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Post by southlondonbus on Aug 8, 2021 12:35:11 GMT
Some of these cuts though are likely to be based on 2019 figures where office working was normal and it was a bumper year for tourism.
Anyone on here would be lying if they hasn't seem that excess cacpcity had opened up in central London due to many factors including roadworks making bus journeys slower but also tube improvements, Thameslink taking people in to the heart of the City (thereby taking away some need to take a bus to London Bridge), a take up in cycling coupled with people probably happier to have more of a walk then jump on a bus.
Tfl already know that Oxford Street was coping reasonably well in 2019 without the 10/23/73 running along it to Marble Arch. so now they have some massive holes blown in their finances and an obligation to make £300m in savings its not surprising its central London Buses where they are looking for savings unfortunately.
I wouldn't be surprised if some of these cuts/schemes to restructure routes were not already being thought of 2 years ago or mroe.
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Post by wirewiper on Aug 8, 2021 12:36:11 GMT
For me it a lot boils down to wrong timing. Ultimately you can't have passenger demand and number of buses having a large mismatch, but our politicians need to understand this is not the time to be worrying about it, now is the time to maintain funding and service. Why? - It is well known that reducing service levels reduces the number of passengers. Now is the time to welcome passengers back not push them away. If you don't want a car led recovery, then don't reduce the bus service. There are consequences to reducing the bus (and tube) service
- No one yet knows where demand will finally lay following Covid. Only when that is established can services be properly aligned with demand and if need be reduced.
- Many people are happy to get back on buses and be in close proximity to others, but we have to recognise that many others are not. If you reduce the service leaving the remaining buses more crowded you may never get those passengers who at the moment need a bit more space back. If they then get back into cars, that won't be too clever.
- In order to bring passengers back there needs to be a proper marketing campaign, something bigger than that at the start of Covid telling everyone NOT to use buses and tubes. The 'welcome back' advert I have seen just does not do it.
- Many of the central London routes having proposed cuts have lost a lot of passengers due to a lack of tourism. I expect tourists will come back as borders open, so don't cut services now before we know what impact the return of tourism will have.
This is just a recipe for disaster. I will now stick my neck out with with an example, bus 113. It is being cut back to every 8-9 mins and re-routed from Oxford Circus to Marble Arch. This combination will reduce passenger number further and will mean a further cut to the 113 in due course. Paradoxically it will increase the numbers of passengers on the 13 as there will no longer be a benefit in waiting for 113 which goes down Oxford Street. I suspect it will also help the 139 as the last bus route from Baker Street going to Oxford Circus.
Forgive those in power for they know not what they are doing.
Politicians - at local level for sure, but especially at national level since they hold the purse strings - also need to ensure as best they can that what they spend represents value for money. The decline in Central London services has been an ongoing process for some time, and there is evidence that diverting some of those resources into suburban services, which are still enjoying growth, is currently a better use of the money. Don't forget that even in its current dire state, the bus network in London enjoys levels of funding and service frequency that most other places in the UK can only dream about.
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Post by southlondonbus on Aug 8, 2021 12:40:15 GMT
For me it a lot boils down to wrong timing. Ultimately you can't have passenger demand and number of buses having a large mismatch, but our politicians need to understand this is not the time to be worrying about it, now is the time to maintain funding and service. Why? - It is well known that reducing service levels reduces the number of passengers. Now is the time to welcome passengers back not push them away. If you don't want a car led recovery, then don't reduce the bus service. There are consequences to reducing the bus (and tube) service
- No one yet knows where demand will finally lay following Covid. Only when that is established can services be properly aligned with demand and if need be reduced.
- Many people are happy to get back on buses and be in close proximity to others, but we have to recognise that many others are not. If you reduce the service leaving the remaining buses more crowded you may never get those passengers who at the moment need a bit more space back. If they then get back into cars, that won't be too clever.
- In order to bring passengers back there needs to be a proper marketing campaign, something bigger than that at the start of Covid telling everyone NOT to use buses and tubes. The 'welcome back' advert I have seen just does not do it.
