses, looks like the Thames Water archaeological dig of East Ham has affected the 5 and 238's figures. Closing three consecutive stops in town centres will drive people away, myself included as I've avoided through East Ham since January because of this. Also interesting that the 86 trumped the 25 as the ruler of Romford Road, especially after it saw half of its buses turned away from Stratford in March due to the Forest Gate police station fire. I was going to attribute the rise in figures to the 8 min Sunday frequency, but that happened after the cutoff date. Perhaps the new electrics on the 86 was a contributing factor to the passenger uplift? I love seeing how even the Superloop figures are for the SL2, SL3 and SL5. You can see that they started operating weeks apart by the even (or mean) distribution of passengers, which pleases the statistician in me. Night buses wise, there is not much difference. The most frequent night buses are in top spot as expected, but the N18 is third. It does often leave people behind so TfL were right to look into increasing resources at night on Harrow Road. Also quite a noticeable jump in the N26; expected when it's the only route now between Trafalgar Sqaure and Liverpool Street after the N11 curtailment. I also wonder if passengers at Victoria are using the N26 as an alternative to the N38 to Walthamstow; there's only a 2 minute difference in journey time during weeknights so wouldn't be surprised. And the N1 slumps in the table because of the stealthy cut in weekend frequencies from 3bph to 2bph in September which was never consulted on. The 25/86 diversion did not last as long as the pathetic roadworks in East Ham. These things ruing an entire route and WOULD drive people away from the route. |
|
|
|
Post by enviroPB on Nov 18, 2024 12:56:33 GMT
Speaking briefly on day buses, looks like the Thames Water archaeological dig of East Ham has affected the 5 and 238's figures. Closing three consecutive stops in town centres will drive people away, myself included as I've avoided through East Ham since January because of this. Also interesting that the 86 trumped the 25 as the ruler of Romford Road, especially after it saw half of its buses turned away from Stratford in March due to the Forest Gate police station fire. I was going to attribute the rise in figures to the 8 min Sunday frequency, but that happened after the cutoff date. Perhaps the new electrics on the 86 was a contributing factor to the passenger uplift? I love seeing how even the Superloop figures are for the SL2, SL3 and SL5. You can see that they started operating weeks apart by the even (or mean) distribution of passengers, which pleases the statistician in me. Night buses wise, there is not much difference. The most frequent night buses are in top spot as expected, but the N18 is third. It does often leave people behind so TfL were right to look into increasing resources at night on Harrow Road. Also quite a noticeable jump in the N26; expected when it's the only route now between Trafalgar Sqaure and Liverpool Street after the N11 curtailment. I also wonder if passengers at Victoria are using the N26 as an alternative to the N38 to Walthamstow; there's only a 2 minute difference in journey time during weeknights so wouldn't be surprised. And the N1 slumps in the table because of the stealthy cut in weekend frequencies from 3bph to 2bph in September which was never consulted on. The 25/86 diversion did not last as long as the pathetic roadworks in East Ham. These things ruing an entire route and WOULD drive people away from the route. The Romford Road diversion lasted 5 weeks, but that mile diversion on one of the busiest corridors in London would've dented the figures; about half the 86s never made it to Stratford. Despite this the 86 still trumped the 25 in usage, so I am pleasantly surprised by this. It seems Thames Water have finished their works on Barking Road and there are only temporary lights outside the Lidl next to East Ham Station. So the area isn't grinding down to a halt anymore but it's simply because motorists and passengers are actively avoiding the area. I'm just waiting on the temporary timetables to disappear from the 5, 238 and 325; the latter two especially as the extra trips that were removed are more acutely felt than the 10bph route 5. |
|
I was acutely aware of the change as that one extra journey timed well with getting onward connections to the N550, 108 and 474 north of the river for me, cutting my journey home to 45 mins instead of 75-80 mins. It's also made worse that one of my close friends in the Surrey Quays area moved to South Bermondsey, so the N1 is the only practical night bus home for me.