- Many of the central London routes having proposed cuts have lost a lot of passengers due to a lack of tourism. I expect tourists will come back as borders open, so don't cut services now before we know what impact the return of tourism will have.
This is just a recipe for disaster. I will now stick my neck out with with an example, bus 113. It is being cut back to every 8-9 mins and re-routed from Oxford Circus to Marble Arch. This combination will reduce passenger number further and will mean a further cut to the 113 in due course. Paradoxically it will increase the numbers of passengers on the 13 as there will no longer be a benefit in waiting for 113 which goes down Oxford Street. I suspect it will also help the 139 as the last bus route from Baker Street going to Oxford Circus.
Forgive those in power for they know not what they are doing.
Quite honestly I think your closing comment is an insult to "those in power" who probably know a lot more than anyone on here does. Yes it is unfortunate that these cuts are happening just as restrictions are being gradually lifted but some of these cuts should have been made a over a year ago, especially the 521. All the empty buses that have been running every few minutes during peak hours on the 521 have to be paid and the X68 should have been suspended as well. I suspect the aim of the Finchley Road reductions is to force more people onto the tube. Obviously services that have been reduced can be increased again at a later date should the demand warrant it although I suspect that main reason for doing it this way at the moment is to avoid the need for consultations. I'm not sure it's time yet for any 'welcome back' campaigns, if a surge back to public transport leads to a parallel surge in covid then who is going to be blamed for that? I've got friends in Sydney and I certainly wouldn't want to be in their situation. Well said
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Post by MetrolineGA1511 on Aug 8, 2021 12:56:29 GMT
For me it a lot boils down to wrong timing. Ultimately you can't have passenger demand and number of buses having a large mismatch, but our politicians need to understand this is not the time to be worrying about it, now is the time to maintain funding and service. Why? - It is well known that reducing service levels reduces the number of passengers. Now is the time to welcome passengers back not push them away. If you don't want a car led recovery, then don't reduce the bus service. There are consequences to reducing the bus (and tube) service
- No one yet knows where demand will finally lay following Covid. Only when that is established can services be properly aligned with demand and if need be reduced.
- Many people are happy to get back on buses and be in close proximity to others, but we have to recognise that many others are not. If you reduce the service leaving the remaining buses more crowded you may never get those passengers who at the moment need a bit more space back. If they then get back into cars, that won't be too clever.
- In order to bring passengers back there needs to be a proper marketing campaign, something bigger than that at the start of Covid telling everyone NOT to use buses and tubes. The 'welcome back' advert I have seen just does not do it.
- Many of the central London routes having proposed cuts have lost a lot of passengers due to a lack of tourism. I expect tourists will come back as borders open, so don't cut services now before we know what impact the return of tourism will have.
This is just a recipe for disaster. I will now stick my neck out with with an example, bus 113. It is being cut back to every 8-9 mins and re-routed from Oxford Circus to Marble Arch. This combination will reduce passenger number further and will mean a further cut to the 113 in due course. Paradoxically it will increase the numbers of passengers on the 13 as there will no longer be a benefit in waiting for 113 which goes down Oxford Street. I suspect it will also help the 139 as the last bus route from Baker Street going to Oxford Circus.
Forgive those in power for they know not what they are doing.
You are right that there are passengers who are apprehensive about risking being too near others in a bus who could be deterred from travelling by bus once frequencies are reduced. Withdrawing route 113 from Oxford Circus is particularly silly after route 13 was diverted away from the area.
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Post by Eastlondoner62 on Aug 8, 2021 12:59:15 GMT
For me it a lot boils down to wrong timing. Ultimately you can't have passenger demand and number of buses having a large mismatch, but our politicians need to understand this is not the time to be worrying about it, now is the time to maintain funding and service. Why? - It is well known that reducing service levels reduces the number of passengers. Now is the time to welcome passengers back not push them away. If you don't want a car led recovery, then don't reduce the bus service. There are consequences to reducing the bus (and tube) service
- No one yet knows where demand will finally lay following Covid. Only when that is established can services be properly aligned with demand and if need be reduced.
- Many people are happy to get back on buses and be in close proximity to others, but we have to recognise that many others are not. If you reduce the service leaving the remaining buses more crowded you may never get those passengers who at the moment need a bit more space back. If they then get back into cars, that won't be too clever.
- In order to bring passengers back there needs to be a proper marketing campaign, something bigger than that at the start of Covid telling everyone NOT to use buses and tubes. The 'welcome back' advert I have seen just does not do it.
- Many of the central London routes having proposed cuts have lost a lot of passengers due to a lack of tourism. I expect tourists will come back as borders open, so don't cut services now before we know what impact the return of tourism will have.
This is just a recipe for disaster. I will now stick my neck out with with an example, bus 113. It is being cut back to every 8-9 mins and re-routed from Oxford Circus to Marble Arch. This combination will reduce passenger number further and will mean a further cut to the 113 in due course. Paradoxically it will increase the numbers of passengers on the 13 as there will no longer be a benefit in waiting for 113 which goes down Oxford Street. I suspect it will also help the 139 as the last bus route from Baker Street going to Oxford Circus.
Forgive those in power for they know not what they are doing.
You are right that there are passengers who are apprehensive about risking being too near others in a bus who could be deterred from travelling by bus once frequencies are reduced. Withdrawing route 113 from Oxford Circus is particularly silly after route 13 was diverted away from the area. I think the 113 is carefully calculated, if I was to pinpoint a route that's very lightly used on Oxford Street from sheer observation through the week the 113 would certainly be topping the list. I think that in reality while there was an uproar initially, it was more so over the loss of the number 13 rather than specifically the link to Oxford Street. People from Finchley Road use the tube most of the time, so naturally its no surprise the bus suffers.
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Post by ADH45258 on Aug 8, 2021 13:11:11 GMT
When the 113 gets rerouted to Marble Arch next month, is the 159 also being cut back to Oxford Circus (& swapping stands)? Or will the 113 use a new stand at Marble Arch?
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Post by WH241 on Aug 8, 2021 13:15:43 GMT
For me it a lot boils down to wrong timing. Ultimately you can't have passenger demand and number of buses having a large mismatch, but our politicians need to understand this is not the time to be worrying about it, now is the time to maintain funding and service. Why? - It is well known that reducing service levels reduces the number of passengers. Now is the time to welcome passengers back not push them away. If you don't want a car led recovery, then don't reduce the bus service. There are consequences to reducing the bus (and tube) service
- No one yet knows where demand will finally lay following Covid. Only when that is established can services be properly aligned with demand and if need be reduced.
- Many people are happy to get back on buses and be in close proximity to others, but we have to recognise that many others are not. If you reduce the service leaving the remaining buses more crowded you may never get those passengers who at the moment need a bit more space back. If they then get back into cars, that won't be too clever.
- In order to bring passengers back there needs to be a proper marketing campaign, something bigger than that at the start of Covid telling everyone NOT to use buses and tubes. The 'welcome back' advert I have seen just does not do it.
- Many of the central London routes having proposed cuts have lost a lot of passengers due to a lack of tourism. I expect tourists will come back as borders open, so don't cut services now before we know what impact the return of tourism will have.
This is just a recipe for disaster. I will now stick my neck out with with an example, bus 113. It is being cut back to every 8-9 mins and re-routed from Oxford Circus to Marble Arch. This combination will reduce passenger number further and will mean a further cut to the 113 in due course. Paradoxically it will increase the numbers of passengers on the 13 as there will no longer be a benefit in waiting for 113 which goes down Oxford Street. I suspect it will also help the 139 as the last bus route from Baker Street going to Oxford Circus.
Forgive those in power for they know not what they are doing.
Quite honestly I think your closing comment is an insult to "those in power" who probably know a lot more than anyone on here does. Yes it is unfortunate that these cuts are happening just as restrictions are being gradually lifted but some of these cuts should have been made a over a year ago, especially the 521. All the empty buses that have been running every few minutes during peak hours on the 521 have to be paid for and the X68 should have been suspended as well. I suspect the aim of the Finchley Road reductions is to force more people onto the tube. Obviously services that have been reduced can be increased again at a later date should the demand warrant it although I suspect that main reason for doing it this way at the moment is to avoid the need for consultations. I'm not sure it's time yet for any 'welcome back' campaigns, if a surge back to public transport leads to a parallel surge in covid then who is going to be blamed for that? I've got friends in Sydney and I certainly wouldn't want to be in their situation. You say its a insult but then agree TfL was slow to react! Even with social distancing measures they could have made cuts much sooner than now. Making cuts now is the worse time. 2022 is going to much more normal than the last 18 months with lots of people returning to central London so the cuts will not be welcomed.
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Post by redbus on Aug 8, 2021 13:21:02 GMT
Quite honestly I think your closing comment is an insult to "those in power" who probably know a lot more than anyone on here does. Yes it is unfortunate that these cuts are happening just as restrictions are being gradually lifted but some of these cuts should have been made a over a year ago, especially the 521. All the empty buses that have been running every few minutes during peak hours on the 521 have to be paid and the X68 should have been suspended as well. I suspect the aim of the Finchley Road reductions is to force more people onto the tube. Obviously services that have been reduced can be increased again at a later date should the demand warrant it although I suspect that main reason for doing it this way at the moment is to avoid the need for consultations. I'm not sure it's time yet for any 'welcome back' campaigns, if a surge back to public transport leads to a parallel surge in covid then who is going to be blamed for that? I've got friends in Sydney and I certainly wouldn't want to be in their situation. Well said Certainly I had no intent to insult, and yes maybe they may know or more, they certainly should as they have far more data. This misses the point though. If you look at what is happening usage of cars is back up, tube and buses are not in the same way. The stated policy is to 'build back better' and reduce car usage and reducing bus and tubes will help increase car usage not reduce it. This is just one of many unfortunate consequences. If you are not concerned by these consequences of reducing tube and bus services, and budgets are all that matter, that's a different policy and you need to be content with those consequences. You can't both cut services and build back better. If however you really want to 'build back better' and reduce car usage then you need to put the funds in to do this and support bus and tube services. This should be temporary though, there should be a plan to attract people back to tubes and buses to help get out of the financial hole. There are other potential funding options, but that's for another post. As I said if demand never returns the services will have to be cut, but that is not now. There are some services like the 521 which are in a different position with respect to demand, but don't use that to tar the whole of central London. I do agree that many services should have been temporarily cut over a year ago but with a view to restoration when the country opens up. Instead services are maintained during Covid and then cut as the country opens up. Now is too late to cut with a view to increasing frequencies again if / when demand returns. People should be free to take buses or tubes, we should not be trying to enforce modal change in a free country. I would argue now is the time for a 'welcome back' campaign, surely the right time to do this is when restrictions end as they largely did on July 19. If you are not going to do this when restrictions are removed when are you going to do it? If you are worried about Covid returning then really you are saying that restrictions should not have been eased which is a different argument.
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Post by vjaska on Aug 8, 2021 13:26:31 GMT
For me it a lot boils down to wrong timing. Ultimately you can't have passenger demand and number of buses having a large mismatch, but our politicians need to understand this is not the time to be worrying about it, now is the time to maintain funding and service. Why? - It is well known that reducing service levels reduces the number of passengers. Now is the time to welcome passengers back not push them away. If you don't want a car led recovery, then don't reduce the bus service. There are consequences to reducing the bus (and tube) service
- No one yet knows where demand will finally lay following Covid. Only when that is established can services be properly aligned with demand and if need be reduced.
- Many people are happy to get back on buses and be in close proximity to others, but we have to recognise that many others are not. If you reduce the service leaving the remaining buses more crowded you may never get those passengers who at the moment need a bit more space back. If they then get back into cars, that won't be too clever.
- In order to bring passengers back there needs to be a proper marketing campaign, something bigger than that at the start of Covid telling everyone NOT to use buses and tubes. The 'welcome back' advert I have seen just does not do it.
- Many of the central London routes having proposed cuts have lost a lot of passengers due to a lack of tourism. I expect tourists will come back as borders open, so don't cut services now before we know what impact the return of tourism will have.
This is just a recipe for disaster. I will now stick my neck out with with an example, bus 113. It is being cut back to every 8-9 mins and re-routed from Oxford Circus to Marble Arch. This combination will reduce passenger number further and will mean a further cut to the 113 in due course. Paradoxically it will increase the numbers of passengers on the 13 as there will no longer be a benefit in waiting for 113 which goes down Oxford Street. I suspect it will also help the 139 as the last bus route from Baker Street going to Oxford Circus.
Forgive those in power for they know not what they are doing.
Quite honestly I think your closing comment is an insult to "those in power" who probably know a lot more than anyone on here does. Yes it is unfortunate that these cuts are happening just as restrictions are being gradually lifted but some of these cuts should have been made a over a year ago, especially the 521. All the empty buses that have been running every few minutes during peak hours on the 521 have to be paid for and the X68 should have been suspended as well. I suspect the aim of the Finchley Road reductions is to force more people onto the tube. Obviously services that have been reduced can be increased again at a later date should the demand warrant it although I suspect that main reason for doing it this way at the moment is to avoid the need for consultations. I'm not sure it's time yet for any 'welcome back' campaigns, if a surge back to public transport leads to a parallel surge in covid then who is going to be blamed for that? I've got friends in Sydney and I certainly wouldn't want to be in their situation. Usage on the X68 has been climbing steadily as we moved out of lockdown many months ago as reported by myself - suspending it would of seen this steadily increasing usage not happen at all. Usage of the bus network currently is around the 60-65% level it was pre Covid and yet there has never been a surge at any time due to people being on a bus. We have certain routes currently that have almost reached pre Covid levels in terms of usage so we shall if an issue arise that’s attributed to buses but I very much doubt it considering buses have routinely been safe to use throughout the pandemic. Considering many on here are saying we should work to returning back to normal as much as what normal now is, I do have to laugh that this presumably doesn’t include the bus network. Whether redbus meant it as an insult or not and judging by his previous posts, I don’t think he meant it like that at all, history shows he is right on more occasions than not that the higher uppers make poor decisions when it comes to public transport and buses in particular.
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Post by greenboy on Aug 8, 2021 13:51:53 GMT
Certainly I had no intent to insult, and yes maybe they may know or more, they certainly should as they have far more data. This misses the point though. If you look at what is happening usage of cars is back up, tube and buses are not in the same way. The stated policy is to 'build back better' and reduce car usage and reducing bus and tubes will help increase car usage not reduce it. This is just one of many unfortunate consequences. If you are not concerned by these consequences of reducing tube and bus services, and budgets are all that matter, that's a different policy and you need to be content with those consequences. You can't both cut services and build back better. If however you really want to 'build back better' and reduce car usage then you need to put the funds in to do this and support bus and tube services. This should be temporary though, there should be a plan to attract people back to tubes and buses to help get out of the financial hole. There are other potential funding options, but that's for another post. As I said if demand never returns the services will have to be cut, but that is not now. There are some services like the 521 which are in a different position with respect to demand, but don't use that to tar the whole of central London. I do agree that many services should have been temporarily cut over a year ago but with a view to restoration when the country opens up. Instead services are maintained during Covid and then cut as the country opens up. Now is too late to cut with a view to increasing frequencies again if / when demand returns. People should be free to take buses or tubes, we should not be trying to enforce modal change in a free country. I would argue now is the time for a 'welcome back' campaign, surely the right time to do this is when restrictions end as they largely did on July 19. If you are not going to do this when restrictions are removed when are you going to do it? If you are worried about Covid returning then really you are saying that restrictions should not have been eased which is a different argument. I'm sure you didn't mean it as an insult, it's just that it may have come across that way, obviously those in power sometimes have to make difficult decisions. I have to say that since covid nearly all my travel has been by car because obviously it's safer, I've used the train into Central London occasionally and a few short journeys on buses but that's about it and I would imagine it's been the same for many people. Unfortunately there is no silver bullet and who knows when it will be totally safe to do the things we did pre covid? I guess it's just tentative steps for the time being at least?
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Post by southlondonbus on Aug 8, 2021 14:02:04 GMT
It probably doesn't help that now "freedom" day effectively happened without the government actively encouraging people back to the office and may countries still not able to easily come and visit its much more of a drip feed of numbers returning.
However still even up to 60-65% return of passengers I'm assuming it's spread over the whole of London, even if 65% of passengers have returned to the 19 with its 'significant spare capacity' in 2018 its harder for TFL to justify expenditure on some central routes even if they reach 80-85% of pre pandemic levels.
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Post by vjaska on Aug 8, 2021 14:41:10 GMT
It probably doesn't help that now "freedom" day effectively happened without the government actively encouraging people back to the office and may countries still not able to easily come and visit its much more of a drip feed of numbers returning. However still even up to 60-65% return of passengers I'm assuming it's spread over the whole of London, even if 65% of passengers have returned to the 19 with its 'significant spare capacity' in 2018 its harder for TFL to justify expenditure on some central routes even if they reach 80-85% of pre pandemic levels. It is better than what some were predicting and there is nothing to suggest it won’t increase further - I think people forget that are many jobs that have nothing to do with offices where people must still go in and as people become more comfortable with going out again, more people will use transport providing TfL stop needlessly meddling. People continue to quote these “significant spare capacity” statements yet we know that TfL have no interest in buses beyond some improvements to Outer London and even then, in some cases, screw that up by making unwelcome changes to certain routes by moving the goalposts when they feel like. There is nothing to stop them quoting “significant spare capacity” if it suits their own agenda. Like it’s been said many times, cuts only cause further decline - this should be the time we start investing in transport not cutting.
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Post by cl54 on Aug 8, 2021 16:11:44 GMT
It is better than what some were predicting and there is nothing to suggest it won’t increase further - I think people forget that are many jobs that have nothing to do with offices where people must still go in and as people become more comfortable with going out again, more people will use transport providing TfL stop needlessly meddling. People continue to quote these “significant spare capacity” statements yet we know that TfL have no interest in buses beyond some improvements to Outer London and even then, in some cases, screw that up by making unwelcome changes to certain routes by moving the goalposts when they feel like. There is nothing to stop them quoting “significant spare capacity” if it suits their own agenda. Like it’s been said many times, cuts only cause further decline - this should be the time we start investing in transport not cutting. It is going to be difficult to work out how to serve retail areas where COVID-19 has led to the closure of so many stores. A walk down Oxford Street presents a very sorry picture. A large number of retail units are empty and the landlords are trying to get pop up retailers to use them starting at just a single day. Looking ahead a few months the Council wants to pedestrianise Oxford Street. Removing the 113 is just the start.
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Post by wirewiper on Aug 8, 2021 16:20:55 GMT
It is better than what some were predicting and there is nothing to suggest it won’t increase further - I think people forget that are many jobs that have nothing to do with offices where people must still go in and as people become more comfortable with going out again, more people will use transport providing TfL stop needlessly meddling. People continue to quote these “significant spare capacity” statements yet we know that TfL have no interest in buses beyond some improvements to Outer London and even then, in some cases, screw that up by making unwelcome changes to certain routes by moving the goalposts when they feel like. There is nothing to stop them quoting “significant spare capacity” if it suits their own agenda. Like it’s been said many times, cuts only cause further decline - this should be the time we start investing in transport not cutting. It is going to be difficult to work out how to serve retail areas where COVID-19 has led to the closure of so many stores. A walk down Oxford Street presents a very sorry picture. A large number of retail units are empty and the landlords are trying to get pop up retailers to use them starting at just a single day. Looking ahead a few months the Council wants to pedestrianise Oxford Street. Removing the 113 is just the start. The 94 is still proposed for withdrawal from Oxford Circus although I don't believe a firm decision on that has been made yet. The 159 will be removed from Oxford Street but will still serve Oxford Circus (stops on Regent Street). All other routes serving Oxford Circus will continue to do so in some form, including the 7 and 98.
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Post by southlondonbus on Aug 8, 2021 16:24:19 GMT
Thr 55 and 73 will terminate the other side of the crossroads as they come in from the TCR direction I belive and won't use the Holles Street stand.
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